1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [4][8] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [4][9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][10] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [4][11] - Methanol: Oscillating [21][22] - Urea: Oscillating strongly [4][23] - Ethylene glycol: Oscillating [16][17] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [13][14] - Short - fiber: Oscillating [18][20] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [19] - PP: Oscillating weakly [4][25][26] - Propylene: Oscillating [26][27] - Plastic: Oscillating weakly [4][24] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [14][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][16] - PVC: Oscillating cautiously and weakly [4][29] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [30] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and coal prices are both weak, dragging down the chemical industry. Urea rises against the trend due to improved export expectations. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating and weakly - biased mindset, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Accumulation pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. API data shows a decline in US crude and gasoline inventories last week. Globally, OPEC+ production increases have led to a counter - seasonal accumulation of on - land crude inventories. Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [8] 3.1.2 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price of 3500 may change from support to pressure. EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may drive the geopolitical premium to decline. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the attack on Russian refineries, high - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. EIA's adjustment of oil price and production expectations, along with increased supply and weak demand, contribute to the weak trend [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate weakly following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and increased supply pressure [11] 3.1.5 Methanol - Cautiously monitor long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts. Methanol futures prices oscillate. The port inventory has increased, and downstream olefins prices are under pressure. There may be long - position opportunities in the far - month due to expected overseas shutdowns [21][22] 3.1.6 Urea - Export expectations are good, but transactions are cautious. The improvement in China - India relations promotes the upward trend. The market sentiment was temporarily stagnant but was reignited by the news of China - India relations [22][23] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - Supply and demand both increase, and there is support at the lower price level. Domestic large - scale plants are restarting and having short - term shutdowns, and demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [16] 3.1.8 PX - There is short - term support at the lower level. The supply - demand pattern is relatively stable, and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [12] 3.1.9 PTA - It is looking for a direction in oscillation. The short - term trading logic lies in ongoing supply maintenance and expected demand improvement [13] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - It fluctuates following upstream costs. Supply - demand fundamentals change little, and sales have slightly recovered, but the increase is limited [18] 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited. The price mainly follows raw materials, and the processing fee is compressed [19] 3.1.12 PP - Good refinery profits suppress valuation, and PP oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, propane prices are low, supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - off - peak transition period [25][26] 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - PL follows PP to oscillate and decline in the short term. Supply is abundant, but downstream follow - up is insufficient [26] 3.1.14 Plastic - Fundamental support is limited, and plastic oscillates weakly. Oil prices are weak, and the supply side has pressure [24] 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - It has insufficient driving force and oscillates within a narrow range. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and downstream profits are declining [14][15] 3.1.16 Styrene - Peak - season stocking has begun, but demand is limited. There are some positive factors such as improved pure benzene market and downstream stocking, but negative factors like increased supply and limited demand are more prominent [15][16] 3.1.17 PVC - Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, and PVC is cautiously weak. Upstream autumn maintenance may reduce production, and export expectations are under pressure [29] 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Market sentiment is poor, dragging down the price. Fundamentals are marginally improving, but market sentiment is still affected [30] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32][33][35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text [36][48][60]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Overseas copper mines face disruptions in production or transportation. However, due to the Trump administration's substantial tariff hikes on multiple countries and the onset of the traditional off - season for domestic consumption, the global electrolytic copper inventory is accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold short positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,090 yuan, down 310 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, up 2,530 lots; the open interest was 169,930 lots, down 2,274 lots; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper inventory was 50,133 tons, up 15,754 tons, and the average price was 77,995 yuan, down 460 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,643.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 110,475 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 62.07 dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 124.71 dollars. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio on July 15 was 8.0977, down 0.031 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.5165 dollars, down 0.07 dollars; the total inventory was 238,264 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 500 billion and 50 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively through increasing the weekly benchmark bond auction size. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than expected, and the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [3]. Upstream Situation - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative but has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, decreased) compared to last week. High - quality scrap copper exports are restricted, and the spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper more economical, opening the scrap copper import window. Some overseas copper mines and smelters have production disruptions, while some domestic projects are in progress or planned to be put into production [3]. Downstream Situation - The daily processing fee of copper rods for power and cable in East China has decreased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of some copper product industries has changed, with some expected to decline and some to increase. Domestic electrolytic copper holders have no inventory pressure and are reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream buyers mainly make purchases for immediate needs or long - term contracts [3]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold short positions and pay attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 78,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 80,000 - 81,000 yuan for resistance; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 dollars for support and 9,800 - 10,000 dollars for resistance; COMEX copper at 5.0 - 6.2 dollars for support and 6.0 - 7.0 dollars for resistance [3].

研究中心能化团队 2025/07/10 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 7/03 68.8 577 850 4890 6890 73.08 273.0 253 95 85.7 78.2 33218 145 0.45 2025/0 7/04 68.3 579 840 4835 6885 78.11 261.0 256 139 82.8 78.2 33074 105 0.35 2025/0 7/07 69.6 577 842 4810 6770 66.98 265.0 213 52 82.8 78.2 36428 95 0.40 2025/0 7/08 70.2 587 847 4800 6760 72.30 260.0 175 50 82.8 78.2 45812 90 0.35 2025/0 7/09 70.2 598 850 4750 6700 83.76 252.0 107 33 82.8 78.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-03 欧洲极端天⽓来袭，能化延续震荡整理 欧洲正经历一场强烈的热浪，由于高压系统持续盘踞，法国和德国的 卫生当局已发布红色警报，法国的核电站运营已经受限，莱茵河水位也降 至历史偏低水平。往年的高温天气都通常会引发天然气、柴油的发电能源 的走高，当前欧美中质馏分库存普遍低位，这可能从情绪和边际需求上提 振中质馏分和原油价格，油化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 国内商品市场周三整体有支撑，光伏玻璃业和钢铁行业传出了"反内 卷"倡议，并可能后期采取实际行动集体减产，这带来了黑色板块的大幅 反弹，对化工品也略有提振。化工本身变化寥寥，芳烃系列品种，苯乙烯 和PTA都出现了基差的逐步走弱；聚烯烃的基差本身就偏弱，本周以来也 仍在下滑。商品整体氛围的偏强对化工略有提振，但自身供需并未实质性 改变。 原油：地缘再有波澜，油价大幅攀升 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松，PG盘面或弱势震荡 沥青：沥青期价震荡，等待利空发酵 高硫燃油：高硫燃油利空仍待发酵 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油下跌 甲醇：内地港口分化，甲醇震荡 尿素：国内供强需弱格 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 5 801 2440 2458 2740 2610 2720 2780 261 340 163 30 -867 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2610 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2610 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2610 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2445 2380 2615 2610 2605 2705 258 340 218 175 -762 日度变化 0 -8 -35 -35 0 -115 -50 0 0 0 5 50 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping below 10,000 yuan per ton and reaching a recent low of 9,975 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.84% decrease [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is facing an increase in production as major enterprises resume operations after maintenance, leading to rising supply pressure [1] - Demand remains weak, with organic silicon manufacturers implementing maintenance and production cuts, while polysilicon producers are operating at 30-40% capacity, limiting demand growth for industrial silicon [1][2] - Overall demand for industrial silicon has not shown significant growth, providing limited support for prices [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - Inventory levels are high, exceeding 900,000 tons, with expectations of continued accumulation due to increased supply and stagnant demand, which exerts downward pressure on prices [2] - The cost of raw materials, such as silicon coal, has decreased, reducing the cost support for industrial silicon, leading to potential losses for producers in the southwest region [2] - Despite the current price drop, which has breached some companies' cost lines, the potential for further significant declines is limited, with prices expected to remain within a low range in the short term [2]