库存：截止12月25日：内地累库1.28，港口累14.05万吨 【观点】因地缘扰动，甲醇盘面大幅走强，全天成交尚可。港口方面，上周浮仓顺利卸船，卸货较多， 叠加倒流大部分区域关闭，港口大幅累库，伊朗地区因限气大量产能停车，开工率已降低，远月进口缩 量预期显著增强。12月港口仍面临累库压力，但预计次年一季度供需平衡表有望转向去库。内地来看， 当前内蒙古地区转单价格环比走低，主要受高产量与厂库累积影响。供应端，煤炭价格下跌使企业利润 修复，产量预计维持。需求端暂无亮点，价格以窄幅震荡为主。后续关注港口实际到港减少后，库存去 化情况。 【现货方面】现货成交：2170-2190，现货成交：05-30到-33 【供需库存数据】 供应：截止12月25日，全国开工77.99%（+0.36%），非一体化开工70.71%（+0.49%） 需求：MTO开工率85.66%（-0.34%），宝丰、诚志降负 【策略】再次关注MTO05缩（等驱动，海外发运减缓） 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] Core Views - The current fundamental pattern of oil prices is still dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil price center [3] - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, but do not change the oversupply situation; the market is expected to remain weak [4] - The commercial inventory of asphalt has weak de - stocking, and cost factors provide bottom support [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventory may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical conflicts lead to pulse - type price increases, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists, and the main tone of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors such as the slowdown of loading in the Middle East and Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and sanctions cause short - term market disturbances [4] - The improvement of refinery profit and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports may boost the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock, but high inventory pressure is significant [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to gradually recover; demand for marine fuel is weak and the weak trend is difficult to reverse [4] Asphalt - Last week, the commercial inventory of asphalt had weak de - stocking, and the factory inventory ended the de - stocking trend since mid - October and started to increase [5] - The US - Venezuela situation has affected the supply of heavy raw materials, and cost factors provide bottom support for asphalt [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 12月23日，乙二醇增仓下行，下跌3.02%，主要原因分析如下： 1、10月以来库存快速累积，EG中期预期不佳。在四季度EG高位供应下，主港库存从9月底的40万吨， 快速累积到近90万吨，平均每个月近20万吨，同时当前下游隐性库存也累积到了高位。随着港口库存的 回升，场内货源流动性增加。另外投产压力偏大，宁夏畅亿新装置近期已投产，1月巴斯夫湛江80万吨 项目也将投产，同时近几月进口压力较大，供应压力下1~2月累库压力较大，合计在50万吨附近，需要 进一步减产平衡。 2、价格低位EG减产力度不及预期，近期负荷重新回升至7成以上。近期随着正达凯60万吨、中海油惠 州40万吨等装置重启，EG负荷重新回升至7成以上高位，后续华谊以及榆林化学等装置计划重启，而检 修计划偏少，1月负荷或还将进一步提升。 3、长丝计划减产：终端织造订单和开工均在下滑，近期在PTA强势上涨下，长丝工厂亏损加剧，涤丝 三主流大厂已确定本周三落实新增POY减产10%，FDY延续前期的减产15%，同步安排监督检查。 当前EG主要矛盾在于供应端，国内外 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Treat unilaterally with a low-range oscillation mindset; opportunistically participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [10] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Investment clients should short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated options to protect spot exposures [10] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilaterally focus on short - term trading, wait and see for the medium - to long - term, and liquidate previously recommended hedging short positions [10] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [10] 2. Core Views - The steel price is oscillating in a low - level range, waiting for new drivers. The short - term macro - expectation may be in a vacuum, and the industry contradictions are not obvious. Steel output is expected to gradually decline [2][3] - The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is poor, and the price is under pressure. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the oversupply pattern continues [4][6] - The expectation of coke price cuts is increasing, and the futures price is pricing in 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The current decline may be near the end, and the next round of downstream restocking is expected to start around mid - December [7][8] - The fundamental situation of iron ore is still weak, with clear upward pressure. The inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures: On November 21, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3098 yuan/ton with a decline of 5 yuan (- 0.16%); HC2605 closed at 3274 yuan/ton with a decline of 1 yuan (- 0.03%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3057 yuan/ton with an increase of 2 yuan (0.07%); HC2601 closed at 3270 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Spot: On November 21, Shanghai螺纹 was 3230 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; Tianjin螺纹 was 3190 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 yuan; Guangzhou螺纹 was 3420 yuan/ton with no change. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Market situation: The price is oscillating in a low - level range. The short - term macro - expectation is in a vacuum, and the industry contradictions are not obvious. The steel output is expected to gradually decline [2][3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental situation: As the steel price is under pressure and the steel mill profit shrinks, the direct demand has weakened significantly. The alloy plant profit is poor, but the output is still high, and the supply - demand surplus pattern persists [4][6] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: The domestic market sentiment has weakened, and the expectation of coke price cuts has increased. The coking coal spot auction prices mostly declined. The port - traded quasi - first - class coke was quoted at 1480 yuan (weekly - on - weekly - 50), and the coking coal price index was 1378.8 (weekly - on - weekly - 27.3) [8] - Futures: This week, the macro continued to fluctuate. The black sector fell after speculation about the environmental supervision team's entry time. Coking coal and coke led the decline. The current decline may be near the end, and the next round of downstream restocking is expected to start around mid - December [8] Iron Ore - Fundamental situation: The short - term arrival at ports has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipments are not greatly affected. Under the pressure of molten iron, the inventory will continue to accumulate. The operation should be short - selling on rallies [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

Core Viewpoint - In the second half of this year, the zinc market is experiencing wide fluctuations in prices, supported by tightening raw material supply and increasing demand from domestic refineries [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc supply has become more relaxed due to the resumption of overseas mines, with refinery raw material inventories available for about 28 days and processing fees continuously recovering, leading to improved refinery profits of approximately 2000 CNY/ton [1] - Monthly production from refineries has increased from around 500,000 tons to over 600,000 tons, with some refineries starting winter storage in mid-September, further boosting demand [1] - The price ratio between Shanghai zinc and London zinc remains low, with refineries favoring the purchase of domestic ore due to cost-effectiveness, while imports are primarily through long-term contracts [1] - As temperatures drop in the north, some mines will enter seasonal maintenance, potentially tightening supply into the first quarter of next year [1] Processing Fees and Profitability - As of November 7, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has decreased to 2650 CNY/metal ton, down 32.05% from the peak in September, while the processing fee for imported zinc concentrate has also declined to 98.37 USD/dry ton, down 17.16% from October's high [2] - The latest announcement from the China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group indicates that the processing fee guidance for imported zinc concentrate will be between 105-120 USD/dry ton until the end of Q1 2026 [2] - The shift in processing fees has led to a transfer of profits back to the mining sector, with zinc concentrate production profits rising to 5398 CNY/metal ton, a 52.06% increase compared to September, while refined zinc production profits have dropped to -1338 CNY/ton, a decline of 1172 CNY/ton [2] Inventory Trends - London zinc inventory has been decreasing since late April, reaching 37,800 tons by November 12, a decline of 80.65% from the peak in April and 84.79% year-on-year [4] - Domestic inventories continue to accumulate due to sufficient raw materials and good production profits, with refined zinc production from January to October totaling 5.6863 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.09% [6] - Downstream enterprises are primarily purchasing zinc ingots based on demand and price dips, leading to a continuous accumulation of inventory [6] Market Structure and Future Outlook - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement permanent rules to address liquidity risks in near-month contracts, indicating a systematic response to structural risks in the market [7] - The current state of Shanghai zinc futures shows "pressure above and support below," with expectations of slight downward price movement in the short term due to high inventory levels and weak demand, while tight raw material supply and reduced refinery production expectations provide strong support for prices in the medium to long term [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]

Core Insights - The iron ore market is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with short-term trends dependent on policy stimuli and production cuts from steel mills [1] Supply Side - Australia shipped 14.149 million tons of iron ore to China this week, a decrease of 454,000 tons week-on-week - Brazil's shipments to China were 7.269 million tons, down by 220,000 tons week-on-week - Overall shipment volumes have slightly declined [1] Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of 163 steel mills is at 90.33%, a decrease of 0.24% week-on-week - Daily pig iron production is 2.4095 million tons, down by 5,900 tons week-on-week - Demand remains relatively stable [1] Inventory Levels - Imported iron ore port inventory stands at 135.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5077 million tons week-on-week - The average daily throughput at 45 ports is 3.27 million tons, a decrease of 112,800 tons week-on-week - Total inventory at steel mills is 89.827 million tons, down by 634,600 tons week-on-week, indicating a slight overall increase in inventory [1] Market Dynamics - Iron ore futures have been on a downward trend, primarily due to the shift in fundamentals towards strong supply and weak demand - Global major mining shipments are at seasonal highs, leading to ample port arrivals and inventory accumulation, which exerts price pressure [1] Steel Industry Challenges - The downstream steel industry is facing difficulties, with steel mill profits being squeezed and operating near breakeven - Some steel mills are planning maintenance and production cuts, leading to a decline in daily consumption and cautious procurement, which weakens demand support [1] Macro Environment - The overall market sentiment is bearish, influenced by changes in China-U.S. trade relations, raising concerns about global growth and commodity demand, which casts a shadow over iron ore prices [1] Short-term Outlook - The iron ore market is under pressure from three main factors: ample supply, weakening demand, and insufficient macro confidence - Short-term trends will depend on stimulus policies and production cuts from steel mills - Iron ore main contract 01 has recently seen a slight decline, with a short-term reference range of 750 to 800, indicating high volatility and the need for risk management [1]