Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices continued to fluctuate at a high level above 100,000 yuan/ton, with the center of copper prices moving slightly lower. The core contradiction in the copper market currently lies in the short - term supply - demand mismatch between high inventories and downstream demand. The inventory accumulation trend has spread globally. In the future, short - term copper prices may maintain high - level fluctuations, with core focus on the inventory inflection point and the intensity of downstream consumption release [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review and Outlook - Macro aspect: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed copper prices. China's latest government work report has released positive signals, providing long - term policy support. Supply aspect: The key export channel in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is blocked, but copper mine production is not affected, and the tight situation at the mine end remains. Demand aspect: Downstream enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises has steadily increased, with the degree of spot discount alleviated [2] 2. Factors to Watch - The factors to watch include the intensity of downstream demand recovery, geopolitical changes, and inventory changes [3] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change Amount | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 101000 | 101970 | - 970 | - 0.95% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | - 60 | - 250 | 190 | 76.00% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 56 | - 51.06 | - 4.94 | - 9.67% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 102050 | 103090 | - 1040 | - 1.01% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 284325 | 253700 | 30625 | 12.07% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 425145 | 391529 | 33616 | 8.59% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | short tons | 597938 | 601541 | - 3603 | - 0.60% | Weekly | [3] 4. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio, with data sources including Boyii Master and Steel Union Data [5][6][10] 5. Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents data on copper concentrate forward spot prices, rough copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, and the price change trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, with data from Steel Union Terminal [15] 6. Demand Situation Analysis - The report includes data on 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, refined copper rod trading volumes, Yangshan copper bonded area premiums, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premiums, with data from iFinD and Steel Union Terminal [17][18][20] 7. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report shows data on electrolytic copper spot inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges, with data from Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment, suppressing copper prices. There is a risk of a second - round correction due to continuous inventory accumulation. However, when the financial market has priced in risks and inventory accumulation ends, the market may enter a stage of rising risk appetite. The strategy is to maintain a layout at low prices [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina futures AO2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The price of Shanghai aluminum AL2604 closed at 24435 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.88%. The price of aluminum alloy AD2604 also declined. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The price of alumina is expected to be weakly stable [1][2]. Nickel - LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices both declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore price and nickel - iron price are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is a demand for rigid restocking. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of light - position trial long near the cost line and monitor the inventory of primary nickel [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has risen, suppressing copper prices. The inventory has increased, and there is a risk of a second - round correction. However, there may be an opportunity when the market sentiment improves [1]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures all showed a weak trend. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore and nickel - iron prices are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is demand for restocking [3][4]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the price of scrap copper increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased, and the price of lead concentrate also increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [5]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the price of imported nickel decreased. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [8]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [8]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [16][17][18][21][23][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [31][32][33][34][35][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [44][45][46][47][48][49]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in the non - ferrous metal industry, have won many awards, and have in - depth research in different fields of non - ferrous metals [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the steel sector**: The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and a rapid increase in inventory from a low level. Although the impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices on black commodities is limited, it has a certain boost to the overall market sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak, and the expectation for the fundamentals is pessimistic. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, indicating strong support below. Due to the current low valuation, the downside space may be limited [1]. - **For the iron ore sector**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills remains stable, and the daily average hot metal output has rebounded from a low level. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot Roll - **Market situation**: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the sharp rise in crude oil prices has a limited impact on black commodities but boosts the overall market sentiment. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and increasing inventory [1]. - **Operation suggestions**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [1]. - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and the previous week. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have also decreased [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The basis and spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Production**: The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased slightly, and the production of electric - arc furnace steel mills has changed, with the output of electric - arc furnace rebar increasing significantly [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties has increased, while the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly. The inventory of billets in the Tangshan area has increased [1]. - **Trading volume and apparent demand**: The trading volume in the spot market has decreased, and the apparent demand has increased [1]. - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts for rebar has decreased, while that for hot - rolled coil has increased [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products remains stable, and the hot metal output has rebounded from a low level. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset, avoid chasing up or selling down. When the futures price is oscillating and building a bottom, try to go long at a low position with a light position [3]. - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Basis and spread**: The basis and futures monthly spread of iron ore have changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Shipment and freight**: The shipment volume from Australia has decreased, while that from Brazil has increased. The freight rates and exchange rates have also changed [4]. - **Arrival and inventory**: The arrival volume of iron ore has increased slightly, the daily average port clearance volume has decreased, and the port inventory has continued to rise [4]. - **Production**: The output of domestic iron ore mines has decreased [4]. - **Futures warehouse receipts**: The number of futures warehouse receipts has decreased [4]. 3.3. Industry News - **Steel production restrictions**: During the important national meetings in 2026, steel enterprises are required to implement phased emission reduction control, with some steel enterprises having new blast furnace overhauls and production reduction plans [6]. - **Coking coal production**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, and the daily output and inventory of raw coal have also increased [6]. - **Real estate policy**: The draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market and build a new real - estate development model [6]. - **Iron ore procurement**: Chinese state - owned iron ore purchasers have expanded the procurement restrictions on new seaborne iron ore goods from BHP due to a long - term contract dispute [8]. - **Coking plant profitability**: The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants across the country is 17 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [8]. - **Glass inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has continued to increase, approaching a three - year high [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the disk rebound. In the medium - term, glass demand expectation remains weak. In the short - term, prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the policy news from the Two Sessions and the external situation [2]. - The core contradiction of soda ash is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not improved. In the short - term, it maintains a volatile and strong trend, and a low - buying strategy is advisable. In the medium - term, whether it can break through the upper space depends on the policy news from the Two Sessions and whether the high inventory can be continuously reduced [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Today, the glass main contract opened high and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term volatile signal. The pressure is near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 192,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 57,661 lots. The intraday high was 1065, the low was 1038, and the closing price was 1055, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.76% compared with yesterday's settlement price [1]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 79.637 million heavy cases, a month - on - month increase of 3.629 million heavy cases or 4.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days are 35.3 days, 1.5 days more than the previous period. The inventory in each region has increased comprehensively, and the total inventory is approaching the three - year high [1]. Soda Ash - The main contract of soda ash opened low and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term volatile and strong signal. The intraday pressure is near today's high, and the intraday support is near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 31,390 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest increased by 20,265 lots. The intraday high was 1243, the low was 1196, and the closing price was 1225, up 15 yuan/ton or 1.24% compared with yesterday's settlement price [3]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons or 0.92% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash is 1.0273 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons, and heavy soda ash is 0.9199 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3300 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 52,800 tons or 2.79%. Among them, light soda ash is 1.0273 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28,800 tons; heavy soda ash is 0.9199 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.7599 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 187,300 tons or 10.64% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The polyethylene (PE) futures market has experienced a cooling sentiment, with prices under pressure and a weekly decline of 2.88%, closing at 6812 points, influenced by weakening crude oil prices and a supply-demand imbalance as the Chinese New Year approaches [5][23]. Supply Side - The supply side has seen a slight decrease in the number of shutdowns, with a total of approximately 370,000 tons of production capacity affected by maintenance. The operating rate for the PE industry is at 85.91%, an increase of 0.56% week-on-week, while weekly production reached 712,400 tons, up by 0.64% [8][26]. - China remains a net importer of PE, with a decrease in foreign offers and low purchasing intentions from importers. The cumulative PE export volume is 503,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9,510 tons, while imports have decreased to 5,446,300 tons, down by 237,700 tons year-on-year [10][28]. Demand Side - Demand is entering a seasonal lull as the Chinese New Year approaches, with downstream factories shutting down, leading to a decrease in overall operating rates to 33.73%, down by 4.03% [11][29]. - In the agricultural film sector, the operating rate is at 30.18%, down by 4.38%, while the PE packaging film sector is at 38.82%, down by 3.25%. The PE pipe sector has an operating rate of 23.67%, down by 4.16% [13][31]. Inventory - Domestic PE inventory has shown a significant accumulation in production enterprises, with a total inventory of 379,700 tons, an increase of 56,700 tons week-on-week. Trade inventories have slightly decreased to 23,200 tons [14][32]. Cost Side - The cost side remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices. The upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may influence oil prices, but current trends show limited support for PE costs. The volatility in propylene and methanol futures prices has also decreased [16][34]. Summary - In the short term, the PE market is expected to lean towards a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with high production rates and accumulating inventories. The market sentiment is cautious due to the upcoming holiday and potential geopolitical risks, suggesting a recommendation for reduced positions ahead of the holiday [19][37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices may experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent price changes of -4.02% for LME copper, -3.45% for SHFE copper, and -1.33% for COMEX copper. The report anticipates a decrease in price volatility and potential high-level fluctuations in the near term [5] - The report highlights that the Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including copper concentrate in national reserves, which could positively impact copper prices in the medium to long term [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that inventory accumulation may lead to short-term price fluctuations, with SHFE aluminum prices dropping by 7.74% to 23,400 CNY/ton and LME aluminum prices down by 2.20% to 3,063 USD/ton [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate, suggesting a possible upward price trend [5] - Cobalt raw material tightness persists, with a recommendation to monitor downstream replenishment after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides macroeconomic insights, including a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI in the US for January at 52.6, and lower-than-expected ADP employment figures [9] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a decline, with the Shenwan non-ferrous sector down 8.51%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.24 percentage points [11] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - LME copper prices fell by 4.02%, SHFE copper by 3.45%, and COMEX copper by 1.33%. Inventory levels increased, with LME copper stocks up 4.74% and SHFE copper stocks up 6.83% [24] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices decreased by 2.20%, while SHFE aluminum prices dropped by 7.74%. The report notes a significant increase in SHFE aluminum inventory by 13.09% [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices fell by 2.82%, and SHFE lead prices decreased by 3.05%. LME zinc prices dropped by 1.93%, with SHFE zinc prices down by 6.95% [45] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices decreased by 13.93%, and SHFE tin prices fell by 18.32%. LME nickel prices dropped by 3.71%, while SHFE nickel prices decreased by 8.98% [56] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw a significant decline, with lithium carbonate down 16.20% to 134,500 CNY/ton and lithium hydroxide down 16.14% to 132,500 CNY/ton [73] 3.2 Cobalt - The report notes a decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.19% to 25.88 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices down 9.60% to 405,000 CNY/ton [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term shock [1] Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of soda ash is still the continuous accumulation of inventory caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the pattern of supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not improved. The continuously increasing inventory exerts pressure on the market. Although there is some support in the short term due to anti-involution sentiment and rising energy prices, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises will gradually take holidays and stop production, and the pre-festival demand may further weaken. The short-term market may fluctuate, but attention should be paid to the possibility of weakening in the later stage. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main contract of soda ash opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend during the day. The 120-minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a short-term shock signal. The short-term pressure during the session was near the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the support was near the lower track. The trading volume decreased by 47,834 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 7,849 lots. The intraday high was 1,205, the low was 1,184, and the closing price was 1,190, down 22 yuan/ton (1.82%) from the previous settlement price. [1] - **Spot Market**: It showed a weak and stable shock. The operation of enterprise equipment was stable, and the output of individual enterprises increased slightly. The supply remained at a high level. The downstream demand was average, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high, mainly maintaining the just-in-time demand. [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,250, and the basis was 60 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5, the domestic soda ash output was 774,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8,800 tons (1.12%). Among them, the output of light soda ash was 360,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was 414,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7,100 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 83.25%, compared with 84.19% last week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.94%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of ammonia-alkali method was 88.21%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78%; the capacity utilization rate of combined-alkali method was 77.23%, a month-on-month increase of 2.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 86.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.85%. [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,581,100 tons, an increase of 20,700 tons (1.33%) compared with Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 835,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,500 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 746,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,200 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it increased by 36,900 tons (2.39%). Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 835,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,900 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 746,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,878,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29,770 tons (15.85%). [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 737,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.98%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 95.23%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.82%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices for just-in-time demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high. [3] - **Profit**: According to the statistics of Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (double tons) of the combined-alkali method was -29 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia-alkali method was -88.8 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated upward, resulting in a slight increase in costs. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly with inventory accumulation and weak spot sales. The double - silicon market has insufficient supply - demand contradictions and is oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market price remained stable with mediocre sales. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.064 million heavy cases, a 0.95% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and production is expected to decrease. Rising coal prices have pushed up costs, and the inventory pressure on glass factories is not high, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply - demand is still loose, and the industry faces pressure without significant demand improvement. Attention should be paid to cold repairs of production lines and industrial policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the market was cautious. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5811 million tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. After some alkali plants completed maintenance, supply increased. Considering new projects and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, the production profit of soda ash enterprises needs to be suppressed. Attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon manganese futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment fluctuated with the futures, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 5,590 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,720 - 5,770 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals have improved, and there is an expected increase in hot metal production, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, mainly for rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,850 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. With the resumption of steel mills, demand is expected to improve marginally. However, the overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and power price policies in production areas [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term shock rating for the soda ash market [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The core contradiction in the soda ash market is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not improved. In the short term, the price may maintain a shock operation, but in February, as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises gradually shut down for holidays, the demand may further weaken, and the price may be adjusted weakly [4] 3. Summary according to the Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened high and went low, with a weak shock during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing horn, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday pressure was near the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and the short - term support was near the lower track. The trading volume decreased by 756,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 12,315 lots. The intraday high was 1215, the low was 1187, and the closing price was 1201, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.15% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market remained weakly stable. The enterprise's equipment was operating stably, and the reception of new orders was average. Downstream enterprises had a certain raw material reserve, with poor stocking willingness, and mainly purchased at low prices as needed [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 49 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash output was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The overall supply was abundant [2] - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5604 million tons, an increase of 16,200 tons or 1.05% compared with last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 837,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 722,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,800 tons. The inventory was at a historical high, and the inventory accumulation trend was obvious [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. The pre - holiday stocking was insufficient, and there was no large - scale centralized inventory replenishment [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is still increasing. The core contradiction is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not improved. In the short term, the price is supported by anti - involution sentiment, but the increasing inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term disk price may maintain a shock operation. However, in February, as the Spring Festival approaches and downstream enterprises gradually shut down for holidays, the pre - holiday demand may further weaken, and the price may be adjusted weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4]

Group 1: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate price increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene concentrate rose by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton [3] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures (2605) rose by 1.94% to 146,200 CNY/ton, although it faced a limit down on Friday due to increased regulatory scrutiny and profit-taking by speculative funds [3] - Demand for lithium remains strong, with phosphate iron lithium production in December reaching 404,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices may experience high volatility in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME copper down by 0.50% [1] - Significant inventory increases were reported, with LME copper inventory rising by 3.31% to 144,000 tons [1] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47% [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices are expected to face high volatility due to inventory accumulation, with domestic aluminum inventory increasing by 3.1% to 736,000 tons [2] - The price of alumina fell by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum price rose by 0.83% to 24,200 CNY/ton [2] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum may increase due to the ongoing trend of "aluminum replacing copper" in the home appliance sector [2] Group 4: Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with MB cobalt increasing by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.31% to 450,000 CNY/ton [4] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban, implementing a quota system instead, which may lead to a structural tightness in cobalt supply [4] - The continuation of cobalt export quotas until March 2026 is expected to impact domestic raw material availability [4]