高盛构建的另类经济指标模型预计，即将公布的10月官方非农就业人数可能出现约5万人的负增长。该 行指出，其新建的裁员追踪模型显示，当前裁员趋势已超过疫情前水平；职位空缺与劳动力市场紧张度 指标持续下行，表明实际状况较截至8月的官方数据更为疲弱。此外，对罗素3000指数成分公司2025年 第三季度财报电话会议的文本分析显示，"裁员"一词被提及频率显著上升。 由于近期联邦政府经历历史上持续时间最长的一次停摆，美国劳工统计局（BLS）未能如期发布10月份 非农就业报告。在此背景下，ADP数据、初请失业金人数估算值、WARN通知及企业裁员公告等私营指 标成为政策制定者、经济学家及投资者评估经济状况的关键依据。 截至10月18日当周，首次申请失业救济金人数为23.2万人，与9月中旬水平大致持平；续请失业金人数 为195.7万，略高于前一周的194.7万。尽管劳工部暂停发布周度常规报告，但通过在线数据库持续提供 未经季节性调整的州级初请数据，经济学家据此结合预先发布的季节调整因子进行全国估算。 民众对就业前景的担忧同步上升。一项于10月23日至25日开展的民意调查显示，55%的美国在职人员表 示担心失业，反映出劳动力市场信 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights a significant increase in layoffs across U.S. companies, with a 55% year-on-year rise in announced layoffs, totaling approximately 946,426 individuals from January to September 2025 [2][3]. - Major companies like Microsoft and Amazon have announced substantial layoffs, with Microsoft cutting 15,000 jobs and Amazon 14,000 jobs, primarily affecting white-collar workers due to the impact of AI [2][3]. - The layoffs are attributed to various factors, with "market and economic conditions" being the most cited reason, accounting for 20% of the total layoffs, particularly in sectors affected by tariffs and economic policies [2][3]. Group 2 - UPS announced a significant layoff of 48,000 employees due to a decline in package processing from China, influenced by previous government policies [3]. - Procter & Gamble is also laying off 7,000 employees globally due to rising tariffs affecting consumer sentiment [3]. - Although AI is not yet the primary reason for layoffs, companies are beginning to use it as a justification for workforce reductions, with a notable focus on re-education and business adjustments related to AI [3][4][5]. Group 3 - The trend of layoffs is seen as somewhat disconnected from economic conditions, with AI being increasingly viewed as a valid reason for workforce reductions [4]. - Companies like Accenture and PwC are also implementing layoffs, with Accenture planning a significant restructuring involving AI-related employee re-education [3][5]. - The CEO of Amazon acknowledged the potential for reduced workforce due to AI efficiency improvements, although he later clarified that current layoffs were not directly caused by AI [5].

Core Insights - The number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in October increased by 175.3% year-over-year, reaching the highest level in seven months [1] Summary by Category Layoff Trends - The October layoffs represent a significant rise compared to the same month last year, indicating a potential shift in the employment landscape [1] - This surge in layoffs may reflect broader economic challenges faced by companies [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Core Points - Amazon announced a reduction of approximately 14,000 corporate jobs, which represents 4% of its 350,000 corporate employees [1] - The layoffs aim to improve decision-making efficiency and reallocate resources to core business areas [1] - Affected employees will receive notifications on the same day, with support including up to 90 days of internal transfer opportunities, priority hiring assistance, severance pay, and health insurance [1] Employee Statistics - Amazon's total global workforce is approximately 1.56 million, with the majority being warehouse workers, while around 350,000 are corporate employees [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "optimization" wave in the global automotive industry, highlighting the challenges companies face in balancing employee rights, corporate image, and long-term competitiveness [2][28]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Major automotive companies are announcing significant layoffs, with a total of 133,100 positions being cut across various firms, including Mercedes-Benz (30,000), Audi (7,500), and Ford (5,000) [3][4]. - The optimization trend is affecting the entire automotive supply chain, with companies like ZF Friedrichshafen and Bosch also planning substantial job cuts [4]. Group 2: Employee Compensation and Support - Mercedes-Benz is offering a voluntary departure plan with compensation up to 400,000 RMB, which has sparked discussions about employee treatment during layoffs [4][5]. - Volvo has allocated 1.5 billion SEK (approximately 1.134 billion RMB) for its optimization plan, providing an average of 380,000 RMB per departing employee [5]. Group 3: Global Comparison of Layoff Policies - Different countries have varying approaches to employee compensation during layoffs, with South Korea requiring severance pay based on tenure and France offering compensation based on years of service [8][9]. - In the UK, employees must work for at least two years to qualify for severance pay, while in Canada, the compensation is based on years of service with a minimum payout [9][10]. Group 4: Legal and Compliance Considerations - Companies must navigate legal requirements when implementing layoffs, including providing adequate notice and compensation as mandated by local labor laws [21][40]. - The article emphasizes the importance of compliance to avoid legal challenges and reputational damage, suggesting that companies should embed compliance into their decision-making processes [41]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Companies are encouraged to adopt transparent and humane optimization strategies, including clear communication and support programs for affected employees [32][36]. - The article suggests that businesses should focus on retaining key talent and maintaining morale among remaining employees to ensure long-term operational efficiency [27][38].

Core Insights - Microsoft is undergoing workforce optimization, particularly affecting its Azure cloud business team [1][3] - The new severance package offers N+4 compensation, differing from the previous N+7 plan, and does not include additional signing bonuses [3] - Employees have the option to relocate to Australia; refusal to accept this option may result in termination [3] - This restructuring is part of a broader trend, marking the sixth round of layoffs since May, with over 15,000 employees affected across key departments [3] Company Actions - Microsoft communicated the changes through an email titled "Important Business Update" to its Shanghai team [1] - The company emphasizes that organizational changes are a necessary and routine part of business management [3] - Microsoft plans to continue prioritizing investments in strategic growth areas to support customers and partners [3]

Group 1 - Recent international oil price decline has led to multiple major energy companies initiating layoffs [1][7] - ExxonMobil announced a global reduction of over 2,000 jobs, representing approximately 3% to 4% of its total workforce [3] - The layoffs primarily affect Europe and Canada, with 1,200 positions cut in the EU and Norway by the end of 2027 [3] Group 2 - Canadian Imperial Oil, in which ExxonMobil holds a 70% stake, will reduce 900 jobs, accounting for 20% of its workforce, saving approximately 150 million CAD (around 760 million RMB) annually [3] - ExxonMobil has undergone significant restructuring since 2019, with a projected workforce of 61,000 by the end of 2024, nearly a 20% reduction since 2019 [5] - Other companies in the industry, such as Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and BP, have also announced plans to lay off thousands of employees [7]

RatingDog解读：最近制造业景气改善，关键在于新订单的加速增长。需求基本面改善、企业致力促销、新品发布，共同推动最近新业务总量的增长，并且创下2月份后最高增速。同时，新出口订单量也在3月后首次录得增长，虽然增速仅算轻微。新接业务量上升，带动制造业产量录得3个月来最快增速。调查样本企业表示，金属和肉类价格走高，导致整体费用上升。当月投入成本涨幅为10个月来最高，但仍低于长期均值。虽然新业务和经营活动稳健增长，但9月份仍然延续用工收缩。据反映，在人员离职和企业裁员背景下， 当月用工录 得2024年4月后最急剧收缩率。综合PMI创下2024年6月后最强劲增速。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dell is continuously evaluating its business development situation and optimizing operational management through restructuring its market and sales processes to maintain global competitiveness and provide quality service to customers [1] Group 1: Business Operations - Dell has initiated a layoff plan affecting some employees in China, particularly in the EMC storage division and Client Solutions Group (CSG) located in Shanghai and Xiamen [1] - This layoff marks the third round of job cuts in recent months [1] - Dell has not provided a specific response regarding the scale of the layoffs, indicating that the market direction will need to be closely monitored [1]