投资者正屏息等待英伟达北京时间周四凌晨发布的第三季度财报。此前文件显示，彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）旗下对冲基金已清仓英伟达全部持仓，受此影 响，该芯片制造商股价周一下跌。 AI基础设施开发投资的激增，是今年美国科技股创纪录上涨的主导主题——芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）上月成为全球首家市值突破5万亿美元的公司—— 但近期市场对这类支出可持续性的担忧升温，已导致华尔街股市出现回调。 以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数（IXIC）周二下跌1.2%，本月累计跌幅已超5%。 科技股陷入困境 随着市场对人工智能（AI）支出热潮可持续性的担忧加剧，多数全球基金经理认为企业正处于过度投资状态。 美国银行本月调查显示，净20%的基金经理表示企业投资支出过高——这是2005年有数据记录以来，该观点首次成为多数共识。 "这一突变源于对AI资本支出热潮规模及融资问题的担忧，"美国银行分析师表示。 投资者平均现金配置比例降至投资组合的3.7%，美国银行指出，从历史数据来看，这一水平出现后，未来1至3个月股市往往会下跌，国债则会上涨。 科技支出热潮也在重塑信贷市场：今年美国公司已发行超过2000亿美元的债券，为其人工智能相关项 ...

Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment is oscillating between optimism and caution, with fund managers showing increased stock allocations while cash levels have dropped to 3.7%, triggering a "sell signal" [1][2][13] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Risks - Fund managers' stock allocation has reached its highest level since February 2025, but cash holdings have decreased, raising concerns about overly bullish positions potentially hindering risk assets [2][13] - 45% of respondents view the "AI bubble" as the biggest tail risk, a significant increase from the previous month, while 54% consider "longing the seven giants" as the most crowded trade [2][8] - 63% of respondents believe current stock market valuations are too high, indicating a growing concern about the sustainability of the market rally [4][10] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite improved macro sentiment, with 53% of investors predicting a soft landing for the economy, there are warnings about excessive corporate investment, a phenomenon not seen in 20 years [5][10] - 43% of investors see broad AI productivity improvements as the most bullish catalyst for 2026, while 26% view a slowdown in AI capital expenditure as a significant bearish factor [10][20] Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - In November, investors significantly increased allocations to healthcare (net 40% increase), emerging market stocks (net 36% increase), and bank stocks (net 36% increase) [17] - Conversely, UK stocks saw the fastest decline in allocation since October 2022, and consumer discretionary stocks experienced the largest monthly reduction since 2005 [17] Group 4: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to 2026, 42% of investors expect international stocks to be the best-performing asset class, with 30% anticipating the Japanese yen to perform best among currencies [19][20] - 45% of investors expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to be in the 4.0%-4.5% range by the end of 2026, while 34% predict gold will trade between $4000 and $4500 per ounce [20]

市场情绪正处于一个微妙的十字路口。美银的调查显示，尽管投资者对经济前景的乐观情绪升温，但对人工智能驱动的投资狂热及其潜在泡沫的担忧也在 同步加剧，同时，一个长达20年未见的警示信号——企业过度投资——已经出现。 据追风交易台消息，美银18日发布的全球基金经理调查显示，基金经理们的股票配置升至2025年2月以来的最高水平，但现金持仓降至仅3.7%，触发该 行"卖出信号"，市场担忧过度看涨的仓位可能成为风险资产的阻力。 然而，乐观情绪的背后是日益增长的风险警报。45%的受访者将"AI泡沫"视为当前市场的最大尾部风险，这一比例较上月显著上升。同时，"做多七巨 头"以54%的得票率重回"最拥挤交易"的榜首，凸显了市场资金在大型科技股上的高度集中。 尽管宏观情绪本月有所改善，全球增长预期年内首次转正，53%的投资者预测经济将软着陆，但创纪录的63%受访者认为股市当前估值过高。美银警告， 这一转变的背后，是对AI领域资本支出热潮的规模及其融资方式的普遍担忧。若无美联储降息等新的催化剂，风险资产可能面临回调压力。 AI泡沫成头号风险，20年来首现企业"过度投资"警告 美银调查显示，在经历了数月的市场狂热后，基金经理对AI领 ...