近日，美银以研究报告的形式，发布了一份全球基金经理信心大调查，238位手握5690亿美元资产的投 资者接受了这份调查。 调查结果显示，受调查的基金经理们宏观乐观度飙升至2021年8月以来的最高，现金持有量创纪录低至 3.3%，AI泡沫、私人信贷风险已悄然成为悬在市场上空的"达摩克利斯之剑"。 01 明年宏观预测：软着陆成共识 每当基金经理集体乐观的时候，究竟意味着机遇，还是风险？ 美银的这份调查显示，基金经理们对2026年全球经济的信心彻底回暖。 57%的基金经理看好全球经济"软着陆"——温和增长+通胀可控；另有37%的基金经理认为经济继续"起 飞"——持续强劲增长；仅3%的基金经理担忧经济"硬着陆"。 全球增长预期升至4年高点，企业盈利预期同步飙至2021年8月以来峰值，41%的受访者认为亚太企业盈 利将走强。 流动性环境被评为2021年9月以来最佳，69%的投资者押注凯文.哈西特将出任下任美联储主席。 02 AI与黄金：风险与拥挤交易 尽管基金经理对宏观经济大面积乐观，但大家并没有失去风险意识，37%的受访者认为风险可能来自 于"AI泡沫"。 40%的受访者认为存在信贷危机隐患：私人信贷是系统性信贷事件的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices, but concerns about a weakening US job market, potential future interest rate cuts by the Fed, uncertainty in China-US trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks, support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 948.84 yuan/g, down 38.05 yuan from the previous day and 18.45 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 87,610, with a position of 254,754, down 186 from the previous day and up 5,052 from the previous week [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,381 yuan/10g, down 378 yuan from the previous day and 600 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 2,347,356, with a position of -182,550 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,116.60 US dollars/ounce, down 21.90 US dollars from the previous day and 43.00 US dollars from the previous week; trading volume was 396,022, with a position of 357,370, down 4,708 from the previous day and 16,561 from the previous week [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 2.17 US dollars from the previous day; trading volume was -66,532, with a position of 122,583, down 3,620 from the previous day and 7,608 from the previous week [1] Important Information - The secondary lending market is in turmoil, and PrimaLend has filed for bankruptcy. The Fed is considering reducing bank capital requirements from 19% to a minimum of 3% [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, the second-longest on record. Unemployment may rise temporarily. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [1] - The US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3,900 - 4,100 and resistance levels around 4,383 - 4,778; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 930 and resistance levels around 1,000 - 1,100; for London silver, support levels around 42 - 48 and resistance levels around 57 - 68; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 9,800 - 10,800 and resistance levels around 13,000 - 14,800 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The relief of the US credit crisis and the expectation of the end of the government shutdown may put pressure on precious metal prices. However, factors such as the weakening employment performance in the US leading to an increased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, tight inter - bank liquidity potentially causing the Fed to end balance - sheet reduction by the end of 2025, the proactive fiscal expansion expectations of many global countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and intractable geopolitical risks provide long - term support for precious metal prices [3]. - It is expected that precious metal prices may be adjusted. Investors are advised to wait for price pull - backs before establishing long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The US outstanding public debt scale reached $3.80 trillion, an increase of $102.7 billion from the previous week. The net issuance of US federal government treasury bonds in Q3 2025 was $964.5 billion, and the net issuance in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter. The CBO's 2025 forecast shows that making the expanded additional tax credits permanent may increase the fiscal deficit by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035, and repealing health insurance - related provisions may increase the fiscal deficit by $1.4 - $37.5 billion from 2026 - 2035 [10]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $4.1 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased from the previous week to $2.99 trillion, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased to $347.9 billion, and the US Treasury cash account increased to $852 billion. The US Congress has not passed a new temporary appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown has entered the fourth week, with 4,108 federal employees laid off [11][13]. - The Fed's rediscount loan to commercial banks decreased to $6.018 billion from the previous week, the seasonal loan increased to $0.49 billion, and the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) expired on March 11 and dropped to $0 [14]. - Due to the relief of the US credit crisis, the Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) suspended operations on October 17, after having a scale of $15.1 billion on October 15 and 16 [15]. - The medium - and long - term inflation expectations implied by US Treasury bonds decreased, but the one - year and five - year inflation expectations of consumers in September were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, remaining flat or higher than the previous values. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September consumer - end inflation CPI data on October 24 [16][17]. - Concerns about the weakening of the US employment market and the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and end of balance - sheet reduction led to a decline in the yields of short -, medium -, and long - term US Treasury bonds [19]. - The difference between long - and medium - term US Treasury bond yields was positive, but the difference between long - and short - to medium - term Treasury bond yields narrowed due to expectations of Fed interest rate cuts [22][23]. - The US Office of Financial Research (OFR) Financial Stress Index increased from the previous week to - 1.8610, mainly due to the Fed's continuous balance - sheet reduction and the US Treasury's reconstruction of the cash account, which tightened inter - bank market liquidity [24]. Second Part: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased quarter - on - quarter. The weekly rate of all commercial bank loans and leases was 0.01%, with different changes in various types of loans such as business and industrial loans, residential real estate loans, etc. [29][31]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales increased to 5.9% from the previous week, indicating stable consumer spending [34]. - The US MBA Mortgage Application Activity Index decreased to 317.2 from the previous week. The 15 - year and 30 - year fixed mortgage rates decreased to 5.52% and 6.27% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in August increased to 4.8 million units [37]. - As of September 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 218,000, lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims was 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The ADP non - farm private employment in September was - 32,000, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating concerns about the weakening of the US employment market [40]. - The differences in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany and Japan decreased due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different monetary policy expectations of central banks in different countries [41][43]. - The euro - to - dollar exchange rate began to rise, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate began to weaken due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different economic and political situations in different countries [44]. - The volatility of the US S&P 500 index decreased, while the volatility of the gold ETF increased [46]. Third Part: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from the previous week [55]. - The total inventory of gold in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased from the previous week, with the COMEX gold futures inventory decreasing and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures inventory increasing [59][60]. - The differences between domestic and foreign gold futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign gold futures or spot prices [64]. - The London - COMEX gold basis was negative and at a relatively low level, while the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange was positive and at a relatively high level. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [66]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to take profit on last week's long positions in the Shanghai gold monthly spread at high prices [69]. - The 1 - month London silver lease rate began to decline, and the supply shortage in the London silver market may be alleviated [71][73]. - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased quarter - on - quarter, and the iShare Silver ETF holdings increased from the previous week [75]. - The total inventory of silver in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased from the previous week [77][79]. - The differences between domestic and foreign silver futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign silver futures or spot prices [82]. - The overseas and Shanghai silver bases were positive and at relatively high levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [83]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the Shanghai silver near - and far - month contract spread [85]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was higher than the 25% and 50% quantiles of the past five years respectively. Investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - silver ratio" cautiously [87]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the expected increase in oil production by OPEC +, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - oil ratio" cautiously. The "gold - copper ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was also much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - copper ratio" cautiously [89].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Uncertainties in China-US trade negotiations support precious metal prices. Concerns about the weakening US job market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction. Geopolitical conflicts in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, expansion expectations of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks globally support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term, but potential negative factors such as the alleviation of the US credit crisis and the end of the federal government shutdown should be watched [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Gold was 973.70 yuan/gram, with a change of - 22.20 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of spot沪金T+D was 71850.00, and the position was 258232.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 4267.90 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 39107098.30 troy ounces. The holding amount of SPDR gold ETF was 41.50 tons [1] - **Silver**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Silver was 11779.00 yuan/ten grams, and the trading volume of spot沪银T+D was 1249250.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 47.52 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 506467618.32 troy ounces. The holding amount of iShare silver ETF was 487.19 tons [1] Important Information - The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The White House economic advisor said the US government shutdown might end this week. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party signed a coalition - governing document, and Takamachi Sanae is likely to become the Japanese prime minister. Vietnam's real estate market has a "trillions - level" problem [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to lay out long positions after price corrections. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 and the resistance level around 4383 - 4778. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 930 and the resistance level around 1000 - 1100. For London silver, watch the support level around 42 - 48 and the resistance level around 57 - 68. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9800 - 10800 and the resistance level around 13000 - 14800 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant stock price declines of Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp highlight emerging concerns over credit quality and potential systemic risks in the U.S. regional banking sector due to fraudulent commercial mortgage loans [1][3][5]. Group 1: Bank Performance and Financial Impact - Zions Bancorp reported a full provision for approximately $60 million in unpaid debts related to two commercial and industrial loans, which will impact its Q3 2025 financial statements [2]. - The losses from these loans represent about 3.5% of Zions Bancorp's projected net revenue of $3.1 billion for 2024 [2]. - Both banks have initiated legal actions against borrowers for fraud, indicating a serious breach of trust and potential systemic issues in credit approval processes [3][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Comparisons - The stock prices of Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp fell by 13% and 11% respectively, marking one of the worst trading days for regional banks since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023 [1][5]. - Investors are drawing parallels between the current situation and the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis, which was primarily driven by liquidity issues rather than credit quality [5][6]. Group 3: Risk Factors and Industry Concerns - The fraudulent activities reveal significant weaknesses in the risk management frameworks of regional banks, particularly in their due diligence processes for commercial loans [3][7]. - The current economic environment, characterized by high interest rates and a cooling commercial real estate market, has led to increased default rates on commercial mortgages, putting additional pressure on regional banks [7]. - Regional banks hold approximately 80% of the U.S. commercial mortgage loans, making them particularly vulnerable to credit quality deterioration [6][5].

Group 1 - The risk of a systemic crisis is still controllable, and the probability of a repeat of the "subprime mortgage crisis" is low. Large banks and the core financial system remain stable [1][3] - Recent financial "blow-up" events in the U.S. include the bankruptcy of Tricolor on September 10, FirstBrands on September 28, and significant credit fraud and bad debt issues at Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp on October 16 [1][2] - The S&P regional bank index fell by 6.3% on October 16, indicating that risks are concentrated in regional banks, while large banks and other sectors were less affected [1] Group 2 - The current private credit risks in the U.S. differ fundamentally from those during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, with the latter being driven by interest rate hikes leading to asset-liability mismatches and liquidity crises [2] - The current financial risk events are characterized by economic slowdown leading to deteriorating credit quality, which exposes issues such as financial fraud and high-leverage financing [2][3] - There is a concern that the "credit blow-up chain" may not be over, with potential for further risk escalation due to the underlying weaknesses in the financial market [3] Group 3 - If risks escalate, asset prices may be impacted, particularly in the banking and financial sectors, with expectations of initial declines followed by potential recoveries in the stock market [5] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are expected to trend downward, especially if the Federal Reserve accelerates rate cuts in response to rising risks [5] - Gold prices are likely to rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid heightened risk sentiment [5]

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline, with major indices in the US, China, Japan, and Europe all falling, indicating a widespread market downturn [1][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.96%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by over 3% [6] Banking Sector Concerns - There are growing concerns about a potential credit crisis following the collapse of regional banks in the US, which has heightened fears among investors [1][5] - Reports suggest that internal bank employees have criticized lax loan approval processes, leading to increased risks of fraud and financial instability [5] Regulatory Environment - The market is facing regulatory scrutiny, with discussions around the "Price Law Amendment Draft" aimed at standardizing market practices, yet the ongoing market chaos raises questions about the effectiveness of these regulations [3][8] - The contradiction between regulatory intentions and market realities is evident, as regulatory bodies attempt to impose order while market manipulation continues [3] Consumer Impact - The potential credit crisis could adversely affect ordinary consumers, leading to difficulties in obtaining loans and higher interest rates, which may dampen consumer confidence and economic activity [6][8] - Public sentiment reflects anxiety about financial stability, with individuals considering the need to save more cash in light of economic uncertainties [6] Investment Strategies - In light of the current market volatility, a cautious approach is advised, emphasizing the importance of maintaining liquidity and avoiding impulsive trading decisions [8] - Investors are encouraged to stay informed about policy changes and the banking sector's risks, as these factors are closely tied to personal financial security [8]

Group 1 - Multiple positive signals support the market rebound, with external environment improvements and upcoming domestic policy events providing favorable conditions for recovery [1][2] - The easing of trade tensions, indicated by comments on tariffs, alleviates concerns over US-China trade friction, which had previously suppressed market sentiment [1] - The upcoming important meeting and the drafting of the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to clarify future industry development directions, potentially stabilizing market expectations for economic growth [1] Group 2 - Technical indicators show a significant low divergence across multiple time frames, suggesting a potential market bottom and increasing the likelihood of a rebound [1] - The market's downward momentum has slowed, with signs of stabilizing investor sentiment and attempts to "bottom fish," particularly in the technology sector [1] - The recommendation for investors is to focus on previously oversold mainstream sectors like technology and new energy, rather than chasing all stocks indiscriminately [2] Group 3 - A combined strategy of index investing and short-term trading for individual stocks is advised, with index ETFs suitable for dollar-cost averaging due to their long-term policy support [2] - Investors should remain cautious of potential "black swan" risks and set stop-loss levels to manage downside exposure effectively [2] - The overall assessment indicates a significant probability of market rebound, particularly in previously oversold sectors, while emphasizing the distinction between a rebound and a trend reversal [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant stock price declines of Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp highlight emerging credit risks in the U.S. banking sector, particularly related to commercial mortgage fraud, raising concerns about a potential credit crisis [2][5][6]. Group 1: Bank Performance and Financial Impact - Zions Bancorp reported a full provision for approximately $60 million in unpaid debts related to two commercial loans, which represents about 3.5% of its net revenue for 2024, estimated at $3.1 billion [3][4]. - Western Alliance Bancorp also indicated involvement in similar fraudulent loan activities and has initiated legal action against the same borrower [5]. Group 2: Risk Assessment and Market Reaction - The market reacted negatively, with Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp's stock prices dropping by 13% and 11% respectively, marking one of the worst trading days for regional banks since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023 [2][6]. - Analysts express that while the current situation may be an isolated incident, the potential for similar credit risks to spread remains a concern due to the reliance of regional banks on commercial mortgage loans and small business credit [2][6]. Group 3: Broader Implications for the Banking Sector - The incidents at Zions and Western Alliance reflect systemic issues in credit quality and risk management within regional banks, particularly regarding due diligence and oversight of non-depository financial institutions [5][7]. - The ongoing high-interest rate environment and cooling commercial real estate market have led to increased default rates on commercial mortgages, putting additional pressure on regional banks, which account for 80% of the U.S. commercial mortgage market [7][8].

Group 1 - The core issue driving the recent downturn in the US stock market is the renewed concerns over credit, particularly following the significant stock price drops of regional banks Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, which both fell by over double digits [2] - The S&P Regional Banking Select Industry Index experienced a sharp decline of 6.3%, marking the largest single-day drop since April, driven by the fallout from the regional banks [2] - The total market capitalization of 74 large US banks decreased by over $100 billion in a single day due to the widespread sell-off in bank stocks [2] Group 2 - The recent loan defaults by Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp have reignited fears of a potential financial crisis reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis, with investors worried about the implications of relaxed financial regulations in recent years [3] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warned that the current credit defaults may only be the tip of the iceberg, suggesting that more issues could arise in the US credit market [3] - The recent turmoil in the banking sector follows a series of failures earlier in 2023, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which had already raised concerns about the stability of the US banking system [3]