一、政策东风下的银行狂欢 最近朋友圈里都在讨论银行股，农行、浦发这些大块头居然能涨40%，简直让人怀疑人生。我那个做会计的老同学昨天还问我："银行股都破净了这么多 年，怎么突然就香了？"这话让我想起三年前白酒崩盘时，同样一群人喊着"估值见底"冲进去接飞刀的场景。市场永远在教我们做人，只是大多数人总学不 会。 监管层这轮组合拳打得漂亮。保险新会计准则这个"魔术棒"轻轻一挥，就让险资对银行股的持仓暴增126亿。仔细看条款才明白玄机：持股超5%且股价低于 净资产时，差价能直接计入当年利润。平安人寿8次举牌邮储、招行H股的疯狂举动，在会计规则下突然变得合情合理。 天风证券那737亿增量资金的预测更让人心惊。在利率下行的年代，4%-6%的股息率就像黑暗中的萤火虫，大资金不扑上去才怪。但普通投资者后知后觉 时，龙头银行早已涨了四成。这让我想起彼得·林奇那句名言："机构投资者总是在散户反应过来前完成布局。" 二、估值幻觉与认知陷阱 很多人把"低买高卖"挂在嘴边，却陷入估值陷阱不能自拔。三年前白酒市盈率跌到25倍时，多少大V喊着"历史大底"？结果呢？估值这东西就像哈哈镜，站 在不同位置看到的景象天差地别。 我用的那套量化系统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant growth in the first quarter, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 15.25%. However, increased uncertainty in the global capital markets has led to recommendations for investors to seek "safe havens" in high-dividend companies, which are expected to provide stable returns [1] Group 1: High Dividend Stocks - High dividend stocks in the Hong Kong market are concentrated in sectors such as energy, banking, public utilities, and certain state-owned enterprises. As of May 7, 2023, 49 out of 83 blue-chip stocks had a dividend yield exceeding 4%, with Orient Overseas International and China Hongqiao exceeding 10% [2] - Orient Overseas International plans to distribute a total dividend of $1.95 per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 13.48% [2] - China Hongqiao's total dividend for 2024 is projected to be HKD 1.61 per share, significantly higher than the previous year's HKD 0.63, marking a historical high [2] Group 2: Energy Sector Performance - The energy sector, particularly coal and oil, has shown strong performance, with companies like China Petroleum, CNOOC, and Sinopec having dividend yields above 7%. China Shenhua has a dividend yield of 8.14% and plans to distribute at least 65% of its net profit to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 [3] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector is also a hub for high dividend stocks, with HSBC and Hang Seng Bank yielding 5.93% and 6.25%, respectively. Other major banks like China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also exceed 6% in dividend yield [4] - The stability of dividend payouts from mainland banks and their relative valuation discount compared to A-shares enhance their appeal in the Hong Kong market [4] Group 4: Public Utilities and REITs - Public utility companies such as MTR Corporation and CLP Holdings maintain stable dividend yields between 3% and 5%. Additionally, real estate investment trusts like Link REIT offer a dividend yield of 6.61% [4] Group 5: Market Conditions and Dividend Premium - The current liquidity environment in China is favorable, with risk-free rates falling below 3%, making high-yield assets scarce. The dividend yield of the Hang Seng High Dividend 30 Index is 7.0%, outperforming the broader market by 3.8 percentage points [5][6] - The Hang Seng High Dividend 30 Index has consistently outperformed the Hang Seng Index since 2008, demonstrating defensive capabilities during market downturns [6] Group 6: Caution Against "High Dividend Traps" - Experts warn of "high dividend traps," where high dividend yields may mask underlying risks such as declining performance or increasing debt. Companies may resort to high dividends to attract investors while facing deteriorating financial health [8][9] - Traditional high dividend investment strategies may lead to pitfalls, including the "dividend trap" and "valuation trap," which can hinder achieving the desired combination of high dividends, high returns, low volatility, and low drawdown [9][10] Group 7: Multi-Dimensional Screening for High Dividend Stocks - Investors are advised to evaluate high dividend stocks using multiple financial metrics rather than solely relying on high dividend yields. This includes analyzing average dividend yields over five years and expected dividend rates to identify sustainable dividend-paying companies [10][11] - The use of profitability indicators such as ROE and net profit growth rates can help select companies with stable earnings and lower volatility [11]