Group 1 - The discussion highlighted the differences in monetary policy transmission mechanisms between China and other major economies, particularly under low interest rate policies [1] - In the U.S., the financial market structure allows effective transmission of low interest rate policies through direct financing markets, which boosts investment and consumption [1] - In contrast, China's financial market structure is characterized by a high proportion of indirect financing (70%), leading to weaker transmission effects of low interest rates through bank loans [1] Group 2 - Current issues facing the Chinese economy include compressed net interest margins for banks and insufficient lending enthusiasm despite effective credit demand in the real economy [2] - Although policy rate cuts can stimulate the economy to some extent, pessimistic expectations about future economic prospects hinder the anticipated positive effects of these policies [2] - There is a need to enhance the transmission channels of monetary policy by optimizing and innovating monetary policy tools, particularly to address structural issues [2]

债务周期的约束也使得低利率成为必然选择。目前，中国家庭、企业和地方政府的杠杆率处于较高水平，债务驱动的增长模式逐渐难以为继。高杠杆意味着 高偿债压力，为了避免债务危机的爆发，维持低利率可以降低债务成本，减轻各部门的偿债负担。以地方政府为例，在基础设施建设等领域积累了大量债 务，低利率环境有助于缓解其财政压力，确保项目的顺利推进和债务的可持续性。 货币政策的导向同样明确指向低利率。2024年，中国人民银行多次实施降准降息操作，推动市场利率下行。进入2025年，政府工作报告明确提出"适时降准 降息"，释放出强烈的政策信号。货币政策的适度宽松旨在为实体经济创造更加宽松的流动性环境，降低企业融资成本，刺激投资和消费，促进经济的稳定 增长。通过降低利率，企业可以以更低的成本获取资金，扩大生产规模，增加就业机会，从而推动经济的复苏和发展。 当然，中国长期维持低利率也面临一些潜在风险和挑战。通货膨胀风险不容忽视，如果货币宽松过度，可能引发物价的快速上涨，从而迫使央行收紧货币政 策，提高利率。国际经济形势的不确定性也会对中国利率产生影响，全球主要经济体的利率波动、贸易摩擦以及地缘政治冲突等，都可能改变中国的外部经 济环境，进 ...