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必须继续借旧换新,否则大家就别玩了,特朗普向美联储主席发“最后通牒”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-30 04:22
Group 1 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very, very bad," with President Trump expressing anxiety and calling for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to lower government borrowing costs [1] - Trump is focusing on tariff policies to alleviate fiscal pressure, proposing a 10% tariff on all imports, which could generate over $400 billion in government revenue and significantly reduce the $1.83 trillion fiscal deficit [3] - The proposed tariffs are seen as a core strategy for the Trump administration to increase revenue, with the 10% tariff rate becoming a key indicator of his economic policy [3] Group 2 - Trump's tariff plan faces multiple challenges, including the Federal Reserve's commitment to independent monetary policy and bipartisan criticism regarding inflation risks and potential global trade retaliation [4] - Analysts suggest that while Trump's tariff strategy may boost fiscal revenue in the short term, it could lead to higher domestic prices, weaken corporate competitiveness, and provoke retaliation from trade partners, exacerbating the current economic imbalance [6] - The U.S. economy is currently in a "high debt, high deficit, low growth" predicament, and pushing for a tariff war may further complicate economic stability, with significant uncertainty about the future direction of the economy [6]
李迅雷专栏 | 为何我一直看好黄金
中泰证券资管· 2025-04-23 06:06
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a better long-term investment compared to holding US dollars, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [2][3][15]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal measures such as issuing debt, which leads to central banks purchasing government bonds and consequently results in monetary expansion [6][9]. - The US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing has resulted in significant debt burdens, with over 60% of its total assets being US Treasury bonds [7][9]. - The general trend of currency devaluation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating by over 90% since the Bretton Woods system collapsed [11][15]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation has increased, particularly as central banks have been accumulating gold due to concerns over the US dollar's credibility [23][25]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves by approximately 12.76 tons in March 2025, continuing a trend of accumulation that has seen a total increase of about 56.93 tons since 2024 [25][26]. - Historical data shows that gold prices have experienced significant increases during periods of economic uncertainty, with a notable rise of nearly 30% in the first four months of 2025 [32]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin, while often touted as a potential replacement for gold, has shown extreme volatility, with prices fluctuating from $742 in November 2016 to a peak of $69,000 in November 2021, highlighting its instability as a currency [17][18]. - Unlike gold, which has a long-standing history as a stable store of value, Bitcoin lacks the same level of stability and is viewed more as a speculative asset [18][20]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article suggests that the world is entering a phase of low growth and high volatility, where gold serves as an appropriate investment due to its properties of value preservation and risk mitigation [21][22]. - The ongoing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate the demand for gold as a safe haven asset [22][32].