中国最近的贸易反制措施只持续了十天，结果就令加拿大国内陷入了极大的混乱与困境。这个月的初期，中国针对加拿大的油菜籽推出了保证金制度，目的 在于防止加方的倾销行为。这一举措直接带来了加方的加税，令本就处于困境中的400万吨油菜籽出口遭受了重大打击，几乎失去了继续向中国市场出口的 机会。回顾去年，加拿大对中国电动汽车征收的关税时，中国方面便曾"善意提醒"他们此举可能带来的问题，但加方对此并未重视。今年，加拿大又对中国 的钢铁产品征收关税，这次中国终于不再忍让，采取了全面反制的策略。 这种反制措施显然产生了效果。在14号时，加拿大总理卡尼公开表示愿意与中国进行"建设性谈判"。然而，时间转眼已过去一周，但从中国方面却没有任何 进展，这让加方的农民们愈加心急如焚。他们听闻一个让人沮丧的消息：中国正在从澳大利亚紧急采购油菜籽，而首批货物就有十几万吨在向中国的港口运 输。这一消息犹如一阵冷风，令加拿大感受到了压力，如果这样拖延下去，他们的订单将面临失去的风险。可想而知，这对加方构成的威胁是巨大的，毕竟 这涉及到260多亿人民币的商机，而加拿大每年有65%的油菜籽依赖对华出口，今年的形势已显得极其严峻。 中国方面迟迟未作反应 ...

Group 1 - China has implemented significant measures against Canada and Japan following a new tariff truce with the US, signaling that countries compromising Chinese interests for US relations will face consequences [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has decided to impose a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8% on canola seed imports from Canada, based on a year-long investigation that confirmed dumping practices [1][4] - Canada's response to the anti-dumping measures has been one of disappointment, yet they acknowledge the retaliatory nature of China's actions after previously imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum [1][4] Group 2 - The canola seed industry is crucial for Canada, with annual exports nearing CAD 5 billion, and the sudden high deposit has nearly blocked their market access to China, causing prices to plummet [4] - China's countermeasures extend beyond canola seeds, imposing high deposits on halogenated butyl rubber from Canada (40.5%) and Japan (30.1%), and initiating a new anti-dumping investigation on Canadian pea starch [6] - Japan's cooperation with the US in various sectors, including reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and imposing semiconductor export restrictions, has led to China's retaliatory actions, despite Japan's attempts to maintain a friendly stance [8] Group 3 - China's actions serve as a warning to other nations, emphasizing the need for careful consideration when choosing between US interests and Chinese relations, as demonstrated by the cases of Canada and Japan [10][13] - The overarching message from China is clear: countries that attempt to sacrifice Chinese interests for US dealings will face similar repercussions as Canada and Japan [13]

Group 1 - Canada has faced economic and diplomatic isolation due to its alignment with the US against China, particularly during trade disputes [1][5][7] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary ceasefire in tariffs, but Canada has been targeted by China for its previous support of US policies [3][5] - China's anti-dumping investigations into Canadian products, such as pea starch and canola seeds, indicate a significant economic backlash against Canada [3][5][8] Group 2 - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Trudeau, has failed to adjust its foreign policy in light of deteriorating US-Canada relations, leading to increased economic pressure on Canadian farmers [7][8] - Calls from local governments and business leaders in Canada for a shift in policy towards China highlight the growing discontent with the current administration's approach [7][8] - The situation serves as a warning to other nations about the consequences of provoking major powers and the importance of maintaining balanced diplomatic relations [8]

| 贵金属日评20250805: 欧盟对美国贸易反制措施暂停6个月,美联储下半年或降息三次 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-29 | 收盘价 | 781. 42 | 770. 72 | 10. 70 | 9. 98 | 771.44 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 271828.00 | 189185.00 | 219932.00 | 82, 643. 00 | 51, 896. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 217696.00 | 218768. 00 | 212407.00 | -1, 072. 00 | 5, 289. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 35889.00 | 35745.00 | 31263.00 | 144.00 | 4, 626. 00 | 上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 775.55 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 47,492 and an open interest of 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 3.28, and the basis was - 2.33 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 9,039 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of - 78,029 and an open interest of 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 17, and the basis was - 40 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 132,941 and an open interest of 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 53.50, and the basis was - 69.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 44,731 and an open interest of 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 0.22, and the basis was 0.32 [1] - **Gold and Silver Price Ratios**: Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 83.90; Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 86.32; New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 91.56; London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.72 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 514.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was 68.68 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 66.24 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was - 7.50 yuan/ton. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding closing prices and changes [1] 3.2 News and Information - **Gold - related News**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1] - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Due to possible significant downward revisions or far - below - expected non - farm payrolls in July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing expectations of rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025, the Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still have a rate hike expectation by the end of 2025 [1] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,150 - 3,250 and resistance around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, support is around 730 - 760 and resistance is around 800 - 850. For London silver, support is around 34 - 38 and resistance is around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, support is around 8,500 - 8,700 and resistance is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The four major stock index futures contracts all rose on August 4, 2025. The overall trend of stock index futures is in a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of the underlying indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on August 4, with increases of 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively. The corresponding futures contracts also rose, with IF rising 0.52%, IH rising 0.54%, IC rising 0.92%, and IM rising 1.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22,338 lots, 12,314 lots, 11,855 lots, and 23,743 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7,234 lots, 4,835 lots, 3,294 lots, and 1,172 lots respectively [2] - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies, with some being positive and some negative, reflecting different market expectations [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For most futures contracts, both long and short positions of the top 20 members showed certain changes. For example, in the IF2508 contract, the long - position increase was - 3303, and the net long - position change was - 6233; the short - position increase was - 2978, and the net short - position change was - 5185 [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6] - **Important Drivers**: The EU will suspend two trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. The A - share market showed an upward trend on August 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.5%. The market volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [6]

据报道，欧盟将暂停对美国的贸易反制措施6个月。 ...

据第一财经报道，欧盟将暂停对美国的贸易反制措施6个月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's adjustment of rare earth export policies, particularly the strict control over antimony and germanium, poses a dilemma for the U.S. as it attempts to navigate its reliance on Chinese materials while facing domestic pressures to develop its own supply chains [4][11][29]. Group 1: China's Rare Earth Export Strategy - China has increased the export of rare earth magnets to the U.S. but maintains strict controls over antimony and germanium, which are critical materials for military and high-tech applications [5][9][11]. - The export of rare earth magnets to the U.S. saw a significant increase in June compared to May, yet it still represents a 38.1% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, indicating that the restrictions are not fully lifted [9][29]. - The strategy behind the limited release of rare earth magnets is to alleviate immediate pressures on U.S. automotive manufacturers while keeping military-related exports tightly controlled [9][13]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Industries - The U.S. automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicles, relies heavily on rare earth materials, and the easing of restrictions has allowed manufacturers to resume production and reduce inventory turnover days [13][15]. - Conversely, the U.S. military-industrial complex continues to face challenges due to China's stringent controls on military-related rare earth exports, highlighting a significant gap in the U.S. supply chain capabilities [15][17]. - U.S. companies are under pressure to reconcile the need for Chinese rare earths with the government's push for domestic production, leading to a complex situation where they struggle to balance cost and supply chain independence [17][29]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Antimony and Germanium - Antimony and germanium are critical for various high-tech and military applications, including ammunition, military alloys, infrared optics, and semiconductor manufacturing [21][23]. - China's strict control over these materials serves as a countermeasure to U.S. technological restrictions and aims to protect national security interests by preventing these resources from being used against China [23][29]. - The significant drop in exports of antimony and germanium, with June figures showing declines of 88% and 95% respectively compared to January, reflects China's commitment to maintaining control over these strategic resources [27][29].

Core Points - Brazil has established a "Negotiation and Trade Strategy Committee" to assess the potential economic impact of President Trump's announcement to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil [1] - The committee, chaired by Vice President Alckmin, will hold meetings with the industrial and agricultural sectors to discuss responses to the U.S. tariff policy [1] - Alckmin emphasized that engaging in extensive dialogue with exporters is the first step for the Brazilian government in addressing the tariff issue [1] - Brazil is prepared to take countermeasures if the U.S. tariff policy is implemented [1] - President Lula will also meet with some entrepreneurs through this committee [1]