2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 天气扰动豆系，去化主导生猪 饲料养殖 内容提要： 葛妍 分析师 从业资格证：F3052060 投资咨询证：Z0017892 TEL：0516-83831165 E-MAIL： geyan@neweraqh.com.cn 英国萨塞克斯大学管理与金 融专业理学硕士，FRM 持证 人，中级经济师。主要从事 饲料养殖期货研究。 近期报告回顾 供给宽松延续 关注贸易流扰 动（季报）202509 供应端施压饲料养殖 关注事 件驱动（半年报）202507 贸易格局重构豆市格局 供强 需弱生猪难言乐观（年报） 202412 投资有风险理财请匹配 ◆ 国际大豆供需格局总体宽松，关注南美天气扰动。2026 年全球大豆供应 预计维持宽松格局。美国大豆丰产格局稳固，但价格上行仍受全球供应宽 松抑制；巴西大豆产量仍处创纪录水平，出口节奏保持强劲；阿根廷播种 进度加快，虽新作面积略有下调，但整体供应充足；中美经贸关系进入 "交易式管理"新阶段，大豆采购协议执行情况将成为影响美豆出口与价 格结构的关键。拉尼娜仍可能对南美单产构成扰动，需持续关注天气演变 对全球供应预期的调整。 ◆ 国内大豆进口维持高位， ...

Group 1: Seed Industry Segment - The company's market share for the traits corresponding to actual planting area is approximately 60% in 2024, with expectations to further increase in 2025 [2] - The company is the only domestic enterprise with formal planting licenses in Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, currently implementing the "Technology Export, Grain Import" strategy [3] - The total area for soybean planting in China is around 15 million hectares, requiring approximately 500,000 hectares for seed production [4] Group 2: Pig Farming Segment - In 2024, the total number of pigs slaughtered by the company (including subsidiaries) was 6.405 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [6] - The complete cost of fattening pigs as of March 2025 is 12.9 CNY/kg, with a target for further cost reduction [7] Group 3: Feed Segment - The company has significant technical reserves in low-protein diets and can fully replace soybean meal with other protein sources when prices are high [8] - The company is exploring regional industrial chain collaboration to maximize overall efficiency and has established a comprehensive management and supply chain platform [8] Group 4: Other Aspects - The company emphasizes operational management and market value maintenance, implementing measures such as executive stock purchases and profit distribution to share growth dividends with investors [10] - The company aims to be a global leader by 2035, focusing on technological innovation in agricultural development [10] - Sales and management expenses showed a significant decline in 2024, with sales expenses down by 11.31% and management expenses down by 8.46% [11]