低轨星座

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永赢国证商用卫星通信产业ETF:低轨星座补全天地互联互通,卫星通信产业投资价值凸显
Changjiang Securities· 2025-03-27 11:25
Investment Rating - The report highlights the investment value of the commercial satellite communication industry, particularly focusing on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations [3][9]. Core Insights - The satellite internet industry is expected to see significant growth, with the LEO satellite market projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by advancements in satellite manufacturing and ground equipment [8][54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the satellite communication industry in achieving global connectivity and its military potential, which is expected to enhance industry prosperity [8][23]. Summary by Sections Satellite Internet: Application Growth - The satellite industry chain is divided into three segments: space segment (satellite manufacturing and rocket launch), ground segment (ground facilities), and user segment (user terminals and related services). Currently, the LEO satellite internet is in the space segment networking phase, while the high orbit satellite internet has entered the user segment growth phase [7][20]. - The user segment holds a higher value distribution compared to the space segment, indicating a greater potential for investment opportunities as LEO satellites continue to be deployed [20][29]. Market Potential and Growth - The LEO satellite market is estimated to reach approximately 400 billion USD in early 2023, accounting for 14% of the total satellite market. By 2030, the market size in China is expected to approach 1 trillion yuan [8][54]. - The report cites that the satellite manufacturing and ground equipment sectors are likely to experience the first wave of growth within the industry chain [8][54]. Investment Value of the National Commercial Satellite Communication Index - As of March 9, 2025, the satellite communication index shows that the communication industry accounts for 50.14%, followed by national defense and military at 28.67%, and electronics at 16.43% [9]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the index have a combined market capitalization of approximately 1,259.118 billion yuan, with a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of about 9.03% and a projected net profit growth rate of 42.34% over the next two years [9][10]. Policy Support and Industry Development - The report discusses the Chinese government's initiatives to promote the satellite internet industry, including the gradual implementation of business access systems and the encouragement of private sector participation [23][25]. - The "New Infrastructure Action Plan" emphasizes the construction of integrated satellite internet systems, which is expected to benefit related industries [25][29]. Military Applications and Strategic Importance - The military potential of LEO satellite constellations is highlighted, with the U.S. military actively exploring the use of Starlink for various applications, demonstrating the strategic importance of satellite communications in modern warfare [36][46]. - The report notes that the LEO satellite constellations can enhance navigation system accuracy and resilience against interference, making them valuable for military operations [36][42].