分析师：李紫忆 S0340522110001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：liziyi@dgzq.com.cn 策 略 策 略 业 研 究 业 研 究 资料来源：wind，东莞证券研究所 投资要点： 投 资 投 资 北交所策略 迈向星辰大海 北交所专题报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 推荐 SAC 执业证书编号： 商业航天进入需求兑现阶段，低轨星座成为核心驱动力。随着低轨 通信星座由规划走向实施，商业航天正从前期技术验证阶段迈入以 规模化部署为特征的需求释放期。未来千颗级、万颗级星座建设对 火箭发射、卫星制造、测运控及配套系统形成长期、连续的需求曲 线，行业关注重点由"是否具备能力"转向"能否稳定、高频、低 成本交付"。在此背景下，具备工程化能力和规模化交付能力的产 业链环节率先受益，行业内部结构性分化趋势逐步显现。 行 行 北证 50 指数走势 产业链逻辑清晰，上游制造与中游发射服务弹性突出。从产业链结 构看，上游火箭制造、卫星平台与整星制造 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：当前低轨星座正加速大面积部署，星地激光通讯已成 为行业主流趋势，但对于车辆、舰船等可移动设备而言，星地通讯采用微波技术仍是刚性需求。请问贵 公司在该领域具备哪些不可替代的核心优势？这些优势又将如何进一步助力公司提升营收？ 盛路通信（002446.SZ）12月30日在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前在星地激光通讯方面没有布局。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

（原标题：行业迎催化，卫星ETF、航空航天ETF、卫星ETF易方达、卫星产业ETF涨超2%） A股三大指数今日集体走低，截至收盘，沪指跌0.55%报3867.92点，深证成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌 1.77%，科创50指数跌2.22%。全市场成交额1.79万亿元，较前一交易日缩量3246亿元，超2900股下跌。 盘面上，卫星ETF、航空航天ETF、卫星ETF易方达、卫星产业ETF涨超2%。 华福证券认为，可回收火箭的发射试验突破，给行业底层逻辑带来明确拐点，火箭可复用打通产业瓶 颈，制约行业爆发的底层运力问题如得到解决，则将显著提升卫星批量组网能力，产业链底层逻辑将 从"运力稀缺"转化为"规模应用"。 中银国际指出，商业航天主题突破"升温"期。商业航天领域近期迎来顶层设计完善以及新政策支持，为 产业发展明确了发展蓝图，增强了市场对商业航天长期发展的信心。近期我国卫星互联网低轨卫星组网 发射明显提速，产业进展上，12月3日朱雀三号遥一运载火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区发射升空，按 程序完成了飞行任务，未来国内商业航天进入常态化、高频次发射阶段后将对产业链上下游形成实质性 利好。 浙商证券认为，低轨星座加速建设，火 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in interest surrounding satellite internet in China is driven by two main events: the rapid deployment of satellites by China Star Network and the anticipated issuance of satellite internet licenses to major telecom operators [1][19]. Group 1: Satellite Internet Development - China Star Network has accelerated its deployment of satellites, launching 38 satellites in 21 days, indicating a significant increase in the pace of its GW constellation deployment [1]. - The anticipated issuance of satellite internet licenses could include major players such as the three major telecom operators, China Star Network, and Shanghai Yuxin [1][26]. - The current landscape for satellite internet is challenging, with a low probability of success due to high costs and technical difficulties associated with low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations [3][10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Technological Challenges - The development of satellite communication in China began in earnest after the Wenchuan earthquake, leading to increased investment in satellite communication technologies [4]. - China's first high-throughput satellite, Zhongxing 16, was launched in 2017, with subsequent satellites achieving higher capacities, such as Zhongxing 26, which has a capacity exceeding 100 Gbps [5]. - The operational logic and technology of LEO constellations differ significantly from medium and high orbit satellites, requiring a large number of satellites for global coverage [8][9]. Group 3: Economic and Strategic Considerations - The cost of maintaining a LEO constellation is substantial, and commercial viability is crucial for sustaining operations, especially given the need for continuous satellite replenishment [10][18]. - The establishment of China Star Network is partly driven by the need for a domestic satellite constellation, similar to the Beidou system, to enhance national capabilities in satellite communication [17]. - The demand for satellite communication is increasing due to the digital transformation of society and the need for coverage in remote areas, as well as for emergency and defense applications [14][15][16]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The upcoming satellite internet licenses are linked to the first-class basic telecommunications business, indicating a move towards commercial operations in satellite internet [25]. - The three major telecom operators are unlikely to develop large-scale LEO constellations but may focus on specific services using medium and high orbit satellites [26]. - The success of domestic satellite constellations will depend on technological advancements, funding, and support from the national level and the industry chain [26].

Investment Rating - The report highlights the investment value of the commercial satellite communication industry, particularly focusing on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations [3][9]. Core Insights - The satellite internet industry is expected to see significant growth, with the LEO satellite market projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by advancements in satellite manufacturing and ground equipment [8][54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the satellite communication industry in achieving global connectivity and its military potential, which is expected to enhance industry prosperity [8][23]. Summary by Sections Satellite Internet: Application Growth - The satellite industry chain is divided into three segments: space segment (satellite manufacturing and rocket launch), ground segment (ground facilities), and user segment (user terminals and related services). Currently, the LEO satellite internet is in the space segment networking phase, while the high orbit satellite internet has entered the user segment growth phase [7][20]. - The user segment holds a higher value distribution compared to the space segment, indicating a greater potential for investment opportunities as LEO satellites continue to be deployed [20][29]. Market Potential and Growth - The LEO satellite market is estimated to reach approximately 400 billion USD in early 2023, accounting for 14% of the total satellite market. By 2030, the market size in China is expected to approach 1 trillion yuan [8][54]. - The report cites that the satellite manufacturing and ground equipment sectors are likely to experience the first wave of growth within the industry chain [8][54]. Investment Value of the National Commercial Satellite Communication Index - As of March 9, 2025, the satellite communication index shows that the communication industry accounts for 50.14%, followed by national defense and military at 28.67%, and electronics at 16.43% [9]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the index have a combined market capitalization of approximately 1,259.118 billion yuan, with a weighted average return on equity (ROE) of about 9.03% and a projected net profit growth rate of 42.34% over the next two years [9][10]. Policy Support and Industry Development - The report discusses the Chinese government's initiatives to promote the satellite internet industry, including the gradual implementation of business access systems and the encouragement of private sector participation [23][25]. - The "New Infrastructure Action Plan" emphasizes the construction of integrated satellite internet systems, which is expected to benefit related industries [25][29]. Military Applications and Strategic Importance - The military potential of LEO satellite constellations is highlighted, with the U.S. military actively exploring the use of Starlink for various applications, demonstrating the strategic importance of satellite communications in modern warfare [36][46]. - The report notes that the LEO satellite constellations can enhance navigation system accuracy and resilience against interference, making them valuable for military operations [36][42].