Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must take decisive and strong policy actions to address inflation deviations from targets, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism and tariffs under the Trump administration [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Management - Inflation expectations management is a core pillar of modern central bank policy frameworks [1] - Historical experience indicates that the root causes of persistent inflation often stem from unanchored expectations, and the cost of restoring these expectations can rise exponentially [1][3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks significantly impact inflation dynamics, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing notable supply shocks that increase economic uncertainty [3] - The public's perception of future prices may undergo nonlinear changes due to sudden shocks [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - The trade policies under the Trump administration complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, as tariffs exert pressure on the economy through both imported inflation and demand suppression [3] - The Federal Reserve has been assessing the lagged effects of trade policies on inflation since maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December of the previous year [3] Group 4: Financial System Resilience - Current data from the New York Fed indicates that the banking system has sufficient reserves to withstand potential shocks, providing an important buffer for the market [3] - Adequate liquidity reserves will determine the financial system's resilience in the face of "black swan" events [3] Group 5: Policy Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-dependent approach, avoiding overreaction to temporary fluctuations while guarding against the accumulation of potential risks [3] - The most effective policy is proactive expectation management rather than reactive crisis response [3]

港航物流大涨，美线启动，如何看待集运抢运与潜在供应 链紊乱驱动的运价上行？20240514 摘要 • 美线关税调降后订舱量显著提升，现货运价超预期上涨，多家船公司宣布 附加费及综合费率调整。短期内情绪主导，但货代和货主对于抢出口预期 强烈，体现了船公司的议价权。 • 中美关税政策调整可能导致未来库存去化及补库需求增加。美国整体库销 比相对中性偏低，叠加贸易政策不确定性，中期补货意愿存在，夏季为美 线季节旺季，短期内阶段性集中补货概率较大。 • 短期订舱活跃表明抢出口或集中补库概率存在，美线上阶段性的集中补库 将极大提升其价格，对其他航线路径则有温和间接带动效果。全航线路径 更大的价格弹性来自于供给端，即抢出口或需求变动可能引发港口拥堵及 供应链秩序失衡问题。 • 集运供应链可能面临的长期紊乱风险包括船舶运力潮汐导致的港口拥堵、 有效运力损失以及供给端的扰动。欧洲航线已经因集运联盟重组等因素出 现持续拥堵，如果美线需求停滞后集中补库，也会带来港口拥堵及长期紊 乱。 Q&A 近期中国与美国之间关税调降后，集运市场的反应如何？ 近期中国与美国之间关税调降后，集运市场反应超出预期。订舱量和运营商的 反应幅度迅速增加。 ...