根据摩根士丹利8月15日发布的最新报告，在关键的通胀数据公布后，市场交易员们依然将9月降息25个 基点的概率锁定在93%的高位，认为降息几乎是板上钉钉的事情。 这份狂热的共识，其主要源自7月份疲软的就业报告。报告中不仅新增就业放缓，更包含了高达25.8万 的历史数据向下修正，这让投资者迅速得出结论：劳动力市场的冷却速度远超想象，经济下行风险已不 容忽视。 市场的叙事就此形成：在就业引擎可能熄火的风险面前，只要通胀数据不出现灾难性的飙升，就不足以 阻挡美联-储开启预防性降息的步伐。报告如此描述投资者的心态： "他们看到了7月的CPI数据，并断定，这并不足以抵消劳动力市场面临的下行风险。" 于是，一条通往9月降息的"单行道"似乎就此铺就，市场沿着这条路一路狂奔。 就在全球市场几乎将美联储9月降息视为定局之际，华尔街顶级投行摩根士丹利发出了一份截然相反的 重磅警报。 报告直指，一个被市场普遍忽视的"坏消息"——远比预期更棘手的"粘性"服务业通胀，正迫使美联-储 主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔"放鹰"。 大摩预测，下周备受瞩目的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）全球央行年会上，市场翘首以盼的降息"绿 灯"可能不会亮起，取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, using the controversy over the excessive spending on the Fed's headquarters renovation as a means to force Powell to resign before the end of his term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Pressure on Powell - The Trump administration's recent actions suggest a legal pathway to potentially remove Powell, focusing on the renovation costs of the Fed's headquarters, which have reportedly increased by 30% from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [5][6]. - White House officials, including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, have publicly stated that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell based on "just cause," which may relate to the overspending on the renovation project [7][8]. - The current situation mirrors past political pressures on the Fed, reminiscent of Nixon's tactics against then-Chairman Burns in the 1972 election [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Risks - Analysts warn that the risk of Powell's forced resignation is significantly underestimated by the market, with potential consequences including a 3-4% drop in the trade-weighted dollar index and a sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds by 30-40 basis points [19]. - The Deutsche Bank report indicates that if Powell is removed, it could lead to a direct challenge to the Fed's independence, causing instability in global markets [19][20]. Group 3: Potential Successors - Trump is reportedly considering "two or three" candidates to replace Powell, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who have expressed views that align more closely with Trump's economic agenda [9][10][13]. - The candidates are adopting more dovish stances to increase their chances of being selected, which could further complicate the Fed's approach to managing inflation and economic growth [16].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of managing inflation expectations, stating that central banks must avoid allowing inflation expectations to deviate from their targets to prevent long-term issues [2] - Proposed measures for addressing inflation deviations include a strong response from central banks when inflation begins to stray from targets, focusing on avoiding actions where "the cost of errors far exceeds the benefits" [2] - Analysis of inflation expectation uncertainty highlights that supply-side shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have significantly increased uncertainty, necessitating efforts to anchor both long-term and short-term inflation expectations [2] Group 2 - Assessment of the U.S. reserve levels indicates that they are "clearly sufficient," providing a buffer against unforeseen shocks and offering important liquidity support to the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must take decisive and strong policy actions to address inflation deviations from targets, especially in the context of rising trade protectionism and tariffs under the Trump administration [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Management - Inflation expectations management is a core pillar of modern central bank policy frameworks [1] - Historical experience indicates that the root causes of persistent inflation often stem from unanchored expectations, and the cost of restoring these expectations can rise exponentially [1][3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks significantly impact inflation dynamics, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing notable supply shocks that increase economic uncertainty [3] - The public's perception of future prices may undergo nonlinear changes due to sudden shocks [3] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - The trade policies under the Trump administration complicate Federal Reserve decision-making, as tariffs exert pressure on the economy through both imported inflation and demand suppression [3] - The Federal Reserve has been assessing the lagged effects of trade policies on inflation since maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December of the previous year [3] Group 4: Financial System Resilience - Current data from the New York Fed indicates that the banking system has sufficient reserves to withstand potential shocks, providing an important buffer for the market [3] - Adequate liquidity reserves will determine the financial system's resilience in the face of "black swan" events [3] Group 5: Policy Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes a data-dependent approach, avoiding overreaction to temporary fluctuations while guarding against the accumulation of potential risks [3] - The most effective policy is proactive expectation management rather than reactive crisis response [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials express a cautious stance regarding the current economic situation, emphasizing the complexity of monetary policy amid global uncertainties and trade policy fluctuations [1][3][7]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler highlights that despite global uncertainties, the real economy remains healthy, allowing for more time to address inflation issues and stabilize inflation expectations [3]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic supports maintaining interest rates due to rising economic risks from ongoing trade policy uncertainties, advocating for a wait-and-see approach for more economic data clarity [3][5]. - New York Fed President John Williams stresses the importance of managing inflation expectations within target ranges to ensure economic stability, indicating that the current environment is not suitable for preventive rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin warns that businesses cannot easily pass on tariff costs to consumers, as consumer purchasing power and tolerance have been significantly impacted by years of high inflation [5]. - The series of speeches from Fed officials reflects a deep concern for the economic landscape, balancing inflation control and economic growth as a delicate choice for future monetary policy [7]. - The Fed is likely to maintain a patient and flexible approach, adjusting policies based on future economic data and global economic conditions rather than rushing into drastic measures [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve in responding to the Trump administration's tariff policies, suggesting that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a "goalkeeper's dilemma," where maintaining interest rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy, while cutting rates to stimulate growth may exacerbate short-term inflation pressures caused by tariffs or supply shortages [1][2]. - The Fed is likely to prioritize "inflation control" in its decision-making process, especially in light of potential price increases from tariffs [2][4]. Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed will closely monitor labor market changes, using employment data as a critical reference for its decisions. It will not preemptively cut rates based on anticipated economic slowdown without clear data [2][3]. - If there are clear signs of labor market deterioration, the Fed may be prepared to act, but the extent of inflation will be a limiting factor in its decision to lower rates [5][9]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations Management - Managing inflation expectations is crucial for the Fed, as stable expectations can lower the cost of controlling inflation. If expectations become unanchored, it will be more challenging to manage inflation [5][6]. - The Fed's communication strategy has become more complex due to public criticism from Trump, necessitating a cautious approach to guide market expectations [7][8]. Group 4: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is a division among Fed officials regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will be temporary. Some believe that without the tariff-induced price pressures, the Fed might have already begun cutting rates [9][11]. - Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren suggests that the Fed should cut rates in response to economic weakness, as rate cuts can help offset weak demand but do not address supply chain issues [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve in responding to the "hasty" tariff policies of the Trump administration, suggesting that the Fed may pause interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a "goalkeeper's dilemma," where maintaining interest rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy, while cutting rates to stimulate growth may exacerbate short-term inflation pressures caused by tariffs or supply shortages [1][2]. - The Fed is closely monitoring labor market changes, with employment data being a crucial reference for decision-making [1][3]. Group 2: Tariffs and Economic Activity - Tariffs may force the Fed to take a more cautious approach, as they could temporarily raise prices and slow economic activity, leading to signs of stagflation [2]. - A key challenge is determining the duration and magnitude of price increases caused by tariffs and potential supply disruptions [2][6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations Management - Managing inflation expectations is critical for the Fed's communication strategy, especially in a dual challenge of recession and inflation pressures [3]. - If consumers and businesses expect inflation to decline, it can stabilize inflation expectations, making it easier to control inflation [3]. Group 4: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is a consensus among Fed officials that rate cuts are inappropriate until clear signs of consumer spending slowdown and rising unemployment are observed [6]. - However, there are differing views on whether the price increases from tariffs will be temporary, with some officials suggesting that rate cuts may be necessary if demand weakens significantly [6].