1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CD rate dropped rapidly after the self - regulatory new rule "patch" and hit a record low, but the new low is more a result of trading games rather than the impact of inter - bank self - regulation. The reasonable pricing range of 1 - year national and joint - stock CD rates is still 1.55% - 1.6%, and a rate below 1.55% is too low relative to the current policy rate [8][10][11]. - The decisive factor for the subsequent trend of CD rates is the issuance demand of CDs, and the contraction of repurchase under agreement needs attention [13]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond valuation yield reached a new high since Q4 2024, and inflation expectations and supply pressure are the two main factors pressuring the long - end. The 10 - year Treasury bond is in a volatile state, and varieties above 1.8% are attractive to allocation funds, with little risk of a significant upward movement. The 30 - year Treasury bond is in a relatively weak state [16][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "1. CD New Low and 30 - year High" - **CD New Low** - After the self - regulatory new rule "patch", the CD rate dropped rapidly. The secondary trading rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs fell to around 1.53%, breaking the previous record of 1.54% [8]. - The impact of the inter - bank self - regulatory "patch" on short - end pricing is judged to be limited. The new low of the CD rate is mainly due to trading games. The opportunity cost of empty positions or short - duration positions is high, so investors increase their allocation of CDs after the new rule is implemented, resulting in a decline in CD rates [10][11]. - The reasonable pricing range of 1 - year national and joint - stock CD rates is 1.55% - 1.6%, and a rate below 1.55% is too low relative to the current policy rate [10][11]. - The subsequent trend of CD rates depends on the issuance demand of banks. The contraction of repurchase under agreement may affect banks' CD issuance demand [13][14]. - **30 - year High** - The 30 - year Treasury bond valuation yield reached a new high since Q4 2024, reaching 2.37%. The long - end is under pressure due to inflation expectations and supply pressure. Inflation expectations are strong, and the supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the ultra - long - term. The 30 - year Treasury bond is in a relatively weak state, while the 10 - year Treasury bond is in a volatile state, and varieties above 1.8% are attractive to allocation funds [16][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - **Stock Index**: AI concerns are intensifying, precious metals are strengthening, and the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. It may show a slightly upward trend before the Two Sessions. Market sentiment towards the Two Sessions can be monitored [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is facing significant supply pressure after the holiday. If this pressure can be continuously absorbed, it may dialectically contribute to the continuation of the bond bull market since the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to supply pressure, and treasury bonds may fluctuate [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: The four major stock indices fluctuated and faced pressure before the holiday [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound fluctuations [11]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Treasury bonds showed a slightly upward trend in the pre - holiday period but faced pressure on the last trading day before the holiday [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Fluctuating operation [13]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI** - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. Compared with December last year, it decreased significantly, but it was basically the same as in November last year. Production recovered mainly due to the improvement in the upstream industry, and export orders increased slightly, which may continuously drive the high - tech manufacturing industry. However, there is no obvious improvement in demand, and inventory tends to accumulate. High raw material prices may affect industrial enterprise profitability [19]. - **CPI** - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026: low base, narrowing decline in pork prices, impact of gold price fluctuations, and expansion of service consumption [22]. - **Imports and Exports** - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, much higher than the Reuters consensus forecast of 3%. The month - on - month growth rate was 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years (5.9%), and the two - year compound growth rate also rebounded to 8.6%. The over - expected export growth in 2025 was due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road investment driving foreign trade" cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - **Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size** - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%, reaching the weakest level since September 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of revenue rebounded to - 0.3%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant drop in profit margins [29]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment** - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, significantly lower than in 2024 and turning negative. It is estimated that the growth rate in December was - 16.0%, with the decline continuing to expand. In December, the growth rates of private investment and public investment were - 17.2% and - 14.3% respectively, both with expanding declines. Among the components, the growth rate of construction and installation projects dropped to - 28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively [32]. - **Social Retail** - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and retail above the quota were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly higher than in 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail dropped to 0.9%, while the decline in retail above the quota narrowed to - 1.9%. The differentiation was due to weak consumption across channels and reduced drag from durable goods [35]. - **Social Financing** - On February 13, 2026, the central bank announced the financial statistics for January 2026. In January, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion, and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion. At the end of January, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds, undiscounted bills, and foreign currency loans. The year - on - year increase in long - term loans for both residents and enterprises decreased, while the year - on - year increase in short - term loans increased. M1 and M2 both rebounded year - on - year, and non - bank deposits continued to increase. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies maintained sufficient liquidity [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - From January 20th to January 26th, the bond market seller sentiment index declined, while the buyer sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. The bond market allocation force steadily entered the market, and the suppression of the equity market slowed down, driving the long - term bonds to have a repair market. However, the expected time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is still far off, and the market has a strong expectation of range - bound fluctuations in the market. The seller sentiment cooled slightly, and the market's judgment on the subsequent space remains cautious [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment 3.1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.07, a decrease of 0.07 compared with January 13th - January 19th. Some institutional market views turned neutral. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 5 bullish, 22 neutral, and 3 bearish. 17% of institutions are bullish, believing that the warming of easing expectations and the decline in capital interest rates establish a favorable environment, combined with fundamental support and reverse layout opportunities. The bond market has a ceiling but also room below, showing a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. 73% of institutions are neutral, thinking that the recovery of the fundamentals and supply pressure pose a suppression, but the allocation force and loose capital supply provide support, and the regulatory desirable range restricts the downward space. The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations. 10% of institutions are bearish, expecting that the lack of confidence during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reverse, the long - term low - interest - rate expectation faces correction, and in the short term, under the suppression of supply shocks and the recovery of risk appetite, the bond market still has downward pressure [13]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was 0.00, an increase of 0.15 compared with January 13th - January 19th. The sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral view, with 5 bullish, 16 neutral, and 5 bearish. 19% of institutions are bullish, believing that the expected cooling of the stock market and hedging demand form a bullish support. The long - term decline of the population and real estate cycles establishes a low - interest - rate environment, combined with the warming of expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts and the alleviation of previous suppression factors, the bond market sentiment is significantly bullish. 62% of institutions are neutral, stating that although the expectation of MLF interest rate cuts and moderately loose monetary policy provide some support, under the money - attracting effect of the stock market and the constraints of the central bank's desirable range, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. 19% of institutions are bearish, believing that the long - term fundamentals weaken under the expectation of stable inflation and economic improvement, combined with the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and credit risk disturbances. Without new bullish factors, it is difficult to break through the central bank's range downward [14].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main Zheng cotton contract showing a slight increase of 0.52% after initially declining, driven by expectations of reduced planting area and concerns over future supply constraints [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipated decrease in domestic planting area for the new year has heightened market concerns regarding future supply shortages, providing strong support for cotton prices [1] - Despite the expected abundant cotton yield this year, supply pressure remains, compounded by the traditional off-season for the textile industry, leading to weak new orders from weaving factories [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Domestic textile enterprises are facing significant pressure, as the rise in cotton prices has not been matched by an increase in downstream yarn prices, resulting in squeezed profits for yarn manufacturers [1] - The motivation for textile companies to replenish raw materials is weakening due to these profit pressures [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, Zheng cotton is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, driven by a combination of strong expectations and strong realities, which differs from previous purely expectation-driven trading [1] - The likelihood of turning positive expectations into negative outcomes is lower this time, and there are still favorable policy developments anticipated in the future [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of zinc remains high, with a 7.2% year - on - year increase in supply in June and an expected output of 590,000 tons in July. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly. The negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. After the absolute price rises, the spot market trading becomes colder, and the spot premium drops rapidly. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$0.24/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 80 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 35 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 60 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 70 yuan/ton to 22,410 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan/ton and closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 160,924 lots, a decrease of 64,900 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 140,186 lots, a decrease of 2,242 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,330 - 22,530 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The spot market premium continues to decline. The supply in June increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July is still as high as 590,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The social inventory has increased slightly, the finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has begun to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, and the smelting enthusiasm has further increased, so the supply pressure remains. After the absolute price rises, the spot market trading becomes colder, and the spot premium drops rapidly. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium to long-term bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways to weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: High-level sideways [3] - Silver: Bullish sideways [3] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Sideways [5] - Palm oil: Sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [5] - Live pigs: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the early stage is gradually weakening, and various industries are mainly influenced by fundamentals, supply and demand, and external factors [2][3][5][7][8] - The market is affected by factors such as Sino-US relations, tariff policies, interest rate policies, and seasonal factors, with significant uncertainties [2][3][5][7][8] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term, it returns to fundamentals, with high valuation in the black sector and mainly long allocation. Steel mill profitability is high, and there is new restocking demand. However, iron ore port inventory is relatively high, and iron water production has decreased. Medium to long-term, it is bearish due to weak domestic demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Steel mill iron water production has slightly decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall oversupply situation following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment is weakening. Demand is falling, and supply is increasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the destocking. Steel prices are under phased pressure [2] - **Glass**: There are rumors of production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and production and sales have improved. However, production lines have resumed operation, and inventory has increased significantly. In the long term, demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2] - **Soda ash**: Sideways, mainly affected by the overall situation of the glass industry [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau plan to improve the management of overseas direct listing funds of domestic enterprises. The issuance of the first 50-year special treasury bond has been completed, and the bond market is mainly affected by supply pressure and capital conditions [2][3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate is consolidating. The treasury bond market is in a narrow sideways range, and long positions can be held lightly [3] - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The current upward logic remains unchanged, and it is mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy. It is expected to maintain a high-level sideways trend [3] - **Silver**: Bullish sideways, affected by factors such as inflation and market sentiment [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The paper mill inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to be sideways [5] - **Logs**: The downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand is average. The supply pressure is relatively weak, and it is expected to be in a bottom sideways pattern [5] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the supply of the three major oils is abundant. It is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, but there is pre-festival stocking demand. It is expected to be sideways [5] - **Meal products**: The inventory of US soybeans may tighten further, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The domestic soybean supply has become loose, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the demand of slaughter enterprises is stable. The post-festival consumption demand has decreased seasonally, but the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. It is expected to be sideways [7] - **Rubber**: The supply is temporarily under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The tire enterprise operating rate has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be sideways [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PX inventory has been continuously reduced, with the PXN spread repaired. It is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PTA inventory is being reduced. It is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8] - **MEG**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the port is expected to destock. The raw material end is weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro sentiment [8] - **PR**: There is some cost support, but downstream follow-up is insufficient. The polyester bottle chip market may adjust slightly stronger [8] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, there is still some cost support, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [8]