新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 现实及预期供给压力依旧不减 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.24 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨至22490元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌35元/吨至80元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌60元/吨至22490元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至80元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌70元/吨至 22410元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-30沪锌主力合约开于22330元/吨，收于22495元/吨，较前一交易日上涨70元/吨，全天交易日成 交160924手，较前一交易日减少64900手，全天交易日持仓140186手，较前一交易日减少2242手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22530元/吨，最低点达到22330元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME 锌库存为117475吨，较上一交易日减少1750吨。 市场分 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium to long-term bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways to weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: High-level sideways [3] - Silver: Bullish sideways [3] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Sideways [5] - Palm oil: Sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [5] - Live pigs: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the early stage is gradually weakening, and various industries are mainly influenced by fundamentals, supply and demand, and external factors [2][3][5][7][8] - The market is affected by factors such as Sino-US relations, tariff policies, interest rate policies, and seasonal factors, with significant uncertainties [2][3][5][7][8] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term, it returns to fundamentals, with high valuation in the black sector and mainly long allocation. Steel mill profitability is high, and there is new restocking demand. However, iron ore port inventory is relatively high, and iron water production has decreased. Medium to long-term, it is bearish due to weak domestic demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Steel mill iron water production has slightly decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall oversupply situation following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment is weakening. Demand is falling, and supply is increasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the destocking. Steel prices are under phased pressure [2] - **Glass**: There are rumors of production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and production and sales have improved. However, production lines have resumed operation, and inventory has increased significantly. In the long term, demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2] - **Soda ash**: Sideways, mainly affected by the overall situation of the glass industry [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau plan to improve the management of overseas direct listing funds of domestic enterprises. The issuance of the first 50-year special treasury bond has been completed, and the bond market is mainly affected by supply pressure and capital conditions [2][3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate is consolidating. The treasury bond market is in a narrow sideways range, and long positions can be held lightly [3] - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The current upward logic remains unchanged, and it is mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy. It is expected to maintain a high-level sideways trend [3] - **Silver**: Bullish sideways, affected by factors such as inflation and market sentiment [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The paper mill inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to be sideways [5] - **Logs**: The downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand is average. The supply pressure is relatively weak, and it is expected to be in a bottom sideways pattern [5] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the supply of the three major oils is abundant. It is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, but there is pre-festival stocking demand. It is expected to be sideways [5] - **Meal products**: The inventory of US soybeans may tighten further, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The domestic soybean supply has become loose, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the demand of slaughter enterprises is stable. The post-festival consumption demand has decreased seasonally, but the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. It is expected to be sideways [7] - **Rubber**: The supply is temporarily under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The tire enterprise operating rate has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be sideways [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PX inventory has been continuously reduced, with the PXN spread repaired. It is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PTA inventory is being reduced. It is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8] - **MEG**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the port is expected to destock. The raw material end is weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro sentiment [8] - **PR**: There is some cost support, but downstream follow-up is insufficient. The polyester bottle chip market may adjust slightly stronger [8] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, there is still some cost support, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [8]