研究报告 2026 年 2 月股指期货市场运行报告 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期：2026 年 2 | 3 | 月 | 日星期一 | 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 2 月份，国内股指期货市场整体呈现震荡上行走势，但结 构分化特征贯穿全月。全月走势以春节为界可分为两个阶段： 春节前受长假效应影响，市场交投逐步清淡，成交额持续萎缩， 指数层面以缩量震荡为主，中小盘指数期货（IC,IM）表现相对 强势，大盘蓝筹期货（IF,IH）则表现疲弱。节后随着资金回流， 市场成交活跃度大幅回升，中小盘指数期货（IC, IM）延续强 势，涨幅领先于大盘蓝筹期货（IF, IH）。从全月表现看，中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher on February 25, 2026, with base metals leading the gains [1]. - The A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival, but the slope will be slower than in January, pricing in the warm Spring Festival consumption and technology event hotspots. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate after the festival [16]. - The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The US GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all showed varying degrees of increase on February 25, 2026, with the CSI 500 futures having a relatively large daily increase of 1.61% [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures mostly declined on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively large daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index increased by 0.15% on February 25, 2026, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 225 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34 bp on February 25, 2026, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24 bp [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On February 25, 2026, most industries showed an upward trend, with non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals having relatively large daily increases of 3.53%, 4.26%, and 2.37% respectively. The consumer services and media industries declined, with decreases of 0.52% and 0.92% respectively [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On February 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14%, NYMEX natural gas decreased by 2.94%, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 4.75% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold decreased by 1.25% on February 24, 2026, while CONEX silver increased by 0.57% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME tin, etc. showed different trends on February 24, 2026. For example, LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and other agricultural products also had different price changes on February 24, 2026. For example, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.05% [8]. Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, with the cross - regional passenger flow in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season reaching 5.08 billion person - times, a record high. However, real estate sales were at a seasonal low, and the social financing in January started steadily. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the social financing data needs to be observed in combination with January - February data [16]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, personal consumption was the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies may support the prices of gold and silver in the short term. The crude oil market is dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, and the A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate, and the RMB may continue to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; stock index options are expected to be volatile; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are all expected to be volatile [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Many non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [17]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. are expected to be volatile [19]. - **Agriculture**: Many agricultural products such as cotton, natural rubber, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend, while sugar is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker [19].

周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2026 年第 8 周 报告日期： 2026 年 2 月 24 日 ★商品期货 根据周度期货技术指标信号分析，贵金属板块黄金和白银以 震荡为主。有色板块中，镍和氧化铝显示看涨信号，多晶硅 和铝合金看跌，其余品种震荡。沪铜主力节前周线收近似十 字星，底部支撑仍存，但短期震荡，建议关注节后价格波动， 可在 10 万至 10.3 万元/吨区间逢低建仓。黑色板块热卷、铁 矿石、硅铁、焦煤看跌，欧线集运及剩余品种震荡；螺纹钢 短期震荡偏弱，日线空头排列，关注 3000-3040 元/吨支撑。 能源板块燃料油和低硫燃料油看涨，其余震荡。化工板块尿 素、烧碱、纯苯看涨，甲醇、苯乙烯、乙二醇看跌，其余品 种震荡；PTA 周线维持 5000-5400 元/吨震荡区间，短期震荡 为主。农产品板块玉米淀粉、鸡蛋、豆一、菜籽粕、玉米、 苹果、红枣看涨，棕榈油看跌，其余震荡；玉米主力短期震 荡，日线反弹但面临周线压力，支撑位 2220-2250 元/吨，压 力位关注周度 MA120。 ★金融期货 根据期货技术指标信号分析，股指期货方面，中证 500（IC） 显示看涨信号，但短期以震荡为主。周线 ...

研究报告 股指周报 股指期货春节前市场回顾与后市展望 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | --- | 【债券】 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 2 月 13 日 A 股春节前最后一个交易日，三大指数集体回调。 截止收盘，沪指跌 1.26%，收报 4082.07 点；深证成指跌 1.28%， 收报 14100.19 点；创业板指跌 1.57%，收报 3275.96 点。 行 业板块涨少跌多，船舶制造与航天航空板块逆市走强，光伏设备、 小金属、玻璃玻纤、航运港口、钢铁行业、采掘行业、贵金属、 能源金属板块跌幅居前。沪深京三市成交额仅有 19991 亿，较前 一交易日缩量 1619 亿。 上周，国债期货近降远升。具体如下： | | 主力合约名称 | 上周涨跌幅(%) | 上周收盘价(元) | | - ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 13, 2026 [2] - **Data Source**: Wind Financial Terminal, Steel Union Data Terminal [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the document. 2. Core View The document mainly presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on February 13, 2026, including the basis rate changes, spot prices, and futures contract prices of multiple commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, the spot price is 102,040, and the settlement price of the main contract is 102,680. The basis decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous day [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.10%, the spot price is 23,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 23,610 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.45%, the spot price is 24,480, and the settlement price of the main contract is 24,590 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 0.99%, the spot price is 16,575, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,740 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.37%, the spot price is 391,650, and the settlement price of the main contract is 393,120 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, the spot price is 140,780, and the settlement price of the main contract is 140,320 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 11.31%, the spot price is 9,300, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,290 [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.28%, the spot price is 1,126.12, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,129.74 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 4.63%, the spot price is 19,670, and the settlement price of the main contract is 20,626 [3]. Steel - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 5.25%, the spot price is 3,050, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,096 [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, the spot price is 3,218, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,237 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 5.94%, the spot price is 807.3, and the settlement price of the main contract is 762.0 [3]. - Coke (J): The main contract basis rate is - 3.5%, the spot price is 1,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,664.0 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 9.60%, the spot price is 1,227.5, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,120.0 [3]. - Power Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is 0.50%, the spot price is 711.0, and the settlement price of the main contract is 801.4 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.00%, the spot price is 5,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,500 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is 2.07%, the spot price is 5,800, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,842 [3]. - Stainless Steel (SS): The main contract basis rate is 1.29%, the spot price is 14,150, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,975 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 143,450, and the settlement price of the main contract is 147,340 [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.38%, the spot price is 2,223, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,231 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 0.14%, the spot price is 3,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,830 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.48%, the spot price is 5,195, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,220 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 3.04%, the spot price is 6,850, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,648 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 2.04%, the spot price is 7,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,415 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is - 0.03%, the spot price is 6,620, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,616 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 0.24%, the spot price is 6,750, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,734 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is - 3.40%, the spot price is 4,770, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,938 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 16,400, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,450 [3]. - 20 - Standard Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.09%, the spot price is 13,736, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,405 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 4.30%, the spot price is 1,112, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,162 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 1.79%, the spot price is 1,810, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,843 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 2.14%, the spot price is 5,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 4.70%, the spot price is 454.4, and the settlement price of the main contract is 478.1 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, the spot price is 3,148, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,888 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 3,210, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,348 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.89%, the spot price is 3,379, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,355 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 11.17%, the spot price is 4,748, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,447 [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The main contract basis rate is - 11.2%, the spot price is 4,100, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,613 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 9.68%, the spot price is 3,060, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,790 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 8.55%, the spot price is 2,263, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,303 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 5.91%, the spot price is 8,560, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,082 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 9.65%, the spot price is 9,920, and the settlement price of the main contract is 9,047 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 15.78%, the spot price is 9,200, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,938 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 1.34%, the spot price is 8,900, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,782 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 0.86%, the spot price is 2,340, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,320 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 1.48%, the spot price is 2,610, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,642 [3]. - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is - 1.22%, the spot price is 8,209, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,300 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 14.85%, the spot price is 3,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,444 [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract basis rate is 7.02%, the spot price is 12,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 11,540 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.65%, the spot price is 14,790, and the settlement price of the main contract is 14,855 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 5,370, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,254 [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 4,719.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,719.4 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is - 0.11%, the spot price is 3,079.7, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,082.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 8,423.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,448.2 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Most sectors are under short - term pressure, and the volatility risk around the Spring Festival increases. Investors need to manage their positions carefully [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver in the precious metals sector are expected to decline next week; alumina in the non - ferrous sector shows a bullish signal, while aluminum, zinc, tin, aluminum alloy, copper, and industrial silicon show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are expected to fluctuate [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai copper had large fluctuations before the festival. MACD formed a death cross approaching the zero axis, the price dropped to the lower Bollinger Band, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and correct next week. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60, and long positions are advised to wait and manage positions [12]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, wire rods, manganese silicon, rebar, and iron ore show bearish signals next week, and the rest of the varieties are expected to fluctuate; European - line container shipping shows a bullish signal [17]. - The main contract of rebar has been falling continuously on the daily line. MACD is in a short position to the zero axis, and the price has broken through MA60. The support around 3000 - 3040 is to be noted, and the downward trend is expected to continue [21]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fluctuate. In the chemical sector, polypropylene shows a bullish signal, while PTA, paraxylene, etc. show bearish signals [26]. - The main contract of PTA is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is currently in a 5000 - 5400 yuan/ton oscillation range. MACD maintains a long position but the bars are shrinking. The daily - line price shows a weak oscillation, and it is expected to fluctuate next week [29]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean No.1, sugar, and corn in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals next week, while soybean No.2, rapeseed meal, etc. show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are expected to fluctuate [36]. - The main contract of corn is expected to fluctuate before the festival. The daily - line price is in a consolidation state, with insufficient trading volume and open interest. MACD forms a death cross above the zero axis, but the downside space is limited. It may fluctuate around 2220 - 2250 yuan/ton in the short term [41]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The main contracts of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all show oscillation signals next week [2]. - The weekly - line price of IC (CSI 500) futures continued to decline by 2.93%, and the daily - line MACD is in a short position above the zero axis. It is expected to fluctuate next week, and risk and position management should be noted [50]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals next week, while the 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [53]. - The price of the main contract of the 10 - year treasury bond futures T is expected to fluctuate. The daily - line shows a long - position arrangement, and the price has stood above MA250. Attention should be paid to the price movement around MA250, and the resistance range of 108.5 - 108.7 can be noted [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance on quantitative tightening may be difficult to implement. The market's expectations for the US monetary policy path are unlikely to change significantly, and investors should also monitor the US-Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market is expected to continue with positive policy expectations. In Q1, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve a good start for the economy in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The overall policy environment is favorable, which supports a bullish view on risk assets in Q1 [9]. - Asset views: Structured opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectations, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectations can support the upward movement of the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector has high short - term volatility, and it is recommended to wait for volatility to decline. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after a pullback. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil has high uncertainty, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Performance Data Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - On February 5, 2026, most index futures showed declines, such as the CSI 500 futures with a daily decline of - 1.59% and a weekly decline of - 2.9%. Treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.22% [2]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose by 0.27% on February 5, 2026, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 25 pips. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate decreased by 0.95 bp [2]. Interest Rates - The 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 1 bp on February 5, 2026, and the US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread increased by 1 bp [2]. Industry Index - On February 5, 2026, industries such as consumer services, textile and apparel, and food and beverage showed increases, while industries like non - ferrous metals, steel, and machinery showed declines [4]. Domestic Commodities - On February 5, 2026, commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe) and fuel oil showed increases, while precious metals (silver) and non - ferrous metals (nickel) showed significant declines [5]. Overseas Commodities - On February 4, 2026, overseas energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell. Precious metals like COMEX gold and COMEX silver also rose [6]. 2. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down with shrinking trading volume, and the consumer sector strengthened seasonally. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase [10]. - Stock index options: The implied volatility showed a differentiated trend, indicating a range - bound game sentiment. The short - term outlook is range - bound [10]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the implementation of monetary policy, risk appetite, and government bond issuance [10]. Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Geopolitical tensions eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the US economic fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and geopolitical trends [10]. - Silver: The structural tightness in the spot market eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch are similar to those for gold [10]. Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Spot freight rates were under pressure, and shipping companies cut prices to attract cargo before the festival. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include spot market freight rate changes, geopolitical sentiment, and the risk of price wars among shipping companies [10]. Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: Cost support weakened, and the futures market was under pressure. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [10]. - Iron ore: Hot metal production increased slightly, and inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term outlook is range - bound, with factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics to be monitored [10]. - Coke: Profits recovered, supply increased, and the demand from hot metal production provided support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. - Coking coal: Restocking was nearly completed, and the futures and spot markets were range - bound. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include coal mine resumption, Mongolian coal imports, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Nickel: There was a game between expected policies and weak reality, and nickel prices were range - bound. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [10]. - Tin: Market sentiment was weak, and tin prices continued to adjust. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [10]. - Copper: The US dollar index continued to rise, and copper prices were under short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [10]. - Aluminum: Inventories continued to accumulate, and aluminum prices declined. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: Supply pressure remained, and geopolitics dominated the rhythm. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: Chemical demand weakened, and attention should be paid to Iranian risks. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [12]. Agricultural Sector - Natural rubber: Short - term support was still effective. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [12]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures market had high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [12]. - Cotton: It was range - bound and lacked a unilateral trend before the festival. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include production and demand [12]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar exports still had potential, and the medium - to - long - term outlook was for a range - bound decline. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound decline, and factors to watch include Brazilian port logistics, lower - than - expected northern hemisphere production, and macroeconomic fluctuations [12].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic futures contracts showed a mixed performance, with precious metals experiencing a strong rebound, particularly silver and gold, which rose over 7% and 6% respectively [3][7] - The article highlights that coking coal and fuel oil also saw significant increases, with gains exceeding 5% and 4% respectively, while indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 fell by over 1% [3][7] Group 2 - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures suggest that the recent rebound in gold prices may be primarily due to short-term overselling, with speculative buying contributing to price recovery, indicating that the overall short-term driving force is not strong [5][9] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming US ADP employment data to assess the latest changes in the private sector employment situation, which could impact market sentiment [5][9] - From a technical perspective, short-term support for gold is noted around the 1100 level, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while the previous significant bearish opening price around 1140 serves as a key resistance level [5][9]