铅周报：国内社会库存逐步累库 关注宏观因素影响 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 产业供需： ➢ 供应端，本周国产铅精矿加工费至300元/金属吨，SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费至-135美元/干吨。进口矿市场部分招投标报价陆续报出，部分冶炼厂锁定了2026年的长单协 议，但相关加工费已跌至-160~-200美元/干吨，冶炼厂普遍谨慎观望。国内矿贸易市场上，河南、内蒙古等地冶炼厂持续按需采购；江西、湖南、云南等地南方地区冶炼厂 因铅精矿供应短缺出现生产开工下滑的情况并未缓和，云南地区某冶炼厂提及尽管低银铅精矿加工费并未下调。 ➢ 冶炼端，本周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均开工率为6 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices continued the rebound trend with intense fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable, and the second round of coking price increase was still in the negotiation process. Supply - side news pushed up coal prices [3]. - Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia, the customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port was affected, and the recent clearance volume decreased, supporting the coal price [3]. - In the domestic market, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen stopped production due to safety reasons this week, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai stopped production for goaf treatment. The coal output declined. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines this week was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand - side - The profit of steel mills further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.399 billion tons. As the demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, the import volume was 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline rate continuously narrowing [3]. - In September, the import of Mongolian coal was 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, the import of Mongolian coal was 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline rate significantly narrowing [3].

花旗坚持其铝的"结构性看涨"立场，认为年超300万吨的需求增长与印尼无法成为"下一个中国"的供应 瓶颈将推高价格。然而，报告坦承在LME周上遭遇了"重大反驳"。尽管无人能推翻其需求数据，但市场 对结论的广泛分歧，暗示着铝价上行之路并非共识。 我们对铝的结构性看涨前景受到了一些阻力，但无人能挑战支撑我们的分析数据。趋势性的 铝终端需求增长要求在可预见的未来每年增加超过300万吨的供应……中国的原生铝加工政 策表明，政府现在可以接受境外铝与中国铝竞争……标志着他们愿意将电力优先分配给数据 中心/AI和机器人等其他行业。 铜市共识看涨，锌市前景黯淡 花旗研究在10月16日发布的《Metal Matters》报告中，提炼了本年度LME周的市场核心情绪：对铝的看 法严重分歧，对铜的牛市几乎成为共识，而对锌的熊市预期则伴随着挥之不去的短期不确定性。 这份来自全球金属交易核心地带的快照，为投资者揭示了未来12-18个月的关键交易逻辑与潜在风险。 铝市分歧加剧，多空激辩 与铝不同，市场对铜的未来普遍看涨，但看涨逻辑各异。花旗报告指出，这些逻辑"涵盖了纸面上的 2026年赤字、宏观驱动的资金流入……以及为利用COMEX-LME ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Manganese silicon/silicon iron: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. The cost center will move up due to the rebound of coking coal prices, while the supply pressure remains with the continuous release of new manganese silicon production capacity and high - level silicon iron supply. With lackluster demand, the prices of ferrous commodities may be more affected by the macro - environment and policy expectations, deviating from fundamentals. It is expected that ferroalloy prices will seek a balance between weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, showing a range - bound trend with limited upside and downside space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - Quarter Review of the Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Markets - In the first quarter, manganese ore prices rose steadily due to factors such as decreasing port inventories and reduced Gabonese shipments, driving up manganese silicon prices. Then, as the cost - driving force weakened, manganese silicon prices declined until a rebound in the third quarter. Silicon iron prices were under pressure in the first half of the year due to weak demand. Although it followed the upward trend of manganese silicon passively, it continued to decline. In the third quarter, both manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rebounded with the recovery of coking coal prices [11] 3.2 Manganese Silicon: Rising Costs and High - Level Supply 3.2.1 Cost Increase - Manganese ore prices reached a high in the first quarter, driven by factors like slow overseas shipments, low port inventories, and concentrated ownership of oxidized ore. After that, prices declined as supply increased. In the third quarter, the price increase was limited. In the fourth quarter, port inventories are expected to be replenished, but the decline in prices may be limited. Chemical coke prices fell in the first half of the year and rebounded in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, they are expected to fluctuate within a range, providing some support to alloy prices [22][40] 3.2.2 High - Level Supply - Manganese silicon manufacturers' operating rates declined this year due to shrinking profits, but increased slightly in the second quarter as costs eased. In the third quarter, the operating rate remained high. In the fourth quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, maintaining high - level supply [42] 3.3 Silicon Iron: Rising Operating Rates and Increasing Inventories 3.3.1 Supply Release Driven by Rising Futures Profits - Silicon iron production was high from January to April. In the second quarter, production decreased due to losses. In the third quarter, with the recovery of prices and profits, supply increased. In different regions, Inner Mongolia had a high and rising operating rate, Ningxia was stable, and Shaanxi had a relatively low operating rate. In the fourth quarter, the over - capacity situation remains, and the operating rate will be profit - driven, with high supply elasticity [50][51] 3.3.2 Pressured Steel Demand at Home and Abroad - In the fourth quarter, steel demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and weak real - estate investment. Silicon iron exports have been under pressure this year and are expected to remain weak in the fourth quarter. The demand from the magnesium market has limited impact on silicon iron. The balance of the silicon iron market in the fourth quarter will depend on supply - side adjustments [68] 3.4 Summary of Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron in the Second Half of the Year - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. Cost centers will move up, while supply pressure remains. With lackluster demand, prices are expected to be range - bound, and the market's volatility will depend on the game between cost support, supply pressure, and macro - factors [70][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent oil prices have been fluctuating weakly. The core reason is that the oversupply pressure in the crude oil market has become a reality, overshadowing recent geopolitical disturbances. The oversupply pressure mainly stems from the continuous production increase of global oil - producing entities on the supply side, while the demand side lacks support, and crude oil demand is about to peak and decline. Although macro and geopolitical factors have some influence, they are now secondary. The continuous acceleration of OPEC+'s production - increasing actions is the core driver determining the oil price direction, and supply pressure dominates the market. It is still recommended to sell high and pay attention to the rhythm and participate cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Trends**: The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.37%, at $62.60 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.18%; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.77%, at $66.88 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.11% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: As of the week ending September 9, the speculative net short position of WTI crude oil futures increased by 14,840 lots to 24,905 lots; the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 41,476 lots to 209,578 lots. The speculative net long position of gasoline futures increased by 8,965 lots to 107,376 lots. As of September 12, the open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,024 lots, a week - on - week increase of 14,216 lots compared to September 5 [10]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads**: On Friday (September 12), the price spread between WTI and Brent was - $4.3 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 per barrel compared to last Friday (September 5); the price spread between SC and WTI was $4.59 per barrel, a decrease of $1.11 per barrel compared to last Friday; the price spread between SC and Brent was $0.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.78 per barrel compared to last Friday [11]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Weak and fluctuating [12]. - **Arbitrage**: The seasonal spread of gasoline cracking weakens, while that of diesel cracking is strong [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.3. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day. From September 6 to 12, the number of active US oil rigs was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 rigs [23]. - **Demand**: From August 30 to September 5, the crude oil input of US refineries was 16.818 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day; the refinery utilization rate was 94.90%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points [23]. - **Imports and Exports**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil exports were 2.745 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.139 million barrels per day; petroleum product exports were 7.195 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 barrels per day. From August 26 to September 1, the seaborne crude oil exports in the Middle East were 18.4189 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 19.77%; this week, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports were 2.9933 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 24.82% [23]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 424,646 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,939 thousand barrels; the total strategic petroleum inventory was 405,224 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514 thousand barrels; the total oil inventory in the Cushing area was 23,857 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 365 thousand barrels. As of September 10, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 110.14, a week - on - week increase of 1.83%; the proportion of storage capacity to total storage capacity was 60.16%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of lead remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 41.93 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [2] - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509/2510 contracts; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some suppliers quoted a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead price [3] Futures Market - On August 28, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,885 yuan/ton, closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,152 lots, a decrease of 15,274 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,909 lots, a decrease of 6 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,850 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,880 yuan/ton, closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day [2] Inventory - On August 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2][3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious manifestation of peak - season demand in the battery sector. Due to the relatively strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector under the influence of macro factors, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - On August 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.80/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin also showed varying degrees of decline. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, while waste battery prices decreased [1] 3.2 Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE lead contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,671 lots, an increase of 11,416 lots, and the position was 46,776 lots, a decrease of 1,336 lots. The night - session closing price increased by 0.33% compared to the afternoon closing price. After the decline in lead prices, downstream enterprises were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops, resulting in light overall spot trading [2] 3.3 Inventory - On August 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared to the same period last week. As of August 20, the LME lead inventory was 281,100 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report The current processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance. However, with relatively stable grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use buy - in - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Trump meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put downward pressure on LME copper prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On August 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,060 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a - 0.14% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the afternoon close of the previous day [1]. Spot Situation The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a supply - demand game. Shanghai's spot quotes had a premium of 170 - 280 yuan/ton over the 2509 contract, with an average premium of 225 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 79,160 - 79,400 yuan/ton. The import window opening brought a profit margin of 200 yuan/ton. Weekend arrivals increased Shanghai's inventory, and imported supplies were sufficient, but domestic copper circulation was still tight, supporting a strong spot premium. It is expected that today's spot premium may decline under pressure [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro: The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held on Friday, and Fed Chairman Powell will speak. Due to the resilience of US inflation and the employment market, there are large differences in short - term market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will have difficulty giving clear guidance on the future interest - rate path [3]. - Tariffs: Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods. India's Prime Minister Modi plans to reform the goods and services tax, simplifying four tax brackets to two. The German government said the US must reduce tariffs on European - made cars before finalizing a broader trade agreement [3]. - Mine: Marimaca Copper's new drilling in the Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile expanded the ore body. Codelco requested to restart operations at the El Teniente copper mine's Andes Norte and Diamante mines, and some mines have resumed operations [4]. - Smelting and Import: In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 190,796 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to July was 934,046 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase. Imports in July were 480,000 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase; the cumulative import from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Consumption: Last week, the domestic refined copper rod industry's operating rate rose to 70.61%, a 1.75 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but a 10.31 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. It is expected to rise to 71.79% next week. The copper cable enterprise's operating rate fell to 69.3%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and is expected to further drop to 67.6% next week [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 155,600 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 938 tons to 25,498 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 133,700 tons, an increase of 8,100 tons from the previous week [6][7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to use buy - in - hedging on dips in the range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton, but pay attention to the Putin - Trump meeting [8]. - Arbitrage: On hold [8]. - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation with various factors influencing prices. Supply is considered neutral, with potential for increased Chinese production in 2025/26 despite USDA's prediction of a double - decline. Demand is downward, as cotton prices are weaker than棉纱, and spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low. Inventory is in a neutral state, with the de - stocking speed accelerating. The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend, and opportunities for 11 - 1 reverse spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The USDA's July report shows that the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons. The US cotton planting area in 2025 will decrease by 12% year - on - year. China's 2025/26 cotton production is revised up by 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons, while import demand is reduced by 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. There is still room for an increase in China's cotton production due to good weather and strong expansion intentions in Xinjiang [6]. - **Demand**: Cotton prices are relatively weaker than 棉纱 this week, and the spot transaction price is falling. Spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low in the off - season, while weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: As of mid - July, the social cotton inventory is 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, with a month - on - month decline of 8.26%. The de - stocking speed is the fastest of the year. The industrial inventory of spinning mills continues to decline, and inland spinning mills are not enthusiastic about stocking raw materials [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 8,807, with 348 valid forecasts, and the total amount of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 366,200 tons, down from 384,600 tons on July 25 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price falls with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, due to the withdrawal of some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang and poor overall demand prospects, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - **Macro**: The previous macro - positive expectations in China have weakened. The Politburo meeting met market expectations, and there is no additional incremental stimulus. The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a significant month - on - month decline. Overseas, the June non - farm payrolls data was significantly revised down. The commodity attribute is bearish in the next few months, while the macro - attribute is gradually turning bullish, and the direction of interest rate cuts is certain [6]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend. It is advisable to lay out 11 - 1 reverse spreads at high levels [6]. 02. Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton supply and demand situation shows changes in various indicators such as inventory, production, consumption, etc. For example, the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.47 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 25.64 million tons [14]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The production of main cotton - producing countries such as China, the US, and India shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. China's cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 6.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.24% [15]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The demand of main cotton - consuming countries also shows different trends. For example, China's cotton consumption in 2025/26 is expected to be 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35% [16]. - **US Cotton Weather**: The USDA's planting intention report shows that the US cotton planting area in 2025 is expected to be 10.12 million acres, higher than market expectations, which brings pressure to the market [18]. - **US Inventory Cycle**: The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking, and the clothing inventory of wholesalers and retailers is turning from de - stocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to the relaxation of tariffs and previous import - rushing behaviors, the retailer inventory has reached a high point, weakening the continuous restocking behavior [29]. - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: Domestic new - year cotton planting area is expanding, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area shows an increasing trend [34]. - **Cotton Imports**: Cotton and 棉纱 imports are relatively low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas [35]. - **Cotton Industry Chain Inventory**: The inventory situation of the cotton industry chain includes the inventory of spinning mills and weaving mills, and the de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory is relatively fast [57]. - **Spinning Profits**: Spinning profits are still poor [45]. - **Industry Chain Downstream Startup Rates**: The startup rates of the downstream of the industry chain, including spinning mills and weaving mills, are also presented in the report [48][51]. - **Cotton and Substitute Price Spreads**: The price spreads between cotton and its substitutes are also analyzed [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].