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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Nickel: In the short term, nickel prices show a narrow - range oscillation, with contradictions still accumulating. The core lies in the game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy. The key to breaking the deadlock depends on the progress of Indonesian nickel ore supply governance and approval [5]. - Stainless Steel: The current fundamentals struggle to find upward drivers, but the downward space is limited. In the long - term, it may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand dual - weak exploration mode. In the short - term, it is expected to move within a low - level range [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the trading strategy is to sell short at high prices. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [34]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations still exist. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton next week [35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures contract price is strong. Although there are potential downward risks, it is expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategies include being bullish but not chasing the price in the single - side trading, positive spreads in the inter - period trading, and option hedging [67][69]. - Palm Oil: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Attention should be paid to the lower support [90]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is currently good, and the soybean complex lacks effective drivers [91]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy is intensifying. The supply of refined nickel shows a marginal increase and weak demand, while the non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply policy [5]. - Inventory: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1875 tons to 47505 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13152 tons to 250530 tons [9]. - Market News: There are various events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, sanctions on mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits, and new regulations on the RKAB approval process. Also, there is a claim of potential additional tariffs on China by the US [10][11][12]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers, but the cost limits the downward space. The demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply growth rate has declined compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory: In September, SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 153.2 million tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1% and a year - on - year change of +4%. On October 16, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 104.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The futures price was weakly oscillating, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8430 yuan/ton, and the SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton) [29]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows that the weekly industry inventory increased. In October, production is expected to increase month - on - month. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone in the short term, but overall, it is expected to be in a supply - demand dual - weak state [30][31][34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The futures price was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was stable. On Friday, the futures closed at 52340 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: In October, supply increased, but leading enterprises plan to cut production at the end of the month. The demand side shows that the silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly in October. The overall situation is expected to be in a relatively tight - balance state from November to December [31][33][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The futures contract price strengthened. The 2511 contract closed at 75700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2960 yuan/ton, while the spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 73350 yuan/ton [67]. - Supply and Demand: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The weekly production reached a new high, and the demand is generally optimistic until November, but it is necessary to pay attention to the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Market Situation: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Currently, the 01 contract shows a slight oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [90][91]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, it lacks independent drivers and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector, also fluctuating with Sino - US economic and trade relations [91].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In September 2025, the price of Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend. The average spot price dropped from 22,060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,770 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The core driving factors were the continuous realization of the logic of loose domestic supply, the increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, which led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - In September, Shanghai Zinc futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The monthly closing price of the main contract (ZN2510.SHF) dropped from 22,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.8%, and the settlement price also decreased by 1.7%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: narrow - range consolidation supported by macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month, a decline after the realization of the logic of loose supply and demand in the middle of the month, and a slight stabilization at the end of the month supported by pre - holiday restocking and low LME inventory. The core driving factors were the domestic supply surplus (increase in zinc ore imports and high smelting output), the under - performance of the peak demand season, and the pressure on social inventory accumulation, which led to the downward shift of the price center. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and low overseas inventory only provided periodic support [3] 1.2 Variety Market - Among the 13 contracts of Shanghai Zinc futures, the prices of each contract varied in September. The Shanghai Zinc 2509 contract rose, while the rest of the contracts declined, with fluctuations ranging from - 1000 points to 100 points. The position volume was 240,189 lots, an increase of 16,498 lots. The trading volume was about 4.418 million lots, an increase of about 810,000 lots compared with the previous month. Overall, the market trading was relatively active [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Price - In September, the spot price of Shanghai Zinc showed a trend of "stable at first, then weak, and a slight recovery at the end of the month". At the beginning of the month, boosted by the macro - interest rate cut expectation, the price oscillated in the range of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, as the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and the weakness of the peak demand season were realized, the price gradually dropped to around 21,700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the pre - holiday restocking of some downstream enterprises drove a slight rebound in the spot price, but it failed to reverse the monthly downward trend [8] 2.2 Basis Data - According to Wind statistics, the basis of Shanghai Zinc was mostly negative in September, with the spot at a discount to the futures. At the end of the month, the basis narrowed to + 5 yuan/ton (September 30), mainly driven by pre - holiday restocking. However, the average basis rate for the whole month was - 0.35%, indicating that the pattern of oversupply in the spot market remained unchanged [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - Supply side: The looseness of zinc ore was transmitted to refined zinc, and the output remained at a high level. The import of zinc ore increased significantly. From January to August, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrates increased by 43.06% year - on - year, and the import processing fee (TC) rebounded to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton. The looseness at the ore end supported the production at the smelting end. The output of refined zinc increased significantly. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic refined zinc increased by more than 9% year - on - year, and the scheduled production in September was close to 610,000 tons, with continuous release of supply pressure. Smelters were actively operating. The processing fee was at a two - year high, and with the supplement of by - product profits, smelters had strong production enthusiasm, and only some enterprises slightly reduced production due to maintenance [10] - Demand side: The "Golden September" peak season was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The recovery of the operating rate of the processing industry was limited. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month, but were all lower than the same period last year, and the PMI was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprises' procurement sentiment was cautious. Terminal demand was weak. Infrastructure growth was limited, real estate sales were sluggish, automobile sales declined year - on - year, and the export of galvanized sheets was restricted. The consumption boost in the peak season was less than expected. The pre - holiday restocking effect was short - lived. At the end of the month, some downstream enterprises stocked up for the National Day, and the spot trading improved slightly, but it failed to reverse the overall weak situation [11][12] 4. Market Outlook - The increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [13]