原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/22 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/08/15 | 62.80 | 65.85 | 68.61 | 0.63 | 0.55 | -3.05 | 0.53 | 207.25 | 21.20 | 222.50 | 27.60 | | 2025/08/18 | 63.42 | 66.60 | 68.94 | 0.69 | 0.59 | -3.18 | 0.24 | 209.87 | 21.55 | 224.03 | 27.49 | | 2025/08/19 | 62.35 | 65.79 | 68.59 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/14 | 63.96 | 66.84 | 69.08 | 0.65 | 0.68 | -2.88 | 0.38 | 210.92 | 21.75 | 223.45 | 27.01 | | 2025/08/15 | 62.80 | 65.85 | 68.61 | 0.63 | 0.55 | -3.05 | 0.53 | 207.25 | 21.20 | 222.50 | 27.60 | | 2025/08/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focused on the cease - fire negotiations in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policies has decreased. [7] - In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile. The supply of Russian crude oil should be monitored. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Oil Price Data - From August 11 - 15, 2025, WTI decreased by $1.16, BRENT by $0.99, and DUBAI by $0.47. SC increased by 4.40, and OMAN decreased by $0.83. [3] - The prices of other products such as domestic gasoline, Japanese naphtha, and Singapore fuel oil also had corresponding changes during this period. [3] b. Daily News - Trump said that the US had made significant progress with Russia and would hold a meeting with Zelensky next Monday. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", Trump temporarily did not consider imposing tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil. [6][7] - The Russian side said that the talks between Putin and Trump were very positive. If Putin opposes a cease - fire, the US may impose sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. [6] c. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 25.9 barrels per day to 357.7 barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 4.3 barrels to 1332.7 barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 303.6 barrels to 4.27 billion barrels, an increase of 0.72%. [7] - From August 8 - 14, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries increased, while the inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries increased month - on - month. [7]

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled for August 18 in Washington, following a previous contentious encounter in February [1][2] - Zelensky expressed that he had a "long and substantive" conversation with Trump and is prepared to discuss all details regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][4] - German Chancellor Merz stated that Zelensky is unlikely to face humiliation again during this meeting, and European leaders are expected to provide him with good advice [2][3] Group 2 - Reports indicate that during a meeting between Trump and Russian President Putin, Putin suggested he could relax some territorial claims in exchange for control over the Donetsk region [4][6] - Putin's conditions for ending the conflict include Ukraine withdrawing troops from eastern Donetsk, while Zelensky has rejected these demands, viewing Donetsk as a critical stronghold [6][10] - Ongoing military actions continue on the Russia-Ukraine front, with reports of significant casualties and military engagements in various regions [7][8][10]

Group 1 - President Trump calls for a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to pave the way for negotiations on a lasting peace agreement, threatening further sanctions if the ceasefire is violated [1] - Ukraine has expressed willingness to accept the immediate 30-day ceasefire proposed by the U.S., while Russia has only suggested a three-day ceasefire to coincide with the 80th anniversary of WWII [1] - Trump's comments highlight a focus on an immediate cessation of hostilities, contrasting with Vice President JD Vance's statement that the U.S. is moving away from a 30-day ceasefire obsession towards long-term solutions [1] Group 2 - Ukraine and its allies are urging the U.S. to increase pressure on Russia, including more restrictions on energy exports and oil revenues to compel compliance with Trump's ceasefire conditions [2] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the U.S. and EU have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, yet these measures have not succeeded in stopping Putin's military actions [2] - Vance indicated that both sides must make territorial concessions to end the conflict [2]