Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market saw PX prices rise significantly in the morning due to news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's potential maintenance, but prices dropped in the afternoon as the maintenance time was not confirmed and the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant, which had stopped last week, might resume earlier [1]. - The cost - end is affected by Powell's dovish stance and the Fed's increasing interest - rate cut expectations, with the macro - sentiment boosted. The fundamentals fluctuate around the prospects of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical conflict after the US - Russia meeting, showing an overall range - bound movement [2]. - In the PX sector, the PXN was $267/ton (a month - on - month decrease of $3.50/ton). With the recent recovery of China's PX load and increased PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened. However, PX remains in a low - inventory state, and there is support below the PXN [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 33 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 205 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main - contract disk was 359 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton). With increased PTA maintenance, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the September PTA balance sheet has shifted from a loose balance to significant de - stocking. Hengli's reduction of September contracts may cause supply - demand tension in the South China region [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.0% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%), showing signs of recovery. The inventory of filament factories has significantly decreased, and profitability has gradually improved. The load of bottle - grade polyester chips is expected to recover in September [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 41 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton), and the average load of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers has increased to 91.9%. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the willingness to chase up raw - material prices is insufficient [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips was 261 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 22 yuan/ton). The fundamentals have changed little, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term. The spot processing fee is expected to recover [3]. - In terms of strategies, a cautious and slightly bullish stance is recommended for PX/PTA/PF/PR. For cross - variety trading, consider going long on PF processing fees at a low price. There is no recommendation for cross - period trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents charts on the TA main - contract price, basis, and inter - period spread, as well as the PX main - contract price, basis, and inter - period spread, and the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][11][13] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Charts show the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Charts cover the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [27][29] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - The report provides information on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][37] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [39][42][43] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Information includes filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple - fiber load, polyester bottle - grade chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [51][53][62] 7. Detailed PF Data - Charts show the polyester staple - fiber load, polyester staple - fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple - fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory in - house inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory in - house inventory available days [73][76][83] 8. Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Information covers the polyester bottle - grade chip load, bottle - grade chip factory inventory days, bottle - grade chip spot processing fee, bottle - grade chip export processing fee, bottle - grade chip export profit, East China water - bottle - grade chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - grade chip spread, bottle - grade chip next - month spread, and bottle - grade chip next - next - month spread [94][96][103]

化工日报 | 2025-08-26 PTA震荡运行，现货基差上涨 市场分析 成本端，原鲍威尔立场突然转鸽，美联储降息预期升温，宏观情绪受到提振，基本面依旧围绕美俄会晤下俄乌地 缘冲突前景波动，整体区间震荡运行。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN270美元/吨(环比变动+0.50美元/吨）。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复，同时PTA检修增加下 PX平衡表由去库转为松平衡，基本面环比转弱,近月PX浮动价有所松动转弱，但PX整体仍处于低库存状态，考虑 到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购，PXN下方有支撑，继续关注窗口商谈和仓单情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 22 元/吨(环比变动+0元/吨），PTA现货加工费203元/吨（环比变动-26元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费378元/吨（环比变动+6元/吨），PTA检修增加下供需好转，9月PTA平衡表由松平衡转为大幅去库， 恒力减9月合约或引起华南区域供需紧张，关注该装置停车时长；需求端当前也陆续回暖，关注利润修复下检修装 置回归情况。 需求方面，聚酯开工率90.0%（环比+0.6%），当前需求呈现回暖迹象，外贸出货增加同时内销备货逐步启动，织造 加弹负荷进入上升通道，开机高点预 ...