Core Viewpoint - The recent 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction revealed weak market demand, raising concerns about the overall interest in U.S. debt securities [1][2] Group 1: Auction Results - The U.S. Treasury issued $25 billion in long-term bonds with a winning yield of 4.813%, exceeding pre-auction market yields by over 2 basis points, indicating investors' demand for higher returns [1] - Following the auction results, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.829%, reflecting investor disappointment and a decline in bond prices [1] - This marks the third consecutive weak auction this week, following lackluster demand in the 3-year and 10-year bond auctions [1] Group 2: Investor Participation - Primary dealers, seen as market "backstop buyers," subscribed to 17.5% of the issuance, the highest since August 2024, indicating they are taking on more of the subscription when other investors show less interest [2] - Indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, accounted for 59.5% of the auction, below the average of over 61% from the past three auctions [2] - Direct bidders, such as domestic pension funds, subscribed to 23%, slightly below recent averages [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The limited interest in the 30-year Treasury bonds is not surprising, as previous auctions in February, March, and May also faced weak demand due to the higher interest rate risk associated with long maturities [2] - The overall trend of weak demand across different maturities suggests that investors are dissatisfied with current Treasury yields, believing that fair value should be higher [2] - This situation poses challenges for the new administration, which is more focused on controlling federal borrowing costs, as weak demand may force the Treasury to issue bonds at higher rates, increasing government debt interest burdens [2]

最接近当前这一"史上最惨局面"的情况，还要追溯到遥远的1790年代，那时美国才建国十多年。当时美国开国元勋们不得不在一个新生且充满 不确定性的市场中进行债务重组，投资者要求为新兴的美利坚合众国所面临的风险，支付更高的收益率。 身为投资者，你是否还有印象，五年前的此时此刻，有着"全球资产定价之锚"的10年期美债收益率位于何方？ 这个答案如今看来，似乎都已有些不可思议…… 是的，当市场如今沉迷于加密货币的暴涨，并竞相预测股市何时会再创历史高点时，德意志银行策略师Jim Reid则提醒着我们，就在数年前， 美债交易价格也还处于历史高位！ 在Reid看来，8月4日其实是一个值得纪念的周年纪念日：恰好五年前，10年期美国国债收益率在这一天创下了历史新低。 正如Reid在他最近一期《让你惊叹的图表》中所展示的那样，自1790年有记录以来，10年期美国国债收益率从未像2020年8月4日达到的0.51% 那么低…… 而从如此低的票面利率起步，且自那以来收益率已上升了近400个基点。由于债券价格与收益率是负相关，收益率上升意味着券价的下跌。 Reid由此计算出，10年期美国国债(及其历史替代品)在这段时期创下了有记录以来最差的 ...

Group 1 - The euro experienced a short-term rise of approximately 20 points, approaching 1.1750, with overall narrow fluctuations and remaining roughly flat during the day [1] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index futures increased by 2.4%, while European bond prices declined [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.57%, the Dow Jones increased by 375 points or 0.84%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.39%, whereas the semiconductor index fell by 0.21% [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the US and EU are close to reaching an agreement regarding the 15% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on the EU [1] - The US and EU will eliminate tariffs on aircraft, spirits, and medical devices [1]