格隆汇10月8日｜道富集团公布，今年9月道富机构投资者风险偏好指标维持正数，连续五个月保持乐观 情绪，上月数值追平今年7月创下的2025年高点，反映投资者持续追逐风险资产，截至9月底长期投资者 在股票、固定收益及现金的资产配置基本维持不变，显示资金仍未回流长存续期债券，固定收益资产持 仓比重仍显著低于长期平均水平，意味着机构投资者仍持续增持高风险资产。 道富市场美洲宏观策略主管Lee Ferridge指出，外汇市场持续出现美元抛售，减持幅度创2021年初以来 新高，资金大举流向利差交易货币，投资者增持加元、澳元等高风险商品货币；股票方面北美市场最受 青睐，美股增持动能推高增持仓位，亚洲新兴市场股市买盘放缓。固定收益产品需求温和，但新兴市场 债券重获追捧。 ...

If the U.S. government shutdown is bothering investors, you wouldn’t know it by the stock market. In early morning trading on Thursday, the benchmark S&P 400 index was up 8% and appeared to be extending an already three-month winning streak. It’s not just the S&P, either. Both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were also up on the second day of post-shutdown trading, suggesting a collective shrug across broad sectors of the U.S. stock market. A benign reaction to the government shutdown sho ...

香港证监会与香港金管局9月25日联合发布香港的《固定收益及货币市场发展路线图》，通过促进需 求、流动性及创新，策略性定位香港成为全球固定收益及货币中心。《路线图》围绕四大支柱提出关键 措施，包括一级市场发行、二级市场流动性、离岸人民币业务及新一代基建。《路线图》提出十项倡 议，旨在巩固香港的现有优势，包括进一步吸引发行人以香港作为集资枢纽，并为发行人及投资者提供 风险管理及流动性管理工具；同时，《路线图》强调开拓新局面，包括提升离岸人民币的使用规模和流 动性，以及发展新一代金融基建以赋能市场创新。 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment suggests that a 60% equity, 20% fixed income, and 20% gold investment strategy is more effective in hedging against inflation risks, as the historical yield advantage of U.S. stocks over government bonds is at a low point [1][3] - The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio is being challenged, with gold now seen as a more valuable asset for resilience compared to U.S. Treasuries, while high-quality stocks can maintain profit growth in inflationary conditions [3] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a weak month for U.S. stocks, yet in 2023, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have repeatedly reached new highs [3] Group 2 - The return of alpha returns indicates a shift from a broad market movement to structural opportunities, allowing investors to achieve above-average returns through precise industry selection and stock picking, with gold providing foundational risk hedging [4] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,700 per ounce, setting a new historical record, driven by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guohe Xinneng (Beijing) Fund Management Co., Ltd. has reported fraudulent activities using its name, including the issuance of fake fixed-income products and illegal fundraising [1] Group 1 - The company has issued a statement on August 25, 2023, regarding the fraudulent activities [1] - The fraudulent activities include financial scams and the publication of false recruitment information [1] - The company has taken the matter seriously and has issued multiple clarifications through its official website since the beginning of 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which will lead to an overall increase in the valuation of A/H shares [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation Logic - The main contradiction in market expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to the decline in discount rates, particularly the risk-free interest rate [2]. - The high opportunity cost over the past three years has hindered investors' willingness to enter the market [2]. Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical examples from Japan and the United States show that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products [3]. - In China, each major market rally has been accompanied by a decline in risk-free interest rates, leading to increased capital inflow into the stock market [4]. Current Market Conditions - The current environment indicates that the conditions for a new round of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market are forming, driven by the decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - The anticipated decline in risk-free rates will likely lead to a broad-based increase in valuations across A/H shares, benefiting both blue-chip and growth stocks [5]. Future Outlook - The research suggests a strategic bullish outlook on China, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the shift in the main contradiction affecting market expectations [2][5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has initiated a public consultation on the draft amendments to the Securities and Futures (Financial Resources) Rules to implement capital requirements for licensed corporations engaged in over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives activities, aligning with international standards [1] - The proposed capital requirements for OTC derivatives have been adjusted based on recent modifications to Hong Kong's Banking (Capital) Rules and the Basel Framework, with significant reductions for capital requirements applicable to dealers and brokers [1] - The SFC aims to simplify the transfer pricing treatment for licensed corporations, reflecting feedback collected during the 2017 consultation [1] Group 2 - To support the business development and diversification of licensed corporations, the SFC suggests multiple amendments to the Financial Resources Rules, facilitating trading of mainland China and emerging market stocks, commodities, and carbon products, as well as digital asset futures and options on licensed virtual asset trading platforms [1] - The SFC proposes to exempt capital requirements for central clearing of repurchase transactions to promote central clearing in Hong Kong and enhance the development of the inter-dealer repo market [1] - The SFC emphasizes that aligning OTC derivatives capital requirements with global standards is crucial for reinforcing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center, believing that these forward-looking and inclusive proposals will facilitate innovation and support the ongoing development of offshore RMB, fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodity markets, as well as the digital asset market [2]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Cash Allocation - Global asset allocators plan to increase allocations to fixed income and cash in response to ongoing economic uncertainty and market volatility [1][2] - Over 60% of Asian fund managers intend to increase holdings in government and investment-grade bonds, while the appeal of equities is declining [1] - 43% of global fund managers expect higher returns from fixed income, with 37% planning to increase allocations during the anticipated rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2: Risk Appetite and Alternative Investments - There is a divide in risk appetite among fund managers, with 32% planning to increase risk exposure and 40% expecting to reduce it [2] - Despite a slowdown compared to the previous year, demand for alternative investments like private equity and private credit remains strong, with a net 22% of fund managers planning to increase allocations to private credit [2] - In Asia, over two-thirds of fund managers prefer direct and co-investments in private markets, reflecting a desire for greater control in a cautious market environment [2] Group 3: Equity Market Sentiment - Global asset allocators are less optimistic about equities compared to fixed income, with 45% expecting public equity returns to decline over the next 12 months [3] - Despite this, 34% of allocators plan to increase public equity allocations, with a focus on global equity strategies [3] - 73% of Asian fund managers anticipate increasing allocations to artificial intelligence, indicating strong investment demand in transformative technology sectors [3] Group 4: Real Estate Preferences - More than half of asset allocators expect no change in their real estate allocation over the next 12 months, with 20% intending to increase their allocations [4] - Asian fund managers favor investments in industrial and logistics facilities, as well as senior housing, while 62% see data centers as attractive investment opportunities [4] - The research reflects a contradictory viewpoint among asset allocators, who recognize the need to address rising risks but are not retreating, instead adjusting strategies to navigate prolonged uncertainty [4]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in insurance purchases in Hong Kong is driven by the impending regulatory change that will lower the illustrated yield cap for participating insurance policies from 7% to 6.5% starting July 1, 2023, leading to a rush among mainland clients to secure policies before the change takes effect [1][7][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of mainland clients traveling to Hong Kong for insurance has significantly increased, with reports of long queues at insurance companies as clients rush to finalize their policies before the new regulations [2][5][6]. - Insurance agents are capitalizing on the "last window period" narrative, promoting the urgency to purchase policies with higher illustrated yields before the regulatory change [9][10]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority has issued guidelines that will limit the illustrated yield for Hong Kong dollar participating policies to 6% and for non-Hong Kong dollar policies to 6.5%, effective July 1, 2023 [7][10]. - The new regulations aim to address the significant gap between high illustrated yields and actual returns, as many policies have not met their projected performance [11][13]. Group 3: Product Performance - Despite the high illustrated yields, actual performance data shows that around 40% of participating insurance products in Hong Kong have not achieved their projected returns, with actual dividend realization rates fluctuating between 85% and 107% [12][13]. - The long-term nature of these insurance products means that achieving the illustrated yields often requires decades, with some policies needing up to 100 years to realize the higher returns [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that 2025 is a critical year for the public fund industry, with the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" driving systemic changes in the industry [3][10] - Enhancing investor satisfaction is identified as a cornerstone for the healthy development of the industry and a core pursuit for the company [3][4] Group 2 - The "Action Plan" focuses on aligning the interests of fund managers and investors, shifting the industry from a "scale-first" approach to a "return-first" transformation [4] - The company aims to differentiate itself through exceptional customer experience, which is crucial for building a strong brand image and accumulating a good reputation [4] Group 3 - The company believes that commercial interests and customer interests are complementary rather than adversarial, with long-term customer trust being essential for sustainable commercial development [5] - A diversified product system is being constructed to cater to market trends and customer risk preferences, ensuring that clients with different risk tolerances can find suitable options [5] Group 4 - The company integrates the "customer profitability first" philosophy into all operational aspects, including investment research, sales, and product supply [6] - A unified research platform is being developed to enhance research efficiency and support a team-based management model, fostering innovation among research personnel [6] Group 5 - The company is addressing challenges posed by short-term performance fluctuations by enhancing investor education and communication, ensuring that marketing personnel prioritize investor protection and education [7] - Increased live educational sessions are being organized to help investors manage their emotions during market volatility [7] Group 6 - The implementation of the "Action Plan" presents new development opportunities for small and medium-sized fund companies, with the company leveraging its flexible mechanisms and market insights to achieve breakthroughs in niche areas [8] - The company is focusing on "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" strategies to build competitive advantages, particularly in quantitative investment [8] Group 7 - The company calls for regulatory support for small and medium-sized fund companies, including the establishment of innovation development funds and expedited product approval processes [9] - It advocates for more collaborative platforms within the industry to enhance management capabilities and business skills among smaller firms [9] Group 8 - The company is committed to adhering to policy requirements and fulfilling social responsibilities, with a focus on optimizing interest alignment mechanisms and fee structures to lower investment costs and enhance returns [10] - There is an emphasis on product innovation to meet diverse investment needs and strengthen research capabilities through the integration of financial technology [10]