智通财经APP注意到，华尔街的宏观交易员正迈向自2009年以来业绩最佳的一年，因客户纷纷押注全球 各大央行利率政策的转变。 根据Crisil Coalition Greenwich的数据，高盛集团、摩根大通和花旗集团等公司今年预计将从固定收益、 信贷和大宗商品交易中产生1650亿美元的收入，较2024年增长10%。 全球央行的利率调整、关税政策的不确定性、对财政赤字膨胀的担忧以及收益率曲线趋陡，尤其扩大了 利率交易员的费用池。在十国集团利率业务中，收入预计将达到400亿美元的五年来高点。 Coalition Greenwich预计2026年将出现类似的大幅增长，届时行业收入预计为1620亿美元，仅下降2%。 高盛欧洲利率产品交易主管尼基尔·乔拉利亚在接受采访时表示："央行正在将其政策利率和资产负债表 正常化，但尚未正常化的是庞大的发行规模。这些情况大多会持续存在。我们没有理由认为我们在2025 年看到的活跃水平不会在2026年重现。" 固定收益交易员有望迎来2009年以来最好的一年 新兴市场宏观交易员预计将获得至少20年来最大的350亿美元收入。信贷交易员预计将获得270亿美元， 大宗商品交易员预计将获得11 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company generated EUR 340 million of operating capital generation, a 1% increase year-on-year [3][10] - Free cash flow amounted to EUR 76 million, primarily reflecting the share of ASR's 2025 interim dividend [10] - Cash capital at holding remained strong at EUR 1.9 billion, despite returning over EUR 800 million to shareholders [4][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Americas, operating capital generation increased by 6%, or 12% on a constant currency basis, driven by strategic assets and stable financial assets [10][11] - Life sales at World Financial Group (WFG) increased by 15%, and annuity sales rose by 9%, supported by strong consumer demand [7] - In the U.K., net deposits in the workplace platform turned negative for the first time in two years due to the departure of two large low-margin schemes [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. retirement plans business reached $251 billion in assets under administration (AUA), with mid-sized plans increasing to $62 billion [44] - New life sales in Brazil continued to grow, particularly in credit and group life products, although offset by currency movements [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Transamerica into America's leading middle-market life insurance and retirement company [5] - Plans to enhance the advisor platform and return it to growth by 2028, despite current challenges [8][56] - The company is reviewing a potential relocation of its legal domicile and head office to the United States, with updates expected at the Capital Markets Day [4][5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about achieving all financial targets for 2025, despite the weakening of the US dollar [4][16] - The company is focused on improving cash flow predictability and managing remittances from business units [36][37] - Mortality assumptions are being monitored closely, with recent outcomes aligning with expectations [47][48] Other Important Information - The company executed over half of its ongoing EUR 400 million share buyback program, expecting to complete it by December 15 [4][15] - The RBC ratio in the U.S. increased to 425%, with operating capital generation contributing positively [13][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term care book assumptions and cash conversion - Management confirmed that the actual to expected claims ratio for long-term care is 97%, and they are satisfied with their assumptions [21][22] - Cash conversion from the U.S. is targeted for mid-single-digit growth, with investments impacting total capital generation [24] Question: Strategic assets and capital employed in financial assets - The reduction in capital employed in financial assets is attributed to the implementation of a base fee hedge and favorable equity markets [29][30] - Earnings on in-force for distribution and savings & investments are down due to margin pressure and mortality movements [32] Question: Stranded costs and payout ratio - Management indicated that stranded costs are a consideration in financial asset management, with further details expected at the Capital Markets Day [37] - The payout ratio is expected to improve over time as the quality of businesses enhances [36] Question: Variable annuities and mortality exposure - The company is monitoring the flooring issue in variable annuities and has not taken action yet, but will explore options if necessary [46] - Mortality outcomes have been favorable, with management confident in their assumptions [48] Question: UK market developments and RBC ratio - The UK advisor platform is targeted for growth by 2028, with positive reception to improvements made [56] - The RBC ratio is currently at a satisfactory level, with no immediate need for capital injection [57]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market sentiment index has rebounded to around 50%, suggesting a recovery from overly pessimistic trading structures, leading to a neutral market phase [3][8][6] - The report draws parallels between the current market conditions and those of 2019, suggesting that the end-of-year market performance may partially replicate that of 2019, although achieving similar slopes and amplitudes will require additional conditions [5][28][27] Market Dynamics - The market has continued to extend duration amid fluctuations, with the median duration of long-term bond funds rising for four consecutive weeks, nearing year-to-date highs [3][8] - The report highlights that the current market divergence remains high, indicating a healthier microstructure compared to previous peaks [3][8] Historical Comparison - The report compares the macroeconomic backgrounds and interest rate trends of 2019 and 2025, noting that both years experienced significant interest rate declines in the preceding year, leading to a transition from a strong bull market to a more volatile phase [9][4] - It emphasizes that the economic and policy environments differ between the two years, particularly in terms of credit cycles and monetary policy space [5][28] Fundamental Analysis - The report identifies that both years faced similar fundamental and event-driven factors, with 2019's interest rate movements influenced by economic data and trade tensions, while this year's trajectory has mirrored those influences [14][16] - The report notes that the current credit cycle is still stabilizing, contrasting with the mild expansion seen in the latter half of 2019 [17][28] Policy and Funding Environment - The report discusses the importance of monetary policy and funding conditions, indicating that unexpected rate cuts and liquidity during the year-end period in 2019 significantly influenced market performance [23][28] - It suggests that the current monetary policy environment is less conducive to similar outcomes unless there are unexpected rate cuts or significant shifts in funding rates [28][23] Trading Sentiment - The report highlights that market sentiment has shown a consistent recovery pattern, with the sentiment index rising from approximately 33% to around 50%, indicating a potential for sustained recovery [23][25] - It also notes that the current micro trading structure is moderately healthy, but the lack of additional easing policies may limit the market's upward potential [23][28] Technical Analysis - The report provides statistical insights into the likelihood of mean reversion following significant monthly interest rate movements, suggesting that large fluctuations in a volatile market often do not lead to sustained trends [26][27] - It indicates that the current market is in a transitional phase, with the potential for interest rates to revert to mean levels following significant movements [26][27]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was ¥515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to ¥136.6 billion and net income decreased 12% to ¥92.1 billion [3] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10% and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were ¥30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, achieving the quantitative target for 2030 for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][20] - Income before income taxes in international regions rose 63% to ¥44.9 billion, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of profitability [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased 10% to ¥116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to ¥45.5 billion, the highest in about 10 years [7] - Investment Management net revenue reached ¥60.8 billion, up 20%, and income before income taxes amounted to ¥30.7 billion, up 43% [9] - Wholesale division net revenue came to ¥279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management saw a net inflow of ¥289.5 billion, totaling ¥26.2 trillion at the end of September [8][9] - Investment Management achieved assets under management exceeding ¥100 trillion, with net inflows amounting to ¥498 billion [10] - The overall trend in the market showed strong client activity and revenue growth, particularly in equities and investment banking [12][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [21] - The focus remains on self-sustained growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [27][41] - The management is proactive in enhancing security measures to protect against phishing scams, which have impacted profits [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose steeply, contributing to strong earnings [20] - There is an expectation of continued strong performance in Wealth Management and Investment Banking, with a solid pipeline of opportunities [21][44] - The management is cautious about potential normalization in equity performance but remains optimistic about maintaining stable revenues [39][41] Other Important Information - The company plans to pay a dividend of ¥27 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 40.3% [6] - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to ¥378.8 billion, with compensation and benefits rising due to performance-linked bonuses [15] - The CET1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-acquisition of Macquarie Group's U.S. asset management business [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - The CFO acknowledged that compensation and benefits increased due to bonuses linked to earnings and larger-than-usual retirement payments [26] - Regarding the CET1 ratio, the company remains committed to a 40% dividend payout and a total payout ratio of 50% or above, balancing shareholder returns with investment opportunities [27] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - The CFO explained that while credit trading contributed solidly to revenue, the company is mindful of concentration risks and is selective in deal-making [29][30] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - The CFO indicated that fixed income trends are strong, and overall Wholesale division revenue is expected to remain stable [35] - The increase in tax burden is attributed to various technical issues, with the CFO unable to provide detailed explanations [36] Question: Sustainability of equity product revenue - The CFO noted strong performance in equities across regions, with expectations for some normalization in the future [39][40] Question: Investment Banking pipeline and ROE - The CFO highlighted a strong advisory pipeline in Japan and international markets, with expectations for continued strength in DCM [45] - The base ROE is gradually improving, and while discussions about raising targets are ongoing, the focus remains on maintaining at least 8% ROE [47]

Market Overview - The major index headlines may not fully reflect the underlying market dynamics, with significant movements occurring beneath the surface since mid-September [2] - There has been a lot of volatility and unwinding in momentum trades, which have been tracked throughout the year [2][3] - The concentration in mega-cap stocks has contributed to the stability of the major indices despite the volatility [3] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic picture remains resilient and strong, with potential tailwinds that could accelerate the economy into next year [4][5] - Factors such as fiscal spending, monetary policy easing, and deregulation may enhance capital expenditure, particularly in AI-related sectors [5] - A stable labor market and inflation picture could foster a more bullish market sentiment [5] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to rebalance their portfolios, moving away from high exposure to momentum stocks [6] - There is a recommendation to increase allocation to the middle part of the yield curve in fixed income, anticipating lower interest rates [6] - Maintaining high-quality investments is advised due to current volatility and low historical credit spreads [7] Equity Market Focus - It is suggested to reduce exposure to mega-cap stocks and consider non-cap weighted strategies [8] - Investors should focus on profitable companies, particularly within the Russell 2000 index, which contains many firms that do not generate earnings [9] - Careful stock selection is crucial for identifying companies with potential earnings growth for the upcoming year [9]

Core Insights - Asian ultra-wealthy investors are adjusting their investment strategies by significantly increasing allocations to Chinese stocks, fixed income products, and gold, aiming to capitalize on growth opportunities from artificial intelligence while hedging against market volatility and interest rate changes [1][7] Investment Trends - The total wealth of Asian ultra-wealthy individuals (net worth of at least $30 million) surged by 10% in the first half of the year, leading to increased interest in the rising Chinese stock market [1][6] - The Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index has risen approximately 26% this year, while the CSI 300 Index in mainland China has climbed nearly 15% [2][6] Shift in Focus - There is a notable shift in investment focus from U.S. assets to Chinese assets, driven by high valuations of U.S. AI stocks and the phenomenon of "circular investment" among U.S. tech giants [2][4] - The proportion of stock trading concentrated in U.S. listed stocks has decreased from 65% last year to 45% this year, with an equal focus on Chinese stocks [4] Preference for Structured Products - Wealthy investors are increasingly favoring structured products, such as yield enhancement products, for stock allocation rather than direct equity purchases [5] Fixed Income and Gold Investments - As developed countries and Asia enter a rate-cutting cycle, interest in fixed income products among Asian investors has increased, with a shift towards global investment-grade bonds [7] - Gold investments are also on the rise, with prices exceeding $4,300 per ounce this year, marking a more than 60% increase [7][8] Cryptocurrency Sentiment - Despite Asia's leading position in cryptocurrency applications, there is a notable lack of interest among Asian ultra-wealthy individuals, with many viewing the high volatility and risk of digital assets as deterrents [9]

Core Insights - State Street Corporation's institutional investor risk appetite indicator remained positive in September, marking five consecutive months of optimistic sentiment, with the latest value matching the 2025 high reached in July [1] - As of the end of September, long-term investors maintained their asset allocation in equities, fixed income, and cash, indicating that funds have not returned to long-duration bonds, with fixed income holdings significantly below long-term averages, suggesting a continued preference for high-risk assets among institutional investors [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market has seen significant dollar selling, with the reduction reaching the highest level since early 2021, as funds flow into carry trade currencies, with investors increasing their positions in high-risk commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar [1] - In the equity market, North America remains the most favored region, with increased buying momentum in U.S. stocks pushing up positions, while buying in Asian emerging market stocks has slowed [1] - Demand for fixed income products is moderate, but emerging market bonds have regained popularity among investors [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience in the face of the government shutdown, with the S&P 400 index up 8% and continuing a three-month winning streak [1] - Market experts anticipate a muted reaction from equity markets initially, while bond markets may see a slight decrease in yields [2] - Historical patterns indicate that the duration of the shutdown will significantly impact market sentiment, with longer shutdowns likely causing more damage [3] Market Reactions - The current government shutdown is the 14th since 1981, and while it can lead to market declines, the immediate impact appears limited [4] - If the shutdown persists, retail investors may become more cautious, while experienced investors might look for leverage opportunities [5] Potential Market Winners and Losers - In the event of an extended shutdown, alternative investments such as gold and cryptocurrencies may see increased interest as investors seek safer options [6] - Government bonds and fixed-income products are expected to perform well, with rising prices and falling yields due to a flight-to-safety trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly released the "Roadmap for the Development of Fixed Income and Money Markets" on September 25, aiming to strategically position Hong Kong as a global hub for fixed income markets through enhanced demand, liquidity, and innovation [1] Group 1: Key Measures - The roadmap outlines four main pillars: primary market issuance, secondary market liquidity, offshore RMB business, and next-generation infrastructure [1] - Ten initiatives are proposed to consolidate Hong Kong's existing advantages, including attracting issuers to use Hong Kong as a fundraising hub and providing risk management and liquidity management tools for issuers and investors [1] Group 2: New Developments - The roadmap emphasizes exploring new opportunities, such as increasing the scale and liquidity of offshore RMB usage and developing next-generation financial infrastructure to empower market innovation [1]

Group 1 - The current market environment suggests that a 60% equity, 20% fixed income, and 20% gold investment strategy is more effective in hedging against inflation risks, as the historical yield advantage of U.S. stocks over government bonds is at a low point [1][3] - The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio is being challenged, with gold now seen as a more valuable asset for resilience compared to U.S. Treasuries, while high-quality stocks can maintain profit growth in inflationary conditions [3] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a weak month for U.S. stocks, yet in 2023, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have repeatedly reached new highs [3] Group 2 - The return of alpha returns indicates a shift from a broad market movement to structural opportunities, allowing investors to achieve above-average returns through precise industry selection and stock picking, with gold providing foundational risk hedging [4] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,700 per ounce, setting a new historical record, driven by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar [3]