证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 中美地缘关税缓和叠加美联储鹰派降息，工 业金属高位震荡 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（10 月 27 日-10 月 31 日），有色板块本周上涨 2.56%，在全部一级 行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上 涨 6.31%，小金属板块上涨 3.47%，工业金属板块上涨 1.91%，金属新材料板块上 涨 0.98%，贵金属板块上涨 0.61%。工业金属方面，地缘贸易局势的缓解，我们认 为当下宏观情绪对工业金属价格的主导仍偏为乐观态势，但在产业旺季末期，以及 工业金属价格高位震荡背景下，进一步的上行空间将依赖于海内外产业供需逻辑的 演绎。贵金属方面，美联储鹰派降息叠加中美地缘贸易局势缓解，贵金属价格回调， 但在 JH 会议后，在通胀无显著上行的基准情形下，我们认为 12 月最终降息概率 较大，整体宏观框架仍属做多窗口期，贵金属中期逻辑依旧通顺，看好回调后后市 行情。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：LME 计划设立限仓政策引发短期抛盘，供给端扰断频出铜价趋势上行不改 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, aiming to support the capital market [1] - The central bank combined two monetary policy tools for capital market support, increasing the total quota to 800 billion yuan, which includes 500 billion yuan for securities fund insurance company swaps and 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase loans [1] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration plans to expand the pilot scope for long-term investment by insurance funds, introducing more incremental capital into the market [1] Group 2 - Institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market, expecting a systematic decline in risk premiums, driven by lower risk-free rates and capital market reforms [1] - Key factors for the stock market recovery include a clearer understanding of the economic situation by investors, the conclusion of intense overseas disruptions, and positive signals from internal policy meetings [1] - Huatai Securities forecasts a significant year-on-year increase in net profits for major brokerages in Q1 2025, with a 92% rise in net profit attributable to the parent company and a 51% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items [1] Group 3 - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from continued expansion of financial investment scales, with a focus on three main themes: ongoing balance sheet expansion, growth in investment contributions, and recovery of light capital businesses [1] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds in the market increased by 71% year-on-year in Q1, indicating improved brokerage net income and investment banking performance [1] - The political bureau's meeting emphasizes the importance of a stable and active capital market, with supportive policies expected to continue, particularly for leading brokerages with strong balance sheet management and steady performance growth [1] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the brokerage sector include Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), China International Capital Corporation (03908), CITIC Securities (06030), Everbright Securities (06178), and CITIC Construction Investment Securities (06066) [2]