港股晨报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 大市成交金额 925 亿元，主板总卖空金额约 129 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交 金额约 15.83%。南向资金流（北水）方面，12 月 24 日净流出约 12 亿元。港 股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是中芯国际 981.HK、农业银行 1288.HK、华虹半导体 1347.HK；净卖出最多的是中国移动 941.HK、腾讯控 股 700.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK。 板块方面，半导体股成为当日亮点，领涨大市。受惠于全球 AI 算力需求的持 续释放以及国产替代逻辑的深化，资金对芯片制造与设计环节展现出浓厚兴趣， 半导体龙头股均录得不错涨幅。相比之下，大型科网股走势分化，板块整体缺 乏统一方向。周期与能源板块内部亦出现明显分歧。电力股受益于冬季用电高 峰预期及政策支持，走势强劲；而煤炭股则普遍承压下行。原材料领域，锂电 池产业链延续弱势，但有色金属板块受大宗商品价格反弹及供应端约束提振， 铝业与铜金矿企多数上扬。总体而言，年末港股受假期流动性影响，交投相对 清淡，主要呈现科技成长与周期资源交替活跃的特征。虽然短期面临全球宏观 波动的不确定性，但港股当前估 ...

[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告 海南封关叠加旺季红利，重点关注免税板块 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 22 日 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事件点评 [Table_StockAndRank] 免税 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 范欣悦 商社行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 商社行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮 箱：luyaning@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 海南封关叠加旺季红利，重点关注免税板块 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 22 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 事件：ummar海南自由贸易港于 y] ...

12月18日，海南全岛正式封关运作。 这标志着海南自贸港建设迈入全新阶段，全岛在海关监管制度上正式成为"境内关外"区域，实行"一线 放开、二线管住、岛内自由"。 封关后，海南与境外间的"一线"进口商品零关税目录得到大幅扩容：享惠商品税目将从约1900个大幅扩 大至约6600个，约占全部商品的74%，比封关前提高53%。 享惠主体进一步扩大，基本覆盖全岛有实际进口需求的各类企事业单位及民办非企业单位。 当下的海南岛与消费者期望中的"免税天堂"还有一段距离。 此次封关后的"零关税"主要免除进口环节关税、增值税和消费税，中心目标是促进产业发展，与面向旅 客的 "离岛免税"政策是两套独立体系。 新增商品范围也更多集中在原材料与半成品领域，而非服饰、香化、箱包等常见消费品。 因此无论是免税渠道还是有税渠道的购物体验，均不会受到大的冲击。 不过，作为海南建设"国际旅游消费中心"的核心引擎，离岛免税板块仍因此"牵一发而动全身"。 海南岛逐步开放的进程，更将免税龙头中国中免推向一个挑战与机遇深度交织的重要关口。 海南机遇 在众多运营商中，中国中免是布局最早、投入最重的市场主导者。 海南现有12家离岛免税店，中免独占半数席位， ...

Core Points - The 2025 China International Tourism Trade Fair will be held in Haikou, Hainan from December 19 to 21, marking its first occurrence in Hainan [1] - The event is expected to attract over 100 countries and regions, with participation from 1,000 international and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan travel agents, as well as 300 domestic exhibitors and key enterprise representatives [1] - The total exhibition area will be 65,000 square meters, featuring five exhibition zones including domestic, international, Sunshine Hainan, cultural tourism integration, and inbound tourism consumption [1] Hainan's Participation - Hainan will set up a Sunshine Hainan exhibition area covering over 12,000 square meters, showcasing unique resources and tourism products [2] - The Sunshine Hainan area will include various functional zones such as a main hall, six major travel route exhibition areas, a tourism enterprise area, and immersive experience spaces [2] - The fair will focus on promoting Hainan's duty-free shopping, medical tourism, and education brands, integrating local intangible cultural heritage and sports tourism projects [2] Global Outreach and Activities - Hainan is leveraging its 29 overseas tourism promotion offices to invite guests and expand participation from global enterprises [3] - The event will feature diverse activities including professional negotiations, live promotions, and a "Hainan Night" promotional event to showcase tourism policies post-free trade port closure [3] - Six themed travel routes will be introduced, highlighting Hainan's cultural and tourism resources, aimed at attracting more international travel agents [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the duty-free industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The duty-free industry in China is entering a new cycle, driven by policy support and a recovery in consumer confidence, particularly in Hainan's duty-free sales, which saw a significant increase in recent months [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Hainan Duty-Free and Market Value Fluctuations - Hainan's duty-free sales experienced a CAGR of 39% from 2011 to 2019, peaking at 49.5 billion in 2021, but faced a decline of 37% from this peak by 2024 due to various factors [1][12][13]. Policy Changes - Recent policy adjustments have expanded both offshore and onshore duty-free shopping, allowing for more flexible purchasing options and an increase in product categories, which is expected to stimulate demand [2][23][29]. Demand Side Analysis - The stabilization of asset prices is leading to a wealth effect that is positively impacting high-end consumption, with luxury brands like LVMH and Hermès showing signs of recovery in the Chinese market [2][31][32]. Supply Side Developments - Leading companies in the industry are strengthening their operational capabilities during this downturn, with China Duty Free Group stabilizing its revenue and gross margin while expanding its product offerings [3][34]. Channel Developments - China Duty Free Group holds a 78% market share across all channels, with upcoming contract renewals for key airport duty-free operations that could reshape the competitive landscape [3][36][38].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) shares rose over 3%, currently up 3.62% at HKD 74.4, with a trading volume of HKD 179 million, driven by the upcoming launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's closure operations on December 18 [1] Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port Developments - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its closure operations, with preparations progressing smoothly and foundational conditions in place [1] - Key policies and supporting documents, including the import tax product catalog and tax policies for goods flow, have been established [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping is experiencing a recovery, with shopping amounts reaching CNY 506 million and visitor numbers at 72,900 from November 1 to 7, marking increases of 34.86% and 3.37% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The growth is attributed to a low base effect, new offshore duty-free policies, large events like concerts, and promotional activities [1] - The decline in Japanese tourism is expected to redirect some overseas shopping demand back to Hainan, alongside a wealth effect from the stock market this year, benefiting winter tourism and duty-free sales in Hainan [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) saw a stock increase of over 6%, closing at 75 HKD with a trading volume of 1.2 billion HKD, driven by positive developments in Hainan's duty-free shopping policies [1] Group 1: Duty-Free Sales Performance - In the first week of the new Hainan duty-free policy (from November 1 to 7), the Haikou Customs reported a total duty-free shopping amount of 5.06 billion RMB, with 72,900 shoppers, representing year-on-year increases of 34.86% and 3.37% respectively [1] - The sales situation in Hainan's duty-free sector is showing marginal improvement, with ongoing optimization of duty-free policies indicating a potential turning point for the industry [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially commence full island closure operations on December 18, which is expected to open a new chapter in Hainan's external openness [1] - The duty-free policy remains a core pillar of Hainan's consumer market, with immediate purchases by island residents and the inclusion of international travelers expected to drive the recovery and development of the duty-free sector [1] - The integration of outbound and inbound duty-free policies is anticipated to resolve bottlenecks in city-based duty-free stores, paving the way for a new five-year growth phase for the duty-free industry [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with the ChiNext index showing particularly poor performance. As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.03% to 3996.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.59% and 2.13%, respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.454 trillion yuan, an increase of 188.3 billion yuan compared to the same period of the previous trading day [2]. Sector Performance - The chemical sector continues to show strength, with companies like Chengxing Co. achieving three consecutive trading limit increases. The consumer sector is also recovering, with stocks such as China Duty Free Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Kuaijishan hitting their daily price limits. Local stocks in Fujian province remain active, with Mindong Electric Power achieving four limit increases in five days. Conversely, sectors like computing hardware and humanoid robots are experiencing significant declines [4][6]. Key Stocks - China Duty Free Group, a leading player in the duty-free market, saw its stock price surge to a limit increase, closing at 86.89 yuan per share with a trading volume of 7.346 billion yuan, bringing its total market capitalization close to 180 billion yuan. The H-shares of China Duty Free also performed strongly, with an intraday increase exceeding 13% [7][10]. Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance released a report on November 7, indicating that it will continue to implement measures to boost consumption, including providing financial subsidies for personal consumption loans in key sectors. This is expected to stimulate demand in areas such as elderly care and childcare services. The new duty-free policy in Hainan has shown promising results, with a reported duty-free shopping amount of 506 million yuan and 72,900 shoppers in the first week of implementation, marking year-on-year increases of 34.86% and 3.37%, respectively [10]. Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical sector is witnessing a robust performance, particularly in phosphorus-related products, with prices reaching a three-month high of 22,700 yuan per ton as of November 7. The operating rate of the domestic iron phosphate industry has reached 81.6%, a year-on-year increase of 30.1 percentage points. Analysts suggest that the chemical sector is currently trading based on three main themes: the demand for energy storage driving industry chain prosperity, ongoing self-discipline within the chemical industry, and the high growth potential of core business operations [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) shares rose by 5.46% to HKD 71.50, with a trading volume of HKD 490 million, reflecting positive market sentiment ahead of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure operation starting December 18, 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Context - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially launch its full closure operation, which is expected to open a new chapter in external openness for Hainan [1] - The offshore duty-free policy remains a core pillar of Hainan's consumer market, allowing residents to purchase and immediately pick up international goods [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - CITIC Securities indicates that China Duty Free Group is actively planning for its development in 2026 to capitalize on the anticipated opportunities from Hainan's closure [1] - Despite weak consumer sentiment, the expected active capital market may support luxury goods sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 70.05 HKD with a transaction volume of 263 million HKD, driven by the upcoming full closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 this year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The full closure of Hainan is expected to usher in a new chapter of openness, with the offshore duty-free policy remaining a core pillar of Hainan's consumer market [1] - The inclusion of international travelers in the duty-free shopping policy is anticipated to boost the recovery and development of the offshore duty-free sector [1] Group 2: Company Performance - According to Shenwan Hongyuan's research report, China Duty Free Group's profits were under pressure in the first three quarters, but there are signs of stabilization with monthly sales in core Hainan business showing year-on-year growth and an increase in market share [1] - The revenue began to rebound in the third quarter, supported by the ongoing recovery of airport channels and the opening of new large-scale city duty-free stores, which are expected to provide new growth momentum for the company [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term value of the company is viewed positively due to the expected increase in business traffic following the closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, as well as the company's multi-channel strategy encompassing "Hainan + airport + online + city" [1]