Key Points - The report emphasizes an overweight rating for the consumer services sector, highlighting a new phase of travel transformation driven by high demand for themed tourism [1][5] - The consumer services index has shown stability with a slight decline of 3.43% as of June 13, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index [7][16] - The report suggests that the consumer services industry is experiencing a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices, leading to greater pressure on corporate profitability and necessitating transformation [7][68] Sector Investment Strategy Consumer Services Sector Overview - The consumer services index has been relatively stable since the beginning of 2025, with a recent underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [16][17] - The tourism and hospitality sectors have weakened due to declining per capita travel spending [7][16] Tourism and OTA - Domestic travel demand has rebounded significantly, with 1.794 billion domestic trips in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.43% [25] - The average travel expenditure per person in Q1 2025 was 1,003.34 yuan, indicating a decline from previous trends due to the rapid increase in travel frequency [25][26] - The report anticipates that the demand for self-driving and short-distance travel will continue to rise, with a focus on experiential tourism rather than traditional sightseeing [25][69] Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free market in Hainan has seen a decline in sales, but the rate of decline is narrowing, with sales of 13.33 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, down 10.75% year-on-year [32][33] - The report notes that the average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free shopping has rebounded, reaching 8,319 yuan, a 25.11% increase compared to the previous year [33] - The international travel market is recovering, benefiting airport duty-free shops, with significant growth in international passenger traffic at major airports [37][38] Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is facing increased competition due to rapid supply growth, with the number of hotel facilities reaching 570,100 by the end of 2024, a 6.87% decrease year-on-year [42][44] - The report highlights that leading hotel groups are maintaining strong performance despite price competition primarily affecting budget hotels [42][51] - The expansion of chain hotels in lower-tier markets is expected to continue, with major hotel groups increasing their market presence [54][55] Human Resources Services - The report indicates a slight increase in employment pressure, particularly among recent graduates, with policies aimed at promoting employment expected to be introduced [57][61] - The human resources service market is projected to grow, with a market size of 2.76 trillion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 5.03 trillion yuan by 2028 [65][66] - The integration of AI in human resources services is anticipated to enhance efficiency in recruitment and management processes [66][67] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong demand, such as scenic spots and OTA, as well as the hotel sector, which is expected to expand despite competitive pressures [68][69] - Specific stocks to watch include Long White Mountain (603099), Emei Mountain A (000888), and China Duty Free (601888) [69]

随着海南自贸港全岛封关运作的临近，各项政策红利正加速落地，离岛免税市场作为自贸港国际旅游消 费中心建设的核心组成部分，呈现出蓬勃发展的态势。数据显示，近年来离岛免税市场规模持续扩大， 预计2027年海南离岛免税经营主体销售额将超600亿元，成为海南经济增长的重要引擎。海南发展作为 海南控股承诺注入免税资产的上市平台，正迎来历史性发展机遇。海南控股通过增持股份，不仅为后续 免税资产注入及全球精品业务整合奠定了坚实基础，更旨在通过资本层面的支持，助力上市公司在自贸 港免税赛道上抢占先机，实现业务转型和价值提升，充分享受自贸港政策红利带来的发展机遇。 尽管受宏观经济环境、行业竞争加剧等因素影响，海南发展2024年度业绩出现阶段性下滑，公司短期经 营面临一定压力，但控股股东的增持行动犹如一颗 "定心丸"，向市场释放出强烈信号。控股方基于对 海南自贸港政策红利持续释放的深刻理解，对免税消费市场长期扩容的坚定判断，以及对上市公司业务 布局优化的充分信心，选择在此时增持，不仅是对市场短期波动的积极应对，更是从战略高度对公司长 期价值的坚定坚守。这种基于深入研究和战略眼光的决策，为投资者提供了重要的参考依据，让市场更 加清晰 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 高江虹 北京报道 四月的免税概念股走势有点妖。 4月初，美国政府向全球祭出关税大棒时，A股各大板块股票高台跳水，股价巨幅波动，但中国中免 （601888.SH）、王府井(600859.SH)、众信旅游(002707.SZ)、海汽集团(603069.SH)等免税概念股却逆势 接连大涨。 免税概念龙头股中国中免的股价在4月8日一下子飙升7.45%，4月9日涨停，4月10日又涨了4.99%，股价 竟然创出近几个月来的新高。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，中国中免的股价与市值过山车，实际上是在修正泡沫，向其内在价值回 归。 受益于离岛免税的年度限额提升和品类扩大政策，加之疫情期间出境游受阻，国内高端消费需求在海南 内部得到较大程度的消化，尤其是原本倾向于出境购物的消费者转向海南免税渠道，带动了2020年和 2021年海南旅游零售市场的良好表现。 作为海南离岛免税最大的运营商，中国中免业绩曾一度大幅增长。2021年该公司实现营收676.69亿元， 同比增长28.65%；实现归母净利润95.92亿元，同比增长56.23%。 不过，中国中免后续股价又突然连降几个交易日，投资者对关税战下免税运营商能否获益 ...