在投资这个行当里，人类往往高估了自己的预测能力。无论是华尔街顶级对冲基金经理，还是普通散户，大家都有一个共同的毛病：喜欢折腾，总觉得复杂 的东西更"聪明"、更"高端"。但问题在于，复杂真的能带来更好的回报吗？ 最近《华尔街日报》做了一个有意思的比较【1】，把经典的"60/40组合"（60%股票+40%债券）拉出来，与几个看上去更花哨的"替代方案"对比。结果 让人哭笑不得： 过去25年，60/40的年化回报是 6.89% ，而桥水基金引以为豪的"全天候组合"只拿到 6.49% 。换句话说，付出了更多费用，搞得更复 杂，最后还不如一个最简单的配置。 再看看其他方案。比如"永久组合"，把资产均分成四份（股票、债券、大宗商品、现金），长周期的年化回报只有 4.45% 。而那些强调"安全"的30/70组 合（30%股票+70%债券），25年的年化回报也才 5.55% 【1】。不管包装得多漂亮，结果摆在那儿：60/40反而成了赢家。 这让我想起一个比喻。复杂的投资组合，就像是一桌满汉全席，山珍海味齐上阵，光菜单就能写一大本。但真要论吃饱、管用，一碗热气腾腾的家常面往往 更实在。投资也是一样， 关键不是把菜式弄得多花哨，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the investment journey of a 90s female investor who transitioned from speculative trading in a bull market to a disciplined asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of systematic investment approaches for wealth growth [1][2]. Investment Journey - The investor began her financial journey in 2016 during a bear market, influenced by simplified investment strategies like "asset allocation" and "regular investment" [3]. - Her initial experiences included significant gains in the booming renewable energy sector, followed by a painful loss of 100,000 yuan, which prompted a shift towards a more structured investment approach [4][5]. Investment Philosophy - The investor's philosophy evolved to prioritize risk management and long-term stability over short-term gains, leading to the adoption of a diversified asset allocation strategy [5][6]. - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy, which balances four asset classes to mitigate risks across different economic cycles, became a cornerstone of her investment approach [5][6]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The current asset allocation consists of 45% equities, 25% bonds, 15% gold, and 15% cash, tailored to her risk tolerance and investment goals [6][7]. - Specific fund selections include a mix of domestic and international equities, bonds, and gold, with a focus on low-volatility and dividend-paying assets [8][10]. Performance Metrics - The investor's portfolio has shown a cumulative return of approximately 11% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of 3.94%, significantly lower than the benchmark index [11][12]. - The strategy emphasizes liquidity and risk control, allowing for stable growth while meeting daily financial needs [11]. Personal Insights - The investor highlights the psychological benefits of a stable investment strategy, which alleviates anxiety related to market fluctuations and enhances confidence in making significant life decisions [13]. - Key advice for new investors includes using only disposable income for investments, abandoning the notion of quick wealth, and focusing on improving personal skills and knowledge for long-term benefits [14].