Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that gold has significantly outperformed major stock indices this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, highlighting its status as a key asset in the current economic climate influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2]. Market Performance - The London gold price has risen to 3801.950, marking an increase of 43.170 or 1.15% [1]. - Major stock indices such as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have shown positive year-to-date performances of 8.70%, 16.43%, and 12.96% respectively [2]. Gold Investment Strategies - The article discusses two established asset allocation models: the Permanent Portfolio and the All-Weather Portfolio. - The Permanent Portfolio, proposed by Harry Browne, allocates 25% to stocks, 25% to long-term bonds, 25% to short-term bonds, and 25% to gold, aiming for stability across different economic conditions [3][4]. - The All-Weather Portfolio, created by Ray Dalio, suggests a more dynamic allocation of 30% to stocks, 40% to long-term bonds, 15% to intermediate bonds, 7.5% to gold, and 7.5% to other commodities, focusing on risk balance and efficiency [12][14]. Historical Performance - Both the Permanent and All-Weather Portfolios have achieved annualized returns of approximately 8%-9% from 1971 to 2024, with low volatility and high success rates, generating positive returns in 8 to 9 out of 10 years [15][16]. - The article notes that aside from 2022, when both portfolios experienced losses due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, they have generally performed well [18]. Recommendations for Gold Allocation - The article suggests varying gold allocation based on risk tolerance: - Aggressive investors may allocate 5%-10% to gold for extreme risk hedging. - Moderate investors might consider 10%-15%, aligning with Dalio's recent advice to increase gold allocation to 15%. - Conservative investors could allocate 20%-25% to gold, following the Permanent Portfolio model [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that simpler investment strategies, such as the classic "60/40 portfolio" (60% stocks and 40% bonds), often outperform more complex alternatives, highlighting the limitations of human predictive abilities in investing [2][4][5]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Over the past 25 years, the "60/40 portfolio" achieved an annualized return of 6.89%, while Bridgewater's "All Weather Portfolio" returned only 6.49% [2] - Other complex strategies, such as the "Permanent Portfolio" (equally divided among stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash), yielded a lower annualized return of 4.45% [2] - A "30/70 portfolio" (30% stocks and 70% bonds) also underperformed with a 5.55% annualized return over the same period [2] Group 2: Institutional Investor Insights - Research tracking public pension funds and university endowments from 2008 to 2023 revealed that public pensions had an average annualized return of 6.88%, while a market index portfolio could have achieved 7.84% [3] - University endowment funds also returned around 6.88%, while a market index portfolio would have yielded 9.27% during the same period [3] - The difference in returns, although seemingly small at 1-2 percentage points annually, accumulates significantly over decades, suggesting that complex asset allocations have hindered long-term performance [3] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes that the market's inherent complexity and uncertainty make it difficult for investors to predict outcomes accurately, leading to higher costs and lower returns when pursuing complex strategies [4] - The "60/40 portfolio" embodies a fundamental asset allocation philosophy, balancing risk and return effectively over time [4] - The article suggests that rather than seeking intricate strategies, investors should focus on controlling costs, diversifying, and adhering to key investment principles for long-term success [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the investment journey of a 90s female investor who transitioned from speculative trading in a bull market to a disciplined asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of systematic investment approaches for wealth growth [1][2]. Investment Journey - The investor began her financial journey in 2016 during a bear market, influenced by simplified investment strategies like "asset allocation" and "regular investment" [3]. - Her initial experiences included significant gains in the booming renewable energy sector, followed by a painful loss of 100,000 yuan, which prompted a shift towards a more structured investment approach [4][5]. Investment Philosophy - The investor's philosophy evolved to prioritize risk management and long-term stability over short-term gains, leading to the adoption of a diversified asset allocation strategy [5][6]. - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy, which balances four asset classes to mitigate risks across different economic cycles, became a cornerstone of her investment approach [5][6]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The current asset allocation consists of 45% equities, 25% bonds, 15% gold, and 15% cash, tailored to her risk tolerance and investment goals [6][7]. - Specific fund selections include a mix of domestic and international equities, bonds, and gold, with a focus on low-volatility and dividend-paying assets [8][10]. Performance Metrics - The investor's portfolio has shown a cumulative return of approximately 11% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of 3.94%, significantly lower than the benchmark index [11][12]. - The strategy emphasizes liquidity and risk control, allowing for stable growth while meeting daily financial needs [11]. Personal Insights - The investor highlights the psychological benefits of a stable investment strategy, which alleviates anxiety related to market fluctuations and enhances confidence in making significant life decisions [13]. - Key advice for new investors includes using only disposable income for investments, abandoning the notion of quick wealth, and focusing on improving personal skills and knowledge for long-term benefits [14].

Core Insights - The recent performance of a leading private equity firm's all-weather strategy products has sparked significant discussion in the private equity community, with many products showing annual returns fluctuating between -2% and +2% as of August 1 [1][2] - The overall performance of all-weather strategy products has been under pressure this year, with a median return of approximately 7%, significantly lagging behind the median return of the broader private equity market [3][4] - There is a notable disconnect in investor perception, with many equating all-weather strategy products to high-risk CTA strategies, leading to a lack of understanding of their intended stable return profile [5][6] Performance Analysis - The negative contribution from stock assets and significant losses from commodity assets have been identified as key reasons for the net value decline of the all-weather strategy products [2][4] - As of August 1, over 60% of the all-weather strategy products under the leading private equity firm reported returns of less than 5%, with some even incurring losses, contrasting sharply with the top-performing products that achieved a return of 26.17% [2][3] - The performance gap highlights the challenges faced by institutions that have simply transplanted international models without adapting to local market conditions [3][4] Investor Perception - There is a prevalent misunderstanding among investors who associate all-weather strategies with high volatility, which complicates the marketing of genuinely low-risk products [5][6] - The confusion is exacerbated by marketing efforts that emphasize low volatility, while actual product performance has not met these expectations, leading to skepticism among clients [6] Strategic Adjustments - Some institutions are exploring localized adaptations of traditional models to better fit the Chinese market, focusing on dynamic asset allocation and risk management [6][7] - Enhancements to classic models, such as the "permanent portfolio" strategy, are being implemented to improve performance by focusing on index enhancement and utilizing futures contracts for asset allocation [6][7] Future Directions - To build sustainable competitive advantages in the all-weather strategy product space, firms need to enhance macroeconomic analysis and dynamic asset allocation capabilities [7][8] - The ongoing transformation of asset management regulations is creating significant demand for low-volatility, multi-asset allocation strategies, indicating a growing interest among investors [7][8] - The development of customized low-risk all-weather strategy products in collaboration with banks and brokerages is expected to open new avenues for growth [8]

Core Insights - The performance of all-weather strategy products from a leading private equity firm has faced significant net value declines, sparking discussions within the private equity community [1] - The overall performance of all-weather strategy products has been under pressure this year, with a median return of approximately 7%, significantly lagging behind the median return of the entire private equity market [2] - The divergence in performance among all-weather strategy products highlights the challenges faced by institutions that have simply transplanted international models into the Chinese market [2] Performance Analysis - As of August 1, several all-weather strategy products from the mentioned private equity firm reported annual returns ranging from -2% to +2%, which is considerably lower than the mainstream all-weather strategy returns exceeding 20% in 2024 [1] - Over 60% of the all-weather strategy products monitored by a third-party platform have returns of less than 5%, with some even incurring losses [2] - The significant performance gap is attributed to the failure of the stock-bond rebalancing mechanism and the volatility of long-term government bond prices [2] Asset Class Impact - Gold has dramatically influenced the performance of certain products, with those heavily invested in gold outperforming others by as much as 20 percentage points due to its strong performance in the first quarter [3] - The reliance on single assets or excessive leverage has exposed risks, leading to substantial net value declines for some products [3] Investor Perception - There is a common misconception among investors that all-weather strategy products are synonymous with high-risk CTA strategies, which has led to a lack of attention on genuinely stable, low-risk all-weather strategies [3][4] - The confusion is particularly evident in sales, where significant effort is required to clarify the differences between low-risk all-weather strategies and high-risk commodity strategies [4] Strategic Adaptations - Some institutions are exploring localized adaptations of traditional models to better fit the Chinese market, focusing on dynamic asset weight adjustments based on local market characteristics [5] - Enhancements to classic models include quantitative modifications that align with the unique asset characteristics and policy environment of China [5] Future Directions - To build sustainable competitive advantages in the all-weather strategy product space, firms need to enhance macroeconomic analysis and dynamic asset allocation capabilities [5] - There is a growing interest among investors in low-volatility, high Sharpe ratio multi-asset allocation strategies, indicating a potential market opportunity for skilled all-weather strategy managers [6] - The development of customized low-risk all-weather strategy products in collaboration with banks and brokerages is expected to open new avenues for growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of the "Permanent Portfolio" investment strategy among young investors, particularly in the context of social media platforms like Xiaohongshu, emphasizing its simplicity and effectiveness in wealth management [2][5]. Group 1: Permanent Portfolio Concept - The "Permanent Portfolio" is a classic multi-asset allocation strategy created by Harry Browne in the 1970s, designed to provide stability and growth through diversified asset allocation [3][5]. - This strategy is not merely a simple four-part allocation but represents a flexible approach that can be tailored to individual preferences, allowing for personal variations in asset allocation [5][12]. Group 2: Market Trends and Historical Context - The resurgence of interest in multi-asset portfolios is linked to macroeconomic conditions reminiscent of the 1970s, particularly the significant rise in gold prices, which increased from $35 to $512, a cumulative increase of 1363% [13][15]. - The current economic environment, characterized by slowing growth and high interest rates, has led to a renewed focus on multi-asset strategies, paralleling the historical context of the 1970s [15][14]. Group 3: Investment Behavior of Young Investors - Young investors today prefer to create their own "safe havens" through personalized investment strategies, reflecting a desire for autonomy and reduced external influence in their financial decisions [17][18]. - The article highlights a cultural shift where younger generations are more inclined to engage in self-directed investment strategies, aligning with the principles of the Permanent Portfolio, which emphasizes diversification and minimal intervention [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the greatest dividend for ordinary people is not external opportunities but rather the development of an internal system, categorized into "chaotic systems" and "compound systems" [3][4]. Group 1: Chaotic System - A chaotic system is characterized by frequent decision-making changes and high uncertainty, leading to a lack of accumulation in any particular field [7][8]. - Individuals in a chaotic system often rely on external influences and emotions for decision-making, which can result in missed opportunities [5][9]. Group 2: Compound System - A compound system focuses on long-term goals and experience accumulation, leading to clearer decision-making paths and reduced external interference [10]. - The advantages of a compound system include strong certainty, reduced anxiety, and a stable mindset despite market fluctuations [11]. - The article discusses various investment strategies within a compound system, such as technical analysis, value investing, and a "permanent portfolio" approach that emphasizes asset diversification and dynamic balance [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Performance - The author's "permanent portfolio" consists of dividend funds in the A-share market, index funds in the US (Nasdaq and S&P 500), and investments in India and Southeast Asia [13]. - The performance of the author's fund account shows a year-to-date increase of 6.33%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has decreased by 1.7% [16]. - The article notes that the stock market has shown positive trends, particularly after the worst impacts of tariff storms have passed [17][19].

以下文章来源于范范爱养基 ，作者范范 范范爱养基 . 专注基金投资分享，说人话，不拽词！不保证说的都对，但都是当下我最最真实的想法。（雪球号同名） 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 范范爱养基 来源：雪球 "止损"的关键不在这个步骤本身，而在于其前置步骤 ——如果你在最初买入时就做好了充分的价值判断、仓位管理、风险评估，那么，几乎就不 会存在止损操作！ 3类不同标的，处理亏损方式不同 最近看到一个观点，我觉得还挺有道理。 止损是什么？ 止损不是一个投资行为，而是一个仓位管理行为，仅仅是对之前仓位管理没做好的修正和弥补罢。 换言之，如果你的投入比例是合理分散的，为什么需要止损？ 想想看也是~~ 如果你是All In了某个资产，那就非常需要设置止损点。俗话说"留得青山在"，万一你买的资产最后真"归零"了，那就完全失去了东山再起的机 会。 但如果你提前先做好了仓位管理，假设你有100W本金，其中20%在港股市场，甚至，其中某一只港股基金占比只有5%，也就是5万，那么即便这 只基金亏了50%，也不过是浮亏2.5W，占总仓位2.5%。 类似 AL ...