点击 最 下方 关注《材料汇》 ， 点击"在看"和" "并分享 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 （请添加小编微信，后续会组建 相关微信群 ） 正文 五矿证券 珍惜有限 创造无限 1. 2025年有色金属——关税影响、降息预期与战略金属价值重估 1.1 2025年主要有色金属价格,宏观与地缘政治扰动成为主因 ロ 2025年受到关税和美联储降息预期的波动，以及地缘环境下战略金属政策等影响，有色金属价格除铅、中重稀土基本出现普涨。 ロ 大类涨跌幅来看，贵金属涨幅居前（>100%），小金属涨幅（≈78%，分化明显），工业金属（≈30%）。 ロ 具体品种来看，2025年钨价涨幅领先达到343%，COMEX黄金白银分别上涨81%、178%；铜、锡上涨51%、67%，氧化错较涨 幅达到97%,氧化简跌幅较大。 图表1:2025年有色金属价格涨跌幅与预期差异 珍惜有限 创造无限 图表2：2025年有色金属行业利润（上）、板块表现（下） 3 年度涨幅 收入YOY % 归母净利润YOY% 有色金属板块涨跌幅 40.9 71.72 9.5 SW金属新材料 58.89 8.1 8.24 6.51 51.12 SW磁性材料 3 ...

2026年2月，一场在华盛顿上演的"资源大会战"掀起了全球地缘政治的新波澜。特朗普再出狠招，拉上 欧盟、日本、澳大利亚、加拿大等五十来个盟友，搞出一个"抗中稀土联盟"。口号喊得震天响：要让关 键矿产"脱离中国依赖"。 听起来像是全球供应链的大地震，实则是一场看起来吓人、实操却扑街的"西式合唱"。可中国稀土产业 真就稳如老狗吗？还是得提防棋盘下的新暗招。 别看特朗普这次架势弄得挺大，把副总统万斯和能源部长全请上了台，甚至搞出个"关键矿产部长级峰 会"，一次把54个国家或地区拉进组局。这位再次上台的老当家，试图复制当年围堵中国半导体、压制 电动汽车的"老套路"，这次瞄准的目标是，中国稀土。 现场喊话的副总统万斯是这么说的：关键矿产市场正在"失灵"，必须设价格下限，重塑市场逻辑。从理 论到声音都很"反市场"，但很特朗普。 只不过，这种"政治挂帅"的联盟，一落地就散了味儿。韩国转身就说"仍重视和中国合作"，欧盟嘴上配 合行动却慢半拍，澳大利亚虽然储量大，但加工技术差得远，看似热情，实际上是等谁给补贴。连加拿 大也主打的是"观望"，在资源行业里当个"队尾跟车"的角色。 能组起来的是峰会，凑不齐的是行动。国家都有自己的小 ...

TANKAN AND Fra F EST G SIL PM a ® 2026年以来，全球大宗商品市场经历了一场剧烈的定价重估。2月初，国际油价显著承压，布伦特原油期货价格一度回落至66美元/桶下方，WTI原油期货价 格一度跌破62美元/桶。油价大跌的直接诱因在于贵金属板块暴跌引发的跨资产流动性恐慌，避险情绪的快速退潮导致资金从大宗商品板块无差别撤离。凯 文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席后，美元指数强势反弹，进一步压制以美元计价的原油估值。在油价大幅波动时，地缘风险溢价经历快速修正，随着特 朗普政府释放出与伊朗重启谈判的信号，市场对中东供应中断的极端担忧暂时缓解。不过，这并不意味着地缘风险的消退，相反，随着美印贸易协定迫使印 度削减俄油进口并转向美国与委内瑞拉资源，全球能源贸易版图正在经历重构。这种由宏观流动性收紧与地缘叙事切换共同主导的短期剧烈波动，正是深入 剖析当前油价运行逻辑的最佳切入点。 图为伊朗原油出口量（单位：万桶/日） 从"石油美元"到"资源博弈"的新范式 从特朗普的关税政策，到委内瑞拉和伊朗等一系列地缘演变，我们不难发现，2025年以来全球原油市场的定价锚点正经历从单一"石油美元"流动性向广 义 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing unprecedented volatility, with prices reaching historic highs and a significant annual increase, driven by a structural supply deficit and the dynamics between major global economies [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver demand has exceeded supply for five consecutive years, with expectations of continued deficits through 2026, primarily driven by industrial needs in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors [3]. - China's refining capacity accounts for 60%-70% of global output, indicating a near-monopoly on the conversion of ore into usable silver, which significantly influences market dynamics [3][5]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Risks - The current market is characterized by extreme bullish sentiment, with any bearish attempts potentially leading to rapid liquidations, highlighting the precarious nature of the situation [3]. - Historical precedents warn that when market enthusiasm peaks, risks also approach their zenith, suggesting that retail investors may be vulnerable to significant losses [6][8]. Group 3: Capital and Geopolitical Influences - Recent export control measures from key regions are viewed as critical variables affecting silver price trends, reflecting the intense resource competition between major economies [5]. - The extreme market conditions are largely a manifestation of the ongoing resource competition between two major economic powers, emphasizing the complexity of the current landscape [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Caution - The volatility in silver prices may serve as a tool for debt management or strategic competition rather than a straightforward path to wealth for ordinary investors [6]. - Maintaining a cautious approach and avoiding leveraged positions is advised, as the market's irrational exuberance can lead to significant financial repercussions for uninformed participants [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tightening of silver export controls by China has transformed silver from a secondary precious metal into a critical strategic resource, impacting global supply chains and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Export Control Changes - Starting January 1, 2026, silver exports from China will transition from a quota system to a licensing management model, requiring detailed reporting of buyer identities and end-use of goods [3]. - Only 44 companies have been granted export qualifications, effectively excluding smaller enterprises with annual production below 80 tons from the export market [3][21]. Group 2: Silver's Strategic Importance - Silver has become essential in high-tech industries, with the photovoltaic sector consuming 55% of global silver production, highlighting its critical role in solar energy conversion [7][9]. - The metal is also vital for electric vehicle control modules, 5G base station components, and AI server parts, making it irreplaceable in several strategic industries [9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years, with a supply gap of 3,660 tons in 2025, expected to widen in 2026 [15]. - Current silver inventories in London are at a decade-low of 233 tons, indicating a critical shortage in available supply [15]. Group 4: China's Dominance in Refining - Although China only produces 13% of the world's silver, it dominates the refining sector, processing 60% to 70% of global silver into high-purity products necessary for industrial use [11][13]. - China's ability to refine silver from by-products of copper and lead-zinc mining gives it a significant advantage in controlling the global silver supply chain [13]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the new export policy, silver prices experienced extreme volatility, with futures prices nearing historical highs before a sharp decline, reflecting market anxiety over supply shortages [19]. - The new regulations have led to a significant reshaping of the silver export landscape, with 90% of small traders being excluded, resulting in a more regulated market environment [21]. Group 6: Implications for Global Trade - Europe, heavily reliant on Chinese silver for photovoltaic applications, faces increased procurement costs or the need to develop alternative technologies, which may take years to implement [23]. - In contrast, China's domestic market is prioritizing supply for high-tech industries, with policies in place to ensure the availability of silver for critical sectors [25]. Group 7: Long-term Strategic Shifts - The tightening of silver export controls is part of a broader strategy by China to assert its influence in global resource markets, moving from a passive participant to an active rule-maker [31][33]. - The ongoing demand for silver in emerging technologies positions it as a key asset in the global resource competition, with implications for future market dynamics and pricing strategies [29][33].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price surge this year, outperforming gold and marking a rare strong market trend driven by financial, industrial, and geopolitical factors [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of silver has increased significantly, creating a structural market trend rather than mere speculation [2]. - The first driving force for silver comes from the monetary system, as global assets seek a new "anchor" amid diminishing dollar credit [4]. - Silver's price is more elastic due to its lower cost compared to gold, often leading it to outperform gold in bull markets [6]. Group 2: Industrial Demand - Unlike gold, silver is extensively consumed in modern industries, making it a critical material [8]. - In the photovoltaic sector, silver is irreplaceable, with its demand rising as global energy structures shift and solar installations increase [9]. - The use of silver in electric vehicles is also growing due to the complexity of their electrical systems, which rely on high-conductivity metals [11]. - Artificial intelligence data centers require silver for efficient operation, as they consist of numerous servers and components [12]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Industrial demand for silver has surpassed half of its total consumption and continues to rise, creating a dual role as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial raw material [14]. - The supply of silver is relatively rigid, with over 80% sourced as a byproduct from copper, lead, and zinc mining, making it difficult to increase production quickly [16]. - Global silver mining output has been declining since reaching a peak in 2016, while demand has consistently increased, leading to a persistent supply gap [19]. Group 4: China's Role - China is a major consumer of silver in industries like renewable energy and AI, yet it has limited domestic silver resources and relies heavily on imports [22]. - Despite being a key player in silver processing and trade, China faces a contradiction between domestic industrial needs and global market demands, leading to tighter export controls [24]. Group 5: Strategic Resource Implications - The current silver market trend signals a deeper shift in global industrial competition, focusing on materials, minerals, and supply chains rather than just technology [26]. - As more raw materials are redefined as strategic resources, market pricing logic will change, necessitating updated investment strategies [28].

Core Insights - Russia's rare earth resources are estimated at 3.8 million tons, significantly surpassing Ukraine's reserves, with major deposits located in the Tomtor and Zashikhinskoye areas [1] - The Russian government plans to increase its rare earth production from 1.3% to 12% of global output by 2030, backed by a $15 billion investment for new processing facilities [1] - The U.S. is highly interested in Russian rare earth resources to reduce dependence on single sources, with discussions on potential cooperation and technology transfer [3][4] Group 1: Russian Rare Earth Resources - Russia's rare earth reserves include 17 elements such as neodymium, dysprosium, yttrium, and europium, with 380,000 tons immediately available for extraction [1][4] - The Russian Direct Investment Fund is negotiating with U.S. companies on rare earth projects, including a joint exploration agreement for the Tomtor area with a total investment of $5 billion [4] - The U.S. Geological Survey is invited to assess the purity of yttrium and europium in Russian deposits, which can reach 99.9%, making them suitable for military applications [1][3] Group 2: U.S.-Russia Cooperation - The U.S. is considering a dedicated railway from Siberia to the Black Sea to facilitate the transport of rare earth materials, estimated to cost $3 billion [3] - Initial dialogues between Russia and the U.S. have shifted from conceptual discussions to specific project lists, including the construction of a separation line at the Lovozersk mine [6][11] - The U.S. is expected to provide $500 million in exploration equipment in exchange for equity in Russian mining projects [9][14] Group 3: Global Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China remains the dominant player in the global rare earth market, controlling 95% of refining capacity and holding 120 million tons of reserves [13][14] - The U.S. rare earth production accounts for only 5% of global output, with significant reliance on imports, particularly from China [9][14] - China's recent initiatives include a $4.5 billion fund for rare earth research and development to enhance separation purity, ensuring a technological edge in international markets [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions taken by the U.S. under Trump's administration to secure rare earth resources, particularly focusing on agreements with Australia and Kazakhstan, while questioning the effectiveness and feasibility of these moves in reducing dependence on China [2][12]. Group 1: U.S.-Australia Rare Earth Agreement - The U.S. signed a deal with Australia to purchase rare earth minerals, claiming it aims to reduce reliance on China and create a "clean supply chain" [4][12]. - The agreement involves raw ore rather than refined products, highlighting that Australia lacks the capacity for significant processing, which still relies on China [4][6]. - The U.S. faces challenges in establishing a complete supply chain for rare earths, as the necessary technology and processing capabilities are not currently in place [6][10]. Group 2: U.S. Focus on Kazakhstan's Tungsten - The U.S. is pursuing tungsten resources in Kazakhstan, a critical metal for high-end manufacturing and military applications, with government loans to support domestic companies [8][12]. - Despite the direct approach, the U.S. still lacks the processing technology required to convert mined tungsten into usable materials, which remains a significant hurdle [8][10]. - The U.S. mining efforts may ultimately lead to dependence on China for processing, similar to the situation with rare earths [10][12]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategy - China maintains a strong position in the rare earth and tungsten markets, with a complete industrial chain and advanced processing capabilities developed over decades [10][14]. - The Chinese strategy focuses on enhancing regulatory and environmental standards while moving towards selling technology and products rather than just raw materials [14][16]. - China's international cooperation approach emphasizes mutual growth and infrastructure development, contrasting with the U.S. strategy of resource acquisition [16][18]. Group 4: Implications for Global Resource Competition - The article suggests that the real competition lies in the ability to convert resources into products and industries, rather than merely acquiring raw materials [18]. - The urgency in U.S. actions reflects a recognition of its vulnerabilities in the global resource landscape, particularly in high-end manufacturing [12][18]. - Continuous innovation and institutional support are essential for maintaining competitive advantages in the face of increasing international competition [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-Australia rare earth supply agreement, valued at billions, is seen as a strategic move by the Trump administration to reduce dependence on China, but faces significant challenges in execution and feasibility [1][5][15]. Group 1: Rare Earth Supply Agreement - The US and Australia have reached a rare earth supply agreement, with each country committing $1 billion over six months to enhance rare earth mining and processing [5][15]. - Australia ranks fourth globally in rare earth reserves, with Lynas Corporation being one of the few Western companies capable of producing heavy rare earths [6]. - However, the processing of rare earths requires transportation to Malaysia, where local opposition due to pollution has historically caused operational disruptions [8][10]. Group 2: Challenges in Supply Chain - The extraction of rare earths is not sufficient; the real challenge lies in the separation and purification process, which is complex and requires advanced technology [10][11]. - Over 80% of global separation and purification capacity is located in China, which has developed a comprehensive industrial system over decades [11][28]. - The US's only domestic rare earth mine, Mountain Pass, still relies on China for processing, highlighting the difficulty in establishing an independent supply chain [28][30]. Group 3: Strategic Moves in Tungsten Mining - Following the rare earth agreement, the Trump administration is considering unconventional methods, such as government loans, to help US companies bid for the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan [3][21]. - The Bakuta mine is significant as it is projected to be the largest open-pit tungsten mine globally, with a planned processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore annually by 2025 [20][18]. - The US strategy involves applying pressure through tariffs while offering financial incentives to sway Kazakhstan's allegiance away from China [23][26]. Group 4: Limitations of US Strategy - Even if the US secures the Bakuta mine, it does not resolve the underlying dependency on China for processing tungsten, as China leads in the technology and cost efficiency required for refining [31][33]. - The Trump administration's approach of using financial incentives and pressure may backfire, as it risks alienating allies and does not address the core issue of industrial chain strength [33][35]. - The complexity of establishing a self-sufficient supply chain for rare earths and tungsten means that the US's ambitions may be overly optimistic, with significant time and investment required to achieve independence from China [15][37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent export control regulations by China on rare earth elements have significant implications for the global semiconductor industry, highlighting the strategic importance of these materials in manufacturing and supply chains [2][5][6]. Group 1: Export Control Regulations - On October 9, China announced new export control regulations targeting key rare earth elements and advanced semiconductor production [2]. - The regulations have raised concerns about potential disruptions in the global supply chain, particularly for companies like TSMC and Samsung [5]. - China's clarification on October 12 indicated that the regulations aim to protect national security and fulfill international obligations, not to ban exports [5]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earth elements are embedded in critical technologies, making them indispensable for various high-performance devices, from electric vehicles to smartphones [6][9]. - The use of rare earths is minimal in quantity but crucial for the performance parameters of high-end equipment, likening their role to that of vitamins in a system [9]. Group 3: China's Market Position - China has nearly monopolized the rare earth market, reducing the number of companies from nearly 200 to six major state-owned enterprises between 2005 and 2015 [11]. - The country controls production quotas and can leverage rare earths as a negotiating tool in international relations, as demonstrated during the 2010 Japan-China diplomatic conflict [12][17]. Group 4: Refining and Processing Challenges - While many countries possess rare earth deposits, the complex refining and separation processes present significant barriers, which China has mastered over decades [15][17]. - The Mountain Pass mine in California, despite its historical significance, still relies on China for processing, illustrating the lack of a complete supply chain in the U.S. [17][19]. Group 5: Global Manufacturing Dynamics - The control over rare earths allows China to influence global manufacturing locations, prompting companies to relocate production closer to these resources [20]. - China's strategy has evolved from merely exporting raw materials to capturing the entire supply chain, including high-value downstream products [22]. Group 6: Strategic Resource Management - China's experience in managing rare earth resources offers lessons for other critical materials like cobalt, lithium, and nickel, emphasizing centralized governance and vertical integration [23]. - The ongoing competition for rare earths reflects broader geopolitical dynamics, contrasting market-driven approaches in the West with China's state-led resource strategy [25].