在历经大幅加息应对通胀的紧缩周期后，2025年见证了全球主要经济体宽松周期的演进发展。虽然多数 国家央行采取宽松政策，但各国货币政策的节奏、力度和前景分化进一步加剧。 总体呈现宽松趋势 通胀和增长两大因素仍然是影响全球主要央行决策的核心动力。 与之相类似，澳大利亚央行降息75个基点后，下半年通胀出现回升迹象，对外释放宽松周期可能临近结 束的信号。目前市场对于澳洲央行降息预期不断走低。加拿大央行也在2025年12月表示，目前的政策利 率大体处于合适水平，释放未来中止降息的信号。 与上述两方相反，日本央行属于紧缩阵营。随着日本薪资增长和通胀稳步处于2%以上目标水平，日本 央行在2025年年初、年底两次加息。其"逆行"政策安排事实上正式终结了此前10余年的日元"廉价货 币"时代。 2025年，全球主要经济体延续和实施宽松货币政策，主要得益于通胀压力下降。相较于2022年主要发达 经济体通胀10%的历史高位，2025年全球通胀显著弱化。虽然部分经济体通胀黏性仍存，但是主要经济 体核心通胀已经逐步回落到2%至4%区间。以欧洲央行为例，欧洲央行在2025年上半年密集开展4次降 息活动；与之相伴随的是通胀数据的持续走低，欧 ...

全球央行货币政策的差异化格局进一步压制美元走势。与美联储的宽松路径不同，日本央行正稳步推进 加息进程，行长植田和男明确表示，若物价与经济走势符合预期将进一步加息，11月日本家庭支出环比 激增6.2%的强劲数据，更给鹰派立场提供了支撑。尽管短期美日利差仍对美元兑日元有一定支撑，但 机构普遍预测，随着日本央行持续加息，利差将逐步收窄，美元兑日元中期看跌趋势明确。此外，欧洲 央行大概率维持当前利率不变，澳洲联储甚至可能开启加息，均使得美元的利率优势持续削弱。 1月9日，全球汇市目光聚焦美元，当晚美国非农就业报告将成为短期美元走势的"试金石"，而结合美联 储政策动向、全球央行货币政策分化及地缘局势等多重因素，2026年美元中长期走势已显现清晰的弱市 主线。 短期来看，美元走势高度依赖非农数据表现。当前市场对美联储2026年3月降息的预期出现微妙变化， 芝商所FedWatch工具显示，3月降息概率已从1月8日的41.6%回落至约40%，核心支撑源于美国经济的韧 性表现——美国供应管理协会(ISM)服务业PMI从11月的52.6升至12月的54.4，印证经济活力仍存。经济 学家预测，12月美国非农就业人数将增加6万，失业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in global central bank monetary policies is leading to significant capital flows towards emerging markets, which are seen as having favorable investment opportunities due to lower inflation pressures and resilient economic growth prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is cautiously proceeding with interest rate cuts, while the European Central Bank has paused its actions, and the Bank of Japan is signaling potential rate hikes [2][3]. - Emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico and Poland recently lowering their rates to the lowest levels since 2022 [2][4]. - The divergence in monetary policies reflects a broader trend of easing to support economic growth amid weakening inflation expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are benefiting from a larger space for rate cuts, which supports potential returns on local currency bonds and equities [4][5]. - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4][6]. - The overall decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The current interest rate differentials are influencing global capital flows, with emerging markets generally offering higher interest rates than developed economies [5][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential [6][7]. - Market sentiment is optimistic about the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in bonds and equities, despite warnings of potential corrections in global stock markets [7][8].

Global Central Bank Policy Divergence - Major developed economies are experiencing varied interest rate policies, with the Federal Reserve cautiously lowering rates, the European Central Bank pausing actions, and the Bank of Japan signaling potential rate hikes [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's future rate cuts remain uncertain due to a lack of key economic data amid a prolonged government shutdown [1][2] - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, with expectations to keep rates unchanged in December [1][2] Emerging Market Rate Cuts - Several emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico's central bank lowering rates by 25 basis points to 7.25%, the lowest since May 2022 [2] - Poland's central bank also announced its fifth rate cut of the year, while other countries like the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia followed suit with similar reductions [2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with further cuts anticipated by the end of 2026 [2] Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are seen as benefiting from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with greater room for monetary easing and resilient economic growth prospects [4][6] - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4] - The decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing investment opportunities in local currency bonds and equities [4][6] Capital Flows and Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in monetary policy reflects changes in interest rate differentials, influencing global capital flows towards emerging markets [5][6] - Emerging markets generally maintain higher interest rates than developed economies, providing significant potential for economic growth through rate cuts [6] - The weakening dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential for returns [6] Future Outlook for Emerging Markets - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in the bond sector, supported by improving fundamentals and attractive yields [7] - Despite warnings of potential market corrections, structural opportunities in markets like China, Japan, and India are highlighted as key areas for investment [7] - The recent performance of emerging market stocks has been strong, driven by a search for value and safe havens amid global risk asset sell-offs [7]