Core Viewpoint - Emerging market bonds and stocks recorded double-digit percentage increases in 2025, with a general positive outlook for 2026 among investors [3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Markets - Emerging market local currency bonds rose by 18% and stocks increased by 26% in 2025, marking the first time since 2017 that emerging market stocks outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. - The yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to its lowest level in 11 years [5]. - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index achieved a return of 16.71% in 2025, the best since 2009 [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by Bank of America involving 300 investors showed a lack of pessimism towards emerging markets, with a significant shift in sentiment [6]. - HSBC's December survey indicated that bearish views on emerging market prospects have completely disappeared, reaching a historical high in net bullish sentiment [6]. - U.S. ETFs focused on emerging market stocks attracted nearly $31 billion in 2025, while emerging market bond funds absorbed over $60 billion [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for emerging market assets in 2026, with expectations for high yields and diversification benefits from emerging market bonds [8]. - Focus areas for investment include Central and Eastern Europe, parts of Latin America (like Colombia and Brazil), and Asia (including India, the Philippines, and South Korea) [8]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to see investments in technology sectors and industries with clear advantages, such as the electric vehicle supply chain and renewable energy [8]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global economic growth for developed markets is projected to be around 1% to 1.5%, while emerging markets are expected to show relatively strong growth [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to remain under pressure due to policy divergence and trade tensions, although a short-term rebound is possible [10]. - The investment focus is expected to shift towards global diversification, with emerging markets showing improved fundamentals [10]. Group 5: Currency and Arbitrage Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial for the sustained strong performance of emerging market currencies [11]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential for continued low volatility in emerging market currencies, which could impact overall returns [13]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict significant inflows into emerging market bonds due to a weak dollar and the AI investment boom [11].

（来源：通证经济） 贝莱德CEO：主权基金正在低价买入比特币 贝莱德 CEO Larry Fink 透露，一些未具名的主权基金正在买入比特币，且在比特币价格从 12.6 万美元 的峰值下跌时，他们买入了更多。Larry Fink 表示，这些基金正在渐进式买入，并在比特币价格跌至 8 万美元区间时增持，旨在建立长期头寸。 他在 DealBook 活动上与 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 一起发言时表示，如果美国不加速在数字化和代币化方面的投入，将面临落后于其他国家的 风险。此外，Larry Fink 预测，加密货币驱动的代币化将在未来几年迎来巨大增长。（福布斯） 国际货币基金组织警告：稳定币普及或削弱央行控制权 贝莱德CEO：主权基金正在低价买入比特币 贝莱德 CEO Larry Fink 透露，一些未具名的主权基金正在买入比特币，且在比特币价格从 12.6 万美元 的峰值下跌时，他们买入了更多。Larry Fink 表示，这些基金正在渐进式买入，并在比特币价格跌至 8 万美元区间时增持，旨在建立长期头寸。 他在 DealBook 活动上与 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian ...

来源：环球市场播报 欲览更多环球财经资讯，请移步7×24小时实时财经新闻 市场 12月5日收盘：美股周四基本持平，市场静候美联储政策会议 12月5日美股成交额前20：特斯拉跻身美国汽车品牌前10 12月5日热门中概股涨跌不一 蔚来涨4.39%，BOSS直聘跌2.59% 原油价格小幅收高，市场关注乌克兰对俄罗斯石油资产的袭击 现货黄金涨0.16%，报4209.74美元/盎司 欧股上涨 受美联储降息预期提振 宏观 特朗普收紧移民工作许可，扩大对合法移民的打击力度 美国未偿国债首破30万亿美元 自2018年来已翻倍 白宫将于本月向规划委员会提交宴会厅方案 美国地质调查局误报"内华达州5.9级地震" 普京：俄罗斯与印度的能源合作不受政治形势波动的影响 公司 特朗普称美国将与刚果和卢旺达签署关键矿产协议 美国FHFA局长因涉嫌滥用职权面临联邦监管机构的调查 美国劳工统计局公布三季度生产率和四季度雇佣成本指数发布时间 力拓计划通过资产出售筹集100亿美元 苹果宣布高管人事调整 高盛暂停为芝商所宕机事故相关的数据中心公司发售债券 美国银行扩大财富管理客户的加密货币访问权限 派拉蒙天舞掷下50亿美元炸弹，欲在华纳兄弟竞购战中 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日 星期一 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、摩根大通亚洲主管、全球新兴市场股票策略联席主管 Rajiv Batra 领导的团队 | | | | | 将中国股票评级上调为"超配"，并表示相比潜在的下行风险，明年出现大幅上涨 | | | | | 的可能性更高。近期中国资产出现的调整，为入场提供了有吸引力的时点。 | | | | | 2、受美元走弱和 AI 投资热潮推动，摩根士丹利预计 2026 年新兴市场资产的回报 | | | | | 率达 8%，美银则看好明年新兴市场的本币债券超 10%收益。美国 AI 资本支出 2028 | | | | | 年将达 6280 亿美元，该影响通过科技出口和金属价 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates contrasts sharply with China's accommodative monetary policy, leading to significant market reactions [1][3] - In October 2025, Powell indicated a tightening of expectations for a rate cut in December due to persistent inflation pressures and a stable labor market, causing emerging market assets to decline and the dollar index to rise [1][19] - The Federal Reserve's actions throughout 2025, including maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% early in the year, reflect a cautious approach to inflation data [5][21] Group 2 - China's central bank continues to implement loose monetary policies, utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and repurchase operations to stabilize economic growth [3][19] - In 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by $25.7 billion, bringing its total holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest since 2008 [5][7] - The overall foreign holdings of U.S. debt reached a record high of $8.9 trillion, driven by other countries compensating for reduced Chinese investments [5][12] Group 3 - Foreign capital flows into emerging markets, particularly Chinese A-shares, have increased significantly, with net inflows exceeding 120 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [8][10] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have shifted their outlooks, citing undervaluation of Chinese assets and supportive policies as reasons for increased investment [10][19] - The influx of foreign capital into A-shares is primarily focused on technology and consumer sectors, with notable investments in companies like CATL and BYD [10][17] Group 4 - The dynamics of U.S. Treasury selling by Japan, the UK, and China in early 2025 were influenced by rising U.S. fiscal deficits and debt ceiling issues, with a combined sell-off of $81 billion [12][21] - Powell's hawkish comments have led to increased volatility in the U.S. bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 4% to over 4.5%, impacting emerging market currencies [13][19] - China's strategy includes increasing gold reserves and reducing reliance on the dollar, with gold production reaching 271.78 tons in the first nine months of 2025 [15][23]

Group 1 - The core market products were actively traded last week, with A500ETF (159361) and other ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index having a total trading volume exceeding 130 billion yuan [1][6] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rise in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) index increasing by over 8% last week [2][4] - The technology sector experienced a pullback, but ETFs focused on technology themes attracted significant capital inflows, with the STAR 50 ETF (588080) seeing a net inflow of 2.3 billion yuan [8][11] Group 2 - The overall market showed signs of structural recovery, supported by economic resilience and favorable policies, indicating that A-shares may continue a steady upward trend [3][11] - The trading volume of ETFs tracking the ChiNext, STAR Market, and CSI 300 indices was notably high, with the STAR 50 ETF (588080) and ChiNext ETF (159915) among the top performers [6][7] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) announced its fourth dividend distribution this year, reflecting a consistent dividend policy [10] Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical and gold sectors led the market gains, with several ETFs in these categories showing significant weekly increases [4][5] - The net inflow of capital into technology and high-dividend sectors was substantial, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) and Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) receiving considerable attention [8][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with a focus on high-quality development and long-term growth policies, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for medium to long-term investments [11]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in global central bank monetary policies is leading to significant capital flows towards emerging markets, which are seen as having favorable investment opportunities due to lower inflation pressures and resilient economic growth prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is cautiously proceeding with interest rate cuts, while the European Central Bank has paused its actions, and the Bank of Japan is signaling potential rate hikes [2][3]. - Emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico and Poland recently lowering their rates to the lowest levels since 2022 [2][4]. - The divergence in monetary policies reflects a broader trend of easing to support economic growth amid weakening inflation expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are benefiting from a larger space for rate cuts, which supports potential returns on local currency bonds and equities [4][5]. - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4][6]. - The overall decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The current interest rate differentials are influencing global capital flows, with emerging markets generally offering higher interest rates than developed economies [5][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential [6][7]. - Market sentiment is optimistic about the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in bonds and equities, despite warnings of potential corrections in global stock markets [7][8].

Group 1 - South African stock market is experiencing its longest monthly winning streak since early 2013, driven by optimism in the domestic economy, expectations of global monetary policy easing, and renewed interest in emerging market assets [1] - The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index rose by 1.5% in October, aiming for its eighth consecutive month of gains [1] - Banking, technology, and telecommunications stocks are leading the rally, gradually catching up with previously soaring precious metals stocks, benefiting from reasonable valuations and improved market sentiment towards the country [1] Group 2 - Analyst Davis from Unum Capital noted that macroeconomic optimism and the rotation of funds into emerging markets are driving the upward trend [1] - Local-oriented stocks are beginning to recover, potentially due to their more attractive valuations compared to global peers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and continue to do so approximately three more times next year, despite recent hawkish comments from Powell [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls have shown weak performance over the last four months, with potential marginal improvement expected after the government reopens, but strong growth is unlikely [1] - Inflation is likely to remain moderate [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The impact of Powell's hawkish remarks is expected to be temporary, with a return to a rate-cutting cycle anticipated [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to continue in a downward trend, and the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken [1] - Gold prices are expected to recover after a pullback, benefiting from the advancing rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for both emerging market equities and bonds [1] Group 3: Alternative Scenarios - In a low-probability scenario where the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in December and struggles to implement cuts by 2026, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may remain elevated, putting pressure on gold prices and U.S. equities, as well as increasing stress on emerging market assets [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the target range for the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4% during the October meeting, aligning with market expectations, but the decision was not unanimous [1] - The bank anticipates a rate cut in December due to the slowing U.S. economy and rising unemployment, but believes that market expectations for consecutive rate cuts may be overly extreme [1] - The bank projects that the policy interest rate may reach 3% to 3.25% by the end of 2026, emphasizing that the timing of rate cuts is less important than the overall trend [1] Group 2 - The decline in the U.S. dollar, coupled with better economic performance outside the U.S., may support emerging market equities and bonds, which remain more attractive compared to U.S. assets [2] - The bank maintains a positive outlook on gold due to ongoing central bank and retail buying, but anticipates limited price increases for gold next year due to reduced geopolitical risks and stable inflation outlook [2]