Group 1 - The global capital flow pattern is changing, with emerging markets experiencing significant impacts [1] - Emerging market assets have seen a notable increase this year, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising approximately 25% and the MSCI China Index increasing over 30% [3] - There has been a substantial acceleration in capital inflows, with over $22.9 billion flowing into emerging market ETFs listed in the US this year [3] Group 2 - In August, emerging market stocks and bonds attracted nearly $45 billion in foreign investment, the highest level in nearly a year, with China accounting for $39 billion of this total [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange ranked first globally in financing scale during the first half of the year, indicating a significant recovery in interest towards Chinese assets [7] - Brazil has emerged as a key destination for international capital, with foreign net purchases of assets on the São Paulo Stock Exchange reaching approximately 26.9 billion reais (about 35.9 billion yuan), the highest since 2022 [9]

Market Overview - On September 25, A-shares experienced a volatile upward trend, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% at one point, reaching a three-year high [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.30 points, down 0.01%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.90 points, up 0.67%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 3235.76 points, up 1.58% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 239.18 billion yuan, an increase of 44.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] International Indices - The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.27% at 45754.93 points, while the Korean Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3471.11 points on the same day [2] - Domestic commodity futures saw most main contracts rise, particularly in copper [2] Bond Market - On September 25, the performance of government bond futures was mixed, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) closing at 114.110 yuan, up 0.120 yuan (0.11% increase) [2] - The 10-year bond futures (T2512) closed at 107.610 yuan, down 0.010 yuan (0.01% decrease) [2] - The 5-year bond futures (TF2512) closed at 105.525 yuan, down 0.015 yuan (0.01% decrease) [2] - The 2-year bond futures (TS2512) closed at 102.314 yuan, down 0.010 yuan (0.01% decrease) [2] ETF Performance - On September 25, various ETFs showed mixed results, with the Cloud 50 ETF (560660) rising 4.02%, and the Big Data Industry ETF (516700) increasing by 3.60% [3] - Conversely, the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513690) fell by 1.77%, and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) decreased by 1.64% [3] Institutional Insights - Guohai Securities' strategy team released a report indicating that A-shares are expected to advance further in Q4 2025, driven by policy and liquidity, with a more balanced style [4] - Barclays' research team noted that the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, global economic slowdown, and reduced market volatility create favorable conditions for emerging market assets [4] - UBS Wealth Management's CIO office suggested that gold prices may have further upside potential due to expected declines in U.S. real interest rates amid continued high inflation [4] - Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist at Yuekai Securities, stated that the current A-share rally is based on a more solid foundation, with sustainability likely to exceed most historical trends [4]

【9月18日，摩根大通资管策略师称美降息或支撑新兴市场资产】摩根大通资产管理公司策略师Kerry Craig 表示，美国降息可能支撑新兴市场资产。美联储25个基点的降息幅度，符合市场普遍预期。该策略师认 为，利率下调或使美元走弱，有望提振新兴市场资产中的股票及本币债务表现。他还补充道，美国衰退风 险降低，意味着信贷市场将继续获良好支撑。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和训猎报 09.18 12:51:15 周 摩根大通:美降息25基点或支撑新兴 市场资产 【9月18日,摩根大通资管策略师称美降息或支撑新 兴市场资产】 摩根大通资产管理公司策略师Kerry Craig表示,美国降息可能支撑新兴市场资产。美联 储25个基点的降息幅度,符合市场普遍预期。 该策 略师认为,利率下调或使美元走弱,有望提振新兴 市场资产中的股票及本币债务表现。 他还补充道, 美国衰退风险降低,意味着信贷市场将继续获良好 支撑。 ...

Group 1: Investment Trends in Chinese Stocks - Global investors significantly invested in Chinese ETFs, contributing to net inflows in emerging markets, with a total of $2.749 billion in the week ending August 22, down from $8.978 billion the previous week, bringing the year-to-date total to $16.5 billion [1] - The inflow of funds into China was the highest, amounting to $2.233 billion, led by the iShares MSCI China fund, as the CSI 300 index recorded its largest weekly gain since November of the previous year [1][2] - Demand for A-shares has improved since April, with funds incorporating technology and consumer stocks into their portfolios during a four-month rebound [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Signs of improvement in the real estate market have boosted market sentiment, with Shanghai easing home purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy unlimited properties outside the outer ring [2] - Speculation about further measures to support the housing market has led to a rise in developer stock prices [2] - The easing of trade tensions with the U.S. has also positively influenced investor sentiment towards the Chinese stock market, with expectations of a weaker dollar and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve benefiting emerging market assets [2] Group 3: Fund Flows and Asset Management - Equity ETFs attracted an additional $1.74 billion, while bond funds saw an increase of $1.009 billion, raising total assets from $417.7 billion to $420.3 billion [2] - The largest inflows were directed towards mainland China and Hong Kong, totaling $2.233 billion, while India experienced the most significant outflow at $87.7 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are optimistic that emerging market assets will outperform developed market assets over the next year, driven by favorable monetary policies and conservative fiscal measures in emerging markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging market stocks are expected to rise by approximately 15% in the next 12 months, compared to a 10% increase for developed market indices [1]. - Since April 2, when President Trump announced tariffs, both MSCI emerging market index and its developed market counterpart have increased by about 14% [4]. - The inflow of funds into emerging market ETFs has been robust, with approximately $5.8 billion injected into iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, representing 5.8% of its total assets, while Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF saw $5.6 billion, or 3.3% of its total assets [4]. Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The Federal Reserve's potential for further easing is expected to benefit emerging market assets, as indicated by Chairman Powell's hints at possible rate cuts [6]. - Emerging market policymakers are currently more conservative and pragmatic, avoiding unsustainable fiscal deficits seen in developed markets [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Inflation - Emerging markets are viewed as having more attractive valuations compared to developed markets, with higher earnings growth prospects [7]. - The average inflation surprise index for emerging markets is at -19 this year, indicating lower-than-expected inflation, which is favorable for emerging market bonds [7].

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers believe that emerging market assets will significantly outperform developed market assets due to various factors including monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve and improved fiscal policies in emerging countries [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - Since April 2, both MSCI Emerging Markets Index and its developed market counterpart have risen approximately 14%, driven by optimistic expectations regarding trade tensions [4] - Analysts predict that the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index will increase by about 15% over the next 12 months, compared to a 10% increase for developed markets [1][4] Group 2: Fund Flows - Following President Trump's announcement of the "liberation day" policy, approximately $5.8 billion flowed into the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, representing 5.8% of its total assets, while the Vanguard Dow Jones Developed Markets ETF received $5.6 billion, accounting for only 3.3% of its total holdings [3] Group 3: Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Emerging market stocks are expected to perform better due to the benefits from global monetary easing, which promotes domestic lending and consumption, alongside a weakening dollar [3] - Emerging market policymakers are perceived to be more cautious and market-constrained, avoiding unsustainable fiscal deficits common in developed markets [4] Group 4: Investment Outlook - T. Rowe Price indicates that stock valuations in emerging markets are more attractive, with optimistic earnings growth prospects compared to developed markets [4] - Emerging market bonds are viewed as appealing investments due to relatively low inflation rates, with the average Citi Inflation Surprise Index for emerging markets at -19, significantly down from over 40 in 2022 [7]

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have risen due to the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts and optimistic earnings expectations, with the emerging market stock index up 0.6% for the second consecutive day and nearly 16% year-to-date [1] - Following a sell-off due to poor U.S. economic data, the index rebounded as traders anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, with an 80% probability, and a one-third chance of another cut by year-end [1] - The rise in U.S. corporate earnings indicates strong global economic activity despite higher tariff threats, with Jefferies' chief economist suggesting that moderate economic slowdown could lead to further easing by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - China's service sector activity unexpectedly accelerated in July, reaching its fastest growth in over a year, indicating resilience during the summer tourism season [2] - In Eastern Europe, Hungary's BUX stock index is nearing historical highs, driven by significant profit growth at OTP Bank in Q2 [2] - Investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about emerging market assets, shifting focus from developed markets like the U.S. to emerging markets such as China, influenced by macroeconomic factors including potential Fed rate cuts and the decline of "American exceptionalism" [2] Group 3 - Short-term market attention on India has increased due to President Trump's renewed focus on the country, particularly regarding India's purchase of Russian oil [3]

Group 1 - The benchmark index measuring sovereign currencies and stocks in developing economies has risen, marking its best performance in recent months due to a rebound in risk assets amid speculation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar [1][2] - Investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about emerging market assets, with firms like JPMorgan and Amundi SA shifting their focus from developed markets to emerging markets like China, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][8] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has increased by nearly 0.5%, achieving its largest single-day gain in over a month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index rose by 0.9%, outperforming developed market indices [1] Group 2 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate as early as next month, with market concerns about the independence of the Fed and statistical agencies growing due to recent personnel changes [2][7] - The non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, with downward revisions to previous months' data totaling 258,000 jobs, leading to a significant increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5][6] - The Philippine peso has performed best among emerging market currencies, with most Asian currencies strengthening against the dollar, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut [7] Group 3 - The argument for a bearish dollar index remains valid, as expectations of Fed rate cuts are likely to support emerging markets despite potential market volatility [5] - The ongoing trade policies and immigration restrictions under the Trump administration have contributed to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets [8][9] - JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on emerging market stocks, citing strong performance and favorable macroeconomic drivers, while Amundi SA has also shifted its asset allocation towards Europe and emerging markets [8][9]

Market Performance - US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.92%, Nasdaq up 1.24%, and S&P 500 up 0.88% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, with New Oriental rising over 11%, Kingsoft Cloud up over 6%, and several others including Weibo and iQIYI increasing by over 3% [1] - International oil prices and gold prices fell sharply, with WTI crude oil futures down nearly 5% at $65.32 per barrel and spot gold down nearly 2% at $3306 per ounce [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation in the US is expected to rise due to tariff impacts, emphasizing the Fed's responsibility to control inflation [2] - Michelle Bowman, the new Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed, expressed support for a potential interest rate cut if inflation pressures remain manageable [3] - Traders slightly reduced the likelihood of an early rate cut by the Fed, following Powell's comments that inflation is still somewhat above the 2% target [4] Emerging Markets - Emerging market assets outperformed global markets in the first half of 2025, despite geopolitical conflicts and trade wars impacting global capital markets [5] Company News - Apple has introduced a national subsidy policy on its official website, offering up to 2000 yuan off for specific products purchased through its online store in Beijing and retail stores in Shanghai [6] - Tesla's Robotaxi had a mixed debut in Austin, Texas, with reports of technical issues such as incorrect driving behavior and sudden braking in response to police vehicles [7]

Group 1 - Emerging market assets have declined for the third consecutive trading day due to heightened tensions in the Middle East and weakened risk appetite, with US and Brazilian markets closed for public holidays [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell by approximately 0.2%, with South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand leading the declines [1] - The Chilean peso reversed earlier losses to lead gains among emerging market currencies, while the Philippine peso lagged behind due to the central bank's decision to lower borrowing costs [1] Group 2 - The developing countries' stock index recorded its largest single-day drop since April, with Taiwan and Hong Kong stocks leading the decline [1]