美联储主席鲍威尔在2025年又搞出不少动静，特别是在利率政策上，他的鹰派表态，让人觉得跟中国宽 松的调子形成了鲜明对比。 2025年10月底，鲍威尔明确表示，美联储对12月降息的预期要收紧，因为通胀压力还没完全消退，劳动 力市场还挺稳。 此话一出，新兴市场资产立马往下走，美元指数上涨，直接抵消了中美贸易缓和带来的积极影响。中美 刚有点贸易停战的意思，结果美联储这一手，就让资金流动的方向又变了。 中国货币政策还是偏向宽松，央行通过各种工具保持流动性，像是降准和回购操作，这些都旨在稳住经 济增长。 可鲍威尔这么一说，外界解读成隔空喊话，因为美国高利率会吸走全球资金，中国要是继续宽松，汇率 压力就大了。 2024年12月，鲍威尔说过类似的话，当时美联储全年降了100个基点，但点阵图显示2025年只降50个， 现在看来执行得更紧。 2025年，美联储的动作其实从年初就开始调整。1月到2月，联邦基金利率保持在4.25%到4.5%，鲍威尔 在几次会议后反复强调，要根据数据来，通胀如果反弹，就得谨慎。 结果到7月，美债持仓数据出来，中国减持了25.7亿美元，持仓降到730.7亿美元，这是自2008年底以来 的最低点。日本持 ...

Group 1 - The core market products were actively traded last week, with A500ETF (159361) and other ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index having a total trading volume exceeding 130 billion yuan [1][6] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rise in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) index increasing by over 8% last week [2][4] - The technology sector experienced a pullback, but ETFs focused on technology themes attracted significant capital inflows, with the STAR 50 ETF (588080) seeing a net inflow of 2.3 billion yuan [8][11] Group 2 - The overall market showed signs of structural recovery, supported by economic resilience and favorable policies, indicating that A-shares may continue a steady upward trend [3][11] - The trading volume of ETFs tracking the ChiNext, STAR Market, and CSI 300 indices was notably high, with the STAR 50 ETF (588080) and ChiNext ETF (159915) among the top performers [6][7] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) announced its fourth dividend distribution this year, reflecting a consistent dividend policy [10] Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical and gold sectors led the market gains, with several ETFs in these categories showing significant weekly increases [4][5] - The net inflow of capital into technology and high-dividend sectors was substantial, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF (159316) and Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) receiving considerable attention [8][9] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with a focus on high-quality development and long-term growth policies, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for medium to long-term investments [11]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in global central bank monetary policies is leading to significant capital flows towards emerging markets, which are seen as having favorable investment opportunities due to lower inflation pressures and resilient economic growth prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is cautiously proceeding with interest rate cuts, while the European Central Bank has paused its actions, and the Bank of Japan is signaling potential rate hikes [2][3]. - Emerging market countries are accelerating their rate cuts, with Mexico and Poland recently lowering their rates to the lowest levels since 2022 [2][4]. - The divergence in monetary policies reflects a broader trend of easing to support economic growth amid weakening inflation expectations [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are benefiting from a larger space for rate cuts, which supports potential returns on local currency bonds and equities [4][5]. - The consumer price index in emerging markets has shown a rare reversal, with an average inflation rate dropping to 2.47% from July to September, compared to 3.32% in developed economies [4][6]. - The overall decline in inflation pressure in emerging markets allows for more supportive monetary policies, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4][6]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The current interest rate differentials are influencing global capital flows, with emerging markets generally offering higher interest rates than developed economies [5][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to favor emerging market assets, as capital seeks regions with greater potential [6][7]. - Market sentiment is optimistic about the investment potential in emerging markets, particularly in bonds and equities, despite warnings of potential corrections in global stock markets [7][8].

格隆汇10月31日｜在对国内经济的乐观情绪、全球货币政策宽松预期以及对新兴市场资产重新燃起的兴 趣推动下，南非股市正迈向自2013年初以来最长的月度连涨。基准指数富时/约翰内斯堡证券交易所非 洲综合指数10月上涨1.5%，有望实现连续第八个月上涨。银行、科技和电信类股票引领涨势，逐渐追 赶此前飙升的贵金属类股票，受益于估值合理以及市场对该国情绪的改善。Unum Capital分析师戴维斯 表示："宏观经济的乐观情绪以及资金向新兴市场的轮动正在推动涨势。本地导向型股票开始回升，可 能是因为与全球同行相比估值更具吸引力。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and continue to do so approximately three more times next year, despite recent hawkish comments from Powell [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls have shown weak performance over the last four months, with potential marginal improvement expected after the government reopens, but strong growth is unlikely [1] - Inflation is likely to remain moderate [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The impact of Powell's hawkish remarks is expected to be temporary, with a return to a rate-cutting cycle anticipated [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to continue in a downward trend, and the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken [1] - Gold prices are expected to recover after a pullback, benefiting from the advancing rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for both emerging market equities and bonds [1] Group 3: Alternative Scenarios - In a low-probability scenario where the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in December and struggles to implement cuts by 2026, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may remain elevated, putting pressure on gold prices and U.S. equities, as well as increasing stress on emerging market assets [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the target range for the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4% during the October meeting, aligning with market expectations, but the decision was not unanimous [1] - The bank anticipates a rate cut in December due to the slowing U.S. economy and rising unemployment, but believes that market expectations for consecutive rate cuts may be overly extreme [1] - The bank projects that the policy interest rate may reach 3% to 3.25% by the end of 2026, emphasizing that the timing of rate cuts is less important than the overall trend [1] Group 2 - The decline in the U.S. dollar, coupled with better economic performance outside the U.S., may support emerging market equities and bonds, which remain more attractive compared to U.S. assets [2] - The bank maintains a positive outlook on gold due to ongoing central bank and retail buying, but anticipates limited price increases for gold next year due to reduced geopolitical risks and stable inflation outlook [2]

Market Performance - Asian stock markets, gold, and oil all experienced gains on October 16, with the A-share market showing positive performance, particularly in military and communication sectors [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened higher, and gold stocks continued to rise, with Zhu Feng Gold increasing over 9% [1] - The South Korean Composite Index rose over 2%, while the Nikkei 225 Index increased by approximately 0.7% [1] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices surpassed $4,220 per ounce, marking a $200 increase over the week and achieving new highs for four consecutive trading days [2] - Brent crude oil futures rose by nearly 1% [2] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a general decline, with a significant drop in trading volume, leading to approximately 178,000 liquidations totaling $443 million [3] - Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced price decreases of 1.24% and 2.29%, respectively, with Bitcoin trading at $111,063.6 and Ethereum at $4,003.25 [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates at the end of October, as indicated by the recent Beige Book report, which noted minimal changes in U.S. economic activity [6] - Market sentiment suggests that concerns over the job market are overshadowing inflation worries, leading to expectations of a rate cut [6] - Analysts predict that a rate cut could enhance the attractiveness of emerging market assets and support global stock market performance [6]

Group 1 - The global capital flow pattern is changing, with emerging markets experiencing significant impacts [1] - Emerging market assets have seen a notable increase this year, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising approximately 25% and the MSCI China Index increasing over 30% [3] - There has been a substantial acceleration in capital inflows, with over $22.9 billion flowing into emerging market ETFs listed in the US this year [3] Group 2 - In August, emerging market stocks and bonds attracted nearly $45 billion in foreign investment, the highest level in nearly a year, with China accounting for $39 billion of this total [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange ranked first globally in financing scale during the first half of the year, indicating a significant recovery in interest towards Chinese assets [7] - Brazil has emerged as a key destination for international capital, with foreign net purchases of assets on the São Paulo Stock Exchange reaching approximately 26.9 billion reais (about 35.9 billion yuan), the highest since 2022 [9]

Market Overview - On September 25, A-shares experienced a volatile upward trend, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% at one point, reaching a three-year high [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.30 points, down 0.01%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.90 points, up 0.67%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 3235.76 points, up 1.58% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 239.18 billion yuan, an increase of 44.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] International Indices - The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.27% at 45754.93 points, while the Korean Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3471.11 points on the same day [2] - Domestic commodity futures saw most main contracts rise, particularly in copper [2] Bond Market - On September 25, the performance of government bond futures was mixed, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) closing at 114.110 yuan, up 0.120 yuan (0.11% increase) [2] - The 10-year bond futures (T2512) closed at 107.610 yuan, down 0.010 yuan (0.01% decrease) [2] - The 5-year bond futures (TF2512) closed at 105.525 yuan, down 0.015 yuan (0.01% decrease) [2] - The 2-year bond futures (TS2512) closed at 102.314 yuan, down 0.010 yuan (0.01% decrease) [2] ETF Performance - On September 25, various ETFs showed mixed results, with the Cloud 50 ETF (560660) rising 4.02%, and the Big Data Industry ETF (516700) increasing by 3.60% [3] - Conversely, the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513690) fell by 1.77%, and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) decreased by 1.64% [3] Institutional Insights - Guohai Securities' strategy team released a report indicating that A-shares are expected to advance further in Q4 2025, driven by policy and liquidity, with a more balanced style [4] - Barclays' research team noted that the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, global economic slowdown, and reduced market volatility create favorable conditions for emerging market assets [4] - UBS Wealth Management's CIO office suggested that gold prices may have further upside potential due to expected declines in U.S. real interest rates amid continued high inflation [4] - Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist at Yuekai Securities, stated that the current A-share rally is based on a more solid foundation, with sustainability likely to exceed most historical trends [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to support emerging market assets [1][3] - The strategist believes that the rate cut may lead to a weaker US dollar, which could enhance the performance of stocks and local currency debt in emerging markets [1][3] - Additionally, the reduced risk of a US recession suggests that the credit market will continue to receive strong support [1][3]