Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $4179 due to profit-taking by investors and short-term overbought conditions in the market [2] - The rebound from $4090 was supported by low-level buying, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among investors who view corrections as buying opportunities [2] - Fundamental factors supporting gold's long-term bullish trend, such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global trade tensions, and strong central bank gold purchases, remain unchanged [2][3] Recent Influential Events - Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is the most critical factor affecting gold prices, with high expectations for rate cuts in October and December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Ongoing global trade tensions, particularly those stemming from the Trump administration, are increasing economic uncertainty and driving safe-haven investments into gold [3] - Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East and other volatile regions, can reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Central bank gold purchases are at multi-decade highs, providing solid long-term support for gold prices and reinforcing bullish market sentiment [3] - The strength of the US dollar has a direct negative correlation with gold prices, influencing the market dynamics [3] Current Trading Strategy - The overall strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook while being cautious of short-term volatility [4] - Key support levels to watch are in the $4090 - $4100 range, which, if maintained, would indicate a healthy correction and present buying opportunities [4] - Short-term resistance is identified near the previous high of $4179, with a breakthrough potentially opening up price targets of $4200 - $4300 or higher [5] - Risk management is crucial, especially near historical highs where market volatility can increase significantly; recommendations include light positions and strict stop-loss orders [5]

Group 1 - The recent economic data from the United States has shown weakness, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield has retreated from the critical 5% level, with short-term Treasury yields also declining [1] - The dollar has remained resilient against most currencies recently, but has dropped approximately 8% since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming September meeting [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is a focal point for investors to gauge future monetary policy direction, with expectations of 75,000 new jobs [1] - The previous month's data significantly missed expectations, causing market volatility, making the actual results of this month's data particularly critical [1] Group 3 - Gold prices have experienced a technical correction after reaching historical highs, ending a seven-day rally and dropping to around $3,510 [3] - Currently, gold is consolidating in the range of $3,545 to $3,555, with key resistance and support levels identified at $3,560 and $3,535 respectively [3] - The performance of the non-farm payroll data will likely determine the direction of gold prices, with potential for a drop below the $3,500 mark if the data is weak [3]