Group 1: Banking Industry - The capital market's focus on the trend of deposit migration has increased, indicating a growing certainty in this narrative. It is projected that by 2026, residents may add approximately 2-4 trillion yuan of activated funds to non-deposit investment areas due to this trend [4][3]. - The report discusses potential beneficiaries of the deposit migration, highlighting the sectors and products that may attract these funds [4]. Group 2: Macroeconomy - In 2026, the pressure from mid-term elections may lead to a softening of Trump's foreign policy, shifting focus to domestic issues, which could effectively promote fiscal and monetary easing, alleviating three major constraints on the U.S. economy in 2025 [6]. - The technology, industrial, and resource sectors are expected to continue leading the market in 2026, while consumer and financial sectors may catch up as nominal cycles improve. A weaker dollar could provide room for the renminbi to appreciate, benefiting A/H shares [6]. Group 3: Strategy - Historical analysis of Japan's market in the 1990s shows that failure to address structural issues like household balance sheets and weak livelihoods led to prolonged economic stagnation. In contrast, significant policy shifts towards improving livelihoods and debt resolution post-2000 resulted in a long bull market [8]. - The report suggests that prioritizing policies that support household balance sheets and debt resolution could effectively enhance domestic demand resilience and lead to a stable revaluation of Chinese assets [8]. Group 4: Strategy - The A-share market in 2025 exhibited a trend of steady upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high. Key drivers included the restructuring of international order and domestic industrial innovation, which propelled the revaluation of Chinese assets [12]. - The market saw active participation from individual investors and a shift in funds due to deposit migration, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks and growth stocks outperforming value stocks by the end of the year [12].

Group 1 - The global economic environment in the second half of 2025 is characterized by complexity and fragility, with features of "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility" [8][10] - The US economy shows signs of weakening growth momentum, with negative policy effects becoming more pronounced. Key indicators such as consumer confidence and spending are approaching levels seen during the subprime mortgage crisis [11][24] - Inflationary pressures are re-emerging, with upstream cost increases expected to push the Consumer Price Index (CPI) back to around 3% by mid-year [11][32] Group 2 - In the US, the job market is weakening, with increased layoffs in mid-to-high-end positions and reduced support from the service sector and government employment [11][39] - The fiscal deficit risk is rising due to the expansionary policies of the Trump administration, which are expected to increase long-term bond yields [11][51] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in September and possibly 1 to 2 cuts throughout the year [11][45] Group 3 - In Europe, macroeconomic improvement is limited, with Germany's expanding fiscal deficit providing temporary confidence, but consumer investment and spending remain weak. The European Central Bank may have 1 to 2 rate cuts in the second half of the year [9] - Japan faces high inflation that suppresses economic recovery, with wage increases offset by rising living costs. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again before the end of the year [9] Group 4 - Asset allocation strategies suggest that US stocks may test previous highs but with significant volatility, particularly in July and August due to high inflation and trade negotiations [10] - US Treasury yields are expected to remain high, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [10] - Precious metals are viewed positively, with recommendations to buy on dips, maintaining a consistent strategy since 2024 [10]