Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global oil demand growth cycle will last longer than previously anticipated, influenced by the costs of low-carbon technologies, infrastructure development, and overall energy demand expansion [1][3] Demand Forecast - The daily global oil demand is expected to rise from approximately 103.5 million barrels in 2024 to about 113 million barrels by 2040, contrasting with last year's prediction of a peak in 2034 [3] - The petrochemical sector's demand is projected to increase, while the aviation industry continues to grow, and road transport's contribution to overall demand is expected to weaken after a prolonged period of stability [3] Long-term Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also adjusted its long-term forecasts, indicating that oil and gas demand will continue to grow and may peak around 2050, primarily due to the slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles [3] - In Goldman Sachs' view, while low-carbon technologies are developing, significant breakthroughs are unlikely in the short term, and the expansion of alternatives like liquefied natural gas trucks is limited outside of China [3] Market Transition - The energy market is currently in a transitional phase, shifting the focus from "when will demand peak" to "how the pace of change will evolve," with a strong resilience in oil demand observed [4] - The long-term trajectory of oil demand will require finding a new balance among technology, policy, and economic factors [4]

Group 1 - Spot gold reached a record high of $4180 per ounce before a sharp decline, dropping nearly $90 from the peak, but ultimately closed up 0.77% at $4142.15 per ounce, marking the third consecutive day of gains [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that market liquidity is tightening and that the balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end in the coming months; he noted that while recent economic activity data has exceeded expectations, it has not yet translated into a recovery in hiring, raising concerns about employment market risks [1] - Fed's Bowman continues to expect two more rate cuts by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - The IEA maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 699,000 barrels per day for 2026, while predicting a record supply surplus next year [1] - The IMF has raised its global growth forecast for 2025, citing that trade wars may hinder global output [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Saudi Aramco stated that global oil demand is expected to remain "strong" in the next two years, driven by growth in developing countries [1] - Global oil consumption is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with the current market fundamentals being "robust" [1] - The CEO emphasized that demand will continue to grow due to population growth and improved living standards in the "Global South" developing economies [1] Group 2 - As the world's largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Aramco maintains a maximum production capacity of 12 million barrels per day [1] - The company revealed that the cost of extracting Saudi crude oil is only $2 per barrel [1] - Saudi Aramco also anticipates "significant" growth in its natural gas business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an increase in global oil demand by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, with production increases from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina expected to meet this demand growth [1] Group 1 - The IEA's mid-term outlook indicates a significant rise in global oil demand over the next several years [1] - The projected increase in oil demand is quantified at 2.5 million barrels per day [1] - The supply from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina is anticipated to be sufficient to satisfy the expected demand growth [1]