Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices for gasoline and diesel will increase starting February 3, with gasoline prices rising by 205 yuan per ton and diesel by 195 yuan per ton, reflecting fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [3][7]. Price Adjustments - From February 3, the national average prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will increase by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter, respectively [3][7]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 8 yuan [3][7]. International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from January 20 to February 2, international oil prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the average price higher than the previous adjustment cycle [3][7]. - Initial price increases were driven by geopolitical tensions, including increased U.S. pressure on Iran and severe winter weather affecting U.S. oil production and exports, leading to a significant drop in commercial oil inventories [3][7]. - Brent crude oil futures prices peaked above $70 per barrel but later fell to around $66 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations [3][7]. Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, despite the initiation of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran [5][9]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, indicating a potential support for future oil prices [5][9].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will increase by 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2026, up from the previous forecast of 860,000 bpd in December 2022 [1] - The growth in global oil demand by 2026 is expected to come entirely from non-OECD countries [1] - Global crude oil supply is anticipated to rise by 2.5 million bpd, reaching 108.7 million bpd by 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In January, benchmark crude oil prices rose by $6 per barrel due to geopolitical factors involving Iran and Venezuela, but prices began to decline mid-month as tensions eased [1] - The global economy has adapted to and recovered from the impacts of U.S. tariffs imposed in 2025, along with a decrease in oil prices compared to the same period last year, contributing to increased global oil demand [1] - It is estimated that this year, global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.69 million bpd, a slight reduction from previous reports of oversupply [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and provides its first prediction for 2027 oil demand [1] Group 1: 2026 Oil Demand Forecast - The report predicts that global average daily oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching 106.52 million barrels [1] - The forecast for 2025 global average daily oil demand remains unchanged at 105.14 million barrels [1] Group 2: 2027 Oil Demand Forecast - For 2027, global average daily oil demand is expected to rise by 1.34 million barrels compared to 2026, reaching 107.86 million barrels [1] - Of the increase in global average daily oil demand in 2027, 1.24 million barrels will come from non-OECD countries [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global oil demand growth cycle will last longer than previously anticipated, influenced by the costs of low-carbon technologies, infrastructure development, and overall energy demand expansion [1][3] Demand Forecast - The daily global oil demand is expected to rise from approximately 103.5 million barrels in 2024 to about 113 million barrels by 2040, contrasting with last year's prediction of a peak in 2034 [3] - The petrochemical sector's demand is projected to increase, while the aviation industry continues to grow, and road transport's contribution to overall demand is expected to weaken after a prolonged period of stability [3] Long-term Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also adjusted its long-term forecasts, indicating that oil and gas demand will continue to grow and may peak around 2050, primarily due to the slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles [3] - In Goldman Sachs' view, while low-carbon technologies are developing, significant breakthroughs are unlikely in the short term, and the expansion of alternatives like liquefied natural gas trucks is limited outside of China [3] Market Transition - The energy market is currently in a transitional phase, shifting the focus from "when will demand peak" to "how the pace of change will evolve," with a strong resilience in oil demand observed [4] - The long-term trajectory of oil demand will require finding a new balance among technology, policy, and economic factors [4]

Group 1 - Spot gold reached a record high of $4180 per ounce before a sharp decline, dropping nearly $90 from the peak, but ultimately closed up 0.77% at $4142.15 per ounce, marking the third consecutive day of gains [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that market liquidity is tightening and that the balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end in the coming months; he noted that while recent economic activity data has exceeded expectations, it has not yet translated into a recovery in hiring, raising concerns about employment market risks [1] - Fed's Bowman continues to expect two more rate cuts by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - The IEA maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 699,000 barrels per day for 2026, while predicting a record supply surplus next year [1] - The IMF has raised its global growth forecast for 2025, citing that trade wars may hinder global output [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Saudi Aramco stated that global oil demand is expected to remain "strong" in the next two years, driven by growth in developing countries [1] - Global oil consumption is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with the current market fundamentals being "robust" [1] - The CEO emphasized that demand will continue to grow due to population growth and improved living standards in the "Global South" developing economies [1] Group 2 - As the world's largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Aramco maintains a maximum production capacity of 12 million barrels per day [1] - The company revealed that the cost of extracting Saudi crude oil is only $2 per barrel [1] - Saudi Aramco also anticipates "significant" growth in its natural gas business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects an increase in global oil demand by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, with production increases from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina expected to meet this demand growth [1] Group 1 - The IEA's mid-term outlook indicates a significant rise in global oil demand over the next several years [1] - The projected increase in oil demand is quantified at 2.5 million barrels per day [1] - The supply from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina is anticipated to be sufficient to satisfy the expected demand growth [1]