Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan due to 230 billion yuan maturing that day [1] - This week, the PBOC performed a total of 1.8268 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.2645 trillion yuan maturing, leading to a net injection of 562.3 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw a decline in overnight and 7-day rates, with the overnight Shibor down by 5.30 basis points to 1.4610% and the 7-day Shibor down by 4.00 basis points to 1.4880% [1][2] - The 14-day Shibor increased by 6.60 basis points to 1.6470% [1][2] Market Rates - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates fell, while DR014 rose. Specifically, the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 4.8 basis points and 8.4 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 257.8 billion yuan and 67.3 billion yuan [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 also fell by 4.7 basis points and 4.5 basis points, with transaction volumes decreasing by 38.9 billion yuan and 80.1 billion yuan [4] - The overall funding environment on September 19 was described as relaxed, with stable trading across various maturities [9] Bond Market - The primary market for negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) saw 100 issues with a total issuance of 205.31 billion yuan on September 19 [9] - In the secondary market, yields for various maturities showed slight increases, with the 1-month and 3-month government bonds remaining stable at 1.58%, while the 6-month bond rose by approximately 0.5 basis points to 1.645% [10] - The yield spread between 1-year and 9-month bonds was 0.25 basis points, remaining unchanged from the previous day [10] Future Outlook - The PBOC announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, indicating a focus on maintaining liquidity in the banking system [12] - Upcoming press conferences will address the achievements in the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the government's commitment to financial stability and development [12]

Market Overview - The bond market showed a weak consolidation on June 24, with the long-end driving an overall pullback in the curve, leading to a decline in government bond futures across the board [1] - The interbank bond yield rose by approximately 1 basis point, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan in the open market, and funding rates approaching the end of the month maintained an upward trend [1] Bond Futures and Yields - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27% at 120.930, the 10-year down 0.11% at 109.025, the 5-year down 0.07% at 106.185, and the 2-year down 0.02% at 102.504 [2] - Major interbank interest rate bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 1.645%, and the 30-year government bond yield up 1.25 basis points to 1.849% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 4.44 basis points to 3.855% and the 10-year yield down 2.75 basis points to 4.346% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.424% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, reflecting market expectations for easing policies from the European Central Bank [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 30-year government bonds at 1.2594% and 1.8477%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.87 and 5.37 [4] - The China Development Bank's 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4541%, 1.5253%, and 1.6447%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.78, 3.17, and 2.43 [4] Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate up 0.3 basis points to 1.37% and the 7-day rate up 13.2 basis points to 1.629% [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the 10-year government bond yield has recently broken below 1.65%, with long-term bonds like the 30-year and 50-year performing better, driven by institutional buying [7] - China International Capital Corporation suggested increasing allocations to 3-5 year bonds with relatively high coupons, while also considering trading opportunities in long-term bonds with good credit quality [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends, with the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rising 0.4bp. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both declined again, with the former falling more than 3bp and the latter more than 7bp. After the central bank's interest - rate cut policy took effect, the overall interest - rate center declined, and with consecutive net injections in the open market in recent days, the liquidity expectation was optimistic, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] - The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute faded out completely. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. The first - quarter financial data was stable and positive. The CPI in March declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. There were new developments in the recent tariff negotiations, but it was still a long way from reaching an agreement, which would impact the bond market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts' price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and other information are presented. For example, the T2506 contract price was 109.060, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 78,100 and an open interest of 329,444 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - The fundamentals show that Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 77 billion yuan on that day [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were negative, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was positive, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts was 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Trend Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, and the long positions increased. The T main contract had a net long position, but the long positions decreased [5]