新华财经北京1月6日电 2026年首批政府债券于近日启动发行，受供给担忧冲击，债市收益率连续两个 交易日大幅上行。截至6日早盘，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率上涨2.4BP，报1.8855%，接近2025年 3月中旬高点。30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率上涨1.7BP，再度突破2.30%。10年期国开活跃券 250215收益率也创下2025年9月以来新高，盘中高点报1.9775%，日内涨幅达到2.75BP。 前一交易日，上述债券品种收益率涨幅均超过2BP。 对于年初的政府债券发行高峰可能对债市造成的冲击，国盛证券首席固收分析师杨业伟表示："需要看 到，这并非趋势，而是节奏性的影响。"据他分析，2026年财政或将保持适度扩张，政府债券同比多增 或明显低于2025年。这意味着全年来看，融资相较于2025年增量或有限。那么1月份集中投放，则意味 着后续继续投放空间下降。"因此，这种影响更多是节奏性的，不会带来趋势性影响。随着 1 月末信贷 和政府债券冲量高峰期过去，对债市的影响也将逐步渐退。" 不仅如此，杨业伟还表示，进入新的一年后，一方面，根据巴塞尔框架SPR31最终修订文件，银行账簿 利率冲击情形中 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a decline in yields after an initial rise, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields both decreasing by nearly 1 basis point [1] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.32%, the 10-year main contract by 0.15%, the 5-year by 0.12%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [1] Yield Changes - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250011) fell by 0.45 basis points to 1.754%, while the 10-year policy bank bond (active bond 250215) decreased by 0.8 basis points to 1.931% [1] - The 30-year government bond (active bond 2500006) saw a yield drop of 2.5 basis points to 2.24% [1] Auction Results - In the primary market, the weighted average interest rates for various bonds were reported, with the 1-year government bond (250211X11) at 1.4748% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86 [3] - The 3-year government bond (250214X31) had a weighted average interest rate of 1.7263% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.54 [3] Credit Bond Market Performance - The top five non-financial credit bonds by increase included H0宝龙04 and various 万科 bonds, with the highest increase being 3.72% for 22万科02 [4] - Conversely, the top five non-financial credit bonds by decrease included H0中骏02 and 25鄂交K1, with the largest drop being 4.83% for 25鄂交K1 [4] Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 337.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan for the day [5] - Overnight SHIBOR rose to 1.4420%, while the 7-day SHIBOR increased to 1.5420% [5] Interbank Repo Rates - Interbank repo rates saw an overall increase, with FR001 rising by 15 basis points to 1.54% and FR007 increasing by 17 basis points to 1.65% [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and the economy has entered the flat part of the second L - shape [7]. - Structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Import - In September, the import amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [4]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 5.0% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products decreased by 10.3% year - on - year and 1.9% month - on - month; rare earth decreased by 9.2% year - on - year and increased by 26.8% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 2.8% year - on - year and increased by 10.8% month - on - month; basic metals increased by 16.1% year - on - year and 9.0% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 10.3% year - on - year and 14.2% month - on - month, with automobile products decreasing by 29.8% year - on - year and 7.5% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 14.2% year - on - year and 18.1% month - on - month [4]. - By country or region, in August, the top three in terms of import value were ASEAN, the EU, and Latin America. ASEAN's import value decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 11.4% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 10.3% month - on - month; Latin America's increased by 18.0% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. China Hong Kong, the UK, and India had relatively large year - on - year changes, at +304.2%, +25.5%, and +23.4% respectively [4]. 3.2 Export - In September, the export amount was at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, with a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1%, and the month - on - month increase continued for two consecutive months [5]. - Among key commodities, agricultural products increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 7.2% month - on - month; chemical and pharmaceutical products increased by 18.2% year - on - year and decreased by 4.7% month - on - month; rare earth increased by 97.1% year - on - year and 8.3% month - on - month; labor - intensive products decreased by 4.0% year - on - year and 6.6% month - on - month; basic metals decreased by 2.0% year - on - year and increased by 5.3% month - on - month;机电 products increased by 12.7% year - on - year and 5.2% month - on - month, with automobile products increasing by 8.7% year - on - year and decreasing by 2.9% month - on - month; high - tech products increased by 11.9% year - on - year and 13.2% month - on - month. The export product structure is constantly optimizing and innovating, with labor - intensive products decreasing year - on - year and机电 and high - tech products increasing year - on - year [5]. - By country or region, in September, the top three in terms of export value were ASEAN, the EU, and China Hong Kong. ASEAN's export value increased by 15.6% year - on - year and decreased by 6.1% month - on - month; the EU's increased by 14.2% year - on - year and decreased by 7.1% month - on - month; China Hong Kong's increased by 19.4% year - on - year and 28.0% month - on - month. Affected by tariffs and pre - export rushes, exports to the US decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports to the EU and ASEAN still maintained double - digit year - on - year growth [5]. 3.3 Market - On October 10, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November, causing bond yields to decline rapidly on October 11. As Trump's attitude changed and tariff negotiations cooled down, market risk appetite recovered, and on October 13, the yields of interest - rate bonds oscillated and then rose [6]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In September, the trade surplus increased by 10.6% year - on - year and decreased by 11.6% month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, the trade surplus increased by 26.0% year - on - year [3].

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity environment in China has shifted from tight to loose, with the central bank conducting significant reverse repos to support the market, indicating a proactive stance on maintaining liquidity during the quarter-end period [1][12]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields reaching 1.83% and 2.14% respectively, before retreating as equity markets adjusted [1]. - The central bank's actions included a total of 900 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos and maintaining MLF operations, reflecting a clear intention to support liquidity [1][12]. Bond Yield Changes - As of September 26, 2025, the yields on various maturities showed mixed movements compared to September 19, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points and the 30-year yield increasing by 1.74 basis points [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a slight decrease of 0.21 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 3 basis points over the same period [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - In the primary market, a total of 102 bonds were issued, amounting to 579.73 billion yuan, including 3 government bonds worth 247.53 billion yuan and 78 local government bonds totaling 196.05 billion yuan [7]. - Upcoming issuance plans for the week of September 28 to September 30 include 33 bonds, all of which are local government bonds, totaling 107.15 billion yuan [8]. International Market Context - The U.S. bond market saw yields rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting ongoing discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate adjustments [9][10]. - The divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the path of interest rate cuts indicates a complex outlook for global monetary policy, which may impact investor sentiment in the bond markets [9][10][11]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a supportive monetary policy stance to ensure liquidity and stabilize the financial market, while also addressing the challenges of domestic demand and low inflation [13][17]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a stable yuan exchange rate and enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market was highlighted as a key focus area [1][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities and Caitong Securities noted that the current monetary policy reflects a balance between stability and flexibility, with expectations of controlled liquidity pressure in the upcoming month [18][19]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with suggestions for investors to adopt strategies focused on short-term bonds and high-quality credit instruments [19].

Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the bond market yield showed an "N"-shaped trend. Credit bond yields fluctuated similarly to government bond yields, with overall wide - range volatile upward movement. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened slightly. Default risk continued to decline, with default entities concentrated in real - estate bonds, mainly private enterprises. The amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market increased year - on - year, while the amount of upgraded ones was lower than the same period last year [9][37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation Curve: Yields Fluctuated Widely and Rose - As of September 23, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 30BP, 20BP, and 30BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 22BP, 13BP, 8BP, and - 25BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 11BP, 21BP, 26BP, and 59BP respectively. Overall, the yields of medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds increased, and the credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10]. Treasury Bond Yields Presented an "N"-shaped Trend - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of the year, the central bank suspended Treasury bond trading and reduced open - market investment to stabilize the exchange rate. The tightened capital led to an upward trend in bond market yields. After the Two Sessions, the market adjusted its expectations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90% [11][12]. - **Late March - April**: The capital became looser, and the Sino - US tariff "tug - of - war" began. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range [16]. - **May - early July**: In early May, the central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut, along with positive results from tariff negotiations, led to a slight increase in long - end interest - rate bond yields. In June, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operations improved the capital situation, and bond yields fluctuated downward [16]. - **Mid - July - September**: The "anti - involution" policy raised inflation expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the bond market was suppressed. Bond yields rose, but short - end yields were stable, resulting in a "bear steep" pattern [16]. Credit Spreads - Credit Spreads of All Grades First Narrowed and Then Widened - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of January, interest - rate bonds quickly adjusted upward, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Before the Two Sessions, the market expected an RRR cut and interest rate cut, and credit spreads widened briefly. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed rapidly again [17]. - **Late March - April**: The bond market recovered quickly, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. - **May**: Credit spreads narrowed to the lowest point of the year due to the implementation of monetary policy tools and looser capital [17]. - **June - early July**: Short - end Treasury bond yields declined, and credit spreads first widened slightly and then narrowed [17]. - **Mid - July - September**: The bond market adjusted, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. The Risk of Downgraded Implied Rating in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In the first three quarters of 2025, the amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market was 764.1 billion, a significant year - on - year increase. The amount of upgraded credit bonds was 358 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [21]. Default: Default Risk Decreased, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In the first three quarters of 2025, there were 3 new first - time default issuers. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6 billion, and the default rate was 0.01%, with the annualized default rate decreasing significantly compared to previous years. Default entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds, mostly private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.2%, and the default scale and annualized default rate decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [24][31]. Recovery Rate Remained Low - In the first three quarters of 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 20.76 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have repaid 124.7 billion in principal, and the repayment rate of overdue principal was 11.9% [34].

Group 1 - The overall funding environment in July 2025 was balanced and slightly loose, with an increase in money market trading volume and a decrease in balances, leading to a decline in most repo rates [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure liquidity remains ample, aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The interbank market was active in July, with a trading volume of 231.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.7% and a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [1][2] Group 2 - In July, the PBOC conducted significant open market operations, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan, including 14 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 4 trillion yuan in medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [2][3] - Major repo rates showed a mixed trend, with the overnight repo rate (DR001) rising by 1 basis point to 1.39%, while the 7-day repo rate (DR007) fell by 7 basis points to 1.53% [2][3] Group 3 - The bond market saw a total issuance of 5.29 trillion yuan in July, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month but an increase of 27.6% year-on-year, with net financing reaching 2.31 trillion yuan, up 7.9% month-on-month and 86.6% year-on-year [4] - The yield on government bonds trended upward, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the yield curve steepening [4][5] Group 4 - The interest rate swap curve ended its inversion, with short-term rates decreasing and long-term rates increasing, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] - The average daily trading volume of interest rate swaps increased significantly, with a total nominal principal of 4.6 trillion yuan and a daily average of 200.9 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 30% [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to external factors, with long-term bond yields rising, indicating increased sensitivity to negative factors in the real estate and credit sectors [1] - The overall difficulty in bond market operations has increased, with investors' coupon returns being quickly eroded by rising interest rates, leading to weakened investment confidence [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to focus on the timing of restarting government bond trading, particularly monitoring bond yield levels [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The focus of future monetary policy will be on implementing previously announced financial policies and ensuring their effectiveness, with a supportive stance expected to continue [1] - In terms of expanding consumption, monetary policy is anticipated to target three areas: supporting service consumption and elderly loans, broadening financing channels for consumption, and enhancing policy coordination on the demand side [1] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of August 18, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) has seen a slight decline of 0.11%, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.76% [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.33 billion, with recent inflows and outflows remaining balanced [5] - The company bond ETF has shown a historical profitability rate of 83.33% and a monthly profitability probability of 79.94% [6]

Group 1 - The 0-4 government bond ETF (159816) has seen a 4 basis points increase, marking its sixth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 113.89 yuan [1] - The ETF experienced a trading volume of 26.68 billion yuan, indicating active market participation with a turnover rate of 143.03% [1] - The bond market's yield trends in the first half of 2025 were influenced by tightening liquidity, risk aversion, and tariff negotiations, initially rising and then falling [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield briefly fell below 1.60% at the beginning of the year but later adjusted to around 1.90% due to central bank tightening and equity market pressures [1] - From April to June, the yield fluctuated around 1.65% as a result of ongoing tariff negotiations and a series of growth-stabilizing policies from the central bank [1] - As of the end of June, the 10-year government bond yield was reported at 1.65%, down 3 basis points from the end of 2024 [1] Group 3 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the bond market remains in a bullish window, but the potential for profit is limited, suggesting a continuation of the strategy to exploit yield spreads in the short term [1] - Local government bonds currently offer a high cost-performance ratio, but a breakthrough in interest rates requires new catalysts such as central bank bond purchases or reductions in reserve requirements [1] Group 4 - The 0-4 government bond ETF closely tracks the CSI 0-4 year local government bond index, which includes non-directional local government bonds with a remaining maturity of 4 years or less [2] - The index is calculated using market capitalization weighting to reflect the overall performance of local government bonds within the specified maturity [2] - The 0-4 government bond ETF is the only short-duration local government bond ETF in the market, suitable for investors as a cash management tool [2]