| | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)》 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 12月12日 | 12月19日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1 | | 0.08 | 1.2695 | 1.2437 | -2. 58 | | 0. 17 | 1.3662 | 1.3336 | -3.26 | | 0. 25 | 1. 3706 | 1.35 | -2.06 | | 0.5 | 1.3819 | 1.35 | -3.19 | | 0. 75 | 1. 3868 | 1.3519 | -3.49 | | 1 | 1.3879 | 1. 3547 | -3.32 | | 2 | 1. 3951 | 1. 3752 | -1.99 | | 3 | 1.4161 | 1.3941 | -2.2 | | 5 | 1.6279 | 1.6021 | -2. 58 | | 7 | 1.741 | 1.7258 | -1.52 | | 10 | 1.8396 | 1. 8308 | -0. 88 | | 15 | 2. 1232 | 2. 1146 | ...

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 883 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40% on December 18. Additionally, a fixed quantity, interest rate tendering, and multi-price bidding reverse repurchase operation of 1000 billion yuan for 14 days was conducted. On the same day, 1186 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 697 billion yuan [1][3]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains generally loose, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly decreasing to around 1.27%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remain at 1.25%, with supply near the 100 billion yuan level. Market sentiment is stable, with overnight and seven-day repo rates maintaining low levels [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.65%, down more than 1 basis point from the previous day [6]. Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a 0.23% increase for the 30-year main contract, while the 10-year main contract remained flat. The 5-year and 2-year main contracts saw slight increases of 0.02% and 0.01%, respectively [11]. Regulatory and Economic Developments - The Ministry of Commerce's spokesperson criticized the European Commission's investigations into Chinese companies under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, emphasizing China's strong opposition and commitment to protecting the rights of Chinese enterprises. Ongoing discussions regarding electric vehicles and rare earth export controls were also highlighted [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to expand effective investment, particularly in emerging industries and technology sectors, to address the downward pressure on investment since 2025 [13]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation stressed the importance of promoting a unified national market and enhancing fair competition governance to stimulate economic activity [13]. Bond Market Events - Vanke proposed a 3.7 billion yuan medium-term note extension, while Sunac China expects to finalize its overseas debt restructuring by December 23, involving approximately 9.6 billion USD. Additionally, Baolong Real Estate's domestic debt restructuring plans have been approved [20].

12月18日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了883亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率保持 1.4%不变。与此同时，中国人民银行还以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14 天期逆回购操作。鉴于当日有1186亿元7天期逆回购到期，故公开市场实现净投放697亿元。 值得一提的是，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，更好满足不同参与机构差异化资金需求，中国人民银行此 前公告，9月19日起，14天期逆回购操作调整为固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标，操作时间和规模 将根据流动性管理需要确定。 中国人民银行上一次开展14天期逆回购还是在"十一"假期前，以维护假期前后流动性平稳，满足金融机 构跨假期的资金需求。对于此时重启这一工具，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券日报》记者表 示，岁末年初银行考核、财政收支、居民提现等流动性扰动因素增多，中国人民银行开展14天期逆回 购，可以有效熨平资金面波动，引导市场流动性处于较为稳定的充裕状态。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认为，一方面，年末资金面 波动加大，财政支出集中、企业结算需求上升，短期流动性趋紧，中国人民银行通过逆回购适 ...

来源：第一财经 时隔三个月，14天逆回购工具再次启用。 12月18日，央行在公开市场开展883亿元7天期逆回购操作，利率维持在1.40%，并同步进行1000亿元14 天期逆回购操作，当日有1186亿元逆回购到期。 货币政策调控更精准 进入12月，市场对资金面是否转紧的关注明显升温。 从走势看，隔夜资金利率呈现稳中有降态势。上周，具有市场风向标意义的DR001阶段性跌破1.3%，打 破了今年以来隔夜利率"低位低波但不破下限"的运行状态。本周DR001持续在1.3%的年内运行下限以下 波动，其中15日、16日、17日加权平均利率分别为1.2740%、1.2744%、1.2731%。截至18日发稿， DR001加权平均利率报1.2699%。 DR007加权平均利率本周持续高于政策利率水平。15日、16日、17日加权平均利率分别为1.4440%、 1.4488%、1.4423%、1.4390%。截至18日发稿，DR007加权平均利率报1.4390%。 进入12月，市场对资金面是否转紧的关注明显升温。在上周DR001（银行间市场存款类机构隔夜质押回 购利率）阶段性跌破1.3%后，本周该利率稳定在1.27%附近窄幅波动。 ...

文/刘佳 12月18日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了883亿元7天期逆回购操作。同时，以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。 值得注意的是，这是央行时隔近三个月重启14天期逆回购操作，上次开展14天期逆回购操作是在今年9 月26日。 14天期逆回购是央行进行公开市场操作的一种工具，属于短期流动性调节手段之一。加之年末临近，央 行按惯例在这一时点开启14天期逆回购。 在操作量上，今日14天期逆回购操作规模为1000亿元，较过去几年平均水平略有增加，这主要是根据金 融机构资金需求和市场流动性调控目标确定，属于适度水平。 业内人士分析表示，重启14天期逆回购主要是年末前后银行考核、财政收支、居民提现等流动性扰动因 素增多，央行开展14天期逆回购，可以有效熨平资金面波动，引导市场流动性处于较为稳定的充裕状 态。这有助于稳定市场预期，畅通货币政策传导。 鉴于当前货币政策延续适度宽松基调，继续要求"保持市场流动性充裕"。业内人士判断，年底前后央行 将持续通过7天期和14天期逆回购操作，有效控制短期流动性波动幅度。 编辑：冯樱子 ...

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12月18日，中国人民银行官网公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了883亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。 事实上，央行重启14天期逆回购，时机选在年末，完全符合惯例。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，年末的时候，市场资金面容易出现波动：比如银行要应对年终考 核、财政收支会有大额变动、居民可能会提前取现准备过年，这些都会让市场上的资金暂时变得紧张。 央行此时重启14天期逆回购，就是提前出手平稳波动。 因今日有1186亿元7天期逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放697亿元。 风口财经注意到，中国人民银行上次开展14天期逆回购操作是在9月26日，因此，这是央行时隔近三个 月重启14天期逆回购操作。 提前出手平稳波动 首先来搞懂，什么是14天期逆回购？ 14天期逆回购是央行进行公开市场操作的一种工具，属于短期流动性调节手段之一。 简单说，就是央行给市场上的金融机构 "投放短期资金"，同时收下这些机构手里的国债、央行票据等 安全资产作为抵押，约定14天后再把资产还给机构，金融机构需向央行支付相应利息，央行则收回此前 投放的资金 ...

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is preparing for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a meeting scheduled from October 20 to 23 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its monetary policy focus from "implementing appropriate monetary easing" to "detailed implementation," indicating a shift towards execution rather than broad policy changes [1][2] - Economic indicators show that industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first eight months, while the service production index grew by 5.9%, suggesting that the economy is performing above the target growth rate of 5.0% [1] Group 2 - The narrowing net interest margin of commercial banks, which fell to a historical low of 1.42% in Q2, poses challenges for monetary easing as it may further compress banks' margins and increase operational pressures [2] - The PBOC emphasized the need to balance financial support for the real economy with maintaining the health of financial institutions, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [2] - Recent adjustments in policy language indicate a focus on maintaining stability and predictability in monetary policy, with an emphasis on executing existing measures effectively [2][3] Group 3 - The PBOC is concentrating on maintaining ample liquidity in the market through various tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities [3] - Structural monetary policy tools are being utilized to support sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [3] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is being strengthened, with discussions on government bond issuance and offshore RMB bond mechanisms, indicating a collaborative approach to economic management [3][4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased liquidity injections since late September, indicating a clear intention to support the funding environment across the quarter [1] - On September 22, the PBOC restarted 14-day reverse repos with a scale of 300 billion yuan, followed by an increase to 600 billion yuan on September 26, and a total of 29,377 billion yuan injected from September 22 to September 29 [1] - The PBOC also conducted a 6,000 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on September 25, resulting in a net injection of 3,000 billion yuan for the month [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities reports that the PBOC's increased liquidity measures have led to a stable funding environment, with expectations for continued stability into October despite potential liquidity disturbances [2] - October is anticipated to be a month of high fiscal revenue and low expenditure, with significant government bond issuance potentially tightening liquidity, although the amount of interbank certificates maturing is expected to be lower than in September [2] - The PBOC is likely to continue using various liquidity management tools in October to maintain ample market liquidity, suggesting limited upward pressure on major money market rates [2] Group 3 - There is a growing expectation in the market for the PBOC to resume government bond trading operations, which had been paused earlier this year to avoid impacting investor needs [3] - Regardless of whether government bond trading resumes, Tianfeng Securities believes that liquidity concerns are manageable due to the diverse range of monetary policy tools available to the PBOC [3] - The PBOC can effectively stabilize funding fluctuations by flexibly utilizing short, medium, and long-term liquidity injection tools such as reverse repos and MLF [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The central bank's supportive attitude towards liquidity will be maintained, and the loose state will effectively support the bond yield to fluctuate at the bottom of the box. The report maintains the judgment that the top of the 10-year Treasury bond yield this year is 1.85% [1][17] - The long - end of US bonds fluctuates between 4 - 4.5%, the short - end is easy to decline but difficult to rise, and the report continues to be bullish on gold [2] - The US economy is still in an expansion state, but actual demand may be insufficient, and economic growth is slowing down. The labor market has not fundamentally improved, and the Fed's理事鲍曼 calls for a firm interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [21][24][27] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One - week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: This week (2025.9.22 - 2025.9.26), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp from 1.795% last Friday to 1.799%. The central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation was discontinuous, but the open - market operation maintained a net investment, and the MLF was over - renewed by 300 billion yuan, indicating support for liquidity [1][12][17] - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's interest rate cut "boot landed" last week, the yield curve steepened rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate reached 3.8%, but the manufacturing and service PMI in September decreased. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, but the labor market has not fundamentally improved. Fed理事鲍曼 called for an interest rate cut and reform of the monetary policy implementation mechanism [2][21][24] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - The open - market operations from 2025/09/22 - 2025/09/26 are detailed, with a total net investment of 940.6 billion yuan. The money - market interest rate and the issuance volume of interest - rate bonds in two weeks are also analyzed [32] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, inter - bank certificate of deposit interest rates, balance - treasure yields, vegetable price indices, commodity price indices, and the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are presented. The performance of various overseas indices and the yield changes of US bonds are also shown [59][60][72] 3. One - week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 78 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 196.051 billion yuan, a net financing of 122.461 billion yuan. The main investment directions are comprehensive, strategic development, and urban - rural infrastructure construction. 12 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and 2 provinces issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts [79][84][85] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 53.44 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 47.4454 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.89%. The top three provinces with active trading are Guangdong, Shandong, and Hunan, and the top three active trading maturities are 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [94] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and regions from 2025/9/29 to 2025/10/3 are presented [98] 4. One - week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 418 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 435.522 billion yuan, a total repayment of 358.923 billion yuan, and a net financing of 76.599 billion yuan, an increase of 9.68 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 23.029 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 99.627 billion yuan [99][100] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week are provided, with different changes in the interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds [111] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of each type of credit bond this week is detailed, with a total trading volume of 633.982 billion yuan [114] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of various bonds such as 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y national development bonds, and the yields of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all showed certain changes this week [116][118][119][120] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all widened this week [124][126][131] 4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends, with the grade spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowing [136][140][143] 4.7 Trading Activity - No specific content provided 4.8 Subject Rating Changes - No specific content provided