每经AI快讯，华泰证券研报指出，目前数据显示关税对美国通胀的传导目前仍相对温和。2025年5-6月 美国核心CPI不及预期，环比仅为0.1-0.2%，关税影响似乎不明显主要是因为：此前企业大量囤货、对 关税上升形成暂时缓冲，加权进口关税税率低于理论值、企业需求偏弱以及服务通胀偏低等。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Inflation Data Summary - The core CPI in the US for July increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0%[1] - The overall CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.29% in June to 0.2% in July, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained stable at 2.7%, slightly below the anticipated 2.8%[1] - The market's confidence in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with the probability of a rate cut rising to 96%[1] Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report indicates that tariffs have a mild impact on inflation, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff costs to consumers due to weak demand perceptions[2] - Despite an increase in tariffs in August, the overall core inflation is expected to rise only moderately, constrained by weak corporate demand and a softening job market[2] - Core service inflation showed a rebound, particularly in volatile categories like airfare, while core goods inflation remained subdued, with some categories experiencing a slowdown in price growth[1][2] Specific Inflation Components - Core services increased by 0.36% month-on-month, driven by transportation and medical services, while core goods rose by only 0.21%[4] - Energy prices fell significantly, with the energy component decreasing by -1.07% month-on-month, contributing to a decline in overall CPI growth by approximately 0.13 percentage points[4] - Food prices also saw a notable slowdown, decreasing by 0.28 percentage points to a growth rate of 0.05%[4]

Group 1 - The impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation has become a focal point in the market, with significant increases in tariffs since the beginning of the year, but the transmission effect on inflation has not been immediate [1] - The delayed transmission of tariffs to inflation is attributed to several factors, including phased implementation and transportation time lags, which typically require months to significantly affect prices [1] - Companies have adopted strategies such as restructuring trade and increasing domestic procurement to mitigate the actual tariff burden, while some industries have stockpiled inventory to temporarily avoid passing on tariff costs to consumers [1] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is merely delayed and not eliminated, with expectations that tariffs will gradually raise U.S. inflation levels starting in the third quarter [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is significantly influenced by concerns over tariffs pushing inflation, leading to a postponement of interest rate cuts [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, along with the potential impacts of immigration policy and the "Big Beautiful" Act, may contribute to increased inflation levels in the fourth quarter [3][7] Group 3 - Market participants express concern that while the magnitude of tariff transmission to inflation may be less than expected, its persistence could exceed expectations, leading to increased volatility in U.S. Treasury yields [5] - Analysts note that the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the time lag in its inflation impact create uncertainty regarding the timing of these effects [5] - The overall uncertainty in monetary policy is expected to rise by 2026 due to the delayed effects of tariffs and other economic factors, potentially slowing the pace of interest rate cuts [7]

Group 1 - The core CPI in June was 2.9%, below the expected 3.00%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures despite a rise in overall CPI [1][2] - Energy prices were a significant driver of the CPI increase, with gasoline prices rising by 1%, fuel oil by 1.3%, and electricity by 1% due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The decline in new and used car prices, down 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, contributed to the core CPI being lower than expected [2] Group 2 - There is increasing evidence that tariffs are pushing up prices, particularly in consumer electronics and home goods, contradicting the notion that tariffs have minimal impact on consumer prices [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by upcoming macroeconomic data, with a significant focus on inflation trends and employment figures [4][6] - Analysts predict that the inflationary pressures from tariffs will become more pronounced in the coming months, potentially leading to adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5][6]