Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Ratnik, predicts that India is likely to resume trade negotiations with the U.S. within two months, following a recent imposition of retaliatory tariffs by the U.S. on Indian products [2] - The U.S. has started imposing a 50% retaliatory tariff on Indian products since August 27, which is part of the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Benset, has reiterated plans to increase tariffs on India, accusing the country of profiting from cheap oil imports from Russia during the Ukraine war [3] Group 2 - India is strengthening its cooperation with Russia, with the intent to benefit its large refining industry rather than meeting domestic demand for oil [3] - On September 3, the Indian government announced a reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates from four brackets to two, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] - The new GST rates, effective from September 22, will cover a wide range of products, with significant reductions in tax rates for items such as air conditioners and televisions, potentially decreasing from 28% to 18% [3]

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not improved significantly, and the upside of the futures market is limited [1]. - Gold may experience a short - term correction, with a mid - term high - level oscillation pattern, and the divergence between gold and silver may occur [1]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 2250 level [3]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 1190 level [4]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term under the current tight - balance supply - demand situation [5]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs is supply - strong and demand - weak, and 09 - 01 contract reverse spread and hedging sales are recommended [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [7]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate widely with a slightly bullish trend in the medium term [7]. - Silver may face short - term correction pressure and then oscillate with a slightly bullish trend [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4750 level for the 09 contract [8]. - Crude oil prices are supported in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term [10]. - PTA supply - demand is turning weaker, and it is recommended to wait and see for the right time when crude oil weakens [11]. 3. Summaries by Product Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.36% (- 0.30%), coke daily output is 66.52 (- 0.27), coke inventory is 127.01 (+ 15.63), coking coal inventory is 818.92 (- 27.41), and coking coal available days are 9.3 (- 0.27 days) [1]. - Coking enterprises are in a state of small profit or slight loss, and the market has started the third round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Fed official's remarks reduce the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the US dollar index rebounds, and gold experiences a short - term correction [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), port inventory is 58.1 tons (+ 5.8 tons), production enterprise inventory is 37.05 tons (+ 1.55 tons), and orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons (+ 1.23 tons) [3]. - Methanol operating rate is 88.14% (+ 0.88%), and downstream capacity utilization is 72.96% (+ 1.83%) [3]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1375 yuan/ton (+ 3 yuan/ton), weekly output is 70.41 tons (+ 2.77%), and manufacturer inventory is 162.7 tons (+ 0.17%) [4]. - Float glass operating rate is 75.68% (- 0.34%), average price is 1206 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton), and inventory is 6975.4 million heavy - boxes (+ 3.09%) [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14400.31 tons (- 69.27 tons), and daily port clearance volume is 329.06 tons (- 9.72 tons) [5]. - Overseas supply growth is lower than expected, and some mines may increase shipments at the end of the fiscal or quarterly period [5]. Live Pigs - As of June 6, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg (- 0.01 kg), and the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.01% (- 0.76%) [6]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 39.5 yuan/head (+ 3.39 yuan/head), and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 94.98 yuan/head (+ 3.21 yuan/head) [6]. Palm Oil - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [6]. - The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is more inverted, and the spot basis is stable with a downward trend [6]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales volume has reached 64% of the expected output, and for the next year, producers have pre - sold 10.8% of the expected output [7]. - Domestic soybeans are affected by tight supply and weak demand, with a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. Treasury Bonds - From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Silver - In May, the non - farm payrolls increased by 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The short - term bullish sentiment for silver has weakened [8]. PVC - The capacity utilization rate is 80.72% (+ 2.53%), and social inventory is 58.88 tons (- 1.48%) [8]. - The average gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121 yuan/ton), and that of ethylene - based producers is - 520 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [8]. Crude Oil - As of June 6, the number of US oil drilling platforms decreased by 19 to 442 [9]. - Geopolitical factors and low inventory support oil prices in the short term [9]. Rubber - Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement [10]. - Rubber has experienced three consecutive rounds of inventory reduction [10]. PTA - PX CFR is reported at 825 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N spread is 262 US dollars/ton [11]. - The PTA industry load is rising, and polyester inventory remains high [11].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the unexpected impact of tariff conflicts, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond has fallen back to the level in early March, and the easing expectation has resurfaced. If the tariff situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase. If the impact of tariffs on exports and the economy is further reflected in April data, the easing expectation may continue to rise, and treasury bond futures are expected to challenge previous highs [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With strong signals from multiple departments to stabilize the market, risk aversion declined, the A-share market strengthened, and the bond market slightly corrected [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the interbank market all rebounded, with a larger increase of about 5bp at the short end and an increase of 3 - 4bp in the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250004 reported 1.6675%, up 2.75bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's open market operations turned to net injection. The funding situation marginally tightened but remained stable overall. The central bank conducted 1674 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 649 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, achieving a net injection of 1025 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates slightly increased, while medium - and long - term funds continued to decline [10] - **Conclusion**: Short - term attention should be paid to the responses of various countries before the additional reciprocal tariffs on April 9. If the situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase [11][12] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to further impose 50% tariffs on China, and China firmly opposes this. If the US implements tariff escalation measures, China will take countermeasures. The so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US on China are baseless and a typical act of unilateral bullying [13] - China will impose additional tariffs on imported goods from the US starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, adding 34% to the current applicable tariff rates [13] - The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US tariff hikes will lead to a "lose - lose" situation in the short term [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on April 8, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc., is provided [6] - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, changes in interbank short - term and medium - long - term funding rates are presented [10] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [34]