今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为75.36%减0.30%；焦 炭日均产 量66.52减0.27，焦 炭库存 127.01增15.63，炼焦煤总库存818.92减27.41，焦煤可用天数 9.3天减0.27天。评：焦企处于微利或小幅亏损状态，开工率尚 可，铁水产量短期仍处高位，但淡季将至叠加出口压力仍存， 需求预期不佳，市场已开启第三轮提降，后市仍有看跌预期。 煤矿生产仍处高位，上游煤矿库存压力凸显，现货成交清冷， 焦煤整体供需仍显宽松。总体来看，双焦基本面并无明显改 善，盘面反弹高度有限。 【短评-黄金】美联储穆萨莱姆称，关税可能推高CPI一至 两个季度，关税引发持续通胀的可能性为 "五五开"，官员们 可能受益于有利的情形，即贸易和财政政策的不确定性"在7月 消失，存在一种同样可能的情况，即关税对价格的影响可能会 持续更久，政治干预可能会使央行降低利率变得更加困难。 评：美联储降息预期减弱，美国就业数据具有韧性，美元指数 反弹，黄金短期回调。黄金白银或走分化行情，黄金中期高位 震荡思路对待。关注关税矛盾和地缘政治是否进一步激化。 投资咨询中心 2025 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the unexpected impact of tariff conflicts, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond has fallen back to the level in early March, and the easing expectation has resurfaced. If the tariff situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase. If the impact of tariffs on exports and the economy is further reflected in April data, the easing expectation may continue to rise, and treasury bond futures are expected to challenge previous highs [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With strong signals from multiple departments to stabilize the market, risk aversion declined, the A-share market strengthened, and the bond market slightly corrected [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the interbank market all rebounded, with a larger increase of about 5bp at the short end and an increase of 3 - 4bp in the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250004 reported 1.6675%, up 2.75bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's open market operations turned to net injection. The funding situation marginally tightened but remained stable overall. The central bank conducted 1674 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 649 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, achieving a net injection of 1025 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates slightly increased, while medium - and long - term funds continued to decline [10] - **Conclusion**: Short - term attention should be paid to the responses of various countries before the additional reciprocal tariffs on April 9. If the situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase [11][12] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to further impose 50% tariffs on China, and China firmly opposes this. If the US implements tariff escalation measures, China will take countermeasures. The so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US on China are baseless and a typical act of unilateral bullying [13] - China will impose additional tariffs on imported goods from the US starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, adding 34% to the current applicable tariff rates [13] - The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US tariff hikes will lead to a "lose - lose" situation in the short term [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on April 8, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc., is provided [6] - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, changes in interbank short - term and medium - long - term funding rates are presented [10] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [34]