Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年8月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为17268吨 环比减少7 31% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . , 。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为93672吨 环比减少1 27% 上周三元材料 ， . , | | | | | 样本企业库存为16499吨 | 环比减少0 32% ， . 。 | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为68214元/吨 日环比增长0 79% 生产所得为 ， . , | | | 1 、 | 基本面: | | 中 ...

Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 opened at 64,300 yuan/ton and closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.71% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,014,558 lots, and the open interest was 356,161 lots, an increase of 33,301 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 600,972 lots, an increase of 9,072 lots. The total trading volume of contracts increased by 4,747 lots to 502,065, and the overall speculation degree was 0.84. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 11,204 lots, a decrease of 399 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong upward trend yesterday, opening higher, oscillating and surging, with bulls dominating during the session and stabilizing at a high level at the end of the session, finally closing up 3.71% [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 63,500 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Strategy - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures was mainly affected by news disturbances from Jiangxi's mining end and short - term warehouse receipt cancellations. July warehouse receipts need to be compulsorily cancelled, and there are few newly registered warehouse receipts currently, resulting in significant short - term delivery games, which have a greater impact on near - month contracts. The impact of the Jiangxi mining end disturbance on subsequent mining is not clear, and its short - term impact on supply and demand is relatively limited. Currently, the supply and demand are still relatively loose [2]. - In the medium to long term, there has been no substantial change in the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, and recent policies have little impact on it. The rebound height should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the impact of mining end disturbances. If the production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is affected, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate will change [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wait and see for near - month contracts, and sell and hedge on rallies for far - month contracts. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the weak and volatile trend may continue [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 65,960 yuan, down 300 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 114,538 lots, down 13,523 lots; the open interest was 244,729 lots, down 4,318 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 67,220 yuan, down 440 yuan; the trading volume was 13,046 lots, up 348 lots; the open interest was 35,957 lots, up 1,481 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,029 yuan/ton, down 343 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 773 US dollars, down 3 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,525 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts and Related Products**: The prices of various lithium salts and related products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials showed different degrees of decline or change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Sichuan Tianfu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. was established, with a registered capital of 500 million yuan. It is wholly - owned by Sichuan Natural Resources Investment Group Co., Ltd., marking the official entry of Sichuan state - owned capital into the lithium ore competition [3]. - The White House said that Trump would sign an executive order to reduce the impact of auto tariffs, and companies paying auto tariffs would no longer be subject to other tariffs such as aluminum and steel, and the paid tariffs would be compensated [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3].