Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore to produce carbonate lithium faced cost inversion [5]. - Demand side: Overall production scheduling in December decreased month - on - month, while large battery cell manufacturers' production scheduling in November increased by 2% month - on - month. In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - Inventory: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]. - Strategy: From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine remains shut down, and Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses (all expired, with no impact on actual supply). In November, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 3% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 729,000 tons, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The total import of carbonate lithium in November was about 22,000 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease but a 15% year - on - year increase. Downstream demand is strong, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage remains good, but production scheduling in January is expected to decline slightly. In November, cathode production scheduling increased by 2% month - on - month. The risk of Yichun's mining licenses persists. With profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production, and the cost center shifts upward. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption within the year has failed. After cathode material manufacturers jointly cut production, downstream production scheduling is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. As downstream purchases of carbonate lithium slow down the destocking rate and traders' inventory accumulates, prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Key Data Tracking Production - related Data - Carbonate lithium weekly production: Last week, production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons [5] - Carbonate lithium production by raw material in November 2024: Salt lake accounted for 19.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, and lithium spodumene 45.37% [25][26] Import - related Data - In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. Imports from Australia increased by 44% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons (a 28% month - on - month decrease), and from Nigeria were 92,000 tons (a 16% month - on - month decrease). In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease, with 10,800 tons from Chile, accounting for 49% [5] Battery - related Data - In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase [6] Inventory - related Data - This week, carbonate lithium factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 -广告- 线上直播 会议主题： 储能电池涨价了? 一：碳酸锂及储能电池供需状态 二：后续价格展望 会议时间： 2025年12月24日15:30 会议平台： 鑫椤锂电视频号 会议直播预约： 微信扫描下方二维码预约直播会议 鑫椤资讯储能高级研究员 深耕锂电产业链研究 直播内容 碳酸锂及储能电池供需状态 后续价格展望 直播时间 : 12月24日 15:30 扫码预约直播> ...

一：碳酸锂及储能电池供需状态 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 线上直播 会议主题： 储能电池涨价了? -广告- 二：后续价格展望 会议时间： 会议平台： 2025年12月24日15:30 鑫椤锂电视频号 会议直播预约： 微信扫描下方二维码预约直播会议 鑫椤资讯储能高级研究员 深耕锂电产业链研究 直播内容 碳酸锂及储能电池供需状态 后续价格展望 直播时间 : 12月24日 15:30 扫码预约直播> ...

隔夜，欧美市场在节日效应下资金驱动美股和商品市场上涨，贵金属受到金融属性和工业属性双重提振 而涨幅领先，金银均创历史新高，铂金涨幅则更大。国际金价开盘后持续震荡上行价格突破前高涨幅进 一步扩大站上4400美元上方，收盘报4442.41美元/盎司，涨幅2.41%；国际银价开盘早段快速拉升至69 美元上方后有所回落尾盘涨幅回升，收盘报69.01美元/盎司，涨幅2.8%。铂钯在市场规模相对较小的情 况下涨幅更加显著，广期所盘中铂金、钯金合约均触及涨停，伦敦铂金站上2100美元上方收盘价为 2123.35美元/盎司创2008年以来新高，现货钯金涨幅相对较小收盘报11美元/盎司，涨2.76%。截至11点 20分，有色金属ETF(512400.SH)涨1.95%，山东黄金涨7.67%。 总体看，有色金属板块投资逻辑聚焦三 大主线： （一）贵金属：降息预期、库存低位和避险情绪共振 近期贵金属价格表现强势，现货黄金、白银价格持续攀升并屡创新高；铂钯期货主力合约，日内涨幅超 5%且多次触及涨停。核心驱动因素在于市场对美联储后续降息的预期持续升温，叠加全球地缘政治不 确定性引发避险情绪攀升。行业统计显示，目前COMEX白银库存约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the weekly trends of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, presenting the latest logic changes, supply - demand situations, and price trends for each metal [1] Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment**: Both domestic and foreign prices are oscillating, with a rigid support at the LME average price. The market is trading the probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the probability has rapidly increased [1] - **Domestic supply - demand**: The long - term negotiation of domestic copper concentrate processing fees is highly concerned. The spot import copper concentrate index is below $10. Domestic refined copper output in November is expected to decline month - on - month. In October, refined copper exports increased to 6.59 tons, and scrap copper imports reached 19.66 tons, with a cumulative supply increase of 1.99% in the first ten months. The output of major household appliances in October decreased month - on - month, and the market is watching the power - end orders. The domestic spot copper price passively follows the futures price, and there is a certain bullish sentiment in the spot market. The SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 tons to 18.06 tons [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport is expected to restart the production of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine before July 2026, with the 2026 production expected to be the same as in 2025. The market is concerned about the restrictions on scrap copper exports. Affected by UK tariffs, European scrap copper has flowed to the Americas, and the COMEX copper inventory has reached a record high of nearly 37 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Last week, the "head - and - shoulders" pattern of Shanghai copper was supported at a key position, and trading became oscillating again. The stop - loss position of previous short positions was lowered to 86,500 yuan, using the 11 - 10 - day moving average as the strength - weakness boundary [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price in Guinea is dropping towards $70, with an expected increase in ore supply. The domestic operating alumina production capacity is 9.61 million tons. Some enterprise overhauls or technological upgrades have short - term impacts, and there is no long - term production reduction. The alumina market is in significant oversupply, and the spot index is approaching the cash - loss level. Low - cost enterprises still have profits, and the price is weakly moving towards the support level of 2,000 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - **Supply**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable above 4 million tons. The first - phase 80 electrolytic cells of Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase project are gradually being put into production, and a 30,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of SPIC is planned to start production at the end of the year [1] - **Demand**: The SMM shows that the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remains at 62%. In October, aluminum product exports decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; aluminum product exports decreased by 24,000 tons month - on - month to 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - **Inventory and spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 33,000 tons to 613,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 16,000 tons to 130,000 tons. The inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China have slightly narrowed, and the processing fee of South China aluminum rods has rebounded to 300 - 100 yuan [1] - **Price trend**: In the short term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market risk preference is suppressed. The non - ferrous metals market has reduced positions and prices have declined. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. After the price decline, downstream enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, with rigid demand but few highlights. The Shanghai aluminum price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short - term upward trend has turned to oscillation, with a possible continued adjustment and support at around 21,100 yuan [1] Zinc - **Price trend**: The zinc price is weakly adjusting, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed [1] - **Spot and supply**: Under extreme domestic - foreign spreads, the export of zinc in November is expected to increase. The zinc inventory has increased to 47,325 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium is still at $140/ton. As the weather turns cold, domestic northern mines are gradually shutting down, and the supply of ore is further tightened. The TC of domestic and foreign mines is declining. The zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. The SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 151,000 tons. The split structure of domestic and foreign inventories is gradually being repaired, the import - ore smelting profit has improved, and domestic smelters' acceptance of imported ore has increased. Due to the high sulfuric acid price of 980 yuan/ton, the production - reduction expectation of domestic smelters in December is not strong, and the supply - reduction pressure of zinc ingots is not significantly weakened [1] - **Consumption**: The export of galvanized products is bright. Domestically, due to the weak real estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, and the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, the expected consumption increment is insufficient. As the northern weather turns cold, the demand enters the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious about future orders [1] - **Price trend**: Supported by smelting costs, with good external demand but weak domestic demand, be vigilant about the rapid change of capital sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Price trend**: The LME lead has a high inventory, the domestic supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and long - position holders are leaving the market. Both domestic and foreign prices have dropped sharply, with the LME lead falling 3.73% and the Shanghai lead falling 1.91% last week. The import window for lead has opened [1] - **Spot and supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 282,000 tons. The supply of domestic lead concentrate is tight, with the imported ore TC at - 100 to - 90 dollars/dry ton and the domestic PB50 lead concentrate at 200 - 100 yuan/metal ton. The SMM lead social inventory has decreased to 37,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory of recycled lead enterprises has decreased to 2,400 tons, the lowest since 2021. There are both overhauls and restarts in primary and recycled lead smelters. In the short term, the supply of recycled lead is slightly tight, and the price difference between refined and recycled lead has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 lead's discount to the near - month contract has narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. The import window opened intermittently in November, and the overseas replenishment is expected to reach the October level. Pay attention to the production dynamics of recycled smelters after profit pressure [1] - **Consumption**: From January to October, the cumulative export of lead - acid batteries was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Affected by tariffs and the improvement of overseas battery supply capacity, there is no expected increment in battery exports at the end of the year. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, the terminal consumption of batteries has not improved significantly, and different battery production enterprises have different order performances. Enterprises produce according to sales. The finished - product inventory of battery enterprises is 15 - 17 days, and the raw - material inventory is 3 - 1 days. Domestic consumption lacks growth expectations but has rigid demand [1] - **Price trend**: There is a game between cost and consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: The Shanghai nickel price is oscillating downward, with dull trading and increasing positions; the Shanghai stainless - steel price is also declining, with decreasing trading volume [1] - **Demand**: In the stainless - steel spot market, the nickel premium is 500 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 250 yuan. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the high - nickel ferrochrome price is 89 yuan/nickel point. The support brought by the previous price rebound is weakening, and the overall price of the industrial chain is under pressure. A large stainless - steel manufacturer has announced the procurement prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome, weakening the cost support, and the spot price is difficult to change the weak situation [1] - **Spot and supply**: The Jinchuan premium is 4,350 yuan. The pure nickel inventory has decreased by 900 tons to 52,300 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory has increased by 700 tons to 30,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons to 940,000 tons [1] - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai nickel market will reduce inventory, but short - selling is the main strategy [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The domestic and foreign tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The Shanghai tin market has reduced positions, but the enthusiasm of long - term funds for trading is still high. Pay attention to the situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo again, and the Shanghai tin price has repeatedly tested 295,000 yuan [1] - **Supply**: In October, the physical volume of domestic tin concentrate imports was at a high - low level, with the main importing countries contributing to the increment. The situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is tense, and a landslide in a tin mine has caused heavy casualties among manual miners, but there is no news about Alpha Tin's production and sales [1] - **Consumption**: There are few domestic highlights. The household appliance output in October decreased month - on - month, and the consumer electronics market is average. The SMM social inventory has increased by 211 tons to 2,050 tons, the LME inventory is 3,085 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium has expanded to $114. The domestic and foreign inventories are lower than the same period in the previous two years, and the situation is relatively neutral [1] - **Price trend**: Continuously track the news from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the previous high - position short positions stop - loss at 295,000 yuan, short - selling is the main strategy, and out - of - the - money call options can be used to hedge risks [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures had a strong start at the beginning of the week and a weak end at the weekend, with active trading and significant capital movement [1] - **Spot**: The Shanghai lithium carbonate spot price has continued to rise, reaching 92,000 yuan. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton. Lithium salt factories are operating at a high - capacity utilization rate, and overseas mines are raising prices and frequently releasing goods [1] - **Demand**: Downstream material factories are actively producing, with both supply and demand booming. The production plans of battery and cathode - material enterprises in November are continuously improving, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decrease [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 118,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 2,170 tons to 26,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 3,300 tons to 49,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 3,150 tons to 48,000 tons. The sentiment in the intermediate link has recovered, and the spot market has certain support. The latest price of Australian mines is $1,130, and the mine - end price remains strong [1] - **Price trend**: The futures price is oscillating violently at a high level, with large market differences, and risk control should be the priority [1] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Last week, the "anti - involution" measure of joint production reduction by the organic silicon industry boosted the market sentiment. The price broke through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton but failed to maintain, and then fell back to around 9,000 yuan/ton to oscillate [1] - **Supply - demand**: The weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is stable at 8% (unchanged month - on - month), and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are also unchanged month - on - month. Sichuan will enter the dry - water period at the end of November, and the operating rate may decline. The domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from October (affected by seasonal shutdowns), and the production in December is expected to decline slightly [1] - **Demand**: The domestic organic silicon printing price has increased to 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of about 850 yuan/ton. The actual - controller meeting of downstream factories has reached a consensus on production reduction, which will be implemented on December 1, and it is expected to reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 400 tons per month [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM industrial silicon rod and powder inventory is 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary warehouses is 129,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and the inventory in bonded warehouses is 419,000 tons (unchanged) [1] - **Summary**: The expected production reduction in the organic silicon industry is expected to have a limited impact on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon. In the short term, the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend. Track the organic silicon price dynamics, and the downstream price - fixing repair may further drive market fluctuations [1] Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon price has remained stable [1] - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors, the polysilicon industry's production plan in November has decreased by 14,000 tons compared to October, and there is an expected downward adjustment in December. After the overseas demand recedes, the domestic demand for silicon wafers has also declined, and the intensified industry competition has put pressure on the external procurement demand for silicon wafers [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM data shows that the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 259,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Currently, the prices and production plans of downstream silicon wafers and battery wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain are continuously weakening. Although the polysilicon industry itself is showing a month - on - month production - reduction trend, the actual effect of the marginal improvement in supply - demand is limited. In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment on the one hand and its own fundamentals on the other hand, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lithium carbonate futures market is showing strong performance, with a significant increase of 2.50% to 93,600.0 CNY/ton as of November 25 [1] - Supply data shows that lithium carbonate production reached 89,300 tons by October 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 5,790 tons, and the operating rate was 75.34%, up 16.04% year-on-year, indicating a stable supply side [1] - Demand remains robust, with high production rates in downstream sectors, particularly in power batteries and energy storage cells, leading to explosive growth in demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate [1] Group 2 - Inventory levels have decreased for 14 consecutive weeks, reaching 118,400 tons, with inventory turnover days dropping to 26.8 days; however, the pace of inventory reduction has slowed, possibly due to the emergence of hidden inventories [1] - The outlook for the lithium carbonate market suggests a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth, with positive demand expectations and ongoing inventory depletion [2] - In the options market, the put-call ratio is at 89.31%, down 37.68% month-on-month, indicating a shift towards bearish sentiment, while implied volatility has slightly decreased [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.88% to 3857.24 points, Shenzhen Component down 2.72%, and ChiNext down 3.18% [1][2] - Over 4900 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad market weakness [1] Sector Performance - The new energy and AI sectors saw significant declines, while cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and steel also performed poorly [1] - The banking sector played a protective role, with China Bank rising over 2% during the session and accumulating an 8% increase for the week, stabilizing its market capitalization at 2 trillion yuan [2] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector showed resilience, with Qianyuan High-Tech hitting a 20% limit up, and other companies like Qiule Seed Industry and Shennong Seed Industry rising over 8% [6] Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract LC2601 hitting a 9% limit down and closing down 8.02% at 92,000 yuan per ton [8] - The trading and settlement parameters for lithium carbonate futures have been adjusted, with transaction fees for LC2601 increasing from 0.08% to 0.12% [9][10] - The lithium battery sector faced significant losses, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and others hitting their daily limit down [12] - Current supply and demand for lithium carbonate remain strong, but high prices are leading to cautious sentiment in the downstream market, resulting in a slowdown in spot market transactions [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 82,600 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 87,360 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5.76%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will continue to increase production, the demand side will continue to grow, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, higher than the historical average. Among them, lithium spodumene production was 12,904 tons, a 1.67% decrease from the previous period; lithium mica production was 2,941 tons, a 2.32% decrease; salt lake production was 3,555 tons, a 7.11% increase; and recycling production was 2,145 tons, a 3.13% increase [4]. - **Demand Side**: In October 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 126,961 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. The predicted demand for next month is 132,001 physical tons, a 3.97% increase. The export volume in October was 324 physical tons, a 14.57% increase, and the predicted export volume for next month is 454 physical tons, a 40.12% increase. In October, the production of power batteries, energy - storage batteries, and new energy vehicles all showed growth, and the inventory of dealers decreased, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate [5][6]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 84,346 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%, resulting in a loss of 397 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 87,365 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 5,577 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm was average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory was 28,270 tons, a 7.96% decrease; the downstream inventory was 48,772 tons, a 6.22% decrease; other inventories were 43,430 tons, a 5.34% increase; and the total inventory was 120,472 tons, a 2.80% decrease [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore are presented in the report, along with the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium ore from October 2024 to October 2025 [16][18][20]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: The report shows the production, capacity, import, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from different sources and time periods [22][27]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: Information on the production capacity utilization rate, production, export, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide is provided [29][31]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: The cost, profit, and cost composition of various lithium compounds, including lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium, are analyzed [34][37][40]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly data, is presented [42]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: The report shows the price, production, shipment, and export of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells [46][49]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, production capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [52][55]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: Information on the price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials is provided [58][60]. - **Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, production, export, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [62][65]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles are analyzed, along with the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers [70][74]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend. The report provides the price and trading volume data of the LC main contract from October 15 to November 14, and it is expected that the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [77][78].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Carbonate lithium futures' price and trading volume reached a new high this year, with strong capital gaming sentiment. The supply growth of carbonate lithium is minimal, and the high supply pressure earlier this year is easing. Demand is expected to remain strong, and with inventory depletion accelerating, the price of carbonate lithium is expected to continue rising [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium's weekly production reached 21,545 tons, a slight increase of 9 tons from last week, showing a clear peak signal. The production from spodumene and mica decreased, while that from salt lakes and recycling increased. With winter approaching, salt - lake production is expected to decline, so supply growth is minimal [10]. - On the demand side, the electrolyte price remained high and flat this week. The upstream's willingness to ship decreased, while the downstream's purchasing intention continued to rise. The price of 6F kept strengthening, and the supply - demand in the electrolyte field continued to tighten. The prices of cathode materials all rose, with the 6 - series ternary increasing by 4,000 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate by 920 - 1,060 yuan/ton. The new - energy vehicle market in both commercial and passenger segments grew rapidly, and the energy - storage market had strong supply and demand. Carbonate lithium demand is expected to remain good this year [10]. - The social inventory of carbonate lithium decreased by 3,481 tons this week, and the inventory depletion speed continued to accelerate. Supported by demand, the spot price of carbonate lithium is approaching the futures price, and the price is expected to keep rising [10]. 2. Industry News - Global second - largest miner Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion. The project has faced local community opposition, political protests, and slow permit approval. This move aligns with the new CEO's strategy of simplifying operations and cutting costs [13]. - The lawsuit between Tianqi Lithium and Chilean chemical and mining company SQM over the "public - private partnership" issue has progressed. On the evening of November 12, the local Chilean court rejected Tianqi Lithium's lawsuit. Tianqi Lithium said it will comprehensively evaluate and may take further actions [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].