今日早盘，A股主要指数集体回调，新能源与AI两大热点题材高位下挫，有色金属、钢铁等周期板块也表现不佳。银行板块继续充当护盘角 色，农业板块逆势走强。截至午间休市，上证指数报3857.24点，跌1.88%；深证成指、创业板指分别下跌2.72%和3.18%。全市场超4900股下 跌。 | 上证指数 深证成指 北证50 | | --- | | 3857.24 12627.85 1405.32 | | -73.81 -1.88% -352.97 -2.72% -40.22 -2.78% | | 创业板指 沪深300 科创综指 | | 2945.61 4476.40 1515.90 | | -96.73 -3.18% -88.55 -1.94% -- 45.99 -2.94% | 银行、农业板块相对强势 银行板块继续充当护盘角色，中国银行盘中涨超2%，本周累计涨约8%，市值站稳2万亿元。 消息面上，荃银高科昨晚公告称，控股股东中种集团拟向除收购人以外的荃银高科全体股东发出部分要约，约占荃银高科已发行股份总数的 20%。本次要约收购价格为11.85元/股，较昨日收盘价溢价16.63%。 农业板块逆势走强，荃银高科早盘收获 ...

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年11月10日-11月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周01合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为82600元/吨，周五收盘价为87360元/吨，周涨幅为5.76% 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21545吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产12904吨，环 比减少1.67%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2941吨，环比减少2.32%,高于历史同期平均水平， 盐湖产3555吨，环比增加7.11%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2145吨，环比增加3.13%,高于历史 同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年10月碳酸锂需求量为126961实物吨，环比增加8.70%,预测下月需求量为 132001实 ...

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 14 日 ＃summary＃ 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货价量创年内新高，资金博弈情绪高涨。本周碳酸锂周度产量 21545 吨， 较上周微增 9 吨，碳酸锂周度产量见顶信号逐渐清晰，其中辉石产碳酸锂量下降 至 12904 吨，云母产碳酸锂下降至 2941 吨，盐湖产和回收产碳酸锂量均在增加， 考虑到冬季到来，预计后续盐湖产碳酸锂量也将下降，因此碳酸锂供应增量已经 微乎其微，前期高供应压力年内在放缓。需求端，本周电解 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

Core Insights - Lithium carbonate futures prices reached the lowest point since July 2023 in late June 2025, with fluctuations influenced by "anti-involution" policies and production halts in Ningde Times [1] - Supply of lithium carbonate is growing rapidly, with domestic production in September reaching 87,260 tons, a 2% month-on-month increase and a 52% year-on-year increase [1] - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, driven by the production of battery materials, with significant increases in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [3] Supply Analysis - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials showed mixed results: spodumene production increased by 5%, while lithium mica decreased by 15%, and salt lake production rose by 10% [1] - Cumulative lithium carbonate production from January to September reached 643,700 tons, a 42% year-on-year increase [1] - Despite potential disruptions in the Jiangxi Yichun mining area, new capacities from spodumene and salt lakes are expected to push October production close to 90,000 tons [1] Demand Analysis - The production of lithium iron phosphate in September was 356,800 tons, reflecting a 12.8% month-on-month and a 42% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued growth in October [3] - Ternary material production in September was 75,000 tons, showing a 2.6% month-on-month and a 31.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The overall production of power batteries and other batteries in September increased by 50% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 44% from January to September [3] Inventory and Market Trends - As of last week, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 132,700 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons, indicating an accelerated destocking process [4] - The number of registered futures warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, suggesting improved demand from downstream and traders [4] - The futures market shows signs of a potential rebound, with the main contract price breaking through the upper range of 75,000 yuan/ton, indicating a possibility of continued upward movement [4]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年8月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为17268吨 环比减少7 31% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . , 。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为93672吨 环比减少1 27% 上周三元材料 ， . , | | | | | 样本企业库存为16499吨 | 环比减少0 32% ， . 。 | | | | | 成本端来看 ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为68214元/吨 日环比增长0 79% 生产所得为 ， . , | | | 1 、 | 基本面: | | 中 ...

Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 opened at 64,300 yuan/ton and closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.71% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,014,558 lots, and the open interest was 356,161 lots, an increase of 33,301 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 600,972 lots, an increase of 9,072 lots. The total trading volume of contracts increased by 4,747 lots to 502,065, and the overall speculation degree was 0.84. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 11,204 lots, a decrease of 399 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong upward trend yesterday, opening higher, oscillating and surging, with bulls dominating during the session and stabilizing at a high level at the end of the session, finally closing up 3.71% [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 63,500 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Strategy - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures was mainly affected by news disturbances from Jiangxi's mining end and short - term warehouse receipt cancellations. July warehouse receipts need to be compulsorily cancelled, and there are few newly registered warehouse receipts currently, resulting in significant short - term delivery games, which have a greater impact on near - month contracts. The impact of the Jiangxi mining end disturbance on subsequent mining is not clear, and its short - term impact on supply and demand is relatively limited. Currently, the supply and demand are still relatively loose [2]. - In the medium to long term, there has been no substantial change in the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, and recent policies have little impact on it. The rebound height should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the impact of mining end disturbances. If the production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is affected, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate will change [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wait and see for near - month contracts, and sell and hedge on rallies for far - month contracts. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the weak and volatile trend may continue [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 65,960 yuan, down 300 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 114,538 lots, down 13,523 lots; the open interest was 244,729 lots, down 4,318 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 67,220 yuan, down 440 yuan; the trading volume was 13,046 lots, up 348 lots; the open interest was 35,957 lots, up 1,481 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,029 yuan/ton, down 343 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 773 US dollars, down 3 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,525 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts and Related Products**: The prices of various lithium salts and related products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials showed different degrees of decline or change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Sichuan Tianfu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. was established, with a registered capital of 500 million yuan. It is wholly - owned by Sichuan Natural Resources Investment Group Co., Ltd., marking the official entry of Sichuan state - owned capital into the lithium ore competition [3]. - The White House said that Trump would sign an executive order to reduce the impact of auto tariffs, and companies paying auto tariffs would no longer be subject to other tariffs such as aluminum and steel, and the paid tariffs would be compensated [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3].