| | 锂云母 | 820 | 20 | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 TT / H4 | 一工业级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1385 | 30 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 4500 | 75 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 5340 | 80 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 30950 | 100 | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 142780 | 20 | | | | | | 三元材料523 (単晶/动力型) | 114955 | 50 | | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 120255 | 0 | | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | | 电碳- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a neutral fundamental outlook. The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,220 - 64,540 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 0.44% daily, with a profit of 46 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite increased by 0.87% daily, with a loss of 6,586 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 8, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 138,347 tons, a 1.10% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.61%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.56% [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import and export data of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake) showed various changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The data of demand - related aspects such as the monthly output, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and other products also changed. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 18.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with a supply - demand gap in most months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and other aspects, showed different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects showed different trends over time [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters showed different trends over time [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends over time [54][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71]. - **Export and Inventory**: The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time [83].

碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 3.06%至 60700 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 50 元 /吨至 59900 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 50 元/吨至 58300 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒） 下跌 200 元/吨至 58570 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 4404 吨至 22375 吨。 2. 供应端，周度碳酸锂产量环比有增，6 月碳酸锂产量环比增加超 9%。需求端，周度库存周转天数均 有增加，磷酸铁锂相对增加明显，6 月两大正极材料消耗碳酸锂环比下降 10%。库存端，社会总库 存延续增加，碳酸锂总库存周转天数上升至 2 个月左右，同时，锂矿库存环比小幅增加，6 月正值 财报披露季，海外发运量亦有增加，目前整体锂矿+锂盐库存水平达到 3.5 个月左右，库存压力较 大。 3. 当前价格水平基本处在阶段性底部位置，从锂矿价格 600-610 美金来看短期仍有支撑，但是基本面 仍未有拐点出现，市场情绪仍然偏空， ...

碳酸锂周报 成本支撑弱化，价格偏弱震荡 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，5月产量环比增加1.9%至73020吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比增加350吨至15398吨，4月碳酸锂产量环比减少 9%至71652吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年4月中国锂矿石进口数量为62.3万吨，环比增加16.5%。其中从澳大利亚 进口29.8万吨，环比减少3%，自津巴布韦进口10.6万吨，环比增加82%，自尼日利亚进口8.9万吨，环比增加4%。4月碳酸锂进口量 为2.8万吨，环比增加56%，自智利进口碳酸锂2万吨，占比71%。 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/6/3 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 ...

光期研究 碳 酸 锂 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 碳酸锂：多空博弈加剧 实际仍需等待矿山信号 p 2 碳酸锂：多空博弈加剧 实际仍需等待矿山信号 总 结 1、供给：周度产量环比增加487吨至16580吨，其中锂辉石增加20吨至7519吨，锂云母环比增加370吨至4382吨，盐湖提锂环比增加67吨至2907吨， 回收提锂环比增加30吨至1772吨 2、需求：正极端，周度三元材料库存环比减少282吨至14894吨、周度磷酸铁锂库存环比减少1172吨至81378吨。电芯端，周度电芯产量环比下降 19.9%至19.23GWh，其中铁锂环比下降25.5%至12.28GWh，三元环比下降7.8%至6.95GWh。终端，据乘联会，5月1-25日，全国乘用车新能源市 场零售72.6万辆，同比去年5月同期增长31%，较上月同期增长11%，全国新能源市场零售渗透率53.5%，今年以来累计零售405万辆，同比增长 35%。 3、库存：周度库存环比下降208吨至131571吨，其中下 ...

现货和期货价格同步维持跌势，但现货价格跌幅放缓，基差整体呈小幅走弱趋势。截至5月19日，SMM 电池级碳酸锂现货均价为6.37万元／吨，工业级碳酸锂均价为6.21万元／吨，环比跌幅分别为1.39%和 1.43%。整体上，现货市场心态偏悲观，交投观望情绪较浓。 库存高位施压。上周全环节库存整体小幅增加，其中上游冶炼厂库存累积明显，下游库存略有减少，其 他环节贸易商库存稳中小幅减少。根据SMM的数据，截至5月15日，样本周度库存总计13.19万吨，冶 炼厂库存为5.65万吨，下游库存为4.14万吨，其他环节库存为3.40万吨。SMM样本4月总库存为9.62万 吨，其中样本冶炼厂库存为5.10万吨，样本下游库存为4.52万吨。 供给宽松持续。虽然有部分上游企业在4月和5月进行了减停产，但随着上游陆续复产，叠加海外矿到港 量攀升，供应压力仍然显著，最新产量数据基本维持高位。另外，自云母提锂产能复产以来，上游供应 稳步增长，各原料提锂投产节奏稳定，在一体化降本趋势下，上游难以快速出现大规模减停产。 近日碳酸锂期货盘面持续走弱，空头氛围有所强化。截至5月20日收盘，碳酸锂主力合约2507已下跌至 6.086万元／吨。一方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷， 偏弱震荡 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：单边回落，在 6.29 万元/吨附近出现空头减仓，基差走强 碳酸锂 LC2507 合约回落，期间减仓企稳，尔后加仓下跌。2507 合约收于 63020 元/吨，周环比下跌 3240 元/吨，2509 合约收于 64300 元/吨，周环比下跌 3360 元/吨，现货周环比下跌 3000 元/吨为 65250 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2505 合约）走强 240 元/吨至 2230 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价+360 元 /吨，周环比走强 60 元/吨。2507-2509 合约价差-1280 元/吨，环比+120 元/吨。 供需基本面：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷 供应：本周锂矿价格延续下跌趋势，并且下跌速度进一步加大，国内 SMM 矿价报 725 美元/吨， fastmarkets 最新成交价低至 680 美元/吨，矿端价格回落带动锂价回落。锂矿价格虽持续下跌，但澳洲 矿山企业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate remains unresolved, and the pattern of weak oscillation may continue. The expansion inertia after the Spring Festival and the current stall in demand dominate the market. The spot market has default news, and there are also some differences within the short - selling funds in the futures market. It may enter a bottom - seeking stage in the short term [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract on May 8 was 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.19% from the previous day, but it showed an oscillating downward trend in the past five days, dropping from 66,260 yuan/ton to 64,280 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis weakened significantly, reaching 2,120 yuan/ton on May 8, a decrease of 620 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The position of the main contract decreased for two consecutive days, dropping to 267,396 lots (-3.43%) on May 8, while the trading volume increased significantly by 51.75% to 309,284 lots [2]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 66,400 yuan/ton (-0.75%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate also declined. The price center of the industrial chain spot continued to move down [2]. - The prices of downstream products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of electrolyte and anode materials also weakened [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - In April, the total output of lithium carbonate decreased by 7% month - on - month but remained at a high level. The output of spodumene decreased by 16%, that of lithium mica increased by 4% month - on - month, and the output of salt lakes increased by 10% with the warming of the temperature [3]. - The price of lithium salts forced the mining end to make concessions, and severely hit the smelting demand such as toll - processing. The mining end is currently in a stage of price decline and inventory accumulation [3]. - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; the wholesale volume of manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1% [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On May 8, 2025, compared with May 7, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.19%, the basis decreased by 22.63%, the main contract position decreased by 3.43%, and the main contract trading volume increased by 51.75%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.75%, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively [6]. - From May 2 to April 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.48% [6]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On May 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 65,346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1415 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 1400 yuan/ton. Due to high inventory and weak downstream procurement, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fall [7]. - From April 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 728,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3%. The wholesale volume of manufacturers was 846,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.9% [8]. 3.5 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate inventory, lithium carbonate operating rate, and cell selling prices [9][14][17][19][21][22][24][26][28].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a supply surplus, with production levels remaining high despite some companies reducing output. This trend is expected to continue, leading to further price declines in the near future [1]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 65,980 CNY/ton and closed at 65,260 CNY/ton, marking a decrease of 1.45% from the previous settlement price [1]. - Trading volume was 103,979 lots, with open interest increasing by 11,562 lots to 256,291 lots. Total open interest across all contracts decreased by 3,011 lots to 407,535 lots [1]. - The total trading volume decreased by 17,431 lots compared to the previous day, with a speculative ratio of 0.34 [1]. Price Trends - The current spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 65,700 - 68,500 CNY/ton, down by 850 CNY/ton from the previous period. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 64,900 - 65,900 CNY/ton, down by 800 CNY/ton [1]. - There is a downward trend in ore prices, which is unlikely to support lithium carbonate prices [1]. Supply and Demand - Despite some lithium salt companies undergoing maintenance or production cuts, weekly production continues to decline slightly, but not enough to alter the oversupply situation [1]. - In May, both supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply is still anticipated to outpace demand, leading to a continued surplus in the lithium carbonate market [1]. - The downstream production is steadily increasing, but the purchasing demand has not shown significant improvement, resulting in a lackluster spot market [1]. Strategy and Outlook - The current strategy suggests selling high for hedging purposes, with no operations planned for cross-period, cross-product, or options trading [1]. - The market sentiment and fundamentals remain weak, indicating potential further declines in lithium prices [1].