来源：华尔街见闻 德意志银行指出美国争夺委内瑞拉石油，表面是为能源，实则是为美元霸权打响的一场隐秘战争。 追风交易台消息，1月8日德银策略师Mallika Sachdeva发表研报指出，美国对委内瑞拉的介入远不止表 面的能源考量那么简单。虽然控制全球最大石油储备能增强美国对全球油价的影响力，但更深层的战略 目标在于维护美元的全球储备货币地位。 Sachdeva认为石油对军事力量的不可替代性直接影响一国在冲突中的胜算，而这正是各国央行持有储备 货币的核心考量因素。其次，控制石油定价权对维持石油美元体系至关重要。 随着美国不再是全球最大石油进口国，美国可能失去通过需求端控制定价的能力，转而寻求通过供应端 主导来确保石油继续以美元计价。 如果美国成功控制整个西半球的石油供应，其储量份额将超越欧佩克，从而巩固美元在全球金融体系中 的特殊地位。 能源霸权，历史的必然逻辑 研报复盘历史指出，一个国家通过掌控全球最核心的能源，不仅能获得经济与工业优势，更能将其转化 为不可挑战的军事优势和全球金融霸权，从而确立并维持其世界主导地位。 英国凭借欧洲最大的煤炭储备，率先引爆工业革命，成为19世纪的世界工厂与霸主。美国在发现大规模 ...

英国凭借欧洲最大的煤炭储备，率先引爆工业革命，成为19世纪的世界工厂与霸主。美国在发现大规模 石油后，凭借其高能量密度和便利性，推动了汽车、航空、化工等革命，在二战后成为全球经济与工业 中心。 德意志银行指出美国争夺委内瑞拉石油，表面是为能源，实则是为美元霸权打响的一场隐秘战争。 追风交易台消息，1月8日德银策略师Mallika Sachdeva发表研报指出，美国对委内瑞拉的介入远不止表 面的能源考量那么简单。虽然控制全球最大石油储备能增强美国对全球油价的影响力，但更深层的战略 目标在于维护美元的全球储备货币地位。 Sachdeva认为石油对军事力量的不可替代性直接影响一国在冲突中的胜算，而这正是各国央行持有储 备货币的核心考量因素。其次，控制石油定价权对维持石油美元体系至关重要。 随着美国不再是全球最大石油进口国，美国可能失去通过需求端控制定价的能力，转而寻求通过供应端 主导来确保石油继续以美元计价。 如果美国成功控制整个西半球的石油供应，其储量份额将超越欧佩克，从而巩固美元在全球金融体系中 的特殊地位。 能源霸权，历史的必然逻辑 研报复盘历史指出，一个国家通过掌控全球最核心的能源，不仅能获得经济与工业优势 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that the continuous technological innovation and strong stock market performance in a specific region are not solely due to the capabilities of local companies, but rather due to a systemic-level moat that supports these advancements [1] - The underlying factors include dominance in finance, technology, and military, which create a synergistic effect that attracts talent, fosters innovation, and develops the economy, thereby reinforcing its global leadership position [4] Group 2 - This region possesses a unique moat that allows it to continuously attract top global talent, as its talent pool is not limited to the local population but encompasses nearly 8 billion people worldwide, selecting the "smartest individuals" globally [5] - The influx of intelligent individuals is driven by the presence of top universities, a robust research system, a comprehensive entrepreneurial ecosystem, ample venture capital, mature equity incentive systems, high tolerance for failure, and a deep capital market, enabling the conversion of intelligence into tangible results and rapid capitalization [5]

Group 1 - The core issue of US-China relations revolves around the struggle for economic dominance, with the US seeking to maintain its hegemony while China aims for greater autonomy and technological advancement [2][4] - The trade war initiated by the US in 2018, characterized by tariffs on Chinese goods, reflects a strategic competition where the US perceives China's economic success as a threat to its own interests [4][5] - The US has targeted Chinese tech companies like Huawei and ZTE, imposing restrictions on semiconductor access, indicating a fear of losing technological supremacy to China [5][7] Group 2 - The US has formed alliances, such as the AUKUS agreement, to counter China's influence, particularly in the South China Sea, highlighting the military dimension of the rivalry [7][8] - Human rights issues have been used by the US as a pretext to impose sanctions on China, which China argues is a cover for economic dominance [8][10] - China's long-term strategy involves leveraging the US dollar system for technological acquisition while simultaneously building self-sufficiency in key industries, indicating a dual approach to economic development [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "dollar hegemony" and how the United States has maintained its dominance in the global economy through strategic monetary policies and military power over the past 80 years [1][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - After World War II, the U.S. emerged as the largest economic power, establishing a system where the dollar was pegged to gold, making it the center of global currency [3][5]. - In 1971, President Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold, transforming it into a fiat currency, yet the demand for dollars continued to grow due to strategic agreements [3][5]. Group 2: Oil Dollar System - The U.S. established a secret agreement with Middle Eastern oil producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, to sell oil exclusively in dollars, creating the "petrodollar" system [5][10]. - This system ensured that countries needed to acquire dollars to purchase oil, thereby increasing global demand for the currency [5][10]. Group 3: Military and Financial Power - The U.S. maintains unparalleled military strength, with numerous military bases worldwide, which reinforces the use of the dollar in international transactions [7][10]. - The influence over the SWIFT financial system allows the U.S. to impose sanctions and restrict access to global trade for non-compliant countries, further solidifying the dollar's dominance [7][10]. Group 4: Path Dependency - The long-standing use of the dollar in international trade and finance has created a "path dependency," making it inconvenient for countries to switch to alternative currencies [7][10]. - Central banks and corporations hold significant dollar reserves, which perpetuates the dollar's status as the primary currency for global transactions [7][10]. Group 5: Economic Implications - The U.S. can print dollars to acquire goods and services globally, effectively using "paper" to obtain real wealth from other nations [10]. - However, the U.S. must balance the amount of money printed to avoid rapid devaluation and global inflation, maintaining its economic credibility [10].

Group 1 - Brazilian President Lula's strong response to the U.S. tariffs, particularly the 50% tariff on copper imports, highlights the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Brazil as part of a broader challenge to U.S. hegemony [1] - China's immediate reaction to the U.S. tariffs indicates a united front among BRICS nations, emphasizing the collective resistance against U.S. pressure [1][2] - The U.S. tariffs are seen as an attempt to reshape its domestic copper industry, but this strategy may face significant opposition from countries like China, Russia, and Brazil [1] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its stance against the broadening of national security concepts and emphasized that trade wars yield no winners, signaling a potential strong counteraction to U.S. tariff policies [2] - In the context of Southeast Asia, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi positioned China as a reliable partner for ASEAN countries, proposing cooperation and stability amidst U.S. actions [4] - Wang Yi's commitment to sign the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty underscores China's dedication to regional peace and serves as a challenge to U.S. nuclear policies [4] Group 3 - The collective response from countries like Brazil and China against U.S. tariffs reflects a growing sentiment among nations facing U.S. pressure, suggesting a potential shift in global alliances [5]