一、关税延期背后的谈判交锋 据看看新闻报道，7月31日，商务部官宣中美关税休战协议再延90天，为全球最大两个经济体的经贸关 系注入短期稳定。这场在瑞典斯德哥尔摩落幕的第三轮谈判，表面是关税延期的程序性推进，实则暗藏 美方精心设计的三大谈判陷阱，将中美博弈推向更复杂的维度。 美国海关查验（资料图） 二、美方三大谈判陷阱解析 （一）产业政策干预：以"产能过剩"施压制造业转型 美方在谈判中重提"中国产能过剩威胁论"，要求中方主动限制钢铁、光伏等产业的产能扩张，为美国制 造业回流腾出市场空间。其核心逻辑是将美国制造业空心化归咎于中国商品的"低价倾销"，试图通过关 税工具迫使中国接受产业发展"自我设限"。 数据显示，2025年上半年中国对美出口机电产品同比增长12%，而美国同类产品在本土市场占有率已跌 破30%。美方的真实意图是借助关税谈判，系统性打压中国高端制造崛起，维持其在全球产业链上游的 垄断地位。这种将经贸问题政治化的做法，直接触及中国产业升级的核心利益。 2024年中国从俄罗斯进口原油占比达18%，伊朗原油进口量较2023年增长25%，低价稳定的能源供应对 保障工业体系运转至关重要。美方若实施所谓"500%次 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. crude oil exports to China, marking the longest period of zero purchases since 2018, which poses a survival threat to U.S. shale oil producers [1] - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen below $70 per barrel due to dual pressures, with OPEC considering increasing production, further squeezing market space [1] - The crisis is extending from oil fields to the job market, as refineries are forced to cut production and the throughput at Gulf Coast ports is shrinking [1] Group 2 - China is diversifying its energy sources, securing oil from Russia, Canada, and the Middle East, while exploring de-dollarization in oil transactions with Iran, thereby reducing U.S. influence over the global energy market [3] - The U.S. government has responded to the situation by easing restrictions in key sectors, including allowing General Electric to resume supplying engines to Chinese companies, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [3][5] - The trade standoff reflects a clash of international order perspectives, with China's actions demonstrating a break from zero-sum thinking in resource management [6] Group 3 - The 90-day tariff suspension period poses a critical challenge for the U.S. shale oil industry, as failure to negotiate energy and technology exchanges could trigger systemic crises due to accumulated debts [8] - The movement of eight ethane ships to China symbolizes a potential breakthrough in trade relations, but a genuine resolution requires moving beyond resource competition to mutual benefit [8]