1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. The current pattern of strong meal and weak oil in the beans and oils market persists [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The consensus on expanding agricultural product imports reached in the Sino - US leaders' meeting has boosted short - term sentiment. However, the market is still in a situation of "strong supply and weak demand". Only when trade policy breakthroughs resonate with seasonal demand recovery can the market break free from this situation. The futures price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly but faces pressure at the upper limit of the range [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The main pressure on the palm oil market comes from the expected 10% year - on - year increase in Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to about 56 - 57 million tons, and weak exports of Malaysian palm oil. The optimistic expectations from Sino - US negotiations cannot offset the industrial chain pressure. The futures price of palm oil has fallen below the lower limit of the previous oscillating range and will continue to be weak [7] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Group 1 - The core issue is the shift in China's soybean imports from the US to Brazil, leading to increased prices for Brazilian soybeans, which are now $1 more expensive than US soybeans and $2.8 more than those in Chicago [3][6] - China's response to the price increase has been to halt orders for Brazilian soybeans after December, citing the high costs as the primary reason without any political motivations [5][6] - The financial implications for China are significant, with estimates indicating a loss of over 200 yuan for each ton of Brazilian soybeans purchased, making the trade unsustainable [8] Group 2 - Brazil's soybean farmers have increased planting in anticipation of high demand from China, with projections indicating record production levels for 2024 and 2025 [10] - Without Chinese orders, Brazilian farmers may face a situation similar to US farmers, leading to potential overproduction and price drops due to lack of demand [10][12] - The US is positioned to benefit from China's decision to stop buying Brazilian soybeans, as they may seek to purchase US soybeans instead, especially given the current trade tensions [12][19] Group 3 - China's agricultural strategy is constrained by the need to prioritize staple crops like rice and wheat, limiting the area available for soybean cultivation [14][16] - The importation of soybeans is seen as a necessity for China, allowing for better price control and the establishment of favorable trade relations with multiple countries [16] - Brazil's soybean export volume has reached 100 million tons by October, with 79.9% of that being orders from China, highlighting the importance of the Chinese market for Brazilian farmers [17] Group 4 - Recent developments indicate that China and the US are engaged in trade negotiations, with a significant chance of reaching an agreement that could lower tariffs and facilitate soybean trade [19][21] - The ongoing negotiations reflect the broader geopolitical dynamics, where China aims to secure its position in international trade and establish rule-making authority [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the current situation in the global oilseeds and oils market, including export, production, and import data, as well as policy changes and climate - related information [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Different Aspects 1. U.S. Soybean Data - As of the week ending September 18, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the estimated range. The previous week's volume was 821,809 tons (revised). The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop year is 1,569,77 tons, compared to 1,246,429 tons in the same period last year [1] - As of the week ending September 21, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The leaf - falling rate was 61% [1] 2. Argentina's Policy - Argentina's government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal to boost exports and increase dollar supply. The policy will be effective from Tuesday until October 31 or until the declared export value reaches $7 billion. The soybean export tax will drop from 26% to zero, soybean oil and meal from 24.5% to zero, and corn from 9.5% to zero [1] 3. Brazil's Soybean Export - Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of September, with an average daily export volume of 314,628.40 tons, an 8.20% increase compared to the same period last year [1] 4. Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - Different institutions reported different trends in Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20. ITS showed an 8.7% increase, AmSpec an 8.3% increase, and SGS a 16.1% decrease compared to the previous month. The production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 7.89% compared to the previous period [1] 5. China's Import Data - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 336,550.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.32% and a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. The main import sources were Indonesia and Malaysia [1] - China's rapeseed imports in August were 246,639.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.13% but a year - on - year decrease of 58.52%. The main source was Canada [1] - China's rapeseed meal imports in August were 213,385.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.56% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The main sources were India and the UAE [1] - China's rapeseed oil imports in August were 137,572.47 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% and a year - on - year increase of 18.68%. The main sources were Russia and the UAE [1] 6. Indonesia's Policy Consideration - Indonesia is considering introducing B45 as a transitional step before implementing B50 due to potential technical and economic obstacles that may delay the full implementation of B50 until after 2026 [1] 7. Price and Spread Data - The report also includes data on import crushing margins, import profits, spot prices, protein meal basis, oil basis, regional price spreads, and seasonal spreads for various oilseeds and oils products [2][4][6][8]

Market Overview - The domestic grain market experienced a significant decline this week, with early indica rice futures remaining unchanged at 2500.00 CNY/ton as of the report [1] U.S. Corn Export Data - According to the USDA's export inspection report, the corn export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 1,407,050 tons, exceeding the high end of expectations, marking a 5% increase from the previous week and a 46% year-on-year increase [1] EU Corn Import Statistics - The European Commission reported that the corn import volume for the 2025/26 season reached 1.88 million tons as of August 31, compared to 3.76 million tons during the same period last year [1] U.S. Corn Crop Condition - The USDA's crop report indicated that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn was 69% as of August 31, down from 71% the previous week and up from 65% the same time last year, aligning with market expectations [1] Brazil Corn Harvest Update - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the second corn harvest completion rate was 100% as of August 30, up from 94.8% the previous week and compared to 97.0% last year, with a five-year average of 93.2% [1]

1. Overnight Market Information - The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending July 10, 2025 was 147,045 tons, lower than the market forecast of 200,000 - 500,000 tons and the revised figure of 399,600 tons in the previous week [1] - As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, with a flowering rate of 47% and a pod - setting rate of 15% [1] - Brazil exported 4,331,243.97 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of July 2025, with an average daily export volume 1.61% lower than that in July last year [1] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 were 4,937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, while the imports of edible vegetable oil decreased by 8.6% [1] - India's palm oil imports in June 2025 jumped 60% to 955,683 tons, reaching an 11 - month high, and the domestic vegetable oil inventory increased to 156.8 million tons as of July 1 [1] 2. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 8 - 14, 2025 are presented in a table [9] 3. Other Information - There are sections about the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, protein meal basis, oil basis, oil futures price spread, and oil import profit, but no specific content is provided [3][10][12][15]

中国5月大豆进口1,391.8万吨；1-5月累计大豆进口3,710.8万吨，同比降0.7%。 ...