Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term, with coking coal continuing its downward structure but having obvious bottom support [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the previous day's daytime session, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1,116.5 yuan/ton, a 3.71% decline compared to the daytime opening. The main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1,668.0, a 2.97% decline compared to the daytime opening. It closed with a doji star in the previous night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, the steel industry achieved a total profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 299.2%. The coal mining and washing industry achieved a total profit of 352 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.8% [1] - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods, with the automobile tariff gradually dropping from 110% to 10%. The EU will cancel or reduce tariffs on 99.5% of goods imported from India within 7 years [1] - On January 27, 2026, the auction of Zhongmei Huali Hesheng coking coal (A12 S0.5 V24 G90) in Jinzhong, Shanxi had a starting price of 1,350 yuan/ton and a quantity of 100 tons, and all were sold at 1,378 yuan/ton. In the previous period (January 17, 2026), the starting price was 1,350 yuan/ton, the quantity was 200 tons, and all were sold at 1,369 - 1,391 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly the previous day. On the spot side, the coking coal auction prices were poor, showing a stable - to - decreasing trend. Fundamentally, the winter - storage logic has weakened marginally, the weak fundamentals are apparent, and the weakening speculative sentiment led to an increase in positions and a price decline on the futures market. In the short - term, coking coal will continue its downward structure, but the bottom support is obvious. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term [1] Trading Strategy - The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between the bottom support of 1,100 and the upper limit of 1,170 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel market may trade the winter storage logic in advance and experience a rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Monday, the night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a mixed trend, with rebar and hot - rolled coil rising and falling respectively at night [1] Important News - Recently, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi released the list of key construction projects in 2026, including 63 projects related to the steel industry [1] - In December 2025, a total of 482 projects started across the country, with a total investment of approximately 534.092 billion yuan; the total investment in 2025 was approximately 27.52 trillion yuan [1] - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2026, efforts will be focused on four aspects: "stability", "expansion", "innovation", and "increase" to maintain the stable growth of the industrial economy [1] - Some cities in Hebei and Liaocheng launched heavy - pollution weather emergency responses [1] Market Logic - On Monday, steel prices rose in some areas. The supply of the five major steel products this period was 818,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,380 tons. Among them, the production and inventory of rebar increased, the production of hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory decreased. Overall, steel supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory increased [1] Trading Strategy - The market may trade the winter storage logic in advance and experience a rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From January 5 - 9, 2026, in the domestic futures market, 60 commodity futures varieties rose, 1 remained flat, and 21 declined. In the stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all rose, while in the treasury bond futures, 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds all fell [1]. - Each sector in the futures market showed different trends. The agricultural products sector had mixed performances; the non - ferrous and precious metals sector had significant short - term fluctuations; the black sector was generally volatile; the energy and chemical sector had various situations such as strong expectations but weak reality for some products; and the financial futures sector had the stock index in an upward trend and the treasury bond futures showing a short - term shock [6][11][13][15][18]. Summary by Catalog 1. Agricultural Products Futures - **Vegetable Oils**: This week, the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil rose by 1.68% and 1.14% respectively, while the main contract of rapeseed oil fell by 0.50%. The vegetable oil sector showed a slightly differentiated upward trend due to various factors such as holiday备货, import policies, and international oil price fluctuations [6]. - **Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The main contract of soybean meal rose 1.35%, and that of rapeseed meal fell 1.14%. The double - meal showed a differentiated trend, with soybean meal being stronger and rapeseed meal weaker due to customs policies and market expectations [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar showed a strong consolidation. The market is mainly concerned about the sugar production in China, India, and Thailand. With the start of the Spring Festival stocking, there is still pressure on sugar supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be a low - level range shock [7]. - **Red Dates**: The price of red dates slightly increased. During the Spring Festival stocking season, the abundant supply suppresses the price. The short - term trend is expected to be a shock, and the medium - to - long - term trend may decline [7]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton's upward channel was blocked after breaking through 15,000. Due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area and the early shutdown plan of textile enterprises, the short - term upward momentum may weaken, and the market is in a shock adjustment state [8]. - **Apples**: The apple market in different production areas showed a differentiated trend. The overall de - stocking speed is lower than last year, and the market is mainly concerned about the Spring Festival stocking demand [8][9]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The weak demand suppresses the price increase, while the low inventory limits the decline. The main contract is expected to maintain a low - level shock [10]. 2. Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Shanghai gold had a small increase with horizontal fluctuations, and Shanghai silver had a large increase followed by a large decline. Due to factors such as margin adjustments, index weight reset, and geopolitical risks, the short - term fluctuations of precious metals intensified [11]. 3. Black Sector - **Overall Situation**: The black sector showed an overall fluctuating trend, with iron ore being stronger than other varieties [13]. - **Coking Coal and Steel**: Coking coal led the rise in the first half of the week, and rebar hit a new high and then corrected. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, the inventory increased seasonally, and the consumption decreased in the off - season. The rebound space depends on the winter storage intensity [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore hit a new high and then corrected. The daily average pig iron output increased, and the supply is expected to increase. There is a risk of price correction after the end of market replenishment [13]. - **Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The double - coking showed a significant rebound and then a high - level correction. The fundamentals have no major contradictions, and the short - term is affected by supply - side rumors and winter storage expectations [14]. - **Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: The double - silicon first rose and then fell. After the news was falsified, it returned to the fundamentals. The short - term bottom support is strong due to high - level production and winter storage expectations [14]. 4. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol rose 2.6%. It still faces the situation of strong expectations but weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and a bullish approach is recommended [15]. - **Urea**: Urea rose 1.6%. It showed a strong shock due to reserve demand and peak - season expectations. The medium - term price center may move up, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: Bottle chips rose 0.4%. The supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival. The price may be suppressed, and attention should be paid to light - position buying on dips [16]. - **Rubber Series**: - **Natural Rubber**: It first rose and then fell, with the price center moving up. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover. The inventory increased this week, and it may enter a consolidation state next week [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR main contract continued to strengthen. The cost support is significant, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The demand is expected to rebound slightly. There is a risk of correction, and long positions should be held with caution [17]. 5. Financial Futures Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After the New Year's Day, funds flowed into the stock market, and the growth - style indexes were strong. The stock index is in a spring offensive, and long positions are recommended to be held [18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a bottom - hunting rebound. The short - term may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market [18].