Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/08/27 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Trump threatened to impose tariffs of approximately 200% on China. Futures Prices: On August 26, equity indices fell, while CGB futures rose. Most commodity fut ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 二手稳增长，新房仍承压 证券研究报告 生产：工业生产运行平稳，PTA 开工率回落 高频跟踪周报 20250823 核心关注点：地产新房成交环比回暖但同比仍低于季节性，二手房成交量 实现同比增长，新房二手房分化；汽车消费回暖，电影票房下降；生产领 域工业运行平稳，基建开工维持韧性；投资方面螺纹钢消费量价分化，水 泥价格低位回升；商品期货多数下跌，焦煤、碳酸锂、玻璃下跌幅度较大。 从 2024 年 9 月政治局会议提出"止跌回稳"，到今年 6 月国常会强调"更 大力度"，再到 8 月 18 日，国务院全体会议要求"采取有力措施"，仍显 示出中央对楼市持续承压的高度关注。会议提出"结合城市更新"、"推进 城中村和危旧房改造"等表述，一定程度指明了房地产领域的投资新方向 和模式转型，注重对现有存量的优化提升。 往后展望，预计地产政策工具箱或进一步打开，但大幅刺激的概率或不高， 而是通过政策力量让市场软着陆，实现一个相对平稳、不再大幅下行的新 平衡。相关措施如加快城中村改造、加大地产收储、核心城市限购进一步 松绑、下调住房贷款利率、降低首付比例、减免换购住房的个人所得税等。 需求：新房成交环 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.22 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 金融期货方面：流动性充裕，看涨情绪仍存，沪深300指数IF2509前多继续持有。 商品期货方面：烧碱走势偏强，多晶硅宜采用期权策略。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 冲高回落，量能仍有上行空间 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四A股冲高回落，小盘股走势偏弱，沪深两市成交额维持在 | | | | | | 2.46（前值2.45）万亿元。从行业来看，综合金融、农林牧渔行业 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 涨幅居前，机械、电力设备和新能源板块显著回调。股指期货走势 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 分化，IF、IH收涨，IC、IM收跌，且基差贴水再度走阔。 | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | 股指 | 昨日上证指数冲击3800点失败后回调，市场谨慎情绪有所提 | 看涨 | | | | | | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 升，资金量能维持 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250811 - 20250815)", analyzing the performance of global and domestic major asset classes during the week from August 11th to August 15th, 2025, and providing price outlooks [1][3][6] Global Major Asset Performance Global Stock Market - Global major stock markets generally rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains and emerging markets outperforming developed markets. The VIX index oscillated at a low level weekly [8] - MSCI Asia - Pacific had a weekly increase of 2.44%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.65%. In the Americas, IPSA Chile 40 had a weekly increase of 2.57% [11][12] Global Bond Market - Fed officials' statements had significant differences. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6BP to 4.33% weekly, and the bond market oscillated. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [12] - The global bond index had a weekly increase of 0.01%, the global government bond index decreased by 0.05%, and the global credit bond index increased by 0.21% [13] Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index continued to decline weekly, with a weekly drop of 0.43%. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate oscillated [14] Global Commodity Market - International precious metal prices declined. Russian oil sanctions expectations cooled, and international oil prices oscillated. Non - ferrous metals and agricultural products had mixed price movements [19] Domestic Major Asset Performance Domestic Stock Market - A - share major broad - based indices generally rose weekly, with the average daily trading volume of the two markets increasing compared to the previous week. The growth style was more prominent. Communication and comprehensive finance led in gains, while banks and steel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index had a weekly increase of 1.70% [21] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market declined weekly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [24] Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oilseeds led in gains, while precious metals underperformed. The Nanhua Commodity Index had a weekly increase of 0.52% [25][26] Major Asset Price Outlook - The market is short - term focused on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. Attention should be paid to whether Fed Chairman Powell's speech releases signals related to monetary policy [3][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - China's financial data in July showed steady growth, and the A-share market strengthened with increased trading volume. The economy in July still had resilience, with positive policies and various economic indicators showing certain trends. For example, China's July exports increased, and the narrowing M2 - M1 gap indicated improved capital circulation efficiency. In the US, the July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends [2]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs." The US has set new tariff standards, and the current tariff situation may affect goods with high external demand. Concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, and the demand for Japanese government bond auctions has decreased [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to the domestic supply - side, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the follow - up trends of "anti - involution" in the market are worthy of attention [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: The official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, the new order index dropped to 49.4, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The US's July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends. On August 13, the A - share market strengthened, and trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2]. Tariff and Interest Rate - The US has set new "reciprocal tariff" standards, and the current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, which may affect external - demand - sensitive goods. After the July interest rate meeting, the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is uncertain, and concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, leading to a decrease in the demand for Japanese government bond auctions [3]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, the energy sector's medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose (OPEC + plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August), and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations. After the start of the "anti - involution" market in July, major varieties have retreated to some extent, and future trends will depend on the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in April and the implementation of "anti - involution" [4]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Key News - China's financial data from January to July: RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), M0 was 13.28 trillion yuan (up 11.8% year - on - year), and the net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. The social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan [6]. - Other news: The IEA predicts that the global oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Trump will meet with Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The A - share market strengthened on August 13, and the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2][4][6].

8月11日，隔夜、1个月、1年期Shibor分别上涨0.06、0.14、0.02个基点，报收于1.3150%、1.5270%、 1.6380%。1周、2周、3个月、9个月Shibor分别下跌0.36、1.39、0.54、0.09个基点，报收于1.4320%、 1.4550%、1.5490%、1.6280%。6个月Shibor保持1.6100%未变。 公开市场操作方面，上周央行常规逆回购操作11267亿元，到期16632亿元，合计净回笼货币5365亿元。 7月份之后，央行常规逆回购操作规模缩小，开始净回笼。8月上旬央行进行了7000亿元的买断式逆回购 操作，规模不大，国内货币市场流动性充足。近期A股交投活跃度显著增加，资金有从债券基金赎回， 向股权基金切换的态势。政策基调方面，中共中央政治局会议定调下半年经济工作，宏观政策要持续发 力、适时加力，货币政策保持适度宽松。低利率向实体主体继续传导。在"反内卷"政策推动下，部分商 品期货价格率先上涨，带动现货价格回升。7月消费数据有所好转。外部方面，美国对全球主要国家的 税率大致确定，一定程度上会降低国际贸易需求，对国内出口会形成长期压力。下半年国内经济增长压 力加大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The futures market plays a crucial role in price discovery and risk management, and futures companies have significant potential to contribute to the financial sector and the real economy, creating tangible benefits for society [1] Group 1: Financial Services for Technology Enterprises - Providing tailored financial solutions for technology companies is essential, particularly in addressing challenges during the R&D, industrialization, and scaling phases [2] - Futures companies can offer unique derivative solutions to help technology firms manage risks associated with raw material price volatility and optimize capital structure [2][3] - Specific risk management services, such as customized "circuit breaker" plans, have been developed to assist companies in navigating market fluctuations [3] Group 2: Innovative Financial Models for Agriculture - The company is focusing on the "insurance + futures + N" model to enhance financial services in agriculture, particularly in rural areas [4] - Projects in Fujian have provided price guarantees for over 40,000 tons of agricultural products, benefiting local farmers [4] - Future plans include expanding services from price insurance to income insurance and creating a multi-dimensional support system involving government and financial institutions [5] Group 3: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises - The company aims to strengthen the stability and sustainability of small and medium enterprises through customized risk management solutions [6] - Specific strategies include tailored hedging plans for local industries and leveraging local agricultural cooperatives to mitigate market volatility [6] - The company is also developing services for the energy and chemical sectors, focusing on dynamic inventory adjustments and supply chain financial services [6] Group 4: Research and Development for Industry Upgrades - The company is enhancing research services to support local enterprises in establishing futures delivery warehouses and optimizing delivery layouts in Fujian [7] - By focusing on key sectors such as energy, metals, and new energy, the company aims to facilitate the transformation and upgrading of local industry clusters [7] - The commitment to professional services is seen as a way to empower the real economy through financial support [7]

Core Viewpoint - The futures market plays a crucial role in price discovery and risk management, and futures companies can significantly contribute to the financial sector and the real economy by enhancing service quality and addressing the challenges faced by technology enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Service to Technology Enterprises - Futures companies can provide tailored derivative solutions to technology enterprises, helping them manage risks associated with raw material price volatility during the R&D phase [2]. - In the industrialization phase, companies can optimize inventory management and asset utilization through a "futures + spot" supply chain finance model, improving capital turnover efficiency [2][3]. - Specific risk management services have been designed for companies, such as a "circuit breaker cumulative purchase/sale" scheme to allow flexibility in contract termination during market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 2: Innovation in Agricultural Finance - The company is focusing on the "insurance + futures + N" model to enhance financial services in agriculture, integrating various resources to support farmers and agricultural enterprises [3][4]. - Projects in Fujian have provided price protection for over 40,000 tons of agricultural products, benefiting local farmers and allowing them to stabilize their income despite price fluctuations [3][4]. - Future plans include expanding services from price insurance to income insurance and creating a multi-dimensional support system involving government, banks, and insurance companies [3][4]. Group 3: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises - The company aims to enhance the stability and sustainability of small and medium enterprises by offering customized risk management solutions tailored to local industry characteristics [4][5]. - Specific products include cumulative purchase options for textile and food processing industries, and risk management solutions for local agricultural cooperatives [5]. - The company plans to establish a service system combining over-the-counter derivatives, spot trading, and supply chain finance for various industrial clusters [5][6]. Group 4: Research and Development Support - The company is committed to supporting the transformation and upgrading of industries in Fujian by building a comprehensive "research-service-transformation" system [5][6]. - Focus areas include energy and chemical industries, black and non-ferrous metals, and new energy sectors, with efforts to assist local enterprises in establishing futures delivery warehouses and optimizing delivery layouts [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The anti-involution theme has cooled down from its initial fervor, with volatility decreasing. The market outlook is short-term bearish and long-term bullish. The anti-involution theme is a long-term concept, and it's unlikely for prices to return to the levels of mid-June. A 5% increase in price can be considered as a bottom-line support. The recent market adjustment is seen as a technical one driven by delivery and exchange position limits [3][4]. - In terms of specific sectors and varieties, the feed and black sectors are bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The anti-involution theme has gradually calmed down after emotional release and exchange position limits. Near-month contracts face delivery pressure, and high-inventory varieties like glass and soda ash still have hedging needs. The 09 contract's position transfer affects the 2601 contract's price [4]. - The adjustment in the past week was mainly due to two factors: the delivery logic of high-inventory varieties and the adjustment caused by capital position transfer under exchange position limits. Minor market rumors may cause disturbances but won't affect the long-term anti-involution trend [3][5]. 2. Variety Adjustment - Different varieties have different adjustment amplitudes, which are related to their current inventory levels. For example, high-inventory glass and soda ash have seen the 2509 contract dragging down far-month contracts, with the 9-1 spread declining and far-month contracts showing resistive declines [5]. 3. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow is 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals outflow 2.429 billion yuan, non-ferrous metals 5.912 billion yuan, black metals 2.681 billion yuan, energy 0.051 billion yuan, chemicals 2.061 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.52 billion yuan, and soft commodities 1.663 billion yuan. The feed and oil sector has an inflow of 0.646 billion yuan [8]. - **Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: Provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non-ferrous varieties [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Presents price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various energy and chemical varieties [10]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: Offers price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various agricultural products [11].

Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In July, A-shares approached 3600 points, with the 10-year government bond yield rising and commodities experiencing fluctuations [1][8] - The A-share market saw broad-based index gains, with growth and consumption sectors leading the way [11][12] - The bond market experienced an upward trend in yields, breaking the inversion between deposit rates and government bond yields [24][26] - Commodity markets showed divergence, with the South China Industrial Products Index rising and then retreating, while domestic futures markets experienced significant volatility [28][30] - Global equity indices generally rose, with the Nasdaq leading among US indices and European stocks also showing strong performance [40][42] Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The economic fundamentals in June showed divergence, indicating resilience, with manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory [2][12] - Macro liquidity indicators suggested a warming trend, with social financing showing signs of recovery [2][12] - Micro-level funding saw a rebound in northbound capital and an increase in margin trading balances, indicating renewed market activity [2][12] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.75% by the end of July, marking a 5.7 basis point increase for the month [24][26] - The inversion between deposit rates and the 10-year government bond yield was broken, indicating a shift in market expectations [24][26] Group 4: Commodity Market Analysis - The South China Industrial Products Index reached a peak of 3824 points before retreating, with significant fluctuations in domestic commodity futures [28][30] - Major commodities like iron ore and Brent crude oil saw notable gains, while LME copper experienced a significant decline [28][30] Group 5: Global Equity Performance - The global equity market saw most indices rise, with the Nasdaq leading the US markets and the FTSE 100 index leading in Europe [40][42] - The VIX index remained below 20, indicating a relatively stable market environment [40][42]