China Futures Monthly Report 中国期货运行月报 2026/3/3 More English Reports on 【CITIC Futures Insights】 https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights Gui Chenxi 桂晨曦 CFA PhD Qualification No. F3023159 从业资格号 Investment consulting No. Z0013632 投资咨询号 Important Notice: This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to the atten ...

周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2026 年第 9 周 报告日期： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 ★商品期货 根据周度期货技术指标信号分析，贵金属板块黄金看跌，白 银震荡；有色板块锌、镍、工业硅、铝合金看涨，多晶硅看 跌，其余震荡；黑色及航运板块锰硅、硅铁、线材看涨，欧 线集运震荡；能源板块整体看涨；化工板块丙烯、玻璃、纯 碱看涨，纸浆、短纤看跌，其余震荡；农产品板块豆油、白 糖、原木、豆粕、油菜籽、菜籽油、玉米、鸡蛋看涨，其余 震荡。具体品种方面，沪铜主力回踩 MA10 获支撑，价格重 心持稳，MACD 金叉延续但成交量未放量，预计短期易涨难 跌，关注 10 万至 10.3 万元/吨逢低建仓机会，需严控仓位。 螺纹钢主力日线修复下跌压力，但均线未转多头，预期下周 震荡修复，下方支撑 3000 至 3040 元/吨。PTA 主力周线受 MA250 压制，日线延续 5000 至 5400 元/吨区间震荡，波动率 下降，短期缺乏趋势信号。玉米主力周线站稳 MA120，中期 看涨但上涨动能减弱，日线仍有上行空间但冲高回落风险加 大，上方阻力 2380 至 2420 元/吨，支撑 2220 至 2250 元/ ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will continue its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations on February 25, with an amount to be determined based on market demand, as 300 billion MLF is set to mature on the same day [1] - Germany's GDP revision for Q4 2025 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, unchanged from the initial estimate, and an annual growth rate of 0.6%, up from the previous value of 0.3% [2] - The Eurozone's January CPI final value is anticipated to be 1.7%, down from the previous value of 1.9%, while the core CPI is expected to be 2.2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.3% [3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index for February is projected to be 99.8, an increase from the previous value of 99.4, while the industrial sentiment index is expected to improve to -6.3 from -6.8 [5] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 are expected to rise slightly to 216,000 from the previous 206,000, which may impact commodity futures prices [6] - The U.S. PPI for January is forecasted to show a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, down from 3.0%, with core PPI expected at 2.9%, down from 3.3% [7] - The Chicago PMI for February is anticipated to be 52.5, a decrease from the previous value of 54 [8] Group 3 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin on February 28, which is expected to influence related commodity futures prices [10] - OPEC+ will hold a monthly meeting on March 1 to discuss oil production policies, focusing on whether to resume production increases starting in April, which could affect oil and related commodity futures prices [10]

2月24日，A股和国内期货市场迎来马年春节后首个交易日。A股市场开门"发红包"。当日，上证指数收 涨0.87%，报4117.41点，深证成指涨逾1%，创业板指涨0.99%，北证50微涨0.37%，全天市场成交额突 破2万亿元，超4000只个股上涨，111只个股涨停。 "不过，地缘政治风险的影响往往是短暂的，油价长期走势还是要回归基本面。国际能源署最新月报显 示，2025年全球原油库存累积速度为2020年以来最快，增加4.77亿桶，OECD国家库存4年来首次超过5 年均值。OPEC+减产解除、非OPEC国家供应强劲增长及能源转型持续推进，共同影响原油的供需格 局。因此，油价可能是阶段性反弹，持续性存疑。"程小勇说。 节后首日，黑色板块表现偏弱。对此，中辉期货黑色负责人陈为昌认为，从供需来看，钢材需求仍然偏 弱，表观消费低于去年同期水平，但铁水产量为农历同期最高，供需整体偏宽松。原料端，铁矿石春节 假期期间发运量回升，为同期最高水平。焦煤节后开始复产，成本端存在下行驱动。黑色板块整体仍受 制于弱现实的压制。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 关于贵金属板块大涨的原因，金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示，春节假期期间，美国关税 ...

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.27% to 4065.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.11% to 13906.73 points [8][10] - The convertible bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.05% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 0.36% [15][16] - The bond market saw most yields rise, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 2.08 basis points, while the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields decreased [18][19] Group 2 - The commodity futures market weakened overall, with significant declines in silver prices, which dropped by 9.06%, while gold prices increased by 1.65% [9][28] - The market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with CBOT soybeans rising by 4.75% and corn increasing by 0.58% [9][10] - The overall commodity index experienced a decline of 4.49%, with precious metals leading the drop at 17.11% [27][30]

昆山东威科技股份有限公司于2026年2月2日召开董事会会议，审议通过公司及子公司开展商品期货、期 权套期保值业务的议案。交易品种限于生产经营相关的原材料，包括铜、不锈钢、铂、金、铝、镍、石 油等境内交易所挂牌品种。预计任意时点保证金及权利金上限为2500万元，最高合约价值不超过25000 万元，资金来源为自有资金，交易期限为2026年2月3日至2027年2月2日。公司强调不以投机或套利为目 的，已制定相关管理制度并采取多项风控措施。该事项无需提交股东大会审议。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 截至2026年2月6日收盘，东威科技（688700）报收于39.45元，较上周的41.65元下跌5.28%。本周，东 威科技2月4日盘中最高价报42.92元。2月6日盘中最低价报38.55元。东威科技当前最新总市值117.72亿 元，在专用设备板块市值排名31/177，在两市A股市值排名1758/5186。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总 公司公告汇总：东威科技拟开展商品期货、期权套期保值业务，保证金及权利金上限为2500万 元。 公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, industrial silicon, carbonates, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting a cautious and diversified approach to investment in the commodity futures market [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Domestic precious metals opened higher and then dived last night. Shanghai gold closed down, while Shanghai silver closed up [1] - **Fundamentals**: The US service PMI was strong, while ADP employment was weak. The US Treasury maintained the bond issuance scale and did not increase the issuance of medium - and long - term bonds in the next few quarters. The US resumed the Iran - US negotiation. Domestic gold ETFs had an inflow of 1.2 tons, and there were changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For gold, reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term, while still being optimistic in the long term. For silver, the spot market remains tight, but the market is volatile and sentiment is fragile, so it is advisable to participate with caution [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: After the shocks on Friday and Monday, risk appetite needs time to recover. The Sino - US leaders' call at night partially repaired risk appetite. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and China called for restricting investment in smelting projects. The spot of flat - water copper in East and South China was traded at a discount of about 150 yuan, and the refined - scrap price difference fluctuated around 3000 yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize and then buy [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 23955 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The US is expected to launch a key mineral reserve plan, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The LME aluminum price stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will fluctuate strongly [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.53% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2824 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation - maintenance stage, while aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price shows signs of stopping falling, and with the increasing number of industry maintenance and production cuts, the marginal change in the supply side becomes the core factor leading the market. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain a weakly strong trend in the short term. Follow up on the maintenance and production - cut situation of alumina plants [2] Industrial Metals and Chemicals Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract opened flat in the morning on Wednesday, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed at 8850 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. The polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon output in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons, and the weekly output of the organic silicon industry continues to decrease slightly. The aluminum alloy operating rate stabilizes at around 60% [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The market focuses on the production - cut situation and duration of large factories this week. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8400 - 9200 yuan. If the production - cut duration of large factories is limited, consider shorting at high prices with light positions [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 147,220 yuan/ton (- 880), with a closing price decrease of 0.59% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) remained unchanged. Some lithium salt plants carried out maintenance, and the weekly output decreased. The output of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials in January decreased, and the production in February is expected to continue to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight - balance state in January, and the total inventory days increased. The warehouse receipts in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The current price reflects high demand expectations. The industrial end expects the material - end production in March to be weaker than that in January. The core is the game between high raw material prices and high - growth demand. It is expected to fluctuate highly in the short term [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract opened flat in the morning on Wednesday, fluctuated and rose throughout the day, and closed at 51195 yuan/ton, an increase of 1195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output decreased by 6%, and the industry inventory increased by 4% this week. The warehouse receipts increased significantly this week. The silicon wafer production in February remained stable, while the component production decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The total photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 is expected to exceed 300GW, exceeding market expectations. The component export in December increased by 10% year - on - year, and the cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - refund policy on the 9th supports component exports during the window period [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There are rumors that the industry association is re - calculating production costs. In the short term, focus on the spot transaction price range. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly between 45000 - 53000 yuan [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [3] - **Fundamentals**: Market risk appetite needs time to recover, and the Sino - US leaders' call helped repair market sentiment. US technology stocks declined significantly, and the AI narrative may be shaken. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and there was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine. The domestic deliverable brand had a premium of about 800 yuan, and the London structure had an 850 - dollar contango. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 377 tons [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize and then buy [3] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3105 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The building - material apparent demand decreased by 610,000 tons to 3.38 million tons week - on - week, and the production decreased by 330,000 tons to 3.97 million tons. The building - material demand expectation is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high. The inventory level is still high, but the marginal change in inventory is the strongest in the same period in history. Steel mills continue to lose money, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot is relatively weak, and the futures valuation is neutral. It is expected that the steel futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3090 - 3150 yuan [4] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 773.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The Australia - Brazil shipment volume increased by 1.27 million tons to 25.21 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 2.49 million tons year - on - year. The arrival volume increased by 440,000 tons to 26.69 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 8.17 million tons year - on - year. The iron - ore supply and demand are neutral. The molten - iron production decreased by 100 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 10,400 tons year - on - year. The first - round price increase has been implemented, and there are no further price - increase plans. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The supply is in line with seasonal rules and slightly increases year - on - year. The furnace - charge replenishment is nearly over, and the inventory days continue to rise to near the historical average level. The proportion of mainstream iron - ore inventory in ports is extremely low, and the structural contradiction persists. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron - ore futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 760 - 790 yuan [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1187.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading - day night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: The molten - iron production decreased by 100 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week, and increased by 10,400 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The first - round price increase has been implemented, and there are no further price - increase plans. The inventory at different supply - chain links is differentiated, with high inventory at ports and mine mouths and low inventory at other links. The overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 - contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained. The coking - coal supply and demand are weak [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1160 - 1210 yuan [4] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybeans rose sharply overnight, driven by the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans after the Sino - US leaders' call [5] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, the near - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply from South America is expected to be large. Brazil has entered the early - harvest stage, and private institutions expect an increase in production, while Argentina may face dry weather. In the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. Overall, the global supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, showing a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets due to the increase in US soybean prices and the decrease in South American price discounts [5] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and most corn spot prices fell [5] - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has passed half, and the grain - selling pressure is not large. However, at the end of the year, the grain - selling mentality in the Northeast production area has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years, but the enthusiasm for building inventories at the current price is not high. Southern imported grains are cost - effective, and enterprises tend to import for supplementation. In the short term, the enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast is high, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and fall, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: The enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast production area has increased, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm - oil market rose yesterday [6] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, MPOA estimates that the Malaysian production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - reduction period. In the demand side, exports improved month - on - month, and high - frequency ITS data shows that Malaysian exports increased by 18% month - on - month in January. Overall, the near - term inventory - reduction logic holds [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are strong in the short term. Trade based on seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations. In the medium term, pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures prices fluctuated and fell overnight, while international crude - oil futures prices continued to rise. The Zhengzhou cotton futures prices entered a shock - adjustment phase, but the long - term upward trend remains valid [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending January 31, the cumulative listed volume of cotton in Pakistan in the 2025/2026 season was 859,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In December, Argentina exported 10,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.1% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Domestically, according to the BCO announcement, some enterprises in Xinjiang maintained stable production and sales, and overall orders were relatively sufficient [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The price range is 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and egg spot prices fell more sharply [6] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply and demand, the number of laying hens in production decreased. The previous increase in egg prices led to improved profits, and the enthusiasm for replenishing the flock increased, and the price of chicks rose rapidly, slowing down the capacity reduction. The stocking is coming to an end, the risk - control sentiment in the trading end has increased, the inventory has increased significantly, the egg price has fallen rapidly, the demand has weakened, and the egg price is expected to fall seasonally, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The demand has weakened, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Most pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, with the start of Spring - Festival stocking, the slaughter volume is expected to increase rapidly in the next week. However, the average daily slaughter pressure this month is large, and the slaughter progress is slow. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, and the pig price is expected to be weak [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to fluctuate slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was 180 yuan lower than the futures price. The basis was weak, and the market transaction was average. Overseas, the US - dollar price remained stable, and the import window was closed [7] - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, new plants were put into operation earlier, and some plants reduced their loads or stopped production, so the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window remained closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly later. Overall, the domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace. In the demand side, the current downstream agricultural - film season is off - peak, and the demand has weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remains stable [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the industrial - chain inventory is slightly reduced, the basis is weak, and the supply - demand situation before the Spring Festival is weak. Pay attention to geopolitical situations. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the medium term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy at low prices [7][8] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5130 yuan, an increase of 0.4% [8] - **Fundamentals**: The PVC atmosphere was boosted, and the price rose. The supply was large, with the January output expected to be 2.148 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The expected operating rate in the fourth quarter is 78 - 80%. The downstream factory operating rate dropped to about 36%. The real - estate market weakened in December, and the new construction and completion decreased by 25% year - on - year. The social inventory accumulated at a high level, and the PVC social inventory on January 30 was 1.2064 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.45

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is witnessing an increase in hedging strategies among listed companies, with 91 companies announcing hedging-related activities this year, covering various sectors such as equipment manufacturing, automotive parts, fine chemicals, and new energy materials [1] Group 1: Hedging Strategies - Companies are increasingly customizing hedging strategies based on their operational characteristics to build robust risk management frameworks [1] - Hedging can effectively mitigate risks related to raw materials, exchange rates, and interest rates, enhancing corporate competitiveness and financial health [1] - Cross-border and full supply chain companies can alleviate regional operational risks and manage price fluctuations across the entire supply chain [1] Group 2: Specific Company Announcements - Dongwei Technology announced plans to use futures and options for hedging to mitigate uncertainties from raw material price fluctuations, with a maximum trading margin and premium of 25 million yuan and a maximum contract value of 250 million yuan [2] - Ningbo Fangzheng plans to engage in commodity futures and foreign exchange hedging to reduce adverse impacts from raw material price volatility, with a total margin and premium cap of 60 million yuan or equivalent foreign currency [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - Analysts predict a bullish trend for copper prices in 2025 and 2026, making hedging an effective tool for managing price volatility [3] - Companies are moving towards regular hedging practices, integrating them into their operational processes rather than using them solely for short-term emergencies [3] - Jiangsu Longpan Technology has announced a hedging plan with a margin and premium cap of 300 million yuan and a maximum contract value of 1.2 billion yuan, emphasizing the need for foreign exchange hedging due to increasing overseas business [3][4] Group 4: Recommendations for Hedging Practices - Companies should develop hedging strategies based on real risk exposure, considering procurement cycles, inventory levels, and tool liquidity [4] - A recommendation is made for companies to establish independent control mechanisms for decision-making, execution, and risk management, ensuring that hedging remains focused on risk mitigation rather than speculation [4]

绪论 1.1 研究背景 近年来，中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，产业结构调整与新旧动能转换进入关键期。在复杂的全球 地缘政治格局与国内经济周期性调整的叠加影响下，大宗商品价格波动加剧，汇率与利率风险日益显现。在这一宏观 背景下，实体经济对于规避价格波动风险、实现稳健经营的需求显著增强。金融体系的使命已不再局限于传统的融资 支持，而是向"融资与风险管理并重"的功能深化。期货及衍生品市场作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分，其在价格发 现、风险管理和资源配置中的作用不断凸显，成为服务国家战略、保障产业链供应链安全的重要力量（Sun et.al， 2023；宋凌峰和叶翰章，2023；徐君和龚旭，2025）。 长期以来，我国期货市场曾被视为相对小众、以投机交易为主的市场。然而，随着监管制度持续完善、法治化建设不 断推进以及制度型开放的深入，期货市场的功能定位逐步回归并强化，市场在服务实体经济中的"减震器"和"稳压 器"作用日益得到认可（全国人民代表大会常务委员会，2022；卢米雪等，2021）。与此同时，市场工具体系持续丰 富、覆盖行业不断拓展，使得期货市场从单一的风险对冲场所，逐渐演变为大类资产配置的重要组成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 3, 2026, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities declined with non - ferrous metals leading the rises [10][12][13] - Short - term copper prices are volatile due to macro disturbances but have a favorable medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook [16][21][22] - Tin prices have strong downside support in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term volatility risks [26][28][30] - Crude oil prices dropped, and the market is in supply - surplus, with the future trend depending on the U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [33][34][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 3.8% and IM rose 2.9% [10][12] - CGB futures: TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.10% [10] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were Palladium (8.6% rise, 4.3% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Poly - Silicon (6.6% rise, 4.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and SCFIS(Europe) (5.2% rise, 1.3% month - on - month open - interest increase); top decliners were Silver (16.7% decline, 10.4% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Tin (6.7% decline, 7.5% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and Crude Oil (4.9% decline, 12.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Copper - On February 3, the front - month contract of copper rose 2.6% to 104,500 yuan/ton (SHFE) [16][21][23] - Macro: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair led to a stronger dollar and copper price correction [17][21] - Supply - demand: Supply disruptions increased, long - term processing fees were at a low, squeezing smelters' profits; demand is currently weak but expected to be tight in the long run [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Tin - On February 3, the front - month contract of tin dropped 6.7% to 383,340 yuan/ton (SHFE) [26][29][31] - Supply: Issues in Wa State, Indonesia, and DRC affect supply; mineral - end supply tightens and smelter capital pressure increases [27][29][30] - Demand: Semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors drive demand growth [27][30] - Risk: Short - term price volatility due to a strong dollar, stable supply, and weakened long - side momentum [28][30] 3.1.3.2 Crude Oil - On February 3, the front - month contract of crude oil dropped 4.9% to 449.4 yuan/barrel (INE) [33][36][38] - Geopolitical: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, reducing the geopolitical premium [33][36] - Fundamentals: Global inventories rose, Kazakhstan's supply recovered, and refined - oil inventories faced pressure [34][36] - Outlook: Supply is in surplus; future prices depend on U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [35][36] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Shanghai launched the acquisition of second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui Districts to meet talents' "job - housing balance" needs [41] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the Ag(T + D) contract's margin from 26% to 23% and the price fluctuation limit from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [42]