Group 1 - The current market sentiment indicates a lack of clear direction, with precious metals not performing as expected despite global turmoil, suggesting it may not be the right time to invest [1] - Oil positions have been cleared due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. actions and geopolitical tensions, leading to a cautious approach in re-entering the market [1] - The U.S. stock market is undergoing a significant adjustment, and the A-share market is also viewed as unfavorable, with no clear opportunities arising from military spending announcements [1] Group 2 - There is speculation that agricultural products may see price increases, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [1] - Some analysts suggest investing in chemical products and raw materials as a strategy to capitalize on expected price hikes [4] - The overall sentiment in the capital markets reflects a lack of confidence in the analysis of the ongoing war, with many traders feeling uninformed about the potential outcomes [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped, with New Energy Metals leading the decline. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Methanol, Ethylene Glycol, and Fiberboard, while the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, and Chinese Jujube [10][12][13]. - Gold remains in high - level consolidation with solid medium - term support. It may trade in a high range in the short term and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][18][19]. - Silver's upward momentum has slowed, and volatility may remain elevated. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation in the near term, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][24][25]. - Tin supply risks remain elevated, and tin prices still have bottom support, but are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term due to weak macro sentiment and supply improvement expectations [28][30][31]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 18, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities dropped. New Energy Metals led the drop. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.8%, and IH dropped 0.4%. In commodity futures, Methanol rose 3.3% with open - interest increasing 7.9% month - on - month, Ethylene Glycol gained 1.1% with open - interest increasing 0.1% month - on - month, and Fiberboard advanced 1.1% with open - interest decreasing 58.6% month - on - month. The top three decliners were Poly - Silicon (down 5.1% with open - interest increasing 1.4% month - on - month), Lithium Carbonate (down 4.4% with open - interest decreasing 0.5% month - on - month), and Chinese Jujube (down 2.8% with open - interest decreasing 9.7% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Drop 3.2.1 Gold - On March 18, the Gold main contract dropped 0.2% to 1113.52 yuan/g (SHFE). Middle - East tensions, energy infrastructure attacks, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions provide safe - haven and inflation - hedge premiums. High oil prices heighten inflation risks and dampen Fed rate - cut expectations, weighing on gold in the short term. However, gold's medium - term allocation value is prominent, and Asian demand offers downside support. In the short term, it may trade in a high range, and its medium - term performance depends on energy shocks and growth prospects [16][17][19]. 3.2.2 Silver - On March 18, the Silver main contract dropped 2.4% to 19980 yuan/kg (SHFE). It is supported by geopolitical safe - haven demand and inflation expectations but has weaker financial attributes than gold. Short - term performance is more sensitive to risk sentiment and interest rate expectations. Current high - interest - rate expectations constrain its valuation. If stagflation pricing deepens, its volatility may remain higher than gold. In the near term, it is expected to maintain high - level consolidation, and if precious metals allocation demand spreads, it has room for catch - up gains [22][23][25]. 3.2.3 Tin - On March 18, the Tin main contract dropped 2.6% to 370000 yuan/ton (SHFE). Supply risks remain high, and tin prices have bottom support, but there are no short - term drivers due to macro headwinds. Supply is expected to improve as Wa State restarts mines and Indonesia raises its production target, while the DRC situation keeps supply risks high. Demand from the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. Overall, tin prices are expected to trade range - bound in the medium to short term [28][29][31]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - Trump has confirmed the postponement of his visit to China, and China and the US will maintain communications on this matter [34]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has rolled out a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign investment projects with a planned total investment of $13.4 billion, including logistics projects for the first time [34]. - The Iranian President has confirmed the death of Ali Larijani [34]. - Trump has said that the US should consider withdrawing from NATO [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Iran situation's tail - risk has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors. Oil price increases have also driven up oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the sessions. The Chinese government sets economic growth at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan [2]. - China's January - February foreign trade data exceeded expectations, driven by the Spring Festival base effect and global external demand recovery. However, geopolitical risks may affect March data [2]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, followed by a large - scale counter - attack from Iran. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East, disrupted the supply chain, and blocked the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Some Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have cut production. The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei. Trump said the war in Iran "won't end this week" but "will end soon" [1]. Domestic and International News - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqchi said Iran's new supreme leader won't consider dialogue or negotiation with the US. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran won't trust US commitments [6]. - Trump said there may be conditional negotiations with Iran but expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's new supreme leader [6]. - China's February exports and imports in US dollars increased by 39.6% and 13.8% respectively, with a trade surplus of $909.8 billion. In RMB, exports and imports increased by 36.1% and 10.9% respectively, with a trade surplus of 6375.5 billion yuan [6]. Macro - economic Data - Due to the government shutdown, the US Q4 2025 GDP growth rate was 1.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. February CPI rose to 1.3%, core CPI rose 1.8%, and PPI decline narrowed to 0.9% [2]. - China's January - February exports in US dollars increased by 21.8%, imports by 19.8%. February single - month exports increased by 39.6%. Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 27.8%, 29.4%, and 49.9% respectively. High - tech and electromechanical products were the main drivers. Imported commodities showed differentiation [2]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices drive commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals are inversely related to oil prices. Energy sector needs to watch the Iran situation and "sell - the - fact" risks. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products and oilseeds. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from March 9 to March 14, 2026, focusing on various economic data releases and their potential impact on the futures market. Key factors such as domestic macro - policies, international geopolitical situations, and speeches of relevant figures are also emphasized [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 March 9 - China's February CPI is predicted to grow 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.2%), and PPI is predicted to decline 1.2% year - on - year (previous value - 1.4%). If the CPI rises and PPI decline narrows, it will help commodity and stock index futures prices rise and suppress treasury bond futures [3]. - The expected value of the Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index is 3, with a previous value of 4.2 [4]. - The New York Fed will release the US February 1 - year inflation expectation, with a previous value of 3.1% [5]. 3.2 March 10 - Japan's Q4 2025 GDP revised value: the expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP quarterly rate is 0.3% (initial value 0.1%, Q3 revised value - 0.6%); the expected seasonally - adjusted real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 1.2% (initial value 0.2%, Q3 revised value - 2.3%) [6]. - China's January - February import and export data: exports are expected to grow 7% year - on - year (December 2025: 6.6%), and imports are expected to grow 6% year - on - year (December 2025: 5.7%). Higher growth rates will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures and suppress treasury bond futures [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the February 2026 China Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Situation Analysis Report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [9]. - China's February social financing scale increment is expected to be 1900 billion yuan (previous value 7220.8 billion yuan), new RMB loans are expected to be 850 billion yuan (previous value 4710 billion yuan), and the M2 balance is expected to grow 8.9% year - on - year (previous value 9.0%) [10]. - The US February existing home sales: the expected annualized total number is 3.9 million units (previous value 3.91 million units), and the expected annualized monthly rate is - 1.5% (previous value - 8.4%) [11]. 3.3 March 11 - The USDA will release the monthly supply - demand report, which may affect related agricultural product futures prices [12]. - The EIA will release the monthly short - term energy outlook report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13]. - OPEC will release the monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [14]. - The US February CPI: the expected unadjusted CPI year - on - year growth is 2.4% (previous value 2.4%), the expected seasonally - adjusted CPI monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value 0.2%), the expected unadjusted core CPI year - on - year growth is 2.4% (previous value 2.5%), and the expected unadjusted core CPI monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value 0.3%) [15]. - The EIA will release the change in US crude oil inventories for the week of March 6. A continued increase will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16]. 3.4 March 12 - The IEA will release the monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [19]. - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 are expected to be 215,000 (previous value 213,000). A slight increase will slightly boost gold and silver futures prices and suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices [20]. 3.5 March 13 - The US January PCE price index: the expected annual rate is 2.8% (previous value 2.9%), the expected monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value 0.4%), the expected core PCE annual rate is 3.0% (previous value 3.0%), and the expected core PCE monthly rate is 0.4% (previous value 0.4%) [21]. - The US Q4 2025 GDP revised value: the expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 1.4% (initial value 1.4%, Q3 2025 GDP annualized quarterly rate final value 4.4%) [22]. - The US January durable goods orders initial value: the expected monthly rate is 0.8% (previous value - 1.4%). A higher rate will boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices and suppress gold and silver futures prices [23]. - The US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value is expected to be 55 (previous value 56.6). A lower value will suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices and boost gold and silver futures prices [24]. 3.6 March 14 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important means of production in the circulation field in early March, covering 9 categories and 50 products [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 4, equity index futures showed low performances, while commodities were mixed, with Precious Metals leading the drop [11][13]. - The strengthening US Dollar Index weighed on platinum prices, and the US - Iran tensions have continued to roil the precious metals market [33][34]. - Poly - Silicon prices have broken below the cost support level, and in the short - term, prices are under pressure, but may gradually recover in the medium - term [27][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 4, in equity index futures, IH dropped 1.3% and IF dropped 1.2%; in CGB futures, TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.01%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Crude Oil and Fuel Oil, while the top three decliners were Tin, Platinum and Poly - Silicon [11][13]. 1.2 Daily Drop 1.2.1 Silver - On March 4, the main contract of Silver dropped 4.4% to 21,854 yuan/g. Silver's high beta characteristic has amplified price volatility. Geopolitical risks, energy price trends, and air transportation disruptions have affected silver prices. If risk premiums persist and energy prices remain high, silver will retain resilience; if the US dollar and yields strengthen, silver prices may correct more than gold [18][20][21]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - Poly - Silicon prices have been sliding since the New Year. On March 4, the main poly - silicon futures contract dropped 4.5% to 42,200 yuan/ton. Market expectations of "anti - cutthroat competition" have wavered, and demand has been weak. Supply has decreased in February, and is expected to remain low in March. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, but may gradually recover in the medium - term [24][25][27]. 1.2.3 Platinum - On March 4, the main contract of Platinum dropped 4.5% to 563.5 yuan/g. The strengthening US Dollar Index weighed on platinum prices. The US - Iran tensions have roiled the precious metals market. In the medium - to long - term, platinum prices are expected to trend upward with fluctuations [33][34][37]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on the morning of March 5 and last for 8 days. In February, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point; the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points [40][41]. 2.2 Industry News - Multiple exchanges adjusted price limits and trading margin ratios for various futures contracts on March 4, including INE (crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, SCFIS(Europe)), SHFE (fuel oil), DCE (LPG, ethenylbenzene, ethylene glycol), and ZCE (methanol) [46][48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese futures market in February 2026, covering key events, price changes, trading volume, and other aspects of different types of futures, including financial, metal, energy & chemicals, agricultural products, and indices futures [10][25][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Overview 3.1.1 News of the Month - **Global**: The US and Israel launched a joint strike on Iran, killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; the Strait of Hormuz was closed; Trump is likely to visit China from March 31 to April 2 [10]. - **US**: The US Supreme Court rejected Trump's IEEPA tariffs, and the White House imposed a 10% import duty on all goods entering the US for 150 days [14]. - **China**: Putin may visit China in the first half of 2026; China will impose zero tariffs on all imports from 53 African countries with diplomatic ties; German Chancellor Merz made his first official visit to China; China suspended additional tariffs on certain Canadian goods [17]. - **Industry**: Zimbabwe banned lithium ore exports; Indonesia is studying an export ban on tin and other raw materials; Myanmar tensions raised tin supply concerns [20]. 3.1.2 Price Change - **Financial Futures**: In February 2026, equity index futures rose, with IC increasing by 3.4% and IH decreasing by 0.9%; CGB futures also rose, with TL and TF increasing by 0.1% [25]. - **Commodity Futures**: Slightly more commodities fell. The top 3 gainers were Lithium Carbonate (18.8%), Tin (10.8%), and Egg (8.8%); the top 3 losers were Silver (17.6%), Methanol (6.1%), and LLDPE (5.9%) [30]. - **Metals**: Slightly more metal futures fell. The top 3 gainers were Lithium Carbonate (18.8%), Tin (10.8%), and Manganese Silicon (2.6%); the top 3 losers were Silver (17.6%), Iron Ore (5.2%), and Silicon Metal (5.1%) [33]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical futures fell. The top 3 gainers were Sodium Hydroxide (7.6%), LSFO (7.2%), and LPG (5.3%); the top 3 losers were Methanol (6.1%), LLDPE (5.9%), and Ethylene Glycol (5.4%) [37]. - **Agricultural Products**: Most agricultural futures rose. The top 3 gainers were Egg (8.8%), No.1 Soybean (7.4%), and Corn Starch (5.8%); the top 3 losers were Synthetic Rubber (5.7%), RBD Palm Olein (5.0%), and Peanut Kernel (2.1%) [41]. 3.1.3 Trading Volume - **Initial Margin**: On February 27, 2026, compared with January 30, 2026, initial margin outflow occurred in Metal (-0.2%), Equity Index (-12.2%), and Interest Rates (-4.0%); initial margin inflow occurred in Energy & Chemicals (7.8%), Indices (12.3%), and Agricultural Products (3.7%) [46]. - **Volume**: In February, the volume of China's futures market reached 398.44 million lots, with a -14.6% year-on-year growth [51]. - **Turnover**: In February, the turnover of China's futures market reached 553,348.31 billion yuan, with a 7.5% year-on-year growth [55]. - **Future Exchanges**: Different futures exchanges had varying changes in trading volume and turnover year-on-year [57]. - **Futures Share**: Detailed information on the volume, turnover, and cumulative turnover share of different futures varieties was provided [60][62]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Equity Index Futures - In February 2026, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased by 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, while SSE 50 decreased by 0.9% [65]. 3.2.2 Interest Rates Futures - In February 2026, 2-Year CGB, 5-Year CGB, 10-Year CGB, and 30-Year CGB all increased by 0.1% [69]. 3.3 Metal Futures 3.3.1 Precious Metals Futures - In February 2026, Gold decreased by 1.2%, Silver decreased by 17.6%, Palladium increased by 0.2%, and Platinum decreased by 1.1% [74]. 3.3.2 Nonferrous Metals Futures - In February 2026, Tin increased by 10.8%, while Zinc decreased by 4.4% [78]. 3.3.3 Ferrous Metals Futures - In February 2026, Manganese Silicon increased by 2.6%, while Iron Ore decreased by 5.2% [82]. 3.3.4 Novel Materials Futures - In February 2026, Lithium Carbonate increased by 18.8%, while Silicon Metal decreased by 5.1% [87]. 3.4 Energy & Chemicals 3.4.1 Oil & Gas Futures - In February 2026, Crude Oil increased by 3.7%, while Bitumen decreased by 2.3% [93]. 3.4.2 Olefins Futures - In February 2026, Propylene decreased by 0.3%, while LLDPE decreased by 5.9% [97]. 3.4.3 Aromatics Futures - In February 2026, Benzene decreased by 0.6%, while Paraxylene decreased by 0.1% [103]. 3.4.4 Organics Futures - In February 2026, Methanol decreased by 6.1%, while Urea increased by 3.2% [106]. 3.4.5 Inorganics Futures - In February 2026, Soda Ash decreased by 0.8%, while Sodium Hydroxide increased by 7.6% [110]. 3.4.6 Coals Futures - In February 2026, Coking Coal decreased by 5.4%, while Coke decreased by 5.0% [113]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Oil Crops Futures - In February 2026, No.1 Soybean increased by 7.4%, while RBD Palm Olein decreased by 5.0% [119]. 3.5.2 Grains Futures - In February 2026, Corn increased by 3.9%, while Corn Starch increased by 5.8% [128]. 3.5.3 Rubber & Woods Futures - In February 2026, Natural Rubber increased by 4.9%, while Synthetic Rubber decreased by 5.7% [132]. 3.5.4 Animals Futures - In February 2026, Egg increased by 8.8%, while Live Hog increased by 2.4% [136]. 3.5.5 Economic Crops Futures - In February 2026, Cotton increased by 4.9%, while Peanut Kernel decreased by 2.1% [140]. 3.6 Indices Futures - In February 2026, SCFIS(Europe) decreased by 0.2% [146].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Based on weekly futures technical indicator signals, different trends are predicted for various commodity and financial futures. In commodity futures, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors show different signals, including bullish, bearish, and sideways trends. In financial futures, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are bullish, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 index futures are sideways, and 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are also sideways. Overall, investors need to pay attention to position control and stop - profit/stop - loss [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold in the precious metals sector is bearish, and silver is sideways; in the non - ferrous metals sector, zinc, nickel, industrial silicon, and aluminum alloy are bullish, polysilicon is bearish, and the rest are sideways [9]. - For the Shanghai copper main contract, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of building positions on dips between 100,000 and 103,000 yuan/ton, but need to strictly control positions [12]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and wire rods are bullish, and the rest are sideways; the European container shipping index shows a sideways trend [18]. - The main contract of rebar is expected to be in a sideways repair state next week, with support at 3000 - 3040 yuan/ton [22]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy sector is bullish; in the chemical sector, propylene, glass, and soda ash are bullish, pulp and staple fiber are bearish, and the rest are sideways [30]. - The main contract of PTA is expected to be sideways in the short term, with an oscillation range of 5000 - 5400 yuan/ton [35]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean oil, sugar, logs, soybean meal, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, corn, and eggs are bullish, and the rest are sideways [41]. - The main contract of corn still has upward potential in the short term, but the risk of a pullback is increasing. The resistance range is 2380 - 2420 yuan/ton, and the support range is 2220 - 2250 yuan/ton. Long positions need strict position management [46]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are bullish, and SSE 50 and SSE 300 index futures are sideways [52]. - The IC CSI 500 index futures are expected to rise slowly next week [54]. - The IF SSE 300 index futures are expected to be slightly bullish and sideways in the short term [59]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are sideways [63]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures need to be alert to the short - term pullback risk [67]. - The TS 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be sideways in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about the pullback risk [71].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will continue its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations on February 25, with an amount to be determined based on market demand, as 300 billion MLF is set to mature on the same day [1] - Germany's GDP revision for Q4 2025 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, unchanged from the initial estimate, and an annual growth rate of 0.6%, up from the previous value of 0.3% [2] - The Eurozone's January CPI final value is anticipated to be 1.7%, down from the previous value of 1.9%, while the core CPI is expected to be 2.2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.3% [3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index for February is projected to be 99.8, an increase from the previous value of 99.4, while the industrial sentiment index is expected to improve to -6.3 from -6.8 [5] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 are expected to rise slightly to 216,000 from the previous 206,000, which may impact commodity futures prices [6] - The U.S. PPI for January is forecasted to show a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, down from 3.0%, with core PPI expected at 2.9%, down from 3.3% [7] - The Chicago PMI for February is anticipated to be 52.5, a decrease from the previous value of 54 [8] Group 3 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin on February 28, which is expected to influence related commodity futures prices [10] - OPEC+ will hold a monthly meeting on March 1 to discuss oil production policies, focusing on whether to resume production increases starting in April, which could affect oil and related commodity futures prices [10]

Market Performance - On February 24, the A-share market opened with a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to 4117.41 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by over 1% [1] - The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with over 4000 stocks rising and 111 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - All stock index futures closed higher, with the CSI 300 index futures rising by 0.94% and the SSE 50 index futures increasing by 0.24% [1] Commodity Futures - Commodity futures also performed well, with most sectors seeing gains, particularly precious metals, energy, and chemicals [1] - Silver rose nearly 13%, lithium carbonate increased by nearly 11%, and crude oil surged over 6% [1] - The black series, however, experienced declines, with coke dropping over 2% and both coking coal and iron ore falling nearly 2% [1] Market Drivers - Three main reasons for the stock index futures' positive opening were identified: easing concerns over U.S. military actions against Iran, a favorable ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding Trump's tariffs, and optimistic expectations for domestic policy and economic improvements [2] - The increase in precious metals was attributed to heightened uncertainty around U.S. tariff policies, leading to a return of risk-averse capital and a weaker dollar, which boosted gold prices [2] - The strong performance of the European shipping index was driven by expectations rather than fundamental improvements, influenced by the U.S. Supreme Court ruling and increased export expectations [3] Oil Price Dynamics - Oil prices surged due to reports of potential limited military action by Trump against Iran, which could disrupt global oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz [3] - The takeover of Venezuelan oil sales by the Trump administration has also contributed to rising shipping costs for oil tankers [3] - However, long-term oil price trends are expected to revert to fundamentals, with the International Energy Agency reporting the fastest accumulation of global oil inventories since 2020 [4] Black Sector Performance - The black sector showed weak performance, attributed to lower steel demand and high iron production levels, leading to a loose supply-demand balance [4] - Iron ore shipments during the holiday period reached their highest levels, while coking coal began to resume production, indicating downward cost pressures [4]

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.27% to 4065.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.11% to 13906.73 points [8][10] - The convertible bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.05% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 0.36% [15][16] - The bond market saw most yields rise, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 2.08 basis points, while the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields decreased [18][19] Group 2 - The commodity futures market weakened overall, with significant declines in silver prices, which dropped by 9.06%, while gold prices increased by 1.65% [9][28] - The market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with CBOT soybeans rising by 4.75% and corn increasing by 0.58% [9][10] - The overall commodity index experienced a decline of 4.49%, with precious metals leading the drop at 17.11% [27][30]