来源：期权时代 01 今年6月，中国证监会发布公告称，将从2025年10月9日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内ETF期权交易，交易目的限于套期保值。 9月30日晚间，上交所通知，即日起开始受理合格境外投资者参与股票期权交易的业务办理申请，深交所也通知称，自10月9日起开始受理合格境外投资者 参与股票期权交易的业务办理申请。中国结算也同日发布通知各结算参与人做好业务技术准备。 今年以来，中国证监会先后放宽合格境外投资者参与境内商品期货、商品期权和ETF期权等产品的限制。此举旨在持续拓展合格境外投资者可投资范围， 发挥合格境外投资者制度的优势和吸引力，便利境外机构投资者特别是配置型资金运用适配的风险管理工具，有利于提升外资机构投资行为的稳定性，促 进其对A股的长期投资。 02 合格境外投资者参与ETF期权交易将于国庆假期后A股市场第一个交易日起（10月9日）正式实施。 9月30日，上交所、深交所分别发布《关于合格境外机构投资者和人民币合格境外机构投资者参与股票期权交易有关事项的通知》。 《通知》称，合格境外投资者可以参与在沪深交易所上市的交易型开放式指数基金期权（ETF期权）交易，交易目的限于套期保值。 合格境外投资 ...

Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 Ø 近两年，债券收益率流畅的下行一方面支撑来自于基本面，另一 方面资产荒的大环境必不可少。资金是逐利的，当国内主要资产 收益率面临下滑，缺乏赚钱效应时，低息的债券以稳胜出，被投 资者所选择。叠加资本利得的加持以及国内货币政策宽松的背 景，综合才造就了这两年较为极致的债牛行情。 Ø 今年以来，若按传统的债券分析框架，基本面并未出现明显的边 际变化去支撑债券收益率走高，尤其是下半年年以来，出口压力 加大，制造业动能转弱，国补逐步退出，经济出现断档式回落的 压力。三季度债券市场意外转向，我们认为最核心的变化在于股 市的牛市行情。权益市场牛市预期逐步形成，商品也在反内卷政 策下有看不见的手托底，两个大类资产的赚钱效应显现导致投资 者不再满足于债券微薄的收益，资金出现分流，情绪转弱易跌难 涨。 Ø 三季度末债券市场仍未出现明确的企稳迹象，收益率上行难言结 束。对债券市场而言，主要的利空仍是风险资产收益回升对资金 的分流，股市强势表现的持续性较强，尚未看到明显回落盘整的 迹象。从政策的导向来看，股市引导中长期资金入市，中国资产 价格重估是中长期趋势。因此，无论是外资还是境内机构 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for commodities during the upcoming National Day holiday in China, highlighting the impact of recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions on market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has restarted a new round of interest rate cuts, leading to a shift in market strategies and increased volatility in asset prices [2]. - The easing of U.S.-China tensions and the gradual reduction of tariffs are contributing to a more optimistic economic recovery outlook, reflected in rising U.S. stock prices and strengthening silver and copper prices [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, pose significant risks to energy prices and shipping rates, which are likely to experience sharp fluctuations during the holiday [2]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - In China, there has been a trend of strong expectations but weak realities, particularly following the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a focus on economic fundamentals and a decline in optimistic sentiment [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a necessary response to external pressures and a move towards a high-quality development model, with the market closely monitoring its implementation and effects on economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that the current rebound in the Chinese stock market is driven by "re-inflation" expectations and themes related to artificial intelligence, with institutional investors playing a crucial role [5]. - The temporary cancellation of export taxes on agricultural products in Argentina is expected to increase soybean exports, potentially alleviating supply concerns in China for the upcoming quarter [6]. - A field survey in Xinjiang indicates a significant reduction in red date production, with an estimated yield drop of approximately 39.2% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about quality and overall supply [8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trading Opportunities - The article identifies high liquidity commodities and suggests potential trading opportunities in various sectors, including palm oil and construction materials, while cautioning against investments in government bonds due to tightening monetary policy [9][10]. - The glass market has seen a recent price increase driven by supply-side policies and seasonal demand, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [24][26].

Core Insights - As of the end of 2024, 529 out of 5,383 listed companies in China's A-share market are participating in futures and options trading, representing 9.8% of all listed companies and 35.8% of the market capitalization [1] - The number of listed companies engaging in commodity futures and options has increased, with 509 companies participating, accounting for 9.5% of all listed companies and over 30% of market capitalization, showing an improvement from 2023 levels [1][3] - The average market capitalization of companies participating in commodity futures and options is 66.69 billion yuan, which is significantly higher than the overall market average of 18.36 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.1% from 2023 [3] Group 1 - The cumulative hedging position of non-financial listed companies in commodity futures has exceeded 50% of their total cumulative positions, marking a 15 percentage point increase from 2023 [3] - The participation of state-owned listed companies in the commodity futures and options market is notable, with approximately 40% of all listed companies being state-owned and accounting for nearly 80% of the total cumulative positions [3] - The participation rate in various commodity futures and options is high, with companies engaging in 116 different products, which is 92% of the total listed products for the year [3] Group 2 - The increase in the number of technology innovation-oriented listed companies participating in the futures market indicates the market's positive role in supporting new productivity and industrial development [3] - The most actively traded commodity futures include copper, aluminum, silver, gold, lithium carbonate, rebar, and hot-rolled coil, highlighting the sectors with high participation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Slightly more commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing stronger [2][9][12]. - China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, which is an important stance declaration and will promote global trade and investment liberalization and inject positive energy into the reform of the global economic governance system [36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 24, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Slightly more commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing stronger [9][12]. - Top three gainers in China's commodity futures were glass (up 4.7% with 0.0% m-o-m open interest change), fuel oil (up 3.7% with 25.3% m-o-m open interest change), and SCFIS(Europe) (up 2.7% with -1.4% m-o-m open interest change). Top three decliners were rapeseed meal (down 3.0% with -0.7% m-o-m open interest change), rapeseed oil (down 1.0% with -6.7% m-o-m open interest change), and soybean meal (down 0.8% with 1.4% m-o-m open interest change) [10][11][12]. - In China's financial futures, equity indices rose (IC and IM up 3.9% and 3.2% respectively), and CGB futures fell (TL down 0.4%) [12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Glass - On September 24, glass increased by 4.7% to 1237 yuan/ton. The Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026) was issued, regulating cement and glass production capacity [16][19]. - Current actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory destocking, there may be volatile fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to fluctuate downward [17][19]. - On the demand side, off - season demand declined, deep - processing orders edged up m - o - m, and inventory days decreased m - o - m. Mid - and downstream pre - holiday inventory replenishment is expected to lead to inventory destocking this week, but the replenishment may be ending. On the supply side, some production lines are to be commissioned in September, and there are concerns about production line suspensions due to coal - to - natural - gas conversion in the Shahe area [18][19]. 1.2.2 Soda Ash - On September 24, soda ash increased by 2.3% to 1307 yuan/ton. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and wide - ranging fluctuations are expected in subsequent operations. In the long run, the price center will move downward to drive capacity reduction [24][26]. - On the supply side, production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. The second phase of the Alxa project was commissioned, but output will take time. On the demand side, heavy soda ash procurement is expected to maintain rigid demand, with stable float - glass daily melting volume and rebounding photovoltaic - glass daily melting volume. Light soda ash downstream procurement has flattened, and downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak [25][26]. - Sentiment disturbs the futures market. With the alleviation of shipment issues and mid - stream inventory accumulation, short - term industrial contradictions are limited, and the futures market mostly follows macro policies [26]. 1.2.3 Coking Coal - On September 24, coking coal increased by 1.2% to 1224.5 yuan/ton. "Anti - involution" is the main policy theme, and market sentiment is unlikely to turn significantly cold as relevant expectations are not falsified [29][31]. - Fundamentally, coal mines are producing cautiously during over - capacity inspections, supply recovery is slow, and there is limited room for further growth. Mid - and downstream sectors have started pre - National - Day inventory replenishment, so prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [29][31]. - On the supply side, coal mine production in producing areas is recovering slowly due to safety supervision, environmental protection, and over - capacity inspections. At the import end, Mongolian coal clearance at Ganqimaodu Port remains high. On the demand side, coke output is high, downstream coke enterprises have started pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and some intermediate links have also started purchasing, reducing upstream coal mine inventories [30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On September 24, the MOFCOM held a press briefing to introduce that China, as a responsible major developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations. This is an important stance declaration and a key measure for China to uphold the multilateral trading system and promote global economic governance reform [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed movements with energy & chemicals declining [12][15]. - Silver and gold prices are expected to rise, with silver potentially challenging the 2011 all - time high in Q1 - Q2 and gold maintaining an upward trend in Q4 [21][26]. - Poly - silicon remains in a policy - waiting plateau, with prices expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be a supply surplus in Q4 [35][39]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities had mixed performance, with energy & chemicals weakening. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver, gold, and SCFIS(Europe), and the top three decliners were poly - silicon, LPG, and ferrosilicon. Among financial futures, IM and IF of equity indices increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and TL and T of CGB futures rose by 0.2% [12][13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On September 22, it increased by 3.8% to 10317 yuan/kg. Soft - landing expectations amplify short - term volatility. With the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and stable US fundamentals, silver prices are expected to rise and may challenge the 2011 high in Q1 - Q2. Attention should be paid to US economic data this week [20][21][22]. - **Gold**: On September 22, it increased by 2.0% to 846.5 yuan/gram. Prices may continue to fluctuate and gather momentum in the short term, and maintain an upward trend in Q4. Interest - rate cut expectations are the core bullish driver. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and the risk of its loss of independence may drive gold prices up. However, gold may face pressure if the trading shifts to "recovery", or gain new upside potential under certain negative scenarios [25][26][28]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Poly - silicon**: On September 22, it decreased by 3.6% to 50990 yuan/ton. It is in a policy - waiting plateau, and prices depend on policy signals. The new energy - consumption standard may accelerate the clearance of outdated capacities. Supply may decline slightly in Q4, and demand for the photovoltaic terminal is expected to be weak. There was a slight surplus in Q3, and it may expand in Q4 [35][37][39]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, providing strategic guidance for China - US relations. China and the US are in communication regarding a leaders' meeting at APEC [43]. 2.2 Industry News - Pan Gongsheng said further communication on the 15th Five - Year Plan and future financial reform will be conducted after the central government's unified deployment. - CSRC's Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A - share market value of 3.4 trillion yuan, and 269 enterprises are listed overseas. - As of the end of August, medium - and long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of tradable A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [44][45].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index rising over 1%, driven by active performance in the fruit chain and AI hardware sectors, particularly with Luxshare Precision hitting the daily limit up [1][10] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declined, with Baidu dropping over 4% [1][2] - Gold stocks showed strength, while tourism and retail sectors faced declines [1][6] A-share Performance - As of the latest update, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to 3821.28, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.47% to 13219.29, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.31% to 3148.54 [1][11] - Notable stocks included Luxshare Precision, which saw a significant increase, and other consumer electronics stocks like Hongfu and Industrial Fulian also performed well [10][12] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index was down 0.34% at 26255.23, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.73% to 6212.05 [2][3] - Key declines were observed in tech stocks, with notable drops in Baidu and NIO [13][14] Bond Market - The bond market saw a general decline, with 30-year treasury futures dropping by 0.43%, 10-year futures down by 0.19%, and 5-year futures decreasing by 0.12% [4][9] - The overall trend indicates a bearish sentiment in the bond market [8] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures experienced widespread declines, with polysilicon and shipping indices dropping over 2%, while only a few commodities like gold and silver saw increases [1][16] - Specific commodities such as soybean meal and glass also reported significant drops [5][17] Gold and Precious Metals - The precious metals sector continued to rise, with companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Shandong Gold seeing increases of over 5% [6][7] - Gold stocks followed the upward trend, reflecting the overall strength in the gold market [6][14] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector faced significant declines, with Yunnan Tourism hitting the daily limit down and other companies like Qujiang Cultural Tourism and Guilin Tourism also experiencing substantial drops [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the tourism industry appears negative, impacting stock performance [7]

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including economic data from China, the United States, and the Eurozone [2][3][4] Key Points by Date September 22 - China's central bank will announce the September 2025 LPR at 09:00, with the 1 - year LPR expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR expected to be 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values, having a neutral impact on futures [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry at 15:00, with capital market development likely to be a core topic [4] - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be - 15.4, up from - 15.5 [5] September 23 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, expected to be 51, up from 50.7, which may help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [8] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, expected to be 53.5, up from 53, which may also help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [9] September 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the mid - September market prices of important production materials at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [10] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August new home sales at 22:00, with the seasonally - adjusted annualized total expected to be 653,000, up from 652,000, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 19 at 22:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures prices rise [12] - The US Conference Board will announce the September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be 102.9, down from 103.3, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [13] September 25 - The central bank will conduct an incremental roll - over of the maturing MLF, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing on this day [14] - The Gfk Institute will announce Germany's October consumer confidence index at 14:00, expected to be - 23.3, up from - 23.6 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the Q2 2025 GDP at 20:30, with the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP expected to be 3.3% [16] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of August durable goods orders at 20:30, expected to be - 0.5%, up from - 2.8%, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 at 20:30, expected to be 225,000, down from 231,000, which may help industrial product futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18] - The National Association of Realtors will announce the annualized total of August existing home sales at 22:00, expected to be 3.98 million, down from 4.01 million [19] September 26 - The US Department of Commerce will announce the August PCE price index at 20:30. If the annual and monthly rates of the PCE price index are slightly higher than the previous values and the core PCE price index shows specific changes, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December [20] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August personal consumption expenditures at 20:30, with the monthly rate expected to be 0.4%, down from 0.5%, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [21] September 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in August at 09:30, with the previous value (July) showing a 1.5% year - on - year decline and a 1.7% cumulative decline from January to July [22]

Core Insights - The futures market has shown continuous growth in 2023, with total funds exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][3] - The market's ability to serve the real economy and enhance risk management has improved significantly, indicating a new stage of industry development [2] Market Size and Growth - The total funds in the futures market have rapidly increased since 2020, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan in August 2023, with an expected year-end target of over 2 trillion yuan [3][4] - The cumulative trading volume reached 5.97 billion contracts and a trading value of 47.61 trillion yuan from January to August 2023, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21.7% and 22.9% respectively [4] Trading and Positioning - The market's trading-to-position ratio has remained stable at 0.77, indicating a balanced trading environment without excessive speculation [5] - The increase in both fund inflow and positions suggests a more rational market participation, effectively utilizing the risk management functions of the futures market [5] Asset Management Growth - The scale of futures asset management has also seen rapid growth, reaching 383.97 billion yuan by July 2025, a 22% increase from the previous year [6][7] - The demand for diversified investment strategies among high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors is driving the expansion of futures asset management [7] Future Prospects - The continuous expansion of fund size indicates increased participation from industrial clients and financial institutions, enhancing the pricing and risk management functions of the futures market [7] - Regulatory improvements and product innovations are expected to further stabilize market operations and enhance competitiveness in the futures sector [7]