Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 28 日星期周三 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1 月 27 日，地缘政治紧张，国际原油上涨预期加强，生柴概念再起，植物油板块延 续上涨。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8258 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.39%，日增仓 | | | | | 5418 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8172 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.42%，日增 | | | | | 仓 11101 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9238 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 1.61%，日增 | | | | | 仓 15902 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upward due to factors such as international crude oil price increases, the resurgence of the biodiesel concept, and the inflow of hot money. Palm oil is expected to continue to strengthen, but attention should be paid to the postponed implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy. Vegetable oil long positions should be held. [1][2] - Against the backdrop of abundant global soybean supply, double - meal trading should adopt an intraday approach, and a mid - line bottom - oscillation mindset should be maintained. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 13, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, international crude oil prices rose, and the biodiesel concept resurfaced. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. Among them, the closing price of the main soybean oil contract Y2605 was 7986 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day; the closing price of the main palm oil contract P2605 was 8778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 was 9017 yuan/ton, up 0.41% day - on - day. [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. [1] - Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending regulation depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil. It is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with a monthly volume of 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil. [1] - In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1.3165 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; inventory was 3.05 million tons, within the market's expected range. [1] - From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons. [1] - Indonesia's total biodiesel allocation in 2026 is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. [1] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76%. [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the tense situation between the US and Iran has led to supply concerns and geopolitical conflicts, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise, which has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, the fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed. During the Spring Festival stocking period, soybean oil inventory has decreased, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The full sale of domestic old soybean auctions indicates sufficient future supply, while the customs' tightened soybean clearance policy continues. For palm oil, the expected negative overseas reports have been released, and the market is more influenced by the rise in international crude oil prices and the biodiesel concept. For rapeseed oil, the strong prices of soybean and palm oil have driven up its price. [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [2] - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference. [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 13, the US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report was bearish, causing US soybeans to close lower and dragging down the domestic double - meal market to oscillate weakly. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract M2605 was 2761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 was 2314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% day - on - day. [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3630 - 3790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton. [2] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, rising crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Global soybean production is expected to reach 425.7 million tons. [2][3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons. [3] - As of January 9, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year. [3] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth of sown soybeans was in good condition. [3] - Brazil's soybean exports in December were 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase compared to the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 1.12 billion tons. [3] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons compared to the previous week. [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Internationally, under the pressure of abundant global soybean supply, US soybeans are under pressure and testing the support at 1000 US dollars. Domestically, the spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, and the pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking intention has increased, driving up the price of finished feed. The USDA report's simultaneous increase in US soybean inventory and Brazilian production, along with the year - on - year increase in global rapeseed and rapeseed meal production, jointly suppress the market. [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Mid - line trading: Maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset and conduct intraday trading. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [4] - Arbitrage trading: There are currently no arbitrage strategies. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall report data is neutral, but in the context of the hot sentiment in the overall commodity market, with the settlement of uncertain factors, the U.S. takeover of Venezuelan oil exports, the rapid recovery of international crude oil prices, the resurgence of the biodiesel concept, and hot money flowing quickly into low - priced palm oil. Technically, the palm oil 2605 contract on the daily line level breaks through the downward channel. Macro - level factors drive the financial attributes to stand out, and long positions in palm oil should continue to be held [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Malaysia Palm Oil Production - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1,829,761 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%, higher than the market expectation. The previous value was 1,936,000 tons, and the predicted value was 1,760,000 tons [2]. Malaysia Palm Oil Exports - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,316,522 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%, higher than the market expectation. The previous value was 1,213,000 tons, and the predicted value was 1,250,000 tons [1][2][3]. Malaysia Palm Oil Imports - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil imports were 33,292 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.64%, in line with expectations. The previous value was 23,000 tons, and the predicted value was 30,000 tons [2]. Malaysia Palm Oil Inventory - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 3,050,598 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%, higher than the market expectation. The previous value was 2,835,000 tons, and the predicted value was 2,970,000 tons [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the strengthening of international crude oil, the activation of the biodiesel concept, and the influx of hot money, the overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upwards. For the double - meal sector, the short - term outlook is neutral to bearish, and the mid - line maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 9, international crude oil strengthened, the biodiesel concept was active, and hot money flowed in, causing the vegetable oil sector to rebound. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day, with the exception of the decrease in positions of the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed oil [1] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons, lower than that in October but higher than the same period last year - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026 - From December 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, while exports increased by 1.6% - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 mandatory addition plan in the second half of 2026 - As of the first weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 1.04 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.46% [1][2] Market Logic - Externally, concerns about supply and geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in international crude oil, boosting the strength of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil has broken through the pressure level, palm oil has strengthened due to the rise in international crude oil and the biodiesel concept, and rapeseed oil has recovered its decline due to the strong prices of soybean and palm oil [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upwards. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for each contract. Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] Double - Meal Sector Market Review - On January 9, due to the expectation of the visit of the Canadian government to China and Sino - Canadian negotiations, the market was worried about the entry of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal into China, causing rapeseed meal to fall sharply and dragging down soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal showed a slight increase, while the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed meal showed a decline [2] Important Information - In the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres - As of December 18, 2025, US soybean exports to China increased compared to the previous week but were lower than the same period last year - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season may reach 178.9 million tons - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was 0.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average - As of December 30, 2025, Argentina's soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 increased by 69% year - on - year, and it is estimated to reach a record 112 million tons in 2026 - As of the first weekend of 2026, domestic imported soybean inventory increased slightly, while imported rapeseed inventory remained flat. Domestic soybean meal inventory decreased, and the contract volume increased [2][3] Market Logic - Externally, the overall outlook is neutral to bearish, with strong bottom support for US soybeans but limited rebound space due to Brazil's expected high - yield. Domestically, the spot price is affected by factors such as oil refinery production and downstream demand, and the base price is prone to rise and difficult to fall. The overall double - meal maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset [3] Trading Strategy - Double - meal mid - line maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset, with intraday trading. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for each contract. No arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats Sector**: The international crude oil price has bottomed out and rebounded, reigniting enthusiasm for the bio - diesel concept, and domestic commodity market heat has led to capital inflows into the vegetable oil sector. Different oils have different fundamentals. Soybean oil continues to rebound, palm oil attracts hot money due to crude oil rise despite poor fundamentals, and rapeseed oil's decline is limited by low inventory [5]. - **Protein Sector**: China's purchase of US soybeans stabilizes the US soybean price, while domestic policies and South American production expectations limit the upside of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is under pressure due to the expected return of Canadian rapeseed. Double - meal products will continue the medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats and Protein Logic - **Oils and Fats**: International crude oil rebounds, and domestic policies and fundamentals lead to different trends in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. For example, soybean oil rebounds, palm oil attracts capital, and rapeseed oil's decline is restricted [5]. - **Protein**: China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic policies, and South American production expectations jointly affect the double - meal market, resulting in a medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3.2 Operation Strategies for Three Oils and Two Meals - **Single - side Operation**: For vegetable oils, adopt a bullish approach, buy soybean oil and palm oil on dips. The rise of crude oil determines the upside of vegetable oils, with rapeseed oil being the weakest. For double - meal products, maintain a medium - term震荡 pattern. Specific contract support and resistance levels are provided [7]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategies are available currently [7][8] 3.3 Important Information - Fed interest rate cut probabilities: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 4.6% [9]. - Canadian rapeseed production: The Canadian rapeseed production is 21.8 million tons, higher than market expectations [9]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high, with production of 1.76 million tons, exports of 1.25 million tons, imports of 36,000 tons, and inventory of 2.97 million tons [9]. - China - Canada trade: China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [9]. 3.4 S&P's Adjustment of US Soybean Planting Area - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4% to 84.5 million acres, while the corn planting area will decrease by 3.8% to 95 million acres [10]. 3.5 South American and US Gulf Import Premiums - As of January 9, the South American soybean import premium is 164 cents per bushel, and the US Gulf premium has risen significantly to 220 cents per bushel. Even after tariff cuts, the cost of importing US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans [13]. 3.6 Brazilian New Soybean Sowing and Growth - As of December 20, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean is 97.6%. The expected production is 177.124 million tons, with a planting area of 48.935 million hectares and a yield of 3,620 kg per hectare [16]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Ship - Buying - As of January 6, different monthly ship - buying progress and quantities vary. For example, the 1 - month ship - buying progress is 100% with 4.578 million tons, and the 2 - month ship - buying progress is 87.68% with 8.33 million tons [18]. 3.8 Cofco's Old Soybean Auction - From December 11 to 19, several auctions of imported soybeans were held, with different transaction volumes, prices, and rates. There are also rumors that subsequent auctions will be converted into directional sales [22]. 3.9 Domestic Bean Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory is 6.876 million tons, the soybean meal inventory is 1.135 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory is 1.286 million tons [23]. 3.10 Oil Mill Startup Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the average startup rate of domestic major soybean oil mills is 52.25%, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous week. The current pressing volume is 1.915 million tons, and the expected volume next week is 2.2259 million tons [30]. 3.11 Weekly Transaction of Oils and Meals - This week, the average transaction price of soybean oil is 8,413.42 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 114,300 tons. The average transaction price of soybean meal is 3,182.58 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 1.53 million tons [34]. 3.12 Oils and Meals Basis - As of January 9, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 496 yuan per ton, and the basis of soybean meal's main contract is 364 yuan per ton [38]. 3.13 Malaysian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production is 1.93551 million tons, exports are 1.212814 million tons, inventory is 2.835439 million tons, and imports are 23,176 tons [42]. 3.14 Indonesian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In September, Indonesia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.97% to 2.59 million tons, exports decreased by 36.5% to 2.2 million tons, and production decreased by 22.3% to 4.3 million tons [45]. 3.15 Palm Oil Import and Profit - As of January 9, the palm oil import profit is 168.17 yuan per ton. The import volume in November is 390,000 tons, in December is 345,000 tons, and in January is 250,000 tons. The domestic palm oil inventory is 663,000 tons [49]. 3.16 Palm Oil Transaction, Basis, and Inventory - As of January 9, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is - 2 yuan per ton. This week, the average transaction price is 8,694 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 4,300 tons [55]. 3.17 Rapeseed Import Cost and Profit - As of January 9, the FOB price of Canadian rapeseed in Guangzhou Port in February is 511 Canadian dollars per ton, and the import cost is 4,327 yuan per ton. The import profit is between 1,135.39 and 1,341.70 yuan per ton, but the import volume has decreased significantly [60]. 3.18 Rapeseed Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory is 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 323,000 tons [64]. 3.19 Oil Mill Startup and Pressing of Rapeseed - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the startup rate of domestic major rapeseed oil mills is 0%, and the pressing volume is 0 tons. The expected volume next week is also 0 tons [67]. 3.20 Rapeseed Transaction and Basis - This week, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal is 2,484 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed oil is 10,200 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons [72]. 3.21 CFTC Fund Dynamics - As of January 6, the non - commercial net long positions of CFTC soybeans are 104,770 lots, a decrease of 17,041 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean meal are 14,212 lots, a decrease of 11,977 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean oil are - 12,458 lots, a decrease of 10,084 lots [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From January 5 - 9, 2026, in the domestic futures market, 60 commodity futures varieties rose, 1 remained flat, and 21 declined. In the stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all rose, while in the treasury bond futures, 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds all fell [1]. - Each sector in the futures market showed different trends. The agricultural products sector had mixed performances; the non - ferrous and precious metals sector had significant short - term fluctuations; the black sector was generally volatile; the energy and chemical sector had various situations such as strong expectations but weak reality for some products; and the financial futures sector had the stock index in an upward trend and the treasury bond futures showing a short - term shock [6][11][13][15][18]. Summary by Catalog 1. Agricultural Products Futures - **Vegetable Oils**: This week, the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil rose by 1.68% and 1.14% respectively, while the main contract of rapeseed oil fell by 0.50%. The vegetable oil sector showed a slightly differentiated upward trend due to various factors such as holiday备货, import policies, and international oil price fluctuations [6]. - **Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The main contract of soybean meal rose 1.35%, and that of rapeseed meal fell 1.14%. The double - meal showed a differentiated trend, with soybean meal being stronger and rapeseed meal weaker due to customs policies and market expectations [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar showed a strong consolidation. The market is mainly concerned about the sugar production in China, India, and Thailand. With the start of the Spring Festival stocking, there is still pressure on sugar supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be a low - level range shock [7]. - **Red Dates**: The price of red dates slightly increased. During the Spring Festival stocking season, the abundant supply suppresses the price. The short - term trend is expected to be a shock, and the medium - to - long - term trend may decline [7]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton's upward channel was blocked after breaking through 15,000. Due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area and the early shutdown plan of textile enterprises, the short - term upward momentum may weaken, and the market is in a shock adjustment state [8]. - **Apples**: The apple market in different production areas showed a differentiated trend. The overall de - stocking speed is lower than last year, and the market is mainly concerned about the Spring Festival stocking demand [8][9]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The weak demand suppresses the price increase, while the low inventory limits the decline. The main contract is expected to maintain a low - level shock [10]. 2. Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Shanghai gold had a small increase with horizontal fluctuations, and Shanghai silver had a large increase followed by a large decline. Due to factors such as margin adjustments, index weight reset, and geopolitical risks, the short - term fluctuations of precious metals intensified [11]. 3. Black Sector - **Overall Situation**: The black sector showed an overall fluctuating trend, with iron ore being stronger than other varieties [13]. - **Coking Coal and Steel**: Coking coal led the rise in the first half of the week, and rebar hit a new high and then corrected. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, the inventory increased seasonally, and the consumption decreased in the off - season. The rebound space depends on the winter storage intensity [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore hit a new high and then corrected. The daily average pig iron output increased, and the supply is expected to increase. There is a risk of price correction after the end of market replenishment [13]. - **Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The double - coking showed a significant rebound and then a high - level correction. The fundamentals have no major contradictions, and the short - term is affected by supply - side rumors and winter storage expectations [14]. - **Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: The double - silicon first rose and then fell. After the news was falsified, it returned to the fundamentals. The short - term bottom support is strong due to high - level production and winter storage expectations [14]. 4. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol rose 2.6%. It still faces the situation of strong expectations but weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and a bullish approach is recommended [15]. - **Urea**: Urea rose 1.6%. It showed a strong shock due to reserve demand and peak - season expectations. The medium - term price center may move up, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: Bottle chips rose 0.4%. The supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival. The price may be suppressed, and attention should be paid to light - position buying on dips [16]. - **Rubber Series**: - **Natural Rubber**: It first rose and then fell, with the price center moving up. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover. The inventory increased this week, and it may enter a consolidation state next week [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR main contract continued to strengthen. The cost support is significant, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The demand is expected to rebound slightly. There is a risk of correction, and long positions should be held with caution [17]. 5. Financial Futures Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After the New Year's Day, funds flowed into the stock market, and the growth - style indexes were strong. The stock index is in a spring offensive, and long positions are recommended to be held [18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a bottom - hunting rebound. The short - term may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to factors such as the decline of palm oil and weak international crude oil, and sufficient domestic oil supply, palm oil should hold short - positions, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][2]. - For double - meal products, with the optimistic expectation of US soybean exports, rising import costs, and low domestic rapeseed raw material inventory, double - meal continues to rebound. Hold existing long - positions, do not chase new long - positions, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Market Review - On October 28, affected by palm oil, the overall vegetable oil market weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8,182 yuan/ton, down 0.63% day - on - day; the main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 8,958 yuan/ton, down 1.56% day - on - day; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9,730 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices fell about 2% on October 28. - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to about 56 million tons. - Brazil may not increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026. - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period in September. - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.631 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.90% [1][2]. Market Logic - Internationally, weak crude oil weakens the biodiesel concept, and the optimistic expectation of US soybean exports to China leads to the liquidation of the previous buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage, pressuring US soybean oil. Indonesia's increased palm oil production and Malaysia's poor export data cause palm oil to fall. Domestically, sufficient oil supply, rising inventory, and a decline in palm oil drag down the overall vegetable oil market [2]. Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, hold short - positions in palm oil, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil will fluctuate. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Review - On October 28, supported by low rapeseed inventory and rising external costs, double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 2,975 yuan/ton, up 1.47% day - on - day; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2,396 yuan/ton, up 2.61% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Last week, the US did not export soybeans to China. - As of Friday, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state reached more than 60.05% of the expected area. - China's soybean imports in September reached 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8%. - Trump's administration may announce a 15 - billion - dollar plan to rescue US farmers. - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons by the end of October. - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 7.912 million tons, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.48% [2][3]. Market Logic - Internationally, the optimistic expectation of US soybean exports continues to rise. Domestically, soybean meal inventory has exceeded one million tons, and the domestic rapeseed raw material inventory has dropped to zero, causing the rapeseed meal market to rise [3]. Trading Strategy - In single - side trading, be cautious with short - term long - positions, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long - term. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [3].