房地产/房地产开发 新城控股（601155.SH） 商管收入双位数增长，融资成本明显下降 2025 年 09 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 14.83 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 16.80/9.16 | | 总市值(亿元) | 334.51 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 334.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 22.56 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.56 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 45.29 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 新城控股 沪深300 相关研究报告 《商管经营持续稳健，母公司重启美 元 债 融 资 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.6.16 公司 2025 上半实现营业收入 221.0 亿元，同比-34.8%；实现归母净利润 8.95 亿 元，同比-32.1%；实现扣非归母净利润 9.47 亿元，同比增长-28.2%；实现经营性 净现金流 2.86 ...

报告期内，大悦城财务安全稳健、资金结构持续优化、融资成本进一步下降。报告期内，经营活动净现 金流26.87亿元，同比增长38.15%。上半年公司新增借款平均成本2.85%；上半年综合融资成本为 3.64%，较上年末下降42个基点。报告期，中诚信国际信用评级有限公司、中证鹏元资信评估股份有限 公司维持公司AAA主体信用评级。 8月29日，大悦城（SZ000031）发布2025年中期财报。报告期内，公司实现营业收入152.31亿元，上半 年综合毛利率36.35%，较上年同期22.59%上升13.76个百分点；毛利额55.36亿元，同比增加19.03亿元， 同比增长52.40%。受此影响，报告期内，公司实现净利润7.48亿元，同比增加7.10亿元，显示出强劲的 盈利改善能力；归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.09亿元，同比增加4.72亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 25.11 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion yuan, with an 8% increase year-on-year. The comprehensive gross profit margin remained stable at 16.2% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 16.2%, unchanged from the previous year, with the development business gross profit margin increasing to 12%, up by 1 percentage point year-on-year. The combined expense ratio for sales, management, and finance decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 13.0% [2] - The slower profit growth compared to revenue growth was primarily due to a decline in other income and earnings by 240 million yuan, totaling 1.24 billion yuan, and an increase in income tax expenses by 710 million yuan, totaling 1.07 billion yuan [2] Sales and Investment Performance - The company demonstrated strong sales performance, with a sales revenue of 61.8 billion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The newly added land value reached 79.4 billion yuan, up by 1509% year-on-year, with an investment intensity of 73%, ranking first among the top 10 real estate companies [2] - The company focused on core cities for land acquisition, adding 18 new plots with a total construction area of 1.45 million square meters, of which 70% is located in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou [2] Financing and Dividend - The company's financing costs have been decreasing, with an average bond issuance cost of 2.57% this year, down by 39 basis points from the previous year. The latest mid-term note issuance rate in July was 2.3%, continuing to decline since the beginning of the year [3] - The company declared a mid-term dividend of 0.03 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 34%, resulting in an annualized dividend yield of 3.8% based on the current stock price [3] Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast and target price, with expected EPS of 0.09, 0.10, and 0.13 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The buy rating and target price of 2.20 HKD remain unchanged [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong sales performance and significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, positioning itself as a leading player in the real estate industry, particularly in the Hangzhou market [1][2][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance and Financial Results - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved sales of 52.75 billion yuan, ranking 10th among national real estate companies and 1st among private enterprises [1]. - The company reported operating income of 45.449 billion yuan, an increase of 87.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.692 billion yuan, up 120% year-on-year, with attributable net profit of 1.853 billion yuan, rising 58.87% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.24%, an increase of 2.67 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Asset and Debt Management - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's total assets were 240.644 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.12% from the end of the previous year, while net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 6.90% to 29.426 billion yuan [2]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio, excluding pre-receipts, was 57.8%, indicating an optimized debt structure [3]. - The company’s interest-bearing liabilities decreased significantly, with a net debt ratio of 7.03% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.14 times, ensuring effective coverage of short-term debts [3]. Group 3: Strategic Development and Land Acquisition - The company added 16 new land reserve projects during the reporting period, with a total construction area of 1.0067 million square meters and total land costs of 33.272 billion yuan, focusing on the Hangzhou market [3]. - The land reserves are concentrated in high-quality areas, with 73% located in Hangzhou, providing a strong foundation for sustainable development [3]. Group 4: Financing and Liquidity - The company has seen a continuous decline in financing costs, with an average cost of 3.1% as of June 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The total bank credit limit was 129.02 billion yuan, with 76% remaining available, indicating strong liquidity [4]. Group 5: Business Diversification - The company is expanding its construction business and has added a new project in Nanjing, with a construction area of approximately 57,000 square meters [5]. - The rental business includes approximately 490,500 square meters of commercial properties, generating rental income of 200 million yuan during the reporting period [5]. - The company’s first elderly care project has achieved a 90% occupancy rate, indicating successful operations in the healthcare sector [5]. Group 6: Market Outlook and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan believe the company’s strong market position and financial health will provide significant sales and profit elasticity in the future [6]. - Ping An Securities highlights the company's clear strategic planning and robust financial status, positioning it as a leading private enterprise in the real estate sector [7].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the profit forecast for CITIC Financial Assets (02799) for 2025 and 2026 by 16% and 20% to 11.5 billion and 11.4 billion respectively, due to growth in equity business income and declining funding costs [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast and Performance - The company expects a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 12.5% to 16.3% for 1H25, estimating net profit to be around 6 billion to 6.2 billion [2] - Excluding the impact of the financial leasing company, the year-on-year growth is projected to be about 23.9% to 28.2% [2] - The company aims to achieve its strategic goal of "significant improvement in quality and efficiency" by the end of 2025 and to become an industry benchmark by 2026-2027 [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth and Investment - The expected profit growth is attributed to increased income from equity business and a decrease in financing costs [2] - The company has increased its holdings in Bank of China and China Everbright Bank, with a significant rise in main business income [2] - The company has confirmed a one-time investment income of 17.9 billion to 20.6 billion for 1H25, compared to a loss of 0.1 billion in 1H24 [2] Group 3: Financing Costs and Risk Management - The company has strengthened its financing capabilities, with financing costs decreasing year-on-year [3] - The estimated financing cost for 2H24 is 3.63%, down 20 basis points year-on-year and 17 basis points compared to 1H24 [3] - The company has reported an increase in impairment provisions, with a total of approximately 21.8 billion for 1H25, enhancing its risk resistance capacity [3] Group 4: MSCI Inclusion and Fund Inflows - The company will be included in the MSCI China Index, with adjustments effective after August 26, potentially attracting passive fund inflows of approximately 110 million USD [3] Group 5: Financing Authorization - The company's shareholders have authorized the board to issue new shares, with a limit of 20% of the total number of issued domestic and H shares, valid until the next shareholders' meeting in 2024 or the end of the 2025 meeting [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the increase in demand deposits reflects the gradual effect of previous interest rate adjustment policies, which is beneficial for promoting consumption and investment [1][2] - In the first five months of 2025, the social financing scale increment in Guangdong reached 1.33 trillion yuan, with direct financing's proportion continuing to rise [1] - The increase in local government bond financing amounted to 239.9 billion yuan, while corporate bond financing increased by 125.2 billion yuan, primarily due to lower bond financing costs [1] Group 2 - As of June 2025, the balance of loans in Guangdong reached 29.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, marking a continuous increase for three months [1] - The average weighted interest rate for newly issued general loans in Guangdong was 3.04% in June 2025, a decrease of 38 basis points year-on-year [2] - The balance of deposits in Guangdong reached 37.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, indicating a significant increase in demand deposits [2]