1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains tense, and oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile with significant geopolitical risk premiums [2]. - Precious metals are in a stage of sharp fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see until the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper market is in a game between long - term narratives and weak supply - demand realities, and the price may be pressured first and then rise [4]. - Aluminum and related products face adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to key support levels [5][6][7]. - Zinc, lead, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations, and the price trends are affected by factors such as demand, cost, and inventory [8][9][10]. - For various chemical products such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, and plastics, the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and most are in a state of shock or weak operation [13][14][28]. - In the steel and iron ore market, the demand is weak, and the prices are under pressure [15][16]. - For agricultural products such as soybeans, grains, and livestock products, the prices are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade [36][39][40]. - The stock index is expected to continue to recover, and the bond market may continue to be strong in the short term [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran talks continue, but the deadlock may persist. Brent oil prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical risk premiums are significant [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a volatile stage, and the market is waiting for US economic data to assess the prospects of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Copper**: The price rebounds with precious metals. The market is in a game between long - term and short - term factors, and the price may be pressured first and then rise [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its products face adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increases, and the prices of casting aluminum alloy and alumina are affected by different factors [5][6][7]. - **Zinc, Lead, and Nickel**: Zinc has supply - demand imbalances during the Spring Festival, and the price has support at 24,000 yuan/ton. Lead has weak demand and cost - side support. Nickel has increasing inventory and is mainly affected by policy sentiment [8][9][10]. - **Tin**: The price continues to rebound, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the MA20 daily line and the high volatility of the outer market [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a low - level shock, with a slowdown in de - stocking and high short - term uncertainty [12]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The futures market is inactive, and the spot fundamentals lack drivers. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is under pressure, affected by the performance of polycrystalline silicon futures and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction targets [14]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and heating demand [22]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is limited, and the consumption shows a slight improvement. The unilateral trend is mainly affected by crude oil, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong [23]. - **Urea**: The daily production is high, and the market is supported by demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and strengthen after the Spring Festival [24]. - **Methanol**: The coastal demand is weak, and the port inventory is high. The domestic production starts to increase, and the market may gradually de - stock after the Spring Festival [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic production increases, and the inventory is basically stable. The supply - demand pattern is expected to improve around the Spring Festival [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand structure weakens before the Spring Festival, and the social inventory will accumulate seasonally after the festival [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, but the pre - festival supply is tight. The demand for polyolefins is weak as factories enter the holiday [28]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a narrow - range shock, with inventory changes and cost support. Caustic soda is affected by cost and downstream demand and is expected to operate near the cost [29]. - **PX and PTA**: PX has more long - term opportunities in the second half of the year, but the current demand is weak. PTA's load increases slightly, and attention should be paid to the post - festival balance [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory increases, but the accumulation slows down. It is expected to improve in the second quarter, but the long - term is under pressure [31]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but the downstream is weak. Bottle - chip has a low load and inventory, and attention should be paid to the post - festival inventory [32]. Metals and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [17][18]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices are affected by supply - demand imbalances and policy expectations [19][20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot price is stable, and the shipping companies' price increase is more for guiding expectations. The near - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the far - month contract is under pressure [21]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of US soybeans rises, and the domestic soybean meal futures are weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weak in the short term [36]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are in a state of reducing positions and fluctuating. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by policies [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: It rises strongly, affected by policy auctions and external market prices [38]. - **Corn**: The sales progress is 61%, and the price is weak. The futures are expected to be weak in the short term [39]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is falling, and there is supply pressure after the Spring Festival. The medium - long - term price may have a low point [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures have a strategy of waiting for the post - Spring Festival low point to configure long positions [41]. - **Cotton**: The domestic and foreign markets have different situations. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and it is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic production situations are different. The short - term price is under pressure [43]. - **Apples**: The price is oscillatory, and the market focuses on demand and de - stocking speed [44]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, and the low inventory provides support. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low [46]. Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rises, and the index futures also rise. The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to continue to recover, and attention should be paid to the performance of technology - related sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures rise, and the short - term strong trend is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to curve trading opportunities [48].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and policy adjustments, particularly in response to the upcoming phased reduction of export tax rebates for battery products [1][3]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 has seen significant price increases, breaking through key thresholds of 150,000 CNY/ton, 160,000 CNY/ton, and 170,000 CNY/ton, with a closing price of 156,100 CNY/ton on January 12, 2026, and 166,900 CNY/ton on January 13, 2026, marking a cumulative increase of 37.25% since the end of 2025 [1][2]. - The spot market also reflects strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices reaching 153,400 CNY/ton and 163,900 CNY/ton on January 12 and 13, 2026, respectively, indicating increases of 9.89% and 6.81% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rebound in lithium prices since the second half of 2025 is attributed to increased downstream demand and improved supply-demand relationships, with supply disruptions and rapid demand release being key factors [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates for battery products is expected to accelerate the "rush to export" behavior among battery manufacturers, leading to a concentrated release of short-term demand for lithium carbonate [3][4]. Industry Response - The lithium battery supply chain has begun to proactively adjust to the anticipated changes in export tax policy, with downstream battery manufacturers accelerating production schedules and requiring prompt supply from cathode material producers [4]. - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2026 due to the "rush to export" phenomenon, contrasting with typical seasonal declines [4]. Strategic Adjustments - Some cathode material producers are negotiating pricing mechanisms with downstream clients to mitigate cost pressures, with strategies including direct supply of lithium carbonate by clients and linking settlement prices to futures prices [6][7]. - The anticipated tightening of lithium carbonate inventory due to proactive replenishment by downstream industries is expected to support prices in the short term [7]. Long-term Outlook - The gradual reduction of export tax rebates is projected to indirectly increase the overall export costs of battery cells, potentially leading to an earlier release of some overseas demand into 2026 [6][7]. - The industry is expected to shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological upgrades and product performance improvements to enhance core competitiveness [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the industry entered a pattern of inventory accumulation. Although the fundamentals weakened in the short - term, the expected "rush to export" might boost the off - season demand, and the lithium price was expected to remain in a state where it was easier to rise than to fall [1][4] - Unilaterally, it was expected to fluctuate at a high level with the center of gravity moving up, and the price range of the futures main contract was estimated to be between 135,000 and 155,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, a long - short spread strategy was recommended as the "rush to export" demand might drive the near - term contracts stronger. For hedging, due to large fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises were advised to use options tools to hedge at appropriate times [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - This week, lithium carbonate futures contracts continued the upward trend after the holiday. The 2601 contract closed at 138,700 yuan/ton, up 18,700 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2605 contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton, up 21,840 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 21,500 yuan/ton week - on - week to 140,000 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2601 contract) rose 2,800 yuan/ton to + 1,300 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium and discount quotation was - 1,510 yuan/ton, strengthening 230 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2601 and 2605 contracts was - 4,720 yuan/ton, weakening 3,140 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 2. Supply Side of Lithium Salt Upstream - Lithium Ore - Policy: From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - refund rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax - refund for battery products will be cancelled [2] - Supply: The domestic weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,535 tons, a slight increase of 115 tons from last week. The output in January was expected to remain at a high level. In the first week of 2026, the shipment of Australian lithium ore was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons month - on - month, and the shipment of Chilean lithium salt was 8,640 tons, a decrease of 1,228 tons month - on - month [2] 3. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Mid - stream - Lithium Salt Products - Demand: The production schedule of cathode materials in January was adjusted upwards, but there were still uncertainties. The production schedule of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 6.5% month - on - month, and that of ternary materials was basically flat month - on - month. The price of battery cells increased, but the increase was still less than that of upstream raw materials, and the inhibitory effect on terminal demand needed further transmission. The domestic demand for new energy vehicles remained weak. In December, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.563 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The demand for energy storage continued to grow at a high rate. In December, the winning bid volume was 59.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 87.7%. At the beginning of January, many enterprises launched centralized procurement tenders [2] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased again. The industry inventory was 109,942 tons, an increase of 337 tons from last week. The upstream and mid - stream accumulated inventory, while the downstream continued to destock. The speed of new futures warehouse receipts increased this week, with 5,079 new registrations and a total of 25,360 lots [3] 4. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Downstream - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report presents multiple charts related to the downstream consumption side, including the monthly output and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of lithium batteries, as well as the import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided in the text [29][30][31]