1月7日：上交易日周二（1月6日）：国际黄金继续反弹收涨，稳于中轨及短期均线之上，多头继续占据 优势，也令后市有继续走强刷新历史新高的预期。虽有高空缺口待回补，但参考2024年4月高开的缺口 仍然存在，故此周内如回补不了，后市就难以或不会回补，故此，在跌回4400美元下方前，仍保持看涨 预期不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4448.62美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4427.94美元，之后一路震荡回升， 延续到盘尾时段录得日内高点4497.21美元，最终持稳收于4494.53美元，日振幅69.27美元，收涨45.91美 元，涨幅1.03%。 影响上，受到重回短期均线上方的跟进买盘支撑，以及地缘政治紧张局势引发的强劲避险需求，特朗普 政府谋划获取格陵兰岛等，再加上美联储米兰呼吁今年降息超100基点，增强降息前景等等，继续助力 金价走强。 展望今日周三（1月7日）：国际黄金开盘短暂走强后有所转弱，受到多头的获利了结，以及美元指数昨 日大幅走强，早盘开盘维持动力而限制了其反弹需求。 不过，整体来看，金价的方向依然是保持看涨上行不变，牛市前景依然良好。 日内将可关注美国12月ADP就业人数（万人）、美国12月ISM非 ...

原油周五在清淡且动荡的交易中小幅走低，供应过剩前景以及美股下跌给市场带来压力。铜价创下两个 月最大跌幅，也受到了美国科技股抛售的拖累。黄金价格收窄盘中涨幅，美联储官员的讲话令投资者对 降息前景变得更加谨慎。 原油：油价在震荡交易中小幅走低 WTI跌至5月以来最低点 油价周五在震荡走势中小幅走低，WTI原油跌至5月以来最低水平，美国股市走软加剧了市场对供应过 剩的看空情绪。 WTI原油收于每桶58美元下方，为5月份以来最低水平；全球基准的布伦特原油则跌至约两个月来的最 低点。 柴油期货下跌约1.4%，在周五对整个石油板块构成最大拖累，而美国股市的抛售加剧了油价的跌势。 临近圣诞节和新年假期，市场交投清淡，再加上一年来盈利艰难，交易员在承担风险方面更加谨慎，也 共同促成了这种震荡走势。 市场对明年供应将超过需求的共识日益增强，将原油价格推向自10月中以来所处区间的下沿。而且，一 些交易员正押注油价将进一步下跌，根据周五公布的数据，对布伦特原油的看空押注升至七周高位。 1月交割的WTI原油期货合约在纽约市场下跌0.28%，收于57.44美元。 2月布伦特原油下跌0.26%，收于每桶61.12美元。 基本金属：铜价下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street banks predict that the U.S. stock market will achieve another year of double-digit growth by 2026, despite recent investor concerns over large tech companies' spending plans and potential AI bubble risks [1][3]. Group 1: S&P 500 Index Predictions - The average forecast from nine major investment banks suggests that the S&P 500 index will rise to over 7500 points by the end of 2026, representing an approximate 10% increase from current levels [1][3]. - The index closed at 6857 points recently, having reached a historical high of 6920 points in October [1][3]. - This growth would mark the seventh year of double-digit increases in the past eight years, although the growth rate is expected to slow compared to the 16.6% increase seen in 2025 and the average growth over the past decade [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Analysts believe that the market has moved past the recent pullback caused by AI valuation concerns, supported by President Trump's tax cuts and expectations of interest rate cuts [7]. - Morgan Stanley analysts project the S&P 500 index will reach 7800 points by the end of next year, citing a combination of loose fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies, along with favorable conditions for AI [7]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts the S&P 500 index will hit 8000 points by 2026, indicating a similar growth rate to 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings growth [8]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends - Outside the U.S., other stock markets are also expected to rise by 2026, though at a slower pace than U.S. markets. The average forecast suggests the European Stoxx 600 index will increase by 6.4% to around 615 points, while Japan's Topix index is expected to rise by 5.6% to approximately 3590 points [9].

12月4日：上交易日周三（12月3日）：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收跌，相对于周二走势，有暗示后市将横 盘震荡整理的预期，但方向上，目前仍还是偏向看涨上行不变。 再一方面，本周还有美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率，以及下周在美联储利率决议后再公布的PPI通胀数 据，和美国11月失业率非农数据，以及美国11月CPI通胀数据等等，所以市场等待的不是12月降息前 景，而是明年的降息前景，故此，当下的调整等待也属正常反应。 再者，正常情况下，金价的反弹一般会在降息当周面临遇阻行情，所以，当下在临近下周降息会议落地 之前，表现震荡也属正常。 张尧浠认为，在下周利率会议落地之后，市场将再度回归到明年的降息周期前景之中，那么从本周到下 周的调整则可视为入场的时机和节点。因为，不管是11月非农数据和CPI数据在12月降息会议之前还是 之后公布，区别就是先涨还是后涨，其美国政府的停摆，也已经影响到了11月初的经济，故此，大概率 上，11月非农和CPI将会支撑后续的降息前景。 再加上，美联储也即将换任更加鸽派的主席，都将支撑明年的更加宽松的降息前景。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4206.58美元/盎司，短暂走强遇阻4230美元附近后，回 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, raising concerns about its stability and potential further declines, with analysts warning of a possible retest of the $70,000 support level if the U.S. stock market continues to decline [1][4]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, erasing 30% of its gains for the year, with a peak of $126,000 on October 6, 2023, now down approximately 25% [1]. - Ethereum has also faced challenges, with a decline exceeding 35% from its August highs [1]. Liquidity Crisis - The recent downturn is characterized as a "two-phase decline," starting with macroeconomic risks and followed by a liquidity crisis that has led to increased volatility in the Bitcoin market [3]. - Following the October 10 crash, liquidity in the Bitcoin market has sharply decreased, causing even small trades to result in significant price movements [3]. Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is worsening, with reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and a government shutdown impacting economic data releases, further dampening market sentiment [3]. - The tightening of liquidity is particularly affecting Bitcoin ETFs, which previously attracted over $100 billion but are now facing capital outflows [3]. Technical and Fundamental Pressures - Concerns persist that if the stock market experiences further profit-taking, cryptocurrencies may face a second wave of concentrated selling [4]. - Analysts warn that Bitcoin is still exhibiting characteristics of a risk asset, and further price declines are likely as uncertainties around AI valuations and interest rate cuts loom [4]. Historical Context and Investor Sentiment - There is apprehension among investors about a potential repeat of historical cycles, leading to preemptive market withdrawals to avoid significant downturns [5]. - However, some analysts believe the current sell-off is different from past crises, lacking systemic failures or credit contagion, and expect Bitcoin to reach new highs within 12 to 18 months once conditions stabilize [6]. Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are encouraged to view current price levels as attractive entry points, with some firms reporting record client investments in cryptocurrencies [6]. - Retail investors are advised to adopt dollar-cost averaging strategies and focus on understanding the fundamentals of Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than reacting to market headlines [6].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the prospects of a rate cut in December led to significant currency fluctuations, particularly affecting the euro and the pound against the dollar [1]. Currency Movements - The euro declined by 0.44% against the dollar, trading at 1.1601 [1]. - The British pound fell by 0.57% against the dollar, reaching 1.3195, with a rapid increase in the decline during Powell's remarks [1]. - The US dollar appreciated by 0.83% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8001, showing a consistent upward trend throughout the day, particularly during Powell's press conference [1].

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices reached a historic high for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by escalating trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, leading investors to flock to this safe-haven asset. The market's increasing bets on interest rate cuts further fueled the upward trend [1]. Group 1 - Spot gold prices touched a record high of $4,256.21 per ounce during trading [1]. - OANDA analyst Zain Vawda indicated that gold's trajectory will depend on the interest rate cut outlook leading into 2026 and the developments in trade tensions, which could catalyze gold prices to surpass $5,000 per ounce [1]. - Vawda noted that short-term pullbacks in gold prices may be temporary, as bullish investors often re-enter the market during such corrections [1].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintains a cautious stance on future interest rate cuts, indicating potential risks associated with both inflation and employment [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - Powell suggests that excessive rate cuts could hinder inflation control, potentially forcing the Fed to raise rates again [1] - He does not provide a clear signal regarding a rate cut in the upcoming October meeting [1] - **Market Impact** - The Dollar Index (DXY) experiences a slight increase, rising to 97.5 [1] - **Economic Risks** - Powell highlights a "dual risk" concerning employment and inflation, emphasizing the need for careful consideration in monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dovish guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may exacerbate the weakness of the US dollar, potentially boosting Asian stock markets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of Asian stock markets this year has primarily been driven by local capital [1] - A renewed decline in the US dollar could stimulate capital flows from the US to emerging markets in search of diversified allocations [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Analysts note that improvements in fundamentals and earnings have significantly contributed to the recent strength of Asian stock markets [1] - Due to trade agreements, earnings expectations for most Asian markets have been notably revised upward for the coming year [1] Group 3: Risks - If the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that the median interest rate forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, or if Powell downplays the prospect of rate cuts, this could pose a major risk for Asian markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish, supported by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential dovish monetary policy from the U.S. government [1][3]. Price Movements - On August 27, gold opened at $3,393.50 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,373.48, and then rebounded to a high of $3,398.30, closing at $3,396.82, marking a daily increase of $3.32 or 0.098% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a triangular consolidation pattern, with a bias towards upward breakout in the coming days [3]. Market Influences - Concerns regarding President Trump's attempts to dismiss a Federal Reserve board member have heightened market anxiety about the Fed's independence, which supports gold prices [3]. - The market anticipates a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, which is likely to further benefit gold [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has been in a bullish trend since last year, with recent adjustments likely leading to another upward movement [7]. - Key support levels to watch are around $3,270 and $3,220, which may present buying opportunities [7]. - The daily chart indicates that gold remains above the midline and 60-day moving averages, with bullish momentum prevailing despite some indicators suggesting a potential pullback [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, support levels are identified at $3,382 and $3,361, while resistance levels are at $3,407 and $3,418 [10]. - Silver support levels are at $38.35 and $38.15, with resistance at $39.00 and $39.20 [10].