流动性危机引发连锁反应 机构人士将这轮急跌拆解为"两段式下行"： 比特币跌破100000美元大关引发市场震荡，这一全球最具动能驱动特征的交易品种面临严峻考验。分析师警告称，若美股继续下 跌，比特币可能重新测试70000美元支撑位，甚至短暂跌破该水平。 上周五，比特币一度跌破95,000美元抹平年内30%的涨幅。与10月6日创下的历史高位126,000美元相比，比特币短短一个月已蒸发约 25%。以太坊同样难逃大势，距离8月高点的跌幅扩大至逾35%。 周一，比特币反弹，但市场普遍在问：这是又一次"洗盘式"回调，还是新一轮深度熊市的开端？ 加密货币交易平台BTSE首席运营官Jeff Mei警告，比特币仍表现出典型的风险资产特征。随着AI估值受到质疑、降息前景存疑，比 特币"价格进一步下跌可能在所难免"。 Hex Trust的Quaglini直言："我们必须诚实面对：这轮调整可能尚未结束。如果股市继续下跌，我们很容易重新测试70000美元低 位，甚至可能短暂跌破"。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，Bitwise Asset Management的首席投资官Matthew Hougan认为，"人们担心四年周期可能会重演，他们不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the prospects of a rate cut in December led to significant currency fluctuations, particularly affecting the euro and the pound against the dollar [1]. Currency Movements - The euro declined by 0.44% against the dollar, trading at 1.1601 [1]. - The British pound fell by 0.57% against the dollar, reaching 1.3195, with a rapid increase in the decline during Powell's remarks [1]. - The US dollar appreciated by 0.83% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.8001, showing a consistent upward trend throughout the day, particularly during Powell's press conference [1].

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices reached a historic high for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by escalating trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, leading investors to flock to this safe-haven asset. The market's increasing bets on interest rate cuts further fueled the upward trend [1]. Group 1 - Spot gold prices touched a record high of $4,256.21 per ounce during trading [1]. - OANDA analyst Zain Vawda indicated that gold's trajectory will depend on the interest rate cut outlook leading into 2026 and the developments in trade tensions, which could catalyze gold prices to surpass $5,000 per ounce [1]. - Vawda noted that short-term pullbacks in gold prices may be temporary, as bullish investors often re-enter the market during such corrections [1].

美联储主席鲍威尔在昨日讲话中对未来降息前景保持谨慎态度，美元指数（DXY）小幅上涨至97.5。鲍 威尔指出，若过度降息可能导致通胀治理未竟，美联储未来或被迫再次加息；但若利率维持过高过久， 则可能削弱劳动力市场。他强调当前面临就业与通胀"双重风险"，并未就10月议息会议是否降息给出明 确信号。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dovish guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may exacerbate the weakness of the US dollar, potentially boosting Asian stock markets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of Asian stock markets this year has primarily been driven by local capital [1] - A renewed decline in the US dollar could stimulate capital flows from the US to emerging markets in search of diversified allocations [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Analysts note that improvements in fundamentals and earnings have significantly contributed to the recent strength of Asian stock markets [1] - Due to trade agreements, earnings expectations for most Asian markets have been notably revised upward for the coming year [1] Group 3: Risks - If the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that the median interest rate forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, or if Powell downplays the prospect of rate cuts, this could pose a major risk for Asian markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish, supported by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential dovish monetary policy from the U.S. government [1][3]. Price Movements - On August 27, gold opened at $3,393.50 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,373.48, and then rebounded to a high of $3,398.30, closing at $3,396.82, marking a daily increase of $3.32 or 0.098% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a triangular consolidation pattern, with a bias towards upward breakout in the coming days [3]. Market Influences - Concerns regarding President Trump's attempts to dismiss a Federal Reserve board member have heightened market anxiety about the Fed's independence, which supports gold prices [3]. - The market anticipates a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, which is likely to further benefit gold [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has been in a bullish trend since last year, with recent adjustments likely leading to another upward movement [7]. - Key support levels to watch are around $3,270 and $3,220, which may present buying opportunities [7]. - The daily chart indicates that gold remains above the midline and 60-day moving averages, with bullish momentum prevailing despite some indicators suggesting a potential pullback [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, support levels are identified at $3,382 and $3,361, while resistance levels are at $3,407 and $3,418 [10]. - Silver support levels are at $38.35 and $38.15, with resistance at $39.00 and $39.20 [10].

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.25, while spot silver opened at $38.56/oz and is currently around $38.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9338 yuan/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9366 yuan/kg [1] - On August 25, the dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 98.43, while spot silver fell by 0.69% to $38.55/oz. This decline in silver is attributed to a decrease in optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the dollar index [1] Economic Data - The latest data shows that SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,288.82 tons [2] - Economic indicators released include a 0.6% month-over-month decline in new home sales for July, which was below the expected 0.5% increase. Additionally, the Dallas Fed's business activity index for August came in at -1.8, lower than the expected 0.9, raising concerns about the health of the US economy [3] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $38.87, reached a high of $38.991, and then experienced a strong pullback, with a low of $38.524. The daily close was at $38.543, forming a long upper shadow on a bearish candlestick. Following a reduction in long positions from $37.8, the strategy is to hold positions at $38, with targets set at $38.5, $38.35, and $38.2 for potential exits [4]

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has eased, leading to a focus on upcoming U.S. PCE data for clues on Federal Reserve policy, which has limited the bullish outlook for gold prices [1] Price Movement - On August 25, gold opened at $3,371.93 per ounce, fluctuated between a low of $3,359.65 and a high of $3,375.94, and closed at $3,365.52, marking a decline of $6.71 or 0.2% [3] - The following day, gold continued to show weakness due to a stronger U.S. dollar, but there are still support levels that could lead to a potential rebound [3][6] Dollar Index - The dollar index has returned to a bullish trend, with increased momentum, although it remains below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential upward movement towards the 200-week moving average, which could limit gold's bullish potential [5] Market Indicators - The market is expected to focus on various U.S. economic indicators, including July durable goods orders and consumer confidence index, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [6] - Historical patterns suggest that after a period of consolidation, gold prices are likely to rise again, despite some bearish signals in the indicators [8] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,270 and $3,220, which could present buying opportunities if prices decline [8] - Resistance levels to watch include $3,386 and $3,400, with a potential target of $3,450 for upward movement [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a volatile adjustment trend, with a focus on potential support levels for a bullish outlook in the near future [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices fluctuated, starting at $3349.33 and reaching a high of $3438.67 before dropping to a low of $3325.05, ultimately closing at $3338.50, reflecting a weekly decline of $10.83 or 0.32% [1]. - The market saw a significant weekly volatility of $113.62, indicating a turbulent trading environment [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing strong technical resistance, which has contributed to its recent decline [3][4]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential bearish trend, with risks of a drop to $3000 or $2500 if the upward trend support is broken [9]. - However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average and within the previous upward trend channel [9]. Group 3: Fundamental Factors - Optimism surrounding trade agreements and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are influencing gold prices, with expectations of a bullish market during the rate-cutting cycle [7]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently predicted, which could further support gold prices [7]. - The geopolitical landscape and ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical factors that could lead to either a rebound in gold prices or further declines depending on the outcomes [4][6]. Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3324 and $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 and $3357 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $37.80 and $37.40, with resistance at $38.45 and $38.70 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a potential upward trend despite temporary declines due to easing trade tensions and market dynamics [1][5]. Price Movements - On July 24, gold opened at $3388.15 per ounce, reached a high of $3393.15, and then fell to a low of $3351.30, closing at $3368.39, marking a daily decline of $19.76 or 0.58% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a range, with strong support below, suggesting limited downside potential [5][9]. Market Influences - The easing of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Japan, and progress in U.S.-EU trade agreements have reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold, impacting its price [5]. - The outlook for interest rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to support gold prices, as comments from U.S. Treasury officials and President Trump suggest a significant reduction in rates may be forthcoming [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase within a triangular pattern, indicating that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains bullish [5][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3350 and $3335, while resistance levels are at $3382 and $3393 [9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term perspective suggests that gold will continue to be supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, maintaining its status as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices may oscillate between $3000 and $3500 in the second half of the year, with potential for a bullish market in the following year [7].