降息前景

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美元因鲍威尔对降息前景态度谨慎微涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 08:13
美联储主席鲍威尔在昨日讲话中对未来降息前景保持谨慎态度,美元指数(DXY)小幅上涨至97.5。鲍 威尔指出,若过度降息可能导致通胀治理未竟,美联储未来或被迫再次加息;但若利率维持过高过久, 则可能削弱劳动力市场。他强调当前面临就业与通胀"双重风险",并未就10月议息会议是否降息给出明 确信号。 来源:滚动播报 ...
机构:美联储若释放鸽派信号或将提振亚洲股市
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-16 02:28
Core Viewpoint - The dovish guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may exacerbate the weakness of the US dollar, potentially boosting Asian stock markets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of Asian stock markets this year has primarily been driven by local capital [1] - A renewed decline in the US dollar could stimulate capital flows from the US to emerging markets in search of diversified allocations [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - Analysts note that improvements in fundamentals and earnings have significantly contributed to the recent strength of Asian stock markets [1] - Due to trade agreements, earnings expectations for most Asian markets have been notably revised upward for the coming year [1] Group 3: Risks - If the Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that the median interest rate forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, or if Powell downplays the prospect of rate cuts, this could pose a major risk for Asian markets [1]
张尧浠:金价看涨前景加强、周尾留意数据短线调整风险
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 01:36
Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish, supported by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential dovish monetary policy from the U.S. government [1][3]. Price Movements - On August 27, gold opened at $3,393.50 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,373.48, and then rebounded to a high of $3,398.30, closing at $3,396.82, marking a daily increase of $3.32 or 0.098% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a triangular consolidation pattern, with a bias towards upward breakout in the coming days [3]. Market Influences - Concerns regarding President Trump's attempts to dismiss a Federal Reserve board member have heightened market anxiety about the Fed's independence, which supports gold prices [3]. - The market anticipates a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, which is likely to further benefit gold [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has been in a bullish trend since last year, with recent adjustments likely leading to another upward movement [7]. - Key support levels to watch are around $3,270 and $3,220, which may present buying opportunities [7]. - The daily chart indicates that gold remains above the midline and 60-day moving averages, with bullish momentum prevailing despite some indicators suggesting a potential pullback [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, support levels are identified at $3,382 and $3,361, while resistance levels are at $3,407 and $3,418 [10]. - Silver support levels are at $38.35 and $38.15, with resistance at $39.00 and $39.20 [10].
8月26日白银早评:银行系统储备仍有下调空间 银价行情震荡回落
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-26 03:13
Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.25, while spot silver opened at $38.56/oz and is currently around $38.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9338 yuan/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9366 yuan/kg [1] - On August 25, the dollar index rose by 0.73% to close at 98.43, while spot silver fell by 0.69% to $38.55/oz. This decline in silver is attributed to a decrease in optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the dollar index [1] Economic Data - The latest data shows that SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,288.82 tons [2] - Economic indicators released include a 0.6% month-over-month decline in new home sales for July, which was below the expected 0.5% increase. Additionally, the Dallas Fed's business activity index for August came in at -1.8, lower than the expected 0.9, raising concerns about the health of the US economy [3] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $38.87, reached a high of $38.991, and then experienced a strong pullback, with a low of $38.524. The daily close was at $38.543, forming a long upper shadow on a bearish candlestick. Following a reduction in long positions from $37.8, the strategy is to hold positions at $38, with targets set at $38.5, $38.35, and $38.2 for potential exits [4]
张尧浠:降息前景乐观情绪缓解、金价多头受限看涨前景不变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 01:05
Core Viewpoint - The optimistic sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has eased, leading to a focus on upcoming U.S. PCE data for clues on Federal Reserve policy, which has limited the bullish outlook for gold prices [1] Price Movement - On August 25, gold opened at $3,371.93 per ounce, fluctuated between a low of $3,359.65 and a high of $3,375.94, and closed at $3,365.52, marking a decline of $6.71 or 0.2% [3] - The following day, gold continued to show weakness due to a stronger U.S. dollar, but there are still support levels that could lead to a potential rebound [3][6] Dollar Index - The dollar index has returned to a bullish trend, with increased momentum, although it remains below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential upward movement towards the 200-week moving average, which could limit gold's bullish potential [5] Market Indicators - The market is expected to focus on various U.S. economic indicators, including July durable goods orders and consumer confidence index, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [6] - Historical patterns suggest that after a period of consolidation, gold prices are likely to rise again, despite some bearish signals in the indicators [8] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,270 and $3,220, which could present buying opportunities if prices decline [8] - Resistance levels to watch include $3,386 and $3,400, with a potential target of $3,450 for upward movement [10][11]
张尧浠:金价维持震荡调整趋势、关注回踩支撑再度看涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 01:20
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a volatile adjustment trend, with a focus on potential support levels for a bullish outlook in the near future [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices fluctuated, starting at $3349.33 and reaching a high of $3438.67 before dropping to a low of $3325.05, ultimately closing at $3338.50, reflecting a weekly decline of $10.83 or 0.32% [1]. - The market saw a significant weekly volatility of $113.62, indicating a turbulent trading environment [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing strong technical resistance, which has contributed to its recent decline [3][4]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential bearish trend, with risks of a drop to $3000 or $2500 if the upward trend support is broken [9]. - However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the 5-month moving average and within the previous upward trend channel [9]. Group 3: Fundamental Factors - Optimism surrounding trade agreements and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are influencing gold prices, with expectations of a bullish market during the rate-cutting cycle [7]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive easing policies than currently predicted, which could further support gold prices [7]. - The geopolitical landscape and ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical factors that could lead to either a rebound in gold prices or further declines depending on the outcomes [4][6]. Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3324 and $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 and $3357 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $37.80 and $37.40, with resistance at $38.45 and $38.70 [11].
张尧浠:贸易局势缓和、金价维持震荡回踩支撑看涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 00:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a potential upward trend despite temporary declines due to easing trade tensions and market dynamics [1][5]. Price Movements - On July 24, gold opened at $3388.15 per ounce, reached a high of $3393.15, and then fell to a low of $3351.30, closing at $3368.39, marking a daily decline of $19.76 or 0.58% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a range, with strong support below, suggesting limited downside potential [5][9]. Market Influences - The easing of trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Japan, and progress in U.S.-EU trade agreements have reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold, impacting its price [5]. - The outlook for interest rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to support gold prices, as comments from U.S. Treasury officials and President Trump suggest a significant reduction in rates may be forthcoming [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase within a triangular pattern, indicating that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains bullish [5][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3350 and $3335, while resistance levels are at $3382 and $3393 [9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term perspective suggests that gold will continue to be supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, maintaining its status as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices may oscillate between $3000 and $3500 in the second half of the year, with potential for a bullish market in the following year [7].
张尧浠:贸易谈判突转乐观、金价遇阻回落前景仍看涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 00:24
Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, influenced by trade agreements between the US and other partners, which reduced market risk appetite and led to selling pressure [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3431.72 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3438.67, and then fell to a low of $3381.55, closing at $3387.02, with a daily range of $57.12 and a decline of $44.7, or 1.3% [3][5]. - The price is expected to remain in a consolidation phase unless it breaks through resistance levels, with potential support at the 10-day moving average or mid-line [3][9]. Market Influences - The US dollar index is showing a weak trend, which may limit gold's decline, but there are still short-term risks of further price drops [3][5]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and PMI figures, are anticipated to have a mixed impact on the market, leaning towards bearish for gold [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent trade negotiations easing tensions, the overall impact on gold prices is expected to be limited, with a prevailing bullish sentiment due to potential interest rate cuts [5][7]. - The long-term view remains positive for gold, supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential bull market resurgence by the end of the year [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate a recent rebound after touching support levels, although there are signs of weakening bullish momentum [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3383 or $3370, while resistance levels are at $3400 or $3416 [9].
张尧浠:利好三巨头重返市场、金价震荡调整后仍待创新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 23:59
Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a recovery after hitting a low of $3282.56 per ounce, closing at $3357.76, with a weekly fluctuation of $86.16 and a gain of $23.21, or 0.7% [1][3] - The market is influenced by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is supporting gold demand, with indications that there may be three rate cuts next year [8][9] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown signs of recovery but has not exerted sustained pressure on gold prices, with the market reacting to new tariff agreements and geopolitical developments [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend unless this support is broken [11][12] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of further price increases in the coming months, despite potential short-term corrections [9][12]
张尧浠:美经济萎缩降息前景加大、金价年底又显牛市机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 00:27
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a contraction, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a bullish trend in gold prices by the end of the year [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Chicago Business Activity Index for June is at its lowest level since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic contraction [3]. - The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index has contracted for the fifth consecutive month, contributing to a bearish outlook for the dollar [3]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials, including Bostic, anticipate one rate cut this year and three in the following year, suggesting a dovish monetary policy stance [3][6]. - Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chair has further strengthened expectations for rate cuts next year, supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3][6]. Gold Price Movements - Gold prices opened at $3,272.74 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,247.77, and then rebounded to a high of $3,309.12, closing at $3,302.85, marking a daily increase of $30.11 or 0.92% [1]. - The price is expected to test the $3,400 level, with the 60-day moving average acting as a support level [1][10]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently cautious, awaiting key employment data, which is expected to show rising unemployment and decreasing job numbers, generally favorable for gold prices [3][5]. - Despite some bearish indicators, the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold due to anticipated economic conditions and Fed policy [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold has maintained a bullish outlook as it remains above the 5-month moving average, although a drop below this level could signal a potential decline to around $3,000 [8]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation, but the prevailing trend remains upward unless significant support levels are breached [8][10].