利率债2026年投资策略 步步为营 周成华 中信证券研究部 固定收益分析师 2025年11月10日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 核心观点 2 宏观经济：全年GDP增速有望实现4.9%左右，名义GDP增速将抬升。 2026年财政温和扩张的预期下，我国将保持4.9%左右的GDP增速，考虑基数因素及政策节奏，2026年经济增长或呈"前低后高"； 价格因素将有所改善，名义GDP或将提高，自2022年以来首次增速快于实际GDP增速。 政策组合：温和扩张，协同发力。 "十五五"开局之年，2026年财政或将保持温和扩张，赤字率维持4%，新增专项债额度提升至5万亿远左右，新型政策性金融工具或 常态化发行； 货币政策保持适度宽松基调，配合财政政策靠前发力；中期流动性投放维持流动性环境充裕，资金利率平稳运行。 利率：先下后上，把握波段。 宏观政策温和扩张，名义GDP增速持续回升，资产供给和配置需求格局缓和，10年国债到期收益率难以出现趋势性下行行情； 经济增长或呈"前低后高"，信贷和社融增速先回落后企稳，货币政策协同财政政策靠前发力，10年国债到期收益率先下后上。 风险提示： 国内经济复苏变化超预期；金融监管政策超预期；信用 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the recent decline in the bond market, particularly focusing on the reasons behind the drop and future market outlook [4][5] - Despite favorable factors such as weak fundamentals and ample liquidity, the overall bond market has seen more declines than gains, with long-term bonds performing particularly poorly [5][6] - The report highlights that the central bank's bond trading activity is primarily aimed at supporting government debt issuance, which has limited actual benefits for the bond market [6][7] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the supply of long-term bonds has significantly increased this year, with net financing of government bonds reaching 4.97 trillion yuan, of which 1.48 trillion yuan (30%) is from bonds with maturities over 10 years [7] - The report notes that banks are facing challenges in holding long-term bonds due to duration assessments and profit requirements, leading to a situation where some banks are unable to absorb long-term bonds effectively [7][8] - The trading volume of 10-year government bonds has decreased significantly, indicating a decline in market sentiment, with daily trading volumes dropping from around 60 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan [8] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report identifies three key factors that may cap interest rates: real estate data, local government debt management, and bank interest margins [10] - The report suggests that low interest rates are essential for stabilizing the real estate market and managing local government debt, with expectations for more supportive policies to emerge [10][11] - The analysis emphasizes that the balance between monetary easing and fiscal stimulus will be crucial for the bond market, with expectations for a moderate fiscal deficit around 4% and potential expansion of policy financial tools [12] Group 4 - The report highlights that institutional behavior and market narratives are becoming increasingly important in bond market strategies, with a focus on developing trading strategies and understanding market sentiment [13] - It notes that banks are under pressure to manage liabilities effectively, while insurance institutions face challenges due to slow premium growth and new accounting standards [13] - The report concludes that the bond market is likely to experience low interest rates and low volatility, with a projected downward adjustment of around 10 basis points for the 10-year government bond yield [14]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 王哲语证券分析师 SAC No：S1150524070001 周喜证券分析师 核心观点 SAC No：S1150511010017 2025年市场回顾 李济安证券分析师 资金价格：2025年流动性投放工具继续优化，7天逆回购操作利率的政策属性强化，MLF、买断式逆回购、国债买卖等工具的投放时点更有助于稳定资金 面。资金面先紧后松，3月下旬是转折点，此后DR007基本稳定在略高于政策利率的位置。 SAC No：S1150522060001 一级市场：2025年利率债净融资规模增长近40%，国债增发的贡献最多，地方债次之，发行节奏明显靠前。 二级市场：2025年债牛惯性打破，10Y国债收益率在1.6-1.9%区间内震荡，呈现两轮上下行交替的M型走势，其中，一季度资金收紧带动曲线走熊走平； 二季度关税交易带动曲线整体下行；三季度"反内卷"和股债跷跷板带动曲线走熊走陡；四季度以来，央行恢复国债买卖带来债市做多窗口。 以上内容来源于渤海证券研究所2025年12月01日发布的证券研究报告《渤海证券研究所晨会纪要》 重要提示： 通过本公众订阅号发布的 ...