数据显示，英国和日本正在响应投资者需求，以增加短期借款，这种战略转变使政府的利息支付降低， 但同时使它们在债务展期时面临潜在的高成本利率波动的风险。今年，英国大幅削减了长期债券的销售 至创纪录的低点，目前正在考虑扩大其超短期票据市场。在日本，在长期债券遭遇抛售后，政府正在听 取增加短期债务发行的呼吁。瑞穗 证券策略师Evelyne表示："这么做的风险在于，如果利率走高，你的 利息支出会突然大幅增加。"这些增长也反映了通胀压力以及传统买家对长期债务需求的减弱。几十年 来，英国的收益 养老基金购买长期债券以匹配其负债，这使得英国能够将其发行债券的平均期限延长 到远远超过同行。而现在，其中许多计划现在正在逐步结束。 ...

Core Insights - Global public debt is projected to exceed $111 trillion by December 2025, with U.S. federal debt reaching $38 trillion, highlighting the unsustainable nature of current debt levels [1] - Pensions are increasingly invested in government bonds, creating a cycle where citizens are both borrowers and lenders, with their retirement funds tied to government debt [3][4] - The structure of China's national debt is predominantly held by domestic banks and the central bank, with foreign investors holding only 2.4%, contrasting sharply with the U.S. where foreign investors hold 30% [4] Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. government is expected to pay $1 trillion in debt interest in the 2025 fiscal year, which will escalate to $13.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly impacting taxpayers [8] - Interest payments are projected to consume 3.3% of GDP by 2025, surpassing defense spending, indicating a critical financial imbalance [8] - China's debt interest pressure is manageable, but local government debt poses structural risks, with some counties spending 40% of their revenue on interest payments [11] Pension Fund Performance - The national social security fund's investment portfolio includes 40% in equity funds and over 20% in government bonds, exposing pensions to interest rate fluctuations [6] - A significant drop in bond prices due to rising interest rates could lead to substantial losses in pension funds, affecting retirees' financial stability [6][13] - Historical data indicates that a 1% decline in average returns over the next decade could reduce pension replacement rates significantly, impacting retirees' income [13] Systemic Risks and Future Adjustments - Systemic risks are increasing due to political gridlock over debt ceilings in the U.S., high debt levels in Japan, and slow progress in addressing local government debt in China [11] - The potential for a debt crisis is heightened by interconnected global financial markets, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis [11] - Future adjustments to the debt system may manifest as gradual inflation or sudden welfare cuts, impacting the purchasing power of pensions [14] Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to build "anti-debt asset portfolios" by investing in gold and REITs, which typically have a negative correlation with government bonds [15] - Increasing the proportion of non-monetary assets in investment portfolios can help mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [15] - Developing skills in recession-resistant sectors can provide more stable income during economic downturns, as evidenced by lower unemployment rates in certain professions during past crises [15]

Core Viewpoint - The key change in asset allocation for investors in 2023 compared to 2024 is an increase in risk appetite, driven by a strong performance in equity markets and upward pressure on nominal interest rates due to rising commodity prices [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April 2025, equity assets have strengthened, leading to a diversion of funds from bond funds [1] - The rise in equity markets indicates a marginal improvement in macroeconomic conditions, while collective price increases in commodities have contributed to upward pressure on nominal interest rates [1] - The rally in cyclical and energy stocks has placed significant pressure on the bond market [1] Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The central bank maintains a relatively loose monetary market environment, suggesting that interest rate volatility risks are manageable and bond market risks are limited [1] - Three core factors driving the bond market remain unchanged: 1. Price increases in upstream industrial products will not quickly transmit to downstream sectors 2. The real estate sector is still bottoming out, and a structural asset shortage persists 3. The monetary market environment remains accommodative, which is favorable for the bond market [1] - Recent economic data shows signs of recovery, with expectations that upstream industrial prices will eventually lead to a broad price index increase, which is already reflected in the recent stock and bond markets [1] Group 3: Fixed Income Investment Strategy - For the second half of the year, long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are expected to remain core assets in the bond market, with a low probability of unilateral interest rate increases [2] - When approaching the upper limit of the interest rate range, it may be advisable to extend duration and invest in long-term bonds [2] - In the credit bond sector, the current 4-5 year high-grade credit spread is at a historically low level, suggesting a strategy of shortening duration and selectively investing in lower-rated bonds [2] - Convertible bonds in sectors such as photovoltaic, solid-state batteries, and banks are recommended, as these sectors benefit from multiple favorable factors and the valuations of these convertible bonds are closely correlated with the performance of their underlying stocks [2]

Group 1 - The global banking industry is experiencing increasing anxiety, indicating potential systemic risks in the future [1] - Several regional financial institutions have reported significant losses, such as Japan's Norinchukin Bank, which posted a record net loss of 1.8078 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2024 due to misjudgments in interest rate movements [1] - The volatility in long-term bond rates is affecting various regions, including Taiwan, where multiple insurance companies have faced substantial losses due to rising overseas interest rates [1] Group 2 - Major institutions express pessimism about the U.S. economy, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning of potential cracks in the bond market due to excessive fiscal spending and quantitative easing [2] - Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser highlighted a three-phase impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating that the current phase involves businesses pausing investments and hiring due to rising uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Influential global banks, despite strong performance, are increasing provisions for credit losses, reflecting heightened caution regarding future economic uncertainties [3] - JPMorgan set aside $3.3 billion for potential loan losses, a 75% increase from the previous year, while HSBC raised its expected credit loss provisions by $202 million for Q1 2025 [3] - The concentration of the U.S. banking sector has significantly increased, with the top four banks accounting for 44% of the industry's profits, raising concerns about systemic risks if any major bank encounters issues [3] Group 4 - Although risks are currently concentrated overseas, it is crucial for China to proactively mitigate potential impacts, especially with low domestic bond rates [4] - The Chinese government is taking measures to stabilize the economy and enhance the resilience of financial institutions, such as increasing capital for state-owned banks and facilitating mergers among smaller banks [4] - The overall sentiment among international banks regarding future economic performance is one of uncertainty, which is particularly concerning given the current global economic weakness and escalating geopolitical tensions [5]