石油石化 2025 年 11 月 23 日 石油石化周报 俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大。 据 ifind 数据，2025 年 11 月 14 日-2025 年 11 月 21 日，WTI 原油期 货收盘价下跌 3.22%，布伦特油期货价下跌 2.77%。地缘政治方面， 俄乌"28 点"和平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, leading to a continued downward trend in oil prices. WTI crude futures fell by 1.00% and Brent crude futures by 1.21% during the period from October 10 to October 17, 2025 [6]. - OPEC's latest monthly market report maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, predicting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Geopolitical tensions have decreased, resulting in a downward trend in oil prices. The easing of risks is reflected in the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and calls for further implementation of the ceasefire by the UN [6]. - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which is impacting economic operations and creating uncertainty regarding fiscal policies [6]. - The report suggests that while short-term oil price risks may persist, the long-term outlook remains anchored by fundamental demand growth [7]. Fluorochemicals - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, leading to continued price increases. R32 refrigerant prices remain high, and R134a prices are also on the rise due to supply constraints and increasing domestic demand [6][7]. - The report highlights that the production of second-generation refrigerants is declining, while third-generation refrigerants have limited quota increases, stabilizing market competition [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing an upward cycle, supported by improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report recommends focusing on companies like Nanda Optoelectronics and Shanghai Xinyang [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Views - The Israeli government's approval of the Gaza ceasefire agreement has led to a continued decline in oil prices, with WTI crude futures dropping by 4.15% and Brent crude by 3.53% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the U.S. halting diplomatic engagement with Venezuela and potential military escalations, which could disrupt Venezuelan oil supplies [6]. - OPEC+ plans a cautious production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November 2025, but Russia advocates for maintaining current production levels to avoid downward pressure on oil prices [6]. - The EIA has raised its short-term price forecasts for WTI to $65 per barrel and Brent to $68.64 per barrel, while also slightly increasing U.S. oil production expectations to 13.53 million barrels per day [6]. - The report highlights a tightening supply in the fluorochemical sector, with prices for popular refrigerants like R32 and R134a remaining stable at high levels due to production constraints and increasing demand from the air conditioning and automotive sectors [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, noting a significant drop in both WTI and Brent crude prices following the ceasefire agreement [6]. - It tracks OPEC+ production strategies and U.S. oil production forecasts, indicating a cautious approach to increasing supply amidst fluctuating demand [6][7]. Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical market is experiencing a tight supply for popular refrigerants, with stable high prices due to production limitations and recovering demand in the domestic market [6]. - The report notes a projected increase in production for household air conditioners and automotive refrigerants, driven by government incentives [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly on companies with resilient earnings such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, it recommends companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook due to inventory reduction trends and domestic substitution [7].

Core Viewpoint - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing strong demand for refined oil during the travel peak season, leading to a short-term bullish fluctuation in oil prices. However, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on international oil prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Oil and Petrochemical Sector - As of July 4-11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures closed up by 3.05%, while Brent oil futures rose by 3.09% [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, and Iran's cautious approach to nuclear negotiations, are contributing to short-term support for oil prices [2]. - The U.S. saw an increase in commercial crude oil inventories, but gasoline and jet fuel stocks decreased, indicating strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season [2]. - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with Saudi Arabia planning a final monthly increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September [2]. - There are concerns that after the peak season, international oil prices may face greater downward pressure due to accelerated production increases by OPEC+ [2][4]. Fluorochemical Sector - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, with prices remaining high. R32 prices continue to rise, while R134a prices are stable [3]. - The supply side is constrained due to policy restrictions, while demand from the automotive and air conditioning sectors is strong, supported by national subsidy policies [3]. - In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.62 million and 15.65 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [3]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing, while the production and quotas for third-generation refrigerants are locked in, leading to a high concentration of supply and supporting continued price increases [3]. Investment Recommendations - The oil and petrochemical sector is recommended for attention due to ongoing geopolitical risks and strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season, although medium-term concerns about price declines exist [4]. - The fluorochemical sector is also highlighted, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics driven by government subsidies and strong downstream demand [4]. - Companies to watch in the oil sector include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, while in the fluorochemical sector, focus on leading companies in third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of conflicts related to nuclear issues between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent oil futures increasing by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2025 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, have contributed to market volatility and concerns over oil supply [6]. - The report highlights that while there are short-term price increases due to geopolitical risks, there are long-term concerns regarding oversupply in the oil market [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report notes that the geopolitical situation has led to a rise in oil prices, with specific data indicating a 13.81% increase in WTI and a 12.80% increase in Brent prices during the specified period [6]. - The U.S. has seen a notable increase in gasoline and jet fuel demand as the summer travel season approaches, despite a current oversupply in gasoline and distillate inventories [6]. - OPEC's production increase in May was below expectations, alleviating some concerns about oversupply in the short term [6]. Fluorochemical - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to boost demand for air conditioning, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 29.3% and 22.8% year-on-year in June and July 2025, respectively [6]. - Prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R134a remain high due to strong demand and supply constraints [6]. - The report suggests that the supply of second-generation refrigerants will continue to decrease, while the production of third-generation refrigerants is limited, supporting price stability [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions, suggesting a potential rebound in the industry index [7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in semiconductor materials as the market shows signs of recovery [7].