黄金涨疯了，你发现没？ 按老思路，黄金这么涨，早该是通胀燎原了。 可翻遍2025年的全球通胀数据，美国、欧洲、中国，全 都温温和和。 怪不怪？ 现实是，通胀没抬头，国际金价却像坐上了火箭，从3月破3000美元，到10月破4000美元，再到年末直逼 4600美元，创下自1979年石油危机以来的最大年度涨幅。 这背后，是一场静悄悄却颠覆性的逻辑巨变。 老剧本已死，新逻辑登场。 驱动黄金的引擎，早就从"抗通胀"换成了"防系统失灵"。 拆解这场暴涨，第一个关键推力是全球债务大山压得人喘不过气。 到2025年10月下旬，美国国债余额已轻松越过38万亿美元大 关，而从37万亿到38万亿，仅仅用了两个多月。 这不仅是纸面上的天文数字，它意味着国家信用被严重透支。 当政府的"欠 条"（国债）满天飞时，人们自然开始寻找那个唯一不欠任何人钱的资产，黄金。 更关键的风向标是各国央行的行动。 根据欧洲中央银行2025年6月的报告，黄金在全球央行储备中的份额升至20%，超过欧元的 16%，成为仅次于美元的第二大储备资产。 全球央行已经连续三年年均净购买黄金超过1000吨，这种"扫货"般的购买为金价构成 了最坚实的结构性托底。 第二个核 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that even with a new Federal Reserve chairman appointed by Trump, the desire for interest rate cuts next year is unlikely to be realized due to a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's power structure, debunking the misconception that a change in chairmanship equates to rate cuts [2] - The December meeting may witness three or more dissenting votes, indicating a potential unprecedented decision-making process within the Federal Reserve that relies solely on majority votes [2] - The historical stability of the Federal Reserve has been based on consensus and unified communication, but the emergence of dissenting votes suggests a loss of this consensus, making it difficult for the new chairman to unilaterally decide on rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The article introduces the "7:5" voting model, where 7 votes are in favor and 5 against, highlighting the potential instability in decision-making as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires a simple majority of 7 votes out of 12 [3] - Increased volatility in financial markets is anticipated as the predictability of policies and decision-making paths becomes uncertain, leading to heightened market reactions to Federal Reserve communications [3] - The article warns of institutional risks as the market focuses on immediate economic indicators while overlooking the potential for significant changes in the Federal Reserve's structure and decision-making processes [3]

Group 1 - India's net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell to a historical low of $3.53 billion for the fiscal year 2024-2025, a 96.5% decrease from nearly $10 billion in the previous fiscal year [1] - The gross FDI in India increased by 13.7% year-on-year to $81 billion, but significant capital outflows and profit repatriation led to a near-zero net value [1] - Domestic companies in India accelerated their overseas investments, with outbound direct investment rising from $17 billion to $29 billion, indicating a dual outflow of capital [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of India's statement suggests that the growth in gross FDI indicates the attractiveness of the Indian market, while the high withdrawal rate reflects increased market liquidity [2] - However, this perspective is challenged by the ongoing perception of India as a "graveyard for foreign capital," with many foreign companies facing substantial fines and regulatory challenges [3] - Compared to India, countries like Vietnam and Indonesia have maintained stable foreign investment inflows, attributed to a more favorable regulatory environment and higher economic freedom index scores [3] Group 3 - There are concerns regarding new regulatory measures by the Indian government aimed at foreign investments, which could significantly impact sectors like e-commerce and pharmaceuticals [4] - Despite India's large population, rapid GDP growth, and potential in sectors like digital economy and green energy, the sustainability of foreign capital attraction depends on the stability and credibility of its market [4] - The ability of India to transition from being a "transit point" for capital to a "destination" relies on establishing a stable and trustworthy institutional framework [4]

不是没有人投，而是撤得太快。 最近，印度创下一个"历史新低"。7月底，印度央行发布数据显示，2025年5月，印度净外国直接投资 (FDI)仅为3500万美元，环比暴跌99%，同比暴跌98%。 全年数据同样不乐观。2024-2025财年，印度净FDI数据降至3.53亿美元，较上一财年的近100亿美元骤 降96.5%，创下历史新低。 问题的关键，不是不投，而是撤得太快。虽然2025财年印度外资直接投资总额(毛FDI)同比增长13.7%， 达到810亿美元，但在同一时间段，外资撤资与利润汇出规模大幅攀升，印度本土企业对外投资也达290 亿美元，双重流出导致净值几近归零。 孟买金融区 资本为何加速撤离？ 首先是热门IPO引发大规模套现潮。公开报告显示，2025财年PE/VC退出总额达到267亿美元，其中，现 代汽车印度公司上市后，母公司将持股从100%降至82.5%；印度线上配送平台Swiggy的一位主要外资股 东通过出售股份实现套现超过20亿美元。 其次是本土企业对外资本输出激增。印度本土企业在全球供应链重构背景下加快"走出去"的步伐，全年 对外直接投资从前一财年的170亿美元飙升至290亿美元，越来越多资金流向海 ...