[Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月07日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260107 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.公募费改三阶段全面落地，差异化安排持续优化行业生态——资本市场聚焦（十二） ➢ 2.招商银行（600036）：业绩寻底，红利与价值属性兼备——公司简评报告 ➢ 1.商务部：加强两用物项对日本出口管制 ➢ 2.央行部署2026年重点工作 1.重点推荐 1.1.公募费改三阶段全面落地，差异化安排持续优化行业生态 ——资本市场聚焦（十二） | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 公募费改三阶段全面落地，差异 ...

今日盘中，券商板块强势拉升，截至发稿，证券ETF富国（515850）盘中涨幅高达3.15%。成分股 中，华林证券、华安证券涨停，东北证券涨超6%，财达证券涨超5%，东方财富、华泰证券等均涨超 4%，其余成分股均表现突出。 消息面上，证监会修订发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》，新规自2026年1月1日起 施行。机构分析，本次销售端改革有望降低投资者成本，引导投资者长期持有，引导代销机构重视保有 规模，有利于基金业生态的改善，看好券商板块开年布局机会，短期看业绩预告和政策端有望带来催 化。 证券ETF富国（515850）紧密跟踪中证全指证券公司指数，成分股以大型券商为主，兼纳中小型券 商，在市场回暖期，大市值标的或能够发挥突出的龙头效应，小而美的潜力股则具备较充足的盈利弹 性。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for the Chinese securities industry, focusing on deepening functional positioning and high-quality development, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions, international expansion, and technological innovation, particularly through AI applications [1][2]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The year marks a critical phase for mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, with major firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities merging to form Guotai Haitong Securities, and other significant consolidations such as Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Guotai Haitong leading in net profit, and Guolian Minsheng's ranking improving significantly from around 40th to the top 20 [3]. - New merger cases are emerging, such as CICC's plan to merge with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, potentially creating a new entity with over 1 trillion yuan in total assets [3]. Industry Integration Logic - Two main integration strategies are evident: resource consolidation under the same actual controller and market-driven mergers aimed at enhancing national influence [4]. - Analysts suggest that resource integration may become the most important way for securities firms to quickly enhance scale and comprehensive strength [4]. Classification Evaluation Reform - A significant revision of the classification evaluation for securities firms is underway, emphasizing the need for firms to enhance their functional roles and professional capabilities [5][6]. - The new regulations aim to shift focus from revenue expansion to improving operational efficiency and professional skills, thereby enhancing overall industry competitiveness [5]. Margin Trading Market - The margin trading market is heating up, with a record balance of 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a 36.6% increase from the beginning of the year [7]. - Several firms have raised their margin trading limits, and a price war on interest rates has begun, with some firms offering rates below 4% [8][9]. Investment Banking and Technology - The securities industry is adapting to a new era of "hard technology," with reforms aimed at providing more inclusive financing paths for tech companies [10][11]. - Securities firms are establishing research institutes focused on emerging industries and enhancing their service capabilities through collaboration and talent development [11]. AI Integration - The adoption of AI technologies is rapidly transforming the industry, with applications expanding across various business functions, significantly improving efficiency [12][13]. - Firms are moving towards an "AI-native" model, enhancing client engagement and operational management through AI tools [12]. Internationalization of Securities Firms - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is accelerating, with a focus on comprehensive service capabilities and participation in global market competition [14][15]. - This trend is driven by the growing demand for cross-border services and the strategic goal of building first-class investment banks [14]. Asset Management Transformation - The public offering process for asset management is at a turning point, with firms reassessing their positioning in the broader asset management landscape [16][17]. - The industry is witnessing a decline in the rush for public fund licenses, with many firms withdrawing applications, indicating a shift in focus towards existing business optimization [16]. Impact of Fund Fee Reforms - The implementation of public fund fee reforms is pushing securities firms to enhance their research and wealth management capabilities, with a notable decline in commission revenues [18]. - Firms are transitioning towards a buyer advisory model, focusing on asset management and providing comprehensive solutions rather than merely selling products [18]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory signals indicate a potential easing of capital requirements for high-quality institutions, aimed at improving capital utilization efficiency [19]. - Analysts suggest that enhancing leverage and capital efficiency could drive growth in high-value capital-intensive businesses [19]. Name Changes Reflecting Strategic Shifts - A wave of name changes among securities firms signifies strategic realignments and resource restructuring following mergers and acquisitions [20][21]. - These changes reflect deeper integration and the influence of new stakeholders, indicating a shift in strategic focus and operational capabilities [20].

Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, over 2,900 fund products announced dividends totaling more than 180 billion yuan, representing a nearly 30% increase compared to the same period last year [3][6] - The "fixed income+" funds showed strong performance in Q3, with over 90% of approximately 3,700 products achieving positive returns, and some funds rising over 33% [3][5] Fund Performance - Q3 saw public fund dividends exceeding 55.5 billion yuan, with equity funds contributing 11.6 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year [6][20] - The total dividend for the year reached 182.5 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-on-year, reflecting improved profitability driven by a recovering A-share market [6][20] ETF Market Dynamics - In September, over 110 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs, marking a significant monthly net inflow [7][10] - The total market size of ETFs reached 5.63 trillion yuan by the end of September, with stock ETFs surpassing 3.7 trillion yuan and bond ETFs nearing 700 billion yuan [8][9] New Fund Issuance - September 2025 saw a record high in new fund issuance, with 201 new public funds established, totaling 167.3 billion units [13][20] - The year-to-date issuance of new funds increased by over 30% compared to the previous year, with a notable rise in equity and bond funds [20] Notable Fund Performances - Several large-scale funds achieved returns exceeding 100% over the past year, with some funds showing gains of over 150% [18][19] - The top-performing funds included those focused on advanced manufacturing and carbon neutrality themes, reflecting strong market interest in these sectors [19] Regulatory and Market Developments - The public fund fee reform is accelerating, with a focus on reducing fees for money market funds [17] - The first foreign consumer REIT, Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT, was successfully listed, marking a significant step in the internationalization of China's REIT market [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese fund distribution market is undergoing significant reshuffling, with a pronounced "Matthew Effect" where stronger institutions continue to gain market share while weaker ones fall behind [1][12]. Market Overview - As of mid-2025, the total equity fund holding scale of the top 100 distribution institutions reached 5.14 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.12% [1]. - The non-monetary market fund holding scale surpassed 10.21 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.86% [1]. - The stock index fund scale rose to 1.95 trillion yuan, marking a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.39%, becoming a key driver for overall growth [1]. Institutional Performance - Among 57 brokerage distribution institutions, a significant divergence in performance is observed, with some institutions rising strongly while others are lagging [1]. - Leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities consistently rank in the top three across equity funds, non-monetary market funds, and stock index funds [4][11]. Growth Rates - Guotai Junan Securities reported a remarkable quarter-on-quarter growth of 78.47% in equity funds, 77.15% in non-monetary market funds, and 86% in stock index funds [6][7]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and CITIC Jianan Securities also demonstrated strong growth, with CICC's non-monetary market funds increasing by 61.04% and CITIC Jianan's equity funds growing by 25.9% [7][11]. Declining Institutions - Eight brokerages showed a decline across all three core indicators, indicating a worrying trend for their competitiveness [7][11]. - Dongxing Securities experienced a significant drop in non-monetary market funds by 18.99%, alongside declines in equity and stock index funds [8][9]. Structural Changes - A notable structural change in the brokerage industry is observed, where the growth rate of non-monetary market funds outpaces that of equity funds for most institutions [11]. - The concentration in the stock index fund sector remains high, with 23 securities companies having over 10 billion yuan in scale, and six exceeding 50 billion yuan [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the ongoing public fund reforms will further strengthen the market dominance of large internet platforms and leading brokerages, while smaller firms that fail to adapt may face increased pressure [12].

Core Insights - The overall scale of fund distribution institutions in China has steadily increased due to improved market conditions and enhanced investor confidence, with the top 100 distribution institutions holding a total of 5.14 trillion yuan in equity funds, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.12% [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant reshuffle, with a pronounced "Matthew Effect" where stronger institutions are gaining more market share while weaker ones are falling behind [1][12] Fund Distribution Market Overview - As of mid-2025, the total scale of non-monetary market funds surpassed 10.21 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.86% [1] - The scale of stock index funds rose to 1.95 trillion yuan, marking a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.39%, becoming a key driver for overall growth [1] Performance of Major Securities Firms - Leading firms such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan Securities consistently rank among the top three across equity funds, non-monetary market funds, and stock index funds [4][11] - CITIC Securities reported an equity fund scale of 142.1 billion yuan, non-monetary market fund scale of 239.7 billion yuan, and stock index fund scale of 122.3 billion yuan [4] - Guotai Junan Securities showed significant growth with equity funds increasing by 78.47%, non-monetary market funds by 77.15%, and stock index funds by 86% [6][7] Growth Disparities Among Institutions - There is a notable divergence in growth rates among securities firms, with some like China International Capital Corporation and CITIC Jianan Securities showing strong growth, while others like Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities are experiencing declines across key metrics [7][9][11] - Eight firms have shown a comprehensive decline in their core indicators, indicating a competitive disadvantage [7][9] Structural Changes in the Market - A structural shift is observed where the growth rate of non-monetary market funds is surpassing that of equity funds, suggesting a strategic pivot by firms towards fixed-income products [11] - The concentration in the stock index fund sector remains high, with 23 firms having over 10 billion yuan in scale, and six firms exceeding 50 billion yuan [11] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing reforms in public funds will further strengthen the market position of large firms, while smaller firms that fail to adapt may face increased pressure [12]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the FOMC meeting and US-China negotiations, highlighting a new wave of technological revolution as a key investment theme [6][8]. - The global stock market showed an overall increase, with the A-share Sci-Tech 50 index leading the gains, while commodities like gold and oil also saw price increases [6][7]. - The report suggests that the domestic equity market remains favorable, particularly in sectors such as technology, consumption, gold, and non-ferrous metals, with expectations for strong performance in these areas [8]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Ningbo Bank - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue of 37.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.91%, and a net profit of 14.77 billion yuan, up 8.23% year-on-year [12][13]. - The bank's total assets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, marking a 14.39% year-on-year growth, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% [12][13]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q2 was 1.72%, showing a decrease of 11.98 basis points year-on-year, attributed to the impact of interest rate adjustments and a shift in the composition of interest-earning assets [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Overview - Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline in overall performance, with a total revenue of 1,253.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 2.59% year-on-year [30][31]. - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with innovative drugs showing a revenue growth of 39.61%, while the overall industry faced challenges [31][32]. - The outlook for the pharmaceutical sector is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for recovery driven by improved payment environments for high-value products and a normalization of medical services [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The third phase of the public fund sales fee reform has officially started, aiming to optimize sales fee rates and reduce investor transaction costs. This reform is projected to benefit investors by over 50 billion yuan annually [4][6][7]. - The adjustments in redemption fees and sales service fees are expected to enhance fund stability and promote long-term investment behaviors among investors [5][6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated commission structures to encourage sales institutions to focus more on individual investors and equity funds, fostering a positive cycle of sales and institutional investment [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Fee Reform - The new regulations will lower subscription and redemption fee rates across various fund types, with maximum rates set at 0.8% for equity funds, 0.5% for mixed funds, and 0.3% for bond funds [4]. - Redemption fees will now be fully included in fund assets, simplifying the fee structure and reducing the incentive for rapid trading, which enhances fund stability [5][10]. - Sales service fees for non-money market funds will only be charged in the first year, significantly lowering investor costs and encouraging long-term investment habits [6]. Market Impact - The report notes that the first two phases of the fee reform have already shown positive results, with a total annual benefit to investors exceeding 500 billion yuan expected from all three phases combined [7]. - The commission rate for trading has decreased significantly, with a projected drop of 34% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, indicating a more favorable trading environment for investors [8]. Recommendations - The report suggests that the public fund industry is poised for high-quality development under the new regulations, which will positively stimulate brokerage business growth. It recommends focusing on opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and innovative licensing [7].

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for the industry, categorizing it as "Neutral" with an expected relative performance of -5% to 10% against the benchmark index [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of independent and objective analysis in reflecting the researcher's viewpoints, ensuring that the analysis is not influenced by compensation structures [5]. - The analysis is conducted by a qualified analyst with two years of experience in non-banking research, indicating a level of expertise in the sector [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Rating Standards**: The report outlines the rating standards based on the relative performance of the industry or company stock against the market, using the CSI 300 index as a benchmark for A-shares [9]. - **Analyst Commitment**: The report highlights the analyst's commitment to diligent practice and the independence of the research, ensuring that the findings are presented clearly and accurately [5]. - **Company Information**: The report is published by China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd., which provides contact information for various regional offices, indicating a structured approach to client engagement [10].

Industry Overview - The securities industry is experiencing increased market volatility, leading to adjustments in the brokerage sector. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.8% during the week of September 1-5. The non-bank financial index dropped by 5%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.2 percentage points [2][3]. - The brokerage index saw a decline of 5.3%, also underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.5 percentage points. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage index is 1.46x, slightly down from the previous week, and is at the 44th percentile over the past decade [2][3]. Market Activity - Despite a slight decrease in trading volume, the average daily stock trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets remained high at 25,696 billion yuan, down 13% week-on-week. This marks the end of three consecutive weeks of significant growth, yet the trading volume is still comparable to the high point in October 2024 [4]. - In terms of new fund issuance, August saw the issuance of 472 million shares for equity funds (up 791% year-on-year and 33% month-on-month), 144 million shares for mixed funds (up 177% year-on-year and 41% month-on-month), and 348 million shares for bond funds (down 12% year-on-year and 24% month-on-month) [5]. Financing Activities - In the equity financing sector, 21 companies raised a total of 23.5 billion yuan in August, representing a 71% year-on-year increase but a 65% month-on-month decrease. The initial public offering (IPO) scale was 4.1 billion yuan (down 23% year-on-year and 83% month-on-month), while the private placement scale reached 18.2 billion yuan (up 209% year-on-year and down 38% month-on-month) [6]. - Cumulatively, from January to August, the equity financing scale increased by 304% year-on-year, with IPO financing up by 55% and refinancing up by 367%, including a 531% increase in private placements and a 44% increase in convertible bond financing [6]. Margin Financing - As of September 5, the margin trading balance in the two markets reached 22,795 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase month-on-month. This marks the second consecutive month of growth, accounting for 2.68% of the total market capitalization of A-shares. The financing balance rose to 22,642 billion yuan (up 0.8% month-on-month), while the securities lending balance was 15.3 billion yuan (down 3.5% month-on-month) [6]. Investment Recommendations - Despite a slight decline in market trading volume, trading activity remains robust. Current valuations are considered reasonable, and brokerage performance is expected to continue recovering in the third quarter. With the implementation of new public fund sales regulations, the public fund industry is entering a phase of high-quality development. The recommendation is to maintain an "overweight" rating on the securities industry and to focus on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes, such as Zhinan Compass [7].